New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time

[HerbPean]

+1.26-1.50
thanks

That's taken by SimplisticStu.

+1.51 to +1.75 perhaps?

Sold thanks

[1714719418]

1714719418

[1714719418]

1714719418

[SimplisticStu]

+1.26-1.50
thanks

That's taken by SimplisticStu.

+1.51 to +1.75 perhaps?

Sold thanks

Sowwy 

[jmumich]

I'll take 1.76-2% if it is available.

Live tracker remains up. Hopefully some new data and analysis as well during this period. The data was a bit screwed up on the last day of the last difficulty period as I hadn't set things up to handle a negative difficulty adjustment properly. So I'm 0-2, first time I missed the daylight saving change, this time wasn't prepared for negative adjustment. Hopefully third time is a charm.

If there's anything you'd like to see let me know. I'm constantly tinkering with it and try to leave notes as to what I'm doing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

[Korbman]

I'll take +2.76% to +3.00%

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to  -0.50 coinits

2 spots and 2x payoff 0  

+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean
+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee


+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI


Amph

it will rise,  but i want to stay neutral -0.5 +0.5

you can take -0.25 to -0.01

you can take 0.00  hard to hit but you get .2 coins

you can take  +0.01 to +0.25


but -0.5 to +0.5  is out side the rules

note I sent a pm asking for a correction from Amph

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-1.67%)  BTC/USD = 263.97

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,937,913,305 (-1.67%)
Adjust time:   After 1841 Blocks, About 12.7 days
Hashrate(?):   344,144,558 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   23:15 (1.6 minutes ago)



1841 blocks to go.

jmumich   3rd crack at google sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

very early but +6.34%   with 175 made against 165 expected

A lot of people  wondered why we got cold right at the end.  maybe some one turned 10ph off the last day and put it back on today.

people keep an eye out on google sheets you have a while to pick the 29th.  maybe this is a big bounce back jump.

[notlist3d]

I'm hoping 6 turns out to be high.  But hard to tell this early.  Once next gen chips come out I think we will skyrocket.  So far everyone is very very quiet about their chips it seems.

And I could be out of it but I wonder if litecoin difficulty of "Mar 19 2015    34,843    -14.53%    997,667 MH/s" was anyone switching over to BTC from Scrypt gear.

[jmumich]

I'm hoping 6 turns out to be high.  But hard to tell this early.  Once next gen chips come out I think we will skyrocket.  So far everyone is very very quiet about their chips it seems.

And I could be out of it but I wonder if litecoin difficulty of "Mar 19 2015    34,843    -14.53%    997,667 MH/s" was anyone switching over to BTC from Scrypt gear.

It's real early - if today (3/24) is like 3/14 (129 blocks solved), we're right back to 0%. In another 48 hours or so we should have a good idea +/- 3% of where we'll be based on the way things have been going.

[jmumich]

A lot of people  wondered why we got cold right at the end.  maybe some one turned 10ph off the last day and put it back on today.

The difficulty drop itself could have been enough to cause some to turn back on.

In addition, I don't think a single 164 block day is any reason to think that a large amount of hashing power came on. We'll know more in a couple days. That's why the predictions that include data from the previous difficulty period are more accurate. I'm trying to work on one of those, but it's a bit tough estimating something that (1) has natural statistical variance, and (2) has actual and somewhat unpredictable growth (positive or negative).

[Amph]

it will rise,  but i want to stay neutral -0.5 +0.5

For reward purposes you might want to pick a 0.25% range that's not taken. I think +0.01 to +0.25 and -0.01 to -0.25 are available, so I would assume +0.01 to +0.25 since you mentioned "will rise". Let me know if you want a different one.

-5.05 to -5.30%

I'll adjust that to -5.01 to -5.25% to fit within the rules.

yeah i picked +0.01 + 0.25, i thought it was possible to have a range from - to +

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean
+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee


+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI


Amph  thanks for correction

[adaseb]

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

[philipma1957]

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211


 It Is (+9.24%) and price is 258.  Ugh

[adaseb]

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211


 It Is (+9.24%) and price is 258.  Ugh

Are these the S5 Batch 5 miners being powered up? I didn't think they sold that many of them, only maybe 300 units or so.

[notlist3d]

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211


 It Is (+9.24%) and price is 258.  Ugh

Are these the S5 Batch 5 miners being powered up? I didn't think they sold that many of them, only maybe 300 units or so.

If anything I think they should be powered down.  People were getting shipping notices.

Yea if +10 that is a lot more then we wanted.

[valkir]

Wondering how bitcoin wisdom work. If you check next difficulty is -0.67% (24-03-2015 9:30) and on the google sheet it is +9.79%

Who is the better to guess??

[suchmoon]

Wondering how bitcoin wisdom work. If you check next difficulty is -0.67% (24-03-2015 9:30) and on the google sheet it is +9.79%

Who is the better to guess??

Bitcoinwisdom includes the blocks from the previous cycle into their estimate, and they don't seem to be adjusting for the difficulty change (although I could be wrong about that). In general they are wrong most of the time until the last couple of days, but then again - all estimates are like that.

[philipma1957]

yeah  Most estimates suck.

  I like to blend bitcoinwisdom and the googlesheet.

 more often then not they middle.

[edonkey]

Maybe the recent spikes are just luck? Slush's pool just did 10 Blocks in the last 12 hours, with only 12 Ph/s.

The price is down 14% for the week. It's $248 at the time of this writing.

Downward price pressure and no new efficiency hardware should continue to apply force against the difficulty.

[suchmoon]

Maybe the recent spikes are just luck? Slush's pool just did 10 Blocks in the last 12 hours, with only 12 Ph/s.

The price is down 14% for the week. It's $248 at the time of this writing.

Downward price pressure and no new efficiency hardware should continue to apply force against the difficulty.

AntPool had some massive luck today too. I wonder if the little extra BTC is also having an effect on the price. This should all sort itself out in the next week or so.