New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time

[suchmoon]

But of course even if it's variance (i.e. the hashrate spikes and then drops) it's still going to have an effect on difficulty. See a couple of spikes from the recent past, green is the 2016-block/difficulty line. Bow to my Paint skillz.

[jmumich]

But of course even if it's variance (i.e. the hashrate spikes and then drops) it's still going to have an effect on difficulty. See a couple of spikes from the recent past, green is the 2016-block/difficulty line. Bow to my Paint skillz.

That's exactly right ... even if you chalk it up to luck, there would have to be an equal amount of bad luck to cancel it out. However, I think if luck causes part of a difficulty increase, difficulty is likely to correct the next period (holding all else equal except for luck), unless there's an equal amount of luck.

[adaseb]

But of course even if it's variance (i.e. the hashrate spikes and then drops) it's still going to have an effect on difficulty. See a couple of spikes from the recent past, green is the 2016-block/difficulty line. Bow to my Paint skillz.

Great and I bought myself a miner this week. Grrr....

[RealMalatesta]

I'm pessimistic as always :-)

+5.26 to +5.50

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

Open-------------------------------------------+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich

+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee
+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 buyandhold


+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

[Chris_Sabian]

-5.05 to -5.30%

I've had a change of heart and change of sign with my numbers:

+5.01 to +5.25%

Same numbers but just change the sign.

[valkir]

Wow! Its look like big + in diff! 

Hope it will stabilise, I was happy with the actual setup. Stable diff and stable price.

[buyandhold]

plox to change me to +9.76 to 10.00 !

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

Open-------------------------------------------+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich

+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee
+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

About 3.5 days to make a pick we have had 3 people change picks.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is at (+1.39%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

has a big move up (+11.05%) 419 blocks vs 377 blocks really big shift here

the last time we did +10 % or more was


Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[adaseb]

And a NEW WORLD RECORD hashrate was just set. Breaking 378Ph/s.

Maybe KNCMiner and Bitfury are powering up their energy efficient miners.

[HerbPean]

Let's wait and see, if in two days we keep the Hashrate over 375Peta, we are in trouble otherwise, it's just a peak as the usual.

[adaseb]

Today looks like another +10% day, most likely it will be +10 to +15% at the end of the cycle.

[HerbPean]

Today looks like another +10% day, most likely it will be +10 to +15% at the end of the cycle.

We are two days in the diff... things can change quickly. We have seen peak in hashrate before.

All of this happened before and will happen again ;-)

[suchmoon]

Today looks like another +10% day, most likely it will be +10 to +15% at the end of the cycle.

We are two days in the diff... things can change quickly. We have seen peak in hashrate before.

All of this happened before and will happen again ;-)

Nope, I'm pretty sure the sky is falling for real this time

I was looking at AntPool and they seem to be having another good day (well, good for them, not so much for other miners).

[ezeminer]

Today looks like another +10% day, most likely it will be +10 to +15% at the end of the cycle.

Don't say that. I love keeping a constant difficulty, because then I can actually mine something.

[jmumich]

-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

Open-------------------------------------------+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich

+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee
+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

About 3.5 days to make a pick we have had 3 people change picks.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is at (+1.39%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

has a big move up (+11.05%) 419 blocks vs 377 blocks really big shift here

the last time we did +10 % or more was


Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

While there was some good luck so far this period, its becoming more certain that there was also an increase in hashrate. That could be due to a combination of (1) the ddos attacks subsiding or at least being mitigated (which artificially lowered the last two adjustments), and (2) Bitmain's shipment of S5's. (They may have gotten their large 500+ orders out before the smaller orders, which are arriving now). There's also the possibility, as you've mentioned that equipment was moving as electricity rates adjust with summer coming in the Northern Hemisphere, where I'll speculate a large percentage of mining occurs. [Edit: The good news is that these are one-time factors - so if we have a large jump, there's no reason to think that we won't go back to the 2-3% average we've seen over the past several months.]  [Edit2: The price increase from the last couple weeks could also have an impact - exchange rate has an impact, but it may lag by a week or two... which would make me think there would be a drop off toward the end of this period or during the next]. 

I added an experimental difficulty projection to the sheet that factors in what has happened so far, as well as the 3, 5, and 7 day moving averages at various weights. Right now it is showing an 8.39% increase. I feel this is a little high, but we'll see.

[HerbPean]

Today looks like another +10% day, most likely it will be +10 to +15% at the end of the cycle.

We are two days in the diff... things can change quickly. We have seen peak in hashrate before.

All of this happened before and will happen again ;-)

Nope, I'm pretty sure the sky is falling for real this time

I was looking at AntPool and they seem to be having another good day (well, good for them, not so much for other miners).

Keep the the law of average in mind my friend ^_^

Luck won't keep it up forever.

[armedmilitia]

7.76-8%

I'm not feeling too good about this spike in hashrate.

[MegaFall]

I'll switch to +1.76 to +2.00.

[Mikestang]

Today looks like another +10% day, most likely it will be +10 to +15% at the end of the cycle.

We are two days in the diff... things can change quickly. We have seen peak in hashrate before.

All of this happened before and will happen again ;-)

Nope, I'm pretty sure the sky is falling for real this time

I was looking at AntPool and they seem to be having another good day (well, good for them, not so much for other miners).

Keep the the law of average in mind my friend ^_^

Luck won't keep it up forever.

You don't need luck when you have a significant percentage of the total network hash power at your disposal.