New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time

[philipma1957]

Maybe the recent spikes are just luck? Slush's pool just did 10 Blocks in the last 12 hours, with only 12 Ph/s.

The price is down 14% for the week. It's $248 at the time of this writing.

Downward price pressure and no new efficiency hardware should continue to apply force against the difficulty.

AntPool had some massive luck today too. I wonder if the little extra BTC is also having an effect on the price. This should all sort itself out in the next week or so.

yeah if I hit a lot of blocks I sometimes cash in the coins.

have to give it a few days to sort out.

[1714736703]

1714736703

[1714736703]

1714736703

[MegaFall]

Seems available: -0.01 to -0.25


Also, I'll put up a BTC 0.01 reward for those on either side of the final correct pick; if suchmoon doesn't object.

So, for example, if it falls in the say -0.76 to -1.00 range. I'll give 0.01 to both of those at -0.51 to -0.75 and -1.01 to -1.25.


I will be following the same rules that suchmoon has laid out.


Note: This will probably be a one time thing.


(philipma1957 if you want to hold the 0.02 as escrow so I stay true to my word, I wouldn't object to that.)

[notlist3d]

Ouch difficulty is not looking good.  And price drop .  Hopefully improves over next week.

[suchmoon]

Seems available: -0.01 to -0.25


Also, I'll put up a BTC 0.01 reward for those on either side of the final correct pick; if suchmoon doesn't object.

So, for example, if it falls in the say -0.76 to -1.00 range. I'll give 0.01 to both of those at -0.51 to -0.75 and -1.01 to -1.25.


I will be following the same rules that suchmoon has laid out.


Note: This will probably be a one time thing.


(philipma1957 if you want to hold the 0.02 as escrow so I stay true to my word, I wouldn't object to that.)

I certainly don't mind, I think it's great to have a consolation prize.

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean
+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee


+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI


Amph  thanks for correction

At MegaFall I will trust you as a man of your word for the 0.02


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211


272 blocks vs 252 blocks +20 blocks = +7.79%  'real' time diff.

[alh]

Please put me down for +2.51 to +2.75

[buyandhold]

+4.01 to 4.25 thx

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean
+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee
+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 buyandhold

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211


(+10.43%)

https://www.coinbase.com   price = 251 usd

[notlist3d]

Ouch it's not looking like a good change so far.  I hope it slows downl

[philipma1957]

Ouch it's not looking like a good change so far.  I hope it slows downl

well late guessing  may be smart for the prize here.

 lots of numbers in the the + 5  to +12 area  since you can guess up to march 29 th 2 am utc time there is more then 4 days time to wait.

I could see +10 based on these early numbers.

[Chris_Sabian]

I think that I may be a little off with my guess...

[notlist3d]

I think that I may be a little off with my guess...

Sadly alot of us were off we expected much smaller then what it's appearing to be.

[Kexkey]

Ouch it's not looking like a good change so far.  I hope it slows downl

well late guessing  may be smart for the prize here.

 lots of numbers in the the + 5  to +12 area  since you can guess up to march 29 th 2 am utc time there is more then 4 days time to wait.

Right...  Pretty sure I will change my guess for something higher in a few days.  Looks like some mining farms that turned the switch off a week ago just turned it back on.  Be ready to change the list, I probably won't be the only one!   

[philipma1957]

Ouch it's not looking like a good change so far.  I hope it slows downl

well late guessing  may be smart for the prize here.

 lots of numbers in the the + 5  to +12 area  since you can guess up to march 29 th 2 am utc time there is more then 4 days time to wait.

Right...  Pretty sure I will change my guess for something higher in a few days.  Looks like some mining farms that turned the switch off a week ago just turned it back on.  Be ready to change the list, I probably won't be the only one!   

yep and after the next jump they will turn off the borderline gear and we will drop.  (I hope)

[jmumich]

Please move me to +3.26 - 3.5 (assuming we can switch) (read the rules, we can)

[philipma1957]

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50  Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to   -0.25  MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

Open-------------------------------------------+1.76 to  +2.00 jmumich

+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to  +2.50 zebedee
+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 buyandhold





we have our first switch.
rules state a switch done before deadline is allowed. deadline is about 4.5 days from now.

I ask that everyone tries 2 or less switches. just so we don't go nuts  with changes.  Not in the rules just be nice to me as it would be very hard if everyone does 4 or 5 switches .  TIA Phil

[notlist3d]

I appriciate all the work you do on this.  It's become a fun game.

Maybe next week set it where a switch you only win 1/2 as much.   If switches are limited it benefits those who picked on first pick, and saves you from having to change people up to 2 additional guesses.

[suchmoon]

I appriciate all the work you do on this.  It's become a fun game.

Maybe next week set it where a switch you only win 1/2 as much.   If switches are limited it benefits those who picked on first pick, and saves you from having to change people up to 2 additional guesses.

We'll see how this plays out. Until now we had very few if any switches. Don't forget that "switchers" are already penalized because the later you switch the fewer intervals are available. Let's see if this gets messy and if we need some kind of extra penalty.

[jmumich]

Maybe the recent spikes are just luck? Slush's pool just did 10 Blocks in the last 12 hours, with only 12 Ph/s.

The price is down 14% for the week. It's $248 at the time of this writing.

Downward price pressure and no new efficiency hardware should continue to apply force against the difficulty.

AntPool had some massive luck today too. I wonder if the little extra BTC is also having an effect on the price. This should all sort itself out in the next week or so.

It'll be interesting to see if Antpool stays lucky ... I wonder how accurate their reported hashrate is. Does it include Bitmain's own miners, for example?  [EDIT: Actually it wouldn't make much sense for it to under-report its hashrate ... it would have to pay its miners more proportionally than they deserve]

Assuming pool reported hashrates are accurate, we're not at 377Ph/s (which is the estimate for this difficulty period so far). In fact, pools that report haven't shown that much of an increase. Slush's pool has solved blocks at a rate consistent with a pool running at close to 30Ph/s over the last 24 hours, but its been constantly reporting just over 12 Ph/s.

That said, even if its luck, its put us 40 blocks ahead of pace already. There's no reason to think bad luck will even it out, so even assuming luck has played a major role the past two days we're looking at a 3-5% increase this period. Possibly more depending on what Bitmain shipped. I'd be shocked if we jump over 10% though. That would mean 33 Ph/s was added to the network... seems a bit of a stretch.

[adaseb]

Maybe the recent spikes are just luck? Slush's pool just did 10 Blocks in the last 12 hours, with only 12 Ph/s.

The price is down 14% for the week. It's $248 at the time of this writing.

Downward price pressure and no new efficiency hardware should continue to apply force against the difficulty.

AntPool had some massive luck today too. I wonder if the little extra BTC is also having an effect on the price. This should all sort itself out in the next week or so.

It'll be interesting to see if Antpool stays lucky ... I wonder how accurate their reported hashrate is. Does it include Bitmain's own miners, for example?

Assuming pool reported hashrates are accurate, we're not at 377Ph/s (which is the estimate for this difficulty period so far). In fact, pools that report haven't shown that much of an increase. Slush's pool has solved blocks at a rate consistent with a pool running at close to 30Ph/s over the last 24 hours, but its been constantly reporting just over 12 Ph/s.

That said, even if its luck, its put us 40 blocks ahead of pace already. There's no reason to think bad luck will even it out, so even assuming luck has played a major role the past two days we're looking at a 3-5% increase this period. Possibly more depending on what Bitmain shipped. I'd be shocked if we jump over 10% though. That would mean 33 Ph/s was added to the network... seems a bit of a stretch.

The day ended with 20 blocks solved too much. Looking at Antpools solved blocks they solved about 20 extra blocks today, so it could just be luck