Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is going much higher over the long-term, but there will likely be another Mt. Gox severity crash (perhaps not in November though, maybe early 2018), and I already provided a link to my thread which explains what that crisis could possibly be:


Discussion continued (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.0).

Also this from James A. Donald, the first person who communicated with Satoshi on the mailing list (https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09959.html) where Bitcoin was announced:



Note I also advised others to invest in BTC back in 2013 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg22981129#msg22981129).

Winter will come.. It will be very cold.. but is summer even over or is it the end of fall?

Difficult questions…

To be or not to be, that is the question (https://youtu.be/xsXKT5RhJf8?t=31).

Just take a Fukitol pill and forget about what I wrote.

https://i.imgur.com/Xc4vdiy.jpg

i wonder when will you start sharing "all" your bullshit i mean discussions ;D
i still remember how you were struggling to make money around here by spamming all around the forum hyping up ETH and bashing BTC and having a love hate relationship with LTC...

you were saying "winter is coming" when price went to $1200 back in April and was calling all kinds of doomsday theories (just like now) and saying it will go back to $800.
suffice it to say that not only there has been no "winter" but also price went up to $1800 and the rest is history

i wonder how long will this account of yours last before you are banned again! maybe try spamming less this time, maybe you can last longer...

Seems I have a psychotic cyberstalker following me around again…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberstalking

I suppose he will employ underhanded, sleazy tactics to try to shut up the messenger (maybe he is affiliated with Blockstream?), but this only increases the Streisand Effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect) thus defeating him.


I see no immediate winter predicted in the OP:



As predicted:

There nothing that really convinces that bitcoin is going down, or we will actually see winter coming, all you have used a got slogan to draw people attention, don't really think that it makes sense that just cause you said invest in 2013 now investing in Bitcoin is bad, I feel you have not really justified your claims, people are yet investing and people will continue to invest, you really need to add something substantial to your post for people to be convinced, currently I am not even one bit convinced, as I feel there is no imminent threat.

Which claim? The claim that SegWit is a donation to miners and can be stolen is not justified? Did you even read the technological analysis?

The crypto winter is coming (in no certain timeframe) claim hinges on the claims about SegWit. Or did you not even read and understand that?

LOL, why?
just because you keep spreading FUD and i pointed out one of many?

have fun though.

@Hyperme.sh, how can regular BTC users protect themselves from SegWit coins? I use Electrum, and most of my bitcoins are older than the start of SegWit, but how can I check the status of bitcoins transferred into my Electrum wallet since SegWit started?

Is there a way to 'de-SegWit' bitcoins, maybe by sending to myself in an old wallet? I take your advice seriously, and want to avoid having my stash SegWitled away by miners.

This is all I know (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.msg22983723#msg22983723), and I don’t know much about Bitcoin wallets. Hopefully someone else can offer better insights.

The point of discussing is to crowd source information.

I'm sort of freaking about this possibility now, and dble freaking at the lack of freaking out by most other crypto users.

Thanks for explaining the risks at play!!

That’s exactly what I felt. I couldn’t understand why everyone was ignoring this.

But then we have obstructionists like @poorya87, who (entirely not in the spirit of the censorship-resistance and meritocracy-not-democracy of crypto and blockchains) feel it is their duty to alert mods to ban anyone (http://archive.is/qQLhF#selection-1905.0-1905.71) who tries to inject this sort information into the public discourse. I guess he failed to noticed that @Theymos probably realized I’m valuable (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2095328.msg21002897#msg21002897) (<--- my first post as Hyperme.sh). Who can prove who I am? Circumstantial evidence is not proof. Besides you can’t ban a hacker, lol. Any one can claim to be anybody. Who am I any way? I haven’t cryptographically signed anything on any BCT account. (Lol, they once asked me to sign and I laughed)

Even if I am wrong in the end, I think it is still important to have open dialogue.


I feel good when my effort is appreciated.


I would really feel crummy for noble Bitcoin supporters (who form the backbone of our diversified ecosystem, but I would enjoy seeing intransigent fools) to lose any BTC because they were not given access to this threat data, no matter how large or small the actual threat may be.

I am not intending to raise FUD. How else can I get the attention of readers and get the information to them? Readers have short attention spans and there is so much information competing for their attention. And typically the issues I write about require reading walls of text that explain the details. Although I do try to summarize, the summaries tend to cause readers to miss some facets which then cause them to not fully appreciate the issues.

It is not like I just suddenly, intransigently, and impetuously dropped a bomb. I wrote two Steemit blogs about this issue in August. Then I set it aside and allowed more time to collect more information, reflect, and collect more discussion with others. Then after starting one thread on it this week (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.0) on BCT, to see if anyone could blow in any large holes in it, it was only after all that then I made a thread like this.

Oh yeah crypto winter is coming. Sooner or later.
And you know what? I don't think it will last that long it won'tl be "so cold".
And after that? You wanna guess again? Right, summer will come again.
So what exactly is your point??

You are right so there is nothing to worry about even if the winter is coming soon. If it really did come then there's only one thing needed to do in order to profit when summer comes again, and that is to hard bitcoin again. That being said, it is a nice time to unload little by little this time before this expected crypto winter. The question though is when will it happen? For now my guess is that it might come before December ends.

Another day, another high, and another bitcoin hater spreading FUD to stop it.

I don't understand the meaning of such predictions. Who listens to them. Even FUD to ban cryptocurrency in China had no effect. The price of bitcoin has dipped but I think that it was only at the expense of the whales. Ordinary users holding their coins. We don't have a lot of free money to buy up all the coins from whales. Therefore bitcoin so long kept down. Now there is no sense to sell because bitcoin is only the beginning of its rise.

What you call winter here would still be a beautiful summer. Even if the price drops down to 2000$, I would be satisfied with the money I made investing in bitcoin in 2017. Sure a lot of people would have lose money, but that is on them for selling. If bitcoin would have only reached 2000$ now, everyone would still say that they made huge gains, that its a bubble, and that were going to the moon.

So crypto winter or not, I am holding tight and we'll be patiently waiting for next summer with new all time highs. My spaceship is going to the sun baby.

It's not even fud, it's just empty speculation, and that's really it. If we look at one entity here spreading fud, and is quite a senior shill at the same time, then the honorable mention goes out to kwukduck. He probably hopes that a few newbies here add value to his legendary account status, in combination with his register date, and thus take everything he is writing here for granted. That delusional troll has started with spreading fud at the time the price was just a few hundred bucks, and look where we are today. ::) It doesn't work. I however don't believe he is actually against Bitcoin, he just acts like a complete imbecile to troll everyone here.

Right, basing investment decisions on personal anecdotes, sounds very intelligent and professional. If you look at the current bull run that last for close to two years now, you'll notice that a lot of growth was happening in a very quick spikes, which means that it was caused by small groups of investors deciding to make big buys - if it was "cleaning ladies" who were behind this rally, the chart would be more smooth. And it's a lie that Bitcoin can't deliver on its promises, it has promised decentralized permissionless payment system and that's exactly what we have for 8 years already - Satoshi didn't say that transactions will be instant and free and that it will process million transactions per second.

No signs of what you are stating. Also, the markets are decentralized and distributed more than ever given that many players are now in the game and it's not China vs the West anymore, so I don't see where you get your 'something centralized' that's gonna crash. Tbh with you none of your statements seem compelling in any way unless you have some reliable data for your claims.

It seems everything is not so clear to me but I'll try to figure things out. How sure are you that Bitcoin can't deliver on its promises? So far,it gives a fair share to everyone of us here and yes it is decentralized payment system. Eight years is very important for us. If only knew the founder behind this on going success of bitcoin,we can thank him/her. The money that we get this coming winter is maybe a surprised amount but let's just wait for the result to come.

It is very much possible that a crypto winter is coming. The signs are very much there. Massive hype, A five fold increase in price in a matter of months. Governments either welcoming Bitcoin or baying for its blood. But if a winter does come, it won't last for ever. And I will hold until the next crypto boom happens.

What if I told you that Bitcoin has gravitated towards a use case as a store of value?
Scaling solutions aren´t even really necessary for this purpose. ICO scams are more of a
Ethereum or NEO problem than a problem of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin´s scarcity makes it a great store of value that is easily portable (compared to precious
metals). The known emission schedule makes it far superior to traditional currencies that
can - and are - being devalued at will by the central banks.

I concede that use cases like micropayments are not working out as people imagined years ago,
but the store of value aspect has stood the test of time.

I think we are still at the bottom of the S curve. The Bitcoin will rise gradually or fastly in the near future.

Did you not read the OP and understand that centralized failure of the ecosystem such as in the case of Mt. Gox, caused a 2 year collapse of the crypto markets. The price fell from $1200 to $150. So the equivalent percentage drop if it happened today would be $5800 to $725 (note that is not a prediction, just a mathematical computation).

Although the following quote is not a prediction (rather just the thoughts of @CoinCube about extent of chaos possible although he thinks miners wouldn’t dare), per the following which was linked from the OP, the potential destruction to the public image of blockchains and cryptocurrency as unsafe by the public-at-large could be catastrophic and set back our foray into the mass markets by years:

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What I had already written:

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I’m documenting in this thread all of you stating: “it’s different this time and the widespread, centralized failure of Mt. Gox can never be repeated in any form”.

Just like I documented in March and April everyone stating that LTC’s move from $4 to $6 was nothing and it would drop back down again. Then it went to $85.

Just like how I recently documented in the “BCH bleeding death" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2251762.msg22965471#msg22965471) thread and the thread "people think that Bitcoin Cash can disappear" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2264121.msg22952503#msg22952503), how everyone thinks BCH is dying (and scorn it the same as they did for LTC), and let’s observe if it rises to $1000 or $1500.

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Given the majority is always wrong in the markets, is it never good to be contrarian? In 2013, both he and I were contrarians and concurred with buying BTC when it was $10 in Q1 2013. (Note I’m not necessarily contrarian now at $5000ish, but rather maybe later when my nose is bleeding profusely from the heights)

The spikes could be the Bitmain cartel miners buying to drive the price of BTC up and BCH down, so they can use the mined BTC to (buy BCH cheap and other things, so as to) double-spend on everyone when the long-range chain reorganization of the BTCSegWit chain occurs. They’ve apparently also been using their connections in the Communist Party of China to manipulate the price of crypto by declaring all exchanges closed and now the rumors they’re reopening them again. So there is the potential centralized failure akin to Mt. Gox all over again. And who was warning everyone over the past 2 - 3 years the Bitcoin mining was becoming dangerously centralized? (Hint: me)

My spin on the “cleaning lady” comment is how it is similar to the Mt. Gox run-up, in that Bitcoin was all over the MSM (mainstream media such as CNBC) and touted as the new Dot.com phenomenon. Now all over the news is how the Scalepolcalypse has been solved by the implementation of the New York agreement amongst major players in the industry. Yet I think Bitmain had always planned (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2264121.msg22952503#msg22952503) to kill the November prong of the NY agreement. And I’m (and other whales are) claiming SegWit may be a trojan horse that could possibly (not surely) lead to widespread loss of BTC.

We know that Mark Karpelès was a set-up by other elite forces in the industry. He wasn’t some loon acting alone to cause the massive crash. Similarly Satoshi was not some lone Japanese hacker working out of his garage. Similarly Wikileaks (which elected Trump as I predicted (https://steemit.com/society/@anonymint/the-red-pill-blue-pill-election-nyc-slumlord-vs-globalists)) is not something created by Julian Assange; just go learn about who harbors and funds him (Hint: the Rothschild family).

Decentralized payment system you will never have with proof-of-work. Research has modelled that is impossible:


Somebody may be fucking the drugged sheep in the ass.

https://i.imgur.com/VxRQaG8.jpg

Why do you call it Crypto winter? When did this idea came from? I'm assuming that you are referring to the price or could it be the dip, the upcoming forks. Well, this is not really new to me since I've seen some greater dips back then. This is just a normal reaction when there is a fork but the price of bitcoin that keep on rising extremely every year, that is not normal.

I’ve seen others use that term when they refer to the 2013/14 Mt. Gox induced collapse in the BTC price from $1200ish to $150ish, and the subsequent 2 year languishing of the price.

During that period, the altcoins just about died. Many went to ~$0. The venture capital investment though continued to grow. Ethereum did an $18 million ICO in 2014, which was a shockingly huge fundraising to all of us at the time.

The public-at-large became very afraid of Bitcoin, similar to their aversion to the USA stock market since the 2008/9 subprime real-estate induced crash of the stock markets. Now it appears the public is starting to trust crypto again a little and starting to come back in per the “cleaning lady” comment and for example the Steemit altcoin blogging project. EOS recently raised $200 million in 5 minutes at the start of their ICO (which appears to be an illegal security issuance (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904415.msg22904673#msg22904673)).

I've read what you wrote.
And I say it's mostly bullshit!
Back in the days Mt.Gox was THE exchange where the majority of trading has happened!
Since then so many things have changed.Much more regulation, progress, adoption and development took place.The number of exchanges alone is staggering compared to 2014! Japan, South Korea are in full throttle in terms of crypto adoption and acceptance.
 
Markets go up and go down.And after that? Right the continue moving up again!
And I highly doubt we will see another 80% crash like back in the days.
Getting such cheap coins is the dream of everybody who knows about the potential of Bitcoin!

Wall Street is coming as well. The big money wants to get in.And I mean the REAL BIG MONEY!
Lets spike up to 10-20k right now and correct down over a year max before we move up again. That's my worst case scenario!
Bitcoin will spike in crazy highs and come down and form a higher bottom than before.

Furthermore disrupting from the inside isn't working as Bcash has shown.And B2x is DOA.Right now it is highly questionable if the fork will even happen.Supporters of of NYA are dropping like flies! Forks like Bgold are welcomed by many users as they see it as crypto dividend. HODLERS get rewarded!

If you fear a short term rollercoaster in terms of the price, then I recommend to leave this place.
Your fear mongering is embarrassing and pretty obvious.

HODLERS who are in for the long run can ignore these up and downs.They just don't give a damn! In a few years they will be set for life anyway!
So again what is your point??

That’s what everyone was saying and doing at the height of the Dot.com right before the collapse also. Warren Buffet was the major lone contrarian and he ended up being correct. Where is Pets.com today?

But it’s different this time right  ::)

Just like the Dot.com situation, the entire crypto sector is built on illegal ICO scams, MLM scams, and speculation on crypto scams. That is 95% of Bitcoin’s use case is backed by FOMO (fear-of-missing-out) scams:



Including the scam of “decentralized mining” which is utter nonsense given that there are only two 14nm custom ASIC fabs in the world, and they are both controlled by the powers that be (aka the banksters who run this world and who also control Bitmain). And please don’t give me that unresearched n00b nonsense about ASIC resistance and “we’ll just change the proof-of-work algorithm” (https://gist.github.com/shelby3/67d990230e2dc9eb8be9e43e0b0b77a7), because I’ve done the research.

All you’re saying is that you have herd sheep mentality just like the other billionaires who will get raped by the Rothschild (the Zionists) just like in the 2008/9 collapse, the Dot.com collapse, the S&L collapse before that, the 1920s Great Depression collapse before that. Etc..



They own you. You have no rights. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q)

All this democracy BS about SegWit has won because everybody gets a community vote is complete nonsense. Cryptocurrency is not democracy. The economic reality is the whales decide and they use deception and take their time in harvesting as many sheep into the corral as possible before they pounce.

Bitmain cleverly pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes by feigning agreement to the NYA, but I presume it was always planning to let 2X fail so that the big blockers head into BCH (“Bcash”) and then that will give them the leverage against SegWit to at some point begin the mining attack to restore BTC back to purely a Satoshi protocol while stealing a lot of BTC from intransigent fools. The banksters have always been about profit and deception. And the intransigent sheep walk into the traps over and over and over again. Lol.

I already provided the link (https://gist.github.com/shelby3/e0c36e24344efba2d1f0d650cd94f1c7) (and the link to the clarifying discussion (http://archive.is/8TEFu#selection-20289.0-20289.23)) in my prior post to the research which shows that decentralized proof-of-work is a lie and it can not remain decentralized, because without an oligarchy in control then as revenue from transaction fees rises to greater than the revenue from the protocol block reward, then the economic incentives for the choosing one of competing orphaned blocks to arrive at a consensus are no longer aligned. The research models that without an oligarchy in control, then in the future every proof-of-work blockchain (not just Bitcoin, but also all altcoins based on proof-of-work) no longer converges and instead would diverge into a proliferation of every increasing number of forks!

I do research. I also study history. You pontificate.


Did I not write that I’m also a HODLER! How many damn times do I have to repeat this until you actually comprehend my point? Can you read the English language?

---

Let’s see what you will say after all your recently acquired BTC is stolen by the blockchain. How will your cute community spirit fork off when the whales are getting rich on your unintended BTC donations? (at least you can still jack off while I do research)

How high will your confidence be then?

Might you end up being cross-eyed and bit confused about your former idealism, hubris, and overconfidence?

https://i.imgur.com/geUFDyY.jpg

Reality is not your little sheep fantasy. The world is run by very powerful whales. (actually due to the inviolable Second Law of Thermodynamics nature is an ever increasing chaos aka entropy and inviolable natural cycles, so the elite must leverage the avarice/greed and herd mentality of human sheep)

And they hire the geniuses who scheme out how to deceive you with your own greed and desire of surety (both of which are condemned in the Bible).

And the hypothesis is they will restore Satoshi’s protocol (actually they never stopped using it). The theory is they’re collecting all of you in a corral (a double-spendable state on the illegal fork blockchain) in order that a meritocracy can be enforced. Those who do not understand Bitcoin is immutable, will learn the hard way.

They presumably funded and created Blockstream and found some gullible Core engineers to create a Rube Goldberg machine for them to fool the sheep into donating their BTC to “pay to anyone”. Lol, I admire the work of these Zionist banksters. So hilarious.

I await your “rebuttal”.

Hypermeme thinks we are still in MtGox times. By that time there was nothing to buy with bitcoin. Now its different, now we can buy houses, cars, yatches, all with bitcoin. In Dubai there are apartments for sale with bitcoins, I guess that they are even putting the addresses in the housing contracts. Now we have research on blockchain technology, both for corporations and governments, and we have teams working to find a solution to the credit card problem. We have LN coming, we have satelites, we have mass adoption in Japan.

So, there will be no crypto winter, despite what tinfoil-hat conspirationists might want.

Oh just like in the Dot.com bubble we could buy stuff at Pets.com. 95% of all the economic activity in crypto is scams (selling bridges that go no where) and speculating on scams. Period. Do the research.

Yeah everybody was talking in the Dot.com bubble about how the world had been instantly changed, but the reality was it was a bubble with very little real adoption, which is exactly the same case in crypto right now. Our adoption is 95% scams and speculation on scams.


I already provided the information in my prior post about how proof-of-work is insolubly flawed and can not be fixed.

LN destroys the security of proof-of-work. This was covered in prior discussions I linked to.

All this so called research into use of blockchains is mostly nonsense because no one has figured out how to scale a blockchain such that the control is decentralized. No one! (except me) Every instance you can mention, I can explain why it is and must be centralized controlled.

All these hyped projects are mostly all nonsense as well. You n00bs will believe any technobabble BS you gaze at wide-eyed.

You guys are putting the cart before the horse, just as the Dot.com bubble did. Yes eventually people figured out how to get billions to adopt the Internet. But it took more time. And the same will be the case for decentralized ledgers. We will have a (perhaps -80%) correction to weed out all the scams and overconfidence and then projects like mine will go on to be the KILLER APP.

I pondered about whole crypto reality and unfortunately, I need to agree with Jamie Dimon when he said that Bitcoin might be shut down by the governments.
Bitcoin might be something insignificant for now, but it is still growing and very soon when it will reach a certain level we will see government intervention in the bitcoin industry.
Governments like to control money, like to know where and who is sending it. It is not a secret. There is a really high chance that we see a lot more government action against bitcoin.
Most likely some draconian regulation will be put in place, maybe something even more drastic like action including changes to the core BTC protocol.

They can’t shut down private keys (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg22981129#msg22981129). And have many reasons not to do so (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1972052.msg22658897#msg22658897)!

They can go after the ICO scams though to some extent.

Presumably Dimon has been told by his bankster buddies that the BItcoin bubble will be popped soon. He apparently does not realize how they are planning to pop it (the elite employ compartmentalisation to prevent their underlings from knowing all their plans and schemes). I am giving you a plausible theory.

They might increase regulation of the exchanges but they can’t stop decentralized ledgers (however there are no sustainably decentralized ledgers yet).


And the perspective from someone in a country where people had to in recent past disobey the government to survive, e.g. perhaps in a former USSR nation:

Past will never turn once again because at the moment nothing can stop bitcoin because bitcoin is on the way to peak where it will never come down.  Just wondering if people are afraid of winters then there are many countries who are having only summer they should need to visit arab states. Bitcoin will become a future currency around the world because it has proved to be the best currency around the world and people are accepting that.

Agreed. Long term bicoin will skyrocket still but i'm not so sure about the next year or so when nobody talks about cryptos altogether. Since we're so high up right now it's dead easy for us to drop to $3000 in a flash crash.

I'm not saying that it'll happen any time soon, in fact i don't think that this bubble will end this year.

But when it does happen, it'll take a year or two for us to recover.

Yea big players are trying to put some play sure. All people with money are trying to manipulate in their favor.
But there is many vectors where Bitcoin/ICO can run away. You cannot ban all at once.
(oh you can kill with nukes all people on the world)
Because countries have different goals while one like US is banning / restricting krypto others will see opportunity to open border to it and took money into county. This is doing Switzerland most startups is registered there. Stupid NON for US people restriction can not be enforced... people buy those ICOs in massive even if is restricted in US. US is no longer no 1 place for krypto. US,China was hunting crypto and all it ended with moving capital to another safe heaven. What goes UP will go down same price of BTC.

this can't be true. can someone explain?

There's a tremendous increase in demand this time around, don't see why winter should be coming. There might be some brief corrections, but overall this seems to be the point in time where disruptive technologies explode until the market becomes saturated. The overall crypto market should be climbing around 10 to 100 times of its current value. Perhaps even higher if we consider the fact that "undeveloped" countries are starting to boom as well.

Did you know in games of thrones brothers jump their sisters? winter came and everything worked out well for them, they all jumped something, pussies, dragons. we should invest now or sell? if you want to sell then please buy my activity tokens, I promise to buy them back later with your own money. wishful lol. this is a winter for scam ICOs and fake cryptos. anything starting with E is doomed.

The arguments for and against the theory:

Have they ever been able to shut down Bittorrent?? Don't think so. Which is responsible for over 30% of the internet traffic by the way.
They can make stupid laws but that's it!
They can not shut down Bitcoin as long it stays that decentralized. I'm not worried in the slightest about that.
And even if they could, something else would pop up, probably much more venomous as Bitcoin, from regulators point of view.
Pandora's box is open! You can not stop that happening anymore.And you won't be able to control it. There will always be a coin coming form the dark and anonymity of the web to change and free the world!!

In terms of Bitcoin again, I'm sure we won't see government intervention, but participation and adoption!!
Japan and South Korea have made the first steps!
Either you adapt and accept this dramatic change how many things will work in the future, without the typical middle men and top down hierarchy, or you will get left behind and become irrelevant, as a person, as a nation, as a business, regarding the future world economy!

Your response might be a diversionary tactic to try to make readers think that you’ve refuted the thread topic.

The thread is not alleging that the Crypto winter will be because of the government.


That is not a rebuttal of the thread topic. I’m still waiting:


You were given specific technical information which explains that mining will never be sustainably decentralized. And there is further explanation at the other thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.msg23025401#msg23025401).

Nor have you addressed the specific SegWit theft theory.

Afaics, you’re a technological n00b. You have not yet demonstrated that you understand the technology in great depth. I do.

Typically when n00bs can’t understand some technological point, they’ll just assume it’s bullshit, because that is what sheep do. They follow the ass of other sheep in front of them. Baaaa. Baaaa. Moooo. Moooo.

P.S. I do agree that there is a chance that someone will invent a ledger technology which actually remains decentralized, but no one has yet published such a technology publicly. You latched onto a theme of decentralization and you somehow just magically assume that Bitcoin is it, without studying the technological details. Investing by throwing darts blindfolded is what a n00b investor (aka sheep) does.

bitcoin doomsday theories have been around for as long as bitcoin has been around. people were calling a "collapse" of the whole thing ever since price went to 10 cents ($0.10) and have been repeating everything ever since.

the "winter is coming" is getting really old. and it doesn't matter how long a text you write about it, it doesn't make it any truer than any of the ten thousand other "winter is coming"s.

there is a perfectly clear trend going on and it will continue like this. there will be fast and big rises, there will also be fast and big dumps. it won't go to $100,000 over night the same way it won't fall back down to $2000 ever again.

And it happened twice. Dropping from $31 to $2 for a couple of years, and then from $1200 to $150 for another couple of years. Repeating perhaps every 3 years, but our sample size is too small to have any predictive confidence in the period. So then next one could be 2017 or 2018.

The crypto winter keeps repeating, yet you imply it never happens. You’re provably lying or misrepresenting the facts.

If you’re intent is to express that many people give false warnings like Chicken Little and only rarely do the Crypto winters come, then please state that more accurately.


Quoted for when it does.

i don't own the time machine that you own. or is it a crystal ball?

in any case, here is my speculation. if the SegWit2x comes and goes without any major issues the price will not go that low. it will all depend on that. i expect a lot of FUD (like the thing you are doing here) but if 2x turns out to be like bitcoin cash crap, the price will only see a small drop (possible $3900 bottom) and then jumps back up to $4900 in 2-3 days and then to $7000 from there.

2x will die. BCH (Bitcoin Cash) will be the big blockers’ choice (after they give up hope on 2x). Bitmain will make it so (by killing 2x).

Bitmain’s strategy is divide-and-conquer and employ deception to load up the double-spendable booty.


You have not rebutted my technological information. Therefor you have not proven I am spreading FUD. I am spreading factual information. I doubt you even comprehend the technological information I have provided.


I also think BTC might go to $7000 - $8000 (maybe even higher) in next weeks or months (before any crypto winter).

2x will die and BCH will also go very high.

As for the possibly ensuing crypto winter, the SegWit (not 2x) attack comes later, if at all. The booty has to accumulate first. We await more SegWit transactions to pile up on the blockchain and more miners spending BTC they mined (which becomes a booty they can double-spend later). Hopefully the miners are sending a lot of their mined BTC to Poloniex and Bitfinex, so when they double-spend it with the long-range chain reorganization attack, then those corrupt exchanges and their customers (even the ones who withdrew BTC) will be bankrupted. Of course, a lot of intransigent n00bs who refuse to listen are going to be harmed, as it should be as a reward for the intransigence.

My popcorn is ready. Hard-headed sheep never listen, even we try to warn them.

There are some here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=317658.3420 who already TRB is being traded on an exchange under a different name/ticker but of course they could also be fantasists much like one or two people on trilema.

It won't be as bad as the Mt. Gox incident...  but all signs are pointing to some growing pains on the horizon.  But I believe that when the smoke clears it will not only rebound, but surpass it's previous high and then keep on growing from there.  That's not to say there won't be more bumps in the road on the way (that's inevitable), but through those up's & downs the up's will outweigh the downs and over time the value will continue rising in the big picture.

It's not a nuclear winter... just a normal one, and a thawing out will be right around the corner.  Springtime will come.

I agree, it worries me a bit realizing that bitcoin pumps extremley high just in a couple of weeks. This year, from less than 3k to 5k and almost 6k by the end of the year. I wonder what makes it go up that high, it almost tripled. China banned exchanges and I think that when Japan and Korea adapts it I can not recover that fast but look at it now. I am very glad about the prices but still worried.

It seems to me that the main reason that bitcoin is growing in value is a result of the conspiracy whales. But by their actions they are pushing the use of bitcoins ordinary people. This leads to the fact that the number of bitcoin users will continue to grow. Once the number of coins the whales will be comparable to the number of coins available to users of bitcoin will become more stable and predictable.

If you are not ready for a 60% correction you are not ready for bitcoin it is that simple.

I do not think we will wind up in a crypto winter if there won't be a new bubble first. With 'bubble' I do not mean this cozy ride up but a real fat bubble. On those terms, we are by no means close: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg23031523#msg23031523

The reason that logarithmic charts can overstate the potential reality is because saplings grow to be oak trees, but oak trees do not grow to the moon.

Nevertheless it is possible for Bitcoin’s bubble to move higher than even $10,000 before the next crypto winter. Whether it is likely or not, is not a speculation I am commenting on.

Also please plot the PVI for only SegWit transactions and then you may see a bubble forming. My hypothesis is only about a death to SegWit, so it is SegWit (not Bitcoin in general) where we might see the bubble.

I think that the main thing is to wait for another fork and then see what the situation with Bitcoin pricing will be. After this, one can only expect the stabilization of the course not only on Bitcoin but also on altcoin. Of course, this whole situation is very annoying, but the main thing to keep was with respect to the sale of crypto currency.

I try to avoid speculating too much as well as pretty much anything is the norm in cryptos.

My only though is that with LedgerX (CFTC regulated) derivatives now here, I'm especially hesitant to say we'll see a crypto winter, at least not before we see much higher prices.



History is on the side of repeating bubbles/crashes, so to think that won't happen again is very naive.

I can see a time when we're truly in a bubble, like the tech stock bubble x10! Maybe in a 2 - 5 years or something, when BIG money is in the game on a world wide scale and we'll be in the Trillions for combined MCap. The time when most ICOs have had a few years, and still haven't produced anything tangible and they actually run out of greater fools. Then we'll see something like a true crypto winter that could last for years. The Amazons of the crypto space will still be here (BTC, LTC, ?,?) and the Facebooks will be developed at that time. The rest will be wiped out and people will come to their senses, realizing that ICOs were just ridiculous. In that event BTC would likely take a huge hit in terms of price, so always best to be diversified and keep an eye on new developments.

The fundamental analysis is very positive, if we get past the segwit2x attack diatribe that is.

After this event is passed, and given no other news of a nature similar to a big government ban of sorts arise, we would be aiming at very high new ATHs.

The segwit attack described by hyperme.sh is a very interesting theory, but I think it will never happen and consider it a non-treat. I see it as another unrealistic attack vector.

Overall conclusion is that we are going higher.

The fundamental of Bitcoin and nearly all cryptocurrencies is they are a theft paradigm (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg23209757#msg23209757). Every Legendary I know has lost massive amounts of BTC due to scams and theft. This will continue to be the case.

The fundamentals are not the fantasy of defeating the powers that be and spreading freedom to the slaves, that many may imagine they are and which the mass media helps goyim to fantasize about.

Try to wrap your mind about the fact that the people who run the world are thieves. Jesus threw them out of the temple. They're always scheming ways to strip you of your productivity and savings. This is the reality of the world, not some silly fantasy about how we peons ($millionaires and such) rise up and cut off the head of the beast.


Your use of the term 'diatribe' in this context implies that you you feel someone is repeating something that you feel is not worthy of your (and others') attention.

The term means an unjustified and unfair verbal attack on someone or something.

But that is not a rebuttal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.msg23159748#msg23159748).


There were those who were warning about Mt. Gox, yet many Legendary members here still lost money because they thought it was unlikely to fail.

Cryptocurrency (in addition to other epochal-shift potential (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg23181242#msg23181242)) is a theft paradigm. Every Legendary I know has lost massive amounts of BTC due to scams and theft. This will continue to be the case.

Since many or perhaps most of you have become wiser about safeguarding your private keys and not leaving your BTC on exchanges, the Zionist bankster thieves need a more sophisticated method of taking your BTC from you gullible goyim.

Fact is if a huge booty is created and if there are still millions of BTC that hate SegWit, that is basically a near guarantee that miners will take that booty and give those whales what they want.

I quesstimate slightly below 80% odds of it occurring, but I much less convicted about when it will occur. I think it is quite plausible that the current bubble is nascent and we need to move much higher and have much more booty accumulate before the crypto winter:


OTOH, we're already way above the ~50% per annum average appreciation of Bitcoin and we are 5X higher than the prior peak in 2013/14. So we're already entering nosebleed terroritory, but perhaps we need to hit $10,000+ or some level ($50,000?) where my nose is bleeding profusely before we finally get the SegWit attack, the SEC crackdown on major ICOs such as EOS, and perhaps also the failure of TetherUSD, Bitfinex, and perhaps Poloniex also.

Something like a contagion is on my radar but I do not know when. Perhaps some time in 2018. And note that if I am correct about Bitmain clients spending their BTC into exchanges and then later double-spending it with a long-range chain reorganization, we could indeed see exchanges fail.

Something very widespread and sinister is brewing, but it may take us higher and deeper first before it reveals itself.

Given the timing is so uncertain, it's possible that BCH could decline significantly before it catapults. In my theory, the protagonists would want BCH to be sold off and cheap as possible before beginning their SegWit attack. However, if SegWit2x fails (not the attack) as I expect in November, BCH and LTC (with its larger blocks and SegWit) may be the beneficiary for big blockers. So perhaps we get another spike upwards for BCH and LTC (i.e. SegWit not destroyed yet, so 8MB blocks on BCH and 2MB blocks and SegWit on LTC), then perhaps some long drawn out decline before the massive SegWit attack, BCH skyrocketing, and then the crypto winter. There are many possible scenarios.

Seems we are likely to get the battle over larger blocks before the battle over the viability of SegWit. The SegWit attack probably won't occur in 2017.

---

That seems to be a significant development. I was not aware of that. So indeed more leverage means a greater possible swing to the upside, and availability of shorting should mean less collapse to the downside. And this feeds into my point that since no one can print Bitcoin out-of-thin-air yet, a contagion later could be possibly cause widespread defaults. However, Bitfinex found a way to print BTC out-of-thin-air, they created their own token instead of delivering BTC.

We’re blowing more air into the balloons. Every time a new fork is created, the wealth effect makes us all think we’re richer than we were before. But liquidity can be a mirage when we’re effectively buying from ourselves.

If the authorities cut off the spigot somehow by declaring certain tokens to be illegal securities, then perhaps that is one of the factors that could crater the greater bubble we might see over the ensuing months.

Note this is probably just feeding speculation about speculation and yet another example of lack of real world use cases being delivered. There’s no actual revenue model, just like in the Dot.com bubble. And feeding into the SEC’s recent warning about the sector being in a bubble:

---

It’s not clear to me if we go directly to the $trillions mcap or have another crypto winter interim. The arguments for the former are somewhat compelling. A phase-shift transition normally moves to much greater extremes. Also worry about ICO crackdowns, SegWit attacks, etc, would be indications of not yet being near the top. Near the top, everyone will entirely forget those precautions (and that is when they occur in order to steal from the most people, i.e. the vast majority have to be on the wrong side of the trade). So my precautions are usually premature, as I am highly contrarian.

Well I might say that ETH has had a few years and produced nothing tangible, but ETH was the enabler for ERC-20 ICOs. And the recent EOS token sale to me was an indicator of a fever where afaics suitable legal precautions were deemed unnecessary (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904415.msg22904673#msg22904673), but it could be that we are only in the middle innings (baseball analogy) yet.

I strongly believe in a Hyper.mesh segwit cryptowinter. Even if the risk and probability was weaker than 20%, it is the kind of scenario that can destroy your wealth (or make you richer) and every sensible investor should have this doom scenario in mind and protect his wealth. I can't see legitimate answers preventing a 51% cartel. The incentive is obvious.

To go further in this doom scenario, I am very surprised and even scared that we can't still find basic information and means to distinguish BTC with segwit history or not.

We may suppose Miners and exchanges partnering are privately using a tool to show if a random BTC has a segwit history. When possible, they may keep the virgin "satoshi's BTC" with no segwit history and release mainly BTC with segwit to the market.
It could lead already to a high number of BTC in the market leaving already no chance for us to receive satoshi's BTCs by chance. The incentive to rollback to satosh'is BTC is even huger if 95% are already in miner's hands.

The incentive for them is also to have the best price for Satoshi's BTC, and If I were in Miners camp, I wouldn't wait too late to rollback in order not to hurt too much the Satoshi's BTC price. It needs to stay connected to the current bubble and not to upset the whole community. They can still market the necessary rollback as a structural segwit flaw they have just discovered and not a during planned and orchestrated evil attack ... They can sell like it is the community interest to roll back now, even without doing the whole attack ! And as sheeps we will follow...
Moreover, with a "segwit distinguer tool" they wouldn't really marginally earn that much by waiting.

Of course we won't go to a $trillion marketcap without any short or mid term bear phases.
Markets always move in cycles. Up and down. New highs and corrections afterwards before going for other new highs. This happens on any timeframe.
And as a $trillion mcap is still some years away, we will inevitably see some bear cycles.
As long as you aiming for a goal in a few years, you will see this a very healthy, a chance for you to buy more and for others to join this space if they aren't in already. So everything is fine!

i also believe there is a chance of the hyperme.sh segwit cryptowinter scenario. cant give odds though as i do not have the technical expertise.  i have (very) old pre segwit coins in paper wallets. however i swept other old paper wallets to get bcc/bch and then traded for btc. i also sent some old btc directly to a new trezor segwit account. so some accounts in the new trezor have a mix of btc from an exchange, others are just a straight transfer from a legacy (ie pre segwit) accounts to a segwit account. sure be nice to have a tool that analyzed those accounts and sort them out. be nice to have "guaranteed clean" btc in some trezor accounts and segwit btc in others.

I probably used the term out of context or just the wrong word. What I meant is, we have probably considered every scenario, and from now on there is nothing to do but wait and see what happens.

My prediction is that 2x will cause a dip, it will finally be beaten after a while, the price will recover, and there will be no SegWit disaster scenario. I was there during MtGox, it was always clear to me that it wasn't safe and kept my coins on my full node. I think your theory is a much different one, can't compare it to an exchange leaving with your coins.

Other says bitcoin gonna fall gonna fall gonna fall it is for real aren't you guys don't happy for what the bitcoin price now? Because no matter what the price of bitcoin is untill you can use it go for it and never think about the negative side of bitcoin if its gonna fall or not bitcoin is always there.

Agreed. I can't really see miners screwing themselves over either. There's too much money invested into mining hardware for them to just let Bitcoin die. They will do what it takes to keep their profits rolling in.

if at some point the potential payoff of attacking segwit outweighs the potential downsides, there would be people seriously considering it. would someone try? dunno. but segwit seems to add unnecessary risk to btc long term value.

You can understand when you always have thought about the negative side of Bitcoin, you can remind yourself do not put much money into Bitcoin and take profits when you have chance to do that. Of course, someone will think this type as a pessimist, but I think it is useful for me.

There is nothing wrong with taking profits. You will have to benefit at some point from Bitcoin's huge price appreciation. There is no point in taking all your bitcoins to the grave.

Bitcoin is for sheep?

I am not trying to tell anyone what to think. Everyone has their own free will.

Many people seem to think the miners will not profit from the posited attack but I have already explained that I think they will not only profit but they will achieve their goal of world domination:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.msg23365309#msg23365309

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.msg23338601#msg23338601

How many of you have read everything in the above linked thread?

Again it is all speculation. Please remember that.


If I were the ones planning such an attack, first I would create many different forks of Bitcoin (that appear to come from different groups) to make it appear that the community is in disarray and thus making mutability look like a really bad idea. Divide-and-conquer. And sucker a lot of sheep into trusting Core (i.e. Core may have been funded as a decoy in a long-range plan). We goyim are so gullible.

Then when SegWit is attacked, that can be a strong argument that returning to immutability is much more sane and that the attacking miners are actually rescuing Bitcoin so that it can serve as a stable one-world reserve currency:

---

I appreciate that. Again none of us posting here knows for sure. We’re just analysing possibilities and trying to guesstimate probabilities.


I believe the Zionists may have had their hand in Mt. Gox from behind the curtain. There were a lot of weird things that came out about Mt. Gox later, and I do not remember all the details.

The Zionists need to completely fool us in order to successfully get us to support our own enslavement.

I do understand that speaking about conspiracy theories can make a speculator’s eyes roll back in his head. But srsly, it’s impossible that Satoshi was a Japanese nerd who created Bitcoin from his garage. Everything about Bitcoin is fucking weird as shit and improbable to have been an unplanned creation.

Of course if the Zionists created Bitcoin, they’d attempt to make it appear as though it was created amateurishly, yet we see all the key features of Bitcoin have remained intact from the way they were created by Satoshi (presuming SegWit dies in flames as I posit). And specifically note the research I cited in the companion thread, about how proof-of-work MUST BE centralized as revenue comes predominantly from transaction fees as the protocol block reward diminishes. This is one of those strong points of evidence that Bitcoin was created with the full intent that it become entirely centrally controlled at the end game.

P.S. Note I distinguish Zionists from Jews. The former are the evil mofos. And I am not referring to people of the diaspora that want a homeland. I am referring the mofos who hijacked that and want to subjugate the human species.

It's one of those things that could end up pushing BTC over the edge eventually and pave way for another crypto... Unless mining becomings more attracted and thus more decentralized I guess, which doesn't seem likely right now.

My world view is that you’re (we’re) gullible and looking it from that which I posit to be the incorrect perspective.

Instead, as I explained in my prior post, I think it will make BTC the king of crypto and enable it to be trusted as immutable which is the necessary requirement for a one-world reserve currency that nation-state central banks are eventually forced to hold as reserves by lack of other less politically manipulated alternatives.

Yet the irony of it is the mining will be entirely controlled behind the curtain by the Zionists (aka The Beast or Anti-Christ in Revelation). This all ties into my theory that Bitcoin was created by the Zionists planners. I had presented several reasons or evidence to support this theory.

The Zionists (Satan) are so clever, that they have fooled us into cheering for and evangelizing our future enslavement into the 666 system (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612.0) (<--- I wrote that in 2013). Exactly as predicted in the Bible that we would be fooled by the miracles of the Anti-Christ.

Satan demonstrated his power when he destroyed the three buildings at 9/11 with controlled demolitions. Study the research by PhDs and scholars (https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/israel-s-mossad-did-9-11).

I of course hope I am entirely incorrect. Who wants to think that we’re doomed to enslavement. Yet as I challenged readers, study the research and try to refute it.

What better way to enslave all us goyim by turning us into slaves blinded by our own greed into evangelizing our enslavement paradigm. Lol. Perfect.

Go Bitcoin $10000!. Go Bitcoin! Go! Yahoo! At least we’ll be filthy rich slaves for a few moments.

You are incorrect, at least partially. It depends on your perspective I guess. But in reality, you're only a slave if you choose to be one. Even with central banking, you can choose to make them your tool instead of allowing them to control your life. Most people just lack the awareness to do this (for goods reasons).

We’ll according to prophecy, at the end times no one will be able to buy or sell anything without permission from a centralized authority, i.e. everyone must take the 666 mark.

The enslavement comes from the top-down by eventually controlling everything, even where/how you allowed to breathe and reproduce.

In the meantime, yes it is possible to find ways to game the system. And some have argued that it will always be possible to game the system, but afaik prophecy disagrees.

I think basically your point is you don’t give a fuck about prophecy or the effect of debt control, politically correct totalitarianism control, and other forms of subjugation of the human species into a 1984 outcome (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four).

Prophecy is just part of the game. There is no "top down" unless you choose to believe in it.

Try and you'll find out. It seems like you'll be in for a surprise, since you actually appear to believe that you're just a bag of meat and bones instead of simply controlling a human body.

We're getting off-topic though.

I do not think I wrote anything which indicated I think that. If you had read my archives, you would know I have even written about the possibility of time travel by discarding our body.


Ok.

But let me see if I understood your stance correctly. Are you saying that we should not care at all about how we are deceived? That I am wasting my time by trying to analyse our deception?

So then what matters in this world? So we should not invest in Bitcoin or do anything because none of this matters?

Should I just take drugs all day because nothing matters any way?

Depends on how you define "wasting time". I personally overanalyze just about everything as well, because it's very enjoyable for me and I like experiencing as much as I possible can. Analyzing everything is part of that.

What do you want to matter in this world? That's the only relevant question - unless you want other questions to matter more. If someone wants to live on a farm instead of investing in Bitcoin then all power to them. That's one out of infinitely many ways to live out a human life and if I could I would probably choose to live out every possibility.

Sure, that's another way to live life. Not one that I currently find very appealing, but it's a way to experience a human life nonetheless. I have personally taken quite a lot of drugs, but I am not letting them take control of my life. I have a degree in science and I am learning about as many things as I can. Trying out mind-altering substances (as long as they are sufficiently safe) is just one (very small) aspect of my life. If someone else wants to base their whole life around taking drugs though, why should that be a problem?


Just because nothing really matters doesn't mean that you can't create your own meaning. That's what's so beautiful about reality, at least to me. I wouldn't want to have to live a life where success is predefined in one specific way, so I'm glad that nothing matters and that I can give my own meaning (or none) to life.

If you read my archives, you will find that I have written nearly the same as your comments.

And I am trying to understand/decide/analyse what role I want partake in the move towards a one-world currency regime.

Ultimately I may too disappear on a farm or into a digital form just because I (and/or the Universe) chose that direction at some point.

But afaics we do not entirely choose our direction. I would not agree with you if you claimed we have totally ordered self-determination. We’re necessarily connected to and subject to the overall trend to maximum uncertainty (entropy), else the Universe would have to be certain (a total order) and computable (and thus we would not really exist in any sense of game or life any more than a photograph or a video is existence of those in it). The future and past light cones of relativity would be undifferentiated.

I have the same problem, which I guess is why I try out as many things as I possibly can. It's hard for me to decide on a single path since everything seems so interesting and exciting.


I think we're just not fully aware of our own actions. Think about how difficult it was to learn something new, like walking, writing, or using language. Now it just happens subconsciously. But we're still the ones responsible for it. We've just become so good at it that we stop paying attention to all the fine details of our own actions.

At some point we end up completely forgetting how we even learned to do all these things that we now take for granted, so it's no surprise that we end up feeling like we're not in control.
But the more attention you pay to yourself, the more aware you'll become of everything that is happening - and why/how it's happening. A part of what makes life as a human so fun is precisely how easy it is to get lost in this illusion of a "human life".

Relativity and light cones are just ways for a human to rationalize reality based on the filters through which a human is capable of perceiving it. But those explanations are ultimately just that. They're convincing, but not real. They're just part of creating your own reality - in which you choose what to believe in and what not.

By the way, all theories that are currently accepted in science are extremely incomplete, which at the same time had me disappointed and excited. I used to believe that there was "one fixed truth/explanation for everything", which is why I went into science - to find it. But all I found was that different humans tell different stories and none of them are any more true or false than any other.

Okay but what I think I am saying is that we necessarily can’t have complete information for if we did than everything would be predetermined. Uncertainty must increase else we would be entirely alone, as no one else could be the in game except as our controlled slave.

Apparently even Einstein seemed to believe that the Second Law of Thermodynamics is fundamental/inviolable. (the point that the entropy[1] of the universe trends to maximum)

P.S. yes I am aware of for example the non-local variables issue in quantum mechanics, etc..

[1] Entropy means roughly in layman’s terms: the distributed-ness of uncertainty about specific outcomes.


That is my point.


I added the edits above to make it clear I am referring to the universal scale.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics has already been violated on small scales (I'm not sure if you mean this with non-local variables in QM, because it can happen locally on small enough scales). Whether or not it's possible to violate it on larger scales is not known, but just because we haven't observed it happening yet doesn't mean it's not possible. It could just mean that we don't have good enough measurement devices or don't understand enough yet to observe this happening.
Also, I mean "game" metaphorically, don't take it too seriously. I don't think that reality is like a game that has been programmed. Programmed games follow rules, reality I'm pretty sure does not. At least not in a static way like in games or computer simulations. "Rules" in the real world are dynamic and change over time. Even physical constants appear to be changing and not be constant after all - although this hasn't been confirmed for sure yet.

I don't know if it's possible to have complete information or not by the way. But imagine what an existence with complete information would be like. Imagine if you know everything that has happened, that is happening, and that will happen all at the same time. Would there be any change to be aware of? Would there even be a next moment? The fact that you experience change right now and get to taste different things, see different things, see things moving, and so on, is all because you have incomplete information.

If you had the information of the past and the future you would be aware of everything at once, which would be the same as being aware of nothing at all. So if you want to be able to experience any aspect of reality you must discard the information about everything else, at least temporarily.

I’ve been hearing from others (since roughly $2000) about them hearing from other investors (from outside our ecosystem) asking about Bitcoin. And here is the reason:


I found this discussion with Marc Andreessen to be very interesting (points I more or less already know yet focused my attention):

http://ritholtz.com/2017/05/mib-marc-andreessen-venture-capitalist-a16z/

(Btw, at the 36 min point he entirely validated my Knowledge Age thesis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0)).


And the follow-up and notice the one-sided viewpoint driven by Coinbase and Lightning Networks representation not balanced by anyone from China or other viewpoints (they openly deride Roger Ver and by implication Bitmain and China, not that I think that highly of Ver):


When someone talks about an unproven rock star, they usually have drunk some Koolaid. Btw, I listened to this Elizabeth Stark in a few YouTube videos and she has errors in her remarks (e.g. that LN can be decentralized, etc). ^{(Frankly I got so bored by her verbiage, I couldn’t listen for very long)}

Okay, so here is my thought.

The Chinaman got together with the WallStreet folks and did the NYA to foster a bubble. But I have posited in this thread (and the companion thread) that the Chinaman has a scheme up his sleeve (and he is backed by very very powerful players behind the curtain who play both sides of the coin).

We’re obviously in a phase transition right now, and the big money is starting to notice. But how long will this phase transition go on before it reaches nosebleed and needs to take dive? $8000 - $10,000 within a month? Then we’ll get some exhale (not dive) into altcoins because of the risk of the 2x fork in November (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2291196.0) (and my bets are still on LTC and BCH for the reasons I already explained because I expect 2X to fail to be adopted (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2261812.0)). Then $25,000 by Q1 2018? That would take us to ~$0.5 trillion market cap (perhaps $1 trillion overall including all altcoins), which would presumably set the gears into motion to insure the institutional players want in. And will the catalyst for any subsequent dive be dire (e.g. the SegWit attack I posited) and create a winter? Will the big money get the “custodian insurance” they need in time to come in and support this phase transition before any such crypto winter?

And whether SegWit, Lightning Networks, and ICOs (i.e. the current paradigms that the current phase transition are hinged on) are the paradigms that will take us to this future?

It seems the vehicles are being created to allow more speculative players into the market, but afaics the institutional players will not be able to buy into this bubble within the next few months:


My thought is indeed we are heading into a bubble right here and right now. The price is probably going much higher. Everyone thinks Lightning Networks is coming and Bitcoin scaling is on the way. It’s the Dot.com bubble redux, but the Warren Buffetts aren’t buying yet (and he was correct about Dot.com yet he admits he missed the boat on 2.0 and not investing in Amazon).

But what if as I had explained that (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.0) LN is fundamentally flawed and will damage the security of Bitcoin (not just the “pay to anyone” theft potential but also the garbage collection spikes, Mt. Box centralization, fractional reserves, and other issues I explained in the companion thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.0))?

What if Bitcoin will be the reserve currency (of both altcoins and eventually the nation-state Central Banks) and some other altcoin and technology will end up being the medium-of-exchange for this sector ^{(and yes I am specifically thinking about my decentralized ledger technology!)}, i.e. Bitcoin will be the Fat Protocol and reap most of the benefits any way (even if it does not directly scale transaction volume, it scales economically as the reserve currency):


What if SegWit is destroyed (and miners profit and are heros for it) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2268216.msg23400371#msg23400371), ICOs are destroyed, Bitcoin’s immutability and security is retained and we ride off into the future with a huge ecosystem that works better. This scenario is a long-term positive outlook, but with a potential crypto winter bust along the way.

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Seems there is a lot of expectation of the BIG MONEY pouring in sooner, but what if it doesn’t arrive in time?

---

Edit: I just saw this which then concurs with what I wrote:

I wonder why no one has come up yet with a bitcoin hardfork that goes back to no-segwit and continues with 1MB and keeps same hashing algo etc, so you get the original bitcoin, and maybe keep all the good work that Core has done optimizing the client because it's fast as fuck compared to older versions (you got to admit that). Not sure if there have been any compromises to reach that speed in validating the blockchain tho, I just talk from an end user experience. Back in the day, I remember running Bitcoin-qt and it was so much resource consuming to load, maddening actually. It would constantly crash. I think in around 0.13 when they switched to secp256k1 it became way faster. Eventually the resource consumption went down and now I have no problems.

This way we would have a pre-segwit bitcoin with 1MB just in case something went wrong with segwit, and we wouldn't risk getting nodes flooded with trash not being able to run them like it could happen if the 8MB of BCash got filled with spam. This fork could be used as an hedge until original chain is (somehow, i dont know the technical details) restored. I predict someone will do this in 2018, which some are calling "the year of bitcoin forks" where we will have "bitcoin whatever" left and right.

That is the long-range chain reorganization I am positing. A fork that starts from say August and steals all the SegWit booty that has accumulated enriching the miners.


I am glad that someone else has noticed they did not offer us that option. Was it on purpose?

And I conjecture one possible reason that no one has offered it yet, because TPTB in my conjecture would want to offer it as a rollback to August, after they divide-and-conquer the community with a proliferation of forks. If they offered it without a rollback earlier, they would not be able to get as much support for their coming rollback (if my theory comes to fruition).

TPTB amass more BTC with the rollback and immutability is restored.

Those (more or less economically irrelevant) sheep who lost BTC to the rollback can continue on one of those many forks to own their more or less worth-much-less “BTC”. Any way, that is my theory but not with even 80% conviction of likelihood.

As you say, 2017 to sometime in 2018 appears to be the year of the forks. So the potentially frenzied end to this forkathon mess is probably not going to be in November 2017.

Again I posited a wild conjecture that any such forkathon is being fostered behind the curtain to create the environment that will be ripe to accept the rollback as a savior from a forkathon mess coupled with a hypothesized insecurity mess of SegWit. Everyone could grow weary of the endless forking and beg for immutability.

That is a lot of potentially cockamamie theory and conjecture. Might all end up being hair-brained. Except all I can say to that is study my sources and make your own determination to quality of my sources and analysis thereof.

I hope everyone remembers there are apparently millions of BTC that would love to see the mob of sheep who supported SegWit, lose their BTC as a punishment and education. They believe the immutability (i.e. resistance against rule by the mob) is one of the key attributes that gives Bitcoin its value as reserve currency.

My wild conjecture is TPTB are in the process now of demonstrating what happens when ”rule by the mob” is allowed. In this conjecture, I posit they want to demonstrate how it ends up as a divided-and-conquered and insecure mess. I believe they put a decade (or more) of research into creating Bitcoin and they know that it should not be fundamentally altered because they know there is no such thing as a democracy. There is only a power vacuum that results in chaos until TPTB step into the power vacuum and create order.

Why am I allowed to speak? Before I was not allowed to speak. Has someone been told to allow me to speak. TPTB have a code of honor that they must warn you and give you your free will. They want you to wilfully walk into their deception due to our own selfish sheep quality.

I made some comments at that (somewhat famous and oft-cited) Fat Protocols blog just now and I will copy them here, because they’re waiting on a moderator there and might never be approved given the blog is old (also I essentially provided the most cogent refutation of it in the comments):



UPDATE Nov 5: Also I will quote Vitalik:

@Klone

I also wanted to check if my BTC were "segwitted" or not - took me a while, but finally stumbled on this: http://srv1.yogh.io (http://srv1.yogh.io) 
Hope you find it helpful.


@Hyperme.sh: Thank you very much for all your analysis - admittedly, it takes me a long time to go over it, but I truly appreciate it.  Rooting for your work: hope to see that soon.

I also mentioned this a while back wondering why they did not go back to pre 2017 and one of the suggestions was that it avoided a situation where anyone with old private keys of then emptied addresses which had contained BTC at the chosen snapshot would then have all the btc belonging to those old addresses or something to that effect.

https://www.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/difference-between-two-forms-of-bitcoin-1024x747.png




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority

Some where I actually corrected that to “rule (actually chaos) of the mob”:


See also the Pitfalls of Proof-of-Stake (https://blog.cosmos.network/consensus-compare-tendermint-bft-vs-eos-dpos-46c5bca7204b) section, Paul Sztorc’s explanation (http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/#in-theory) of voting political economics, and Mancur Olsen’s The Logic Of Collective Action (http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=984).

I am envisioning a forkathon where every demographic of differing interests is given a fork, and thus the minions are divided onto to numerous chains.

It may be perceived that Core has majority support, but my cockamamie theory is this is being feigned (and thus fostered) so as to create a bubble and a forkathon.

The tyranny of the mob is actually that the mob is manipulated by the few who control the strings from behind the curtain.

---

I think I will try to make this my last post over here in Speculation for a while.

I recently analysed (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg23357330#msg23357330) Martin Armstrong’s The Coming One-World Currency report (which btw contains an extremely detailed account of relevant world history).

Armstrong has a strong dollar international capital stampede into the USA (and USA equities) theme which seems to be valid which I also recently redocumented (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg23357330#msg23357330). With that backdrop we can analyse his latest blog as it applies to Bitcoin:


Someone ^{(who is much more well respected around here than I am)} sent this message to me in private:


If 2020 is the timeline for monetary reset (but I’ve also seen Armstrong mention dates as distant as 2024), and if Bitcoin is to be that reserve currency, then any crypto winter would need to be more of a V bottom than the 2 year cup from 2014 to 2016.

Or perhaps I should look at it another way. Maybe the exodus from the strong dollar and 40,000 DJIA just gets underway in 2020 and the capitulation of the nation-states to Bitcoin as a reserve currency does not complete until the 2024 to 2032 timeframe.

Or maybe there will be no crash:

---

I recommend clicking the quote and reading the entire blog and the insightful comments below the blog.



IOW, he exactly described the analogous Dot.com bust when the hype and empty bag selling got way out in front of the adoption. Warren Buffett was correct about the Dot.com bust and yet he admited he was wrong not to buy Amazon in the web2.0 rise when adoption finally blasted off.

I think we may see an analogous outcome in crypto, but on a more accelerated timeline. So I could see another 1 - 2 year crypto winter due to a SegWit theft and ICO collapse due to regulators doing enforcement against EOS and others. Maybe not, but maybe so.

As long as you have BTC you acquired since well before August, then you can just hold through any crypto winter, but if you’re holding recent BTC or altcoin tokens that were issued by ICO, then could potentially be confiscated/destroyed. Maybe not, but it is a risk I am considering. Do you think the scenario I described is a very low probability?


We are currently entering a phase transition vertical market for all private assets including the DJIA due to the dollar short squeeze that will engulf the entire world. The following quotes are thus relevant:


It seems above Armstrong is equating gold and cryptocurrencies to tinfoil hats who hate society+civilization (even if they do not admit it to themselves) and want money to be an absolute store-of-value without any social liability. Yet I think he is missing the point that Bitcoin will be the one-world reserve currency for the power brokers of this world (i.e. not a medium-of-exchange) and other (altcoin) cryptocurrency as a medium-of-exchange is primarily about the value of decentralized applications (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg23569587#msg23569587).








So above indicates the possibility of a plateau or correction before the vertical phase transition continues.

There is no predition I can trust when it comes to bitcoin. All alternative coins still respond to prediction except bitcoin. The general believe of bitcoin is even against your opinion with regards to winter.Just like every other commodity, the demand should be higher then and we know how demand affect value of coin.

There will be corrections and a few ‘crises’ over the years that will cause significant drops in the price of Bitcoin. There’s always going to be some risk even if it is less every year.

What we have seen is that Bitcoin has recovered from all of the MtGox, Cryptsy, and ‘Bitcoin is dead’ crises over the years so there is a good chance that it will overcome a future crisis as well. I think the fact that Bitcoin has been through those and survived is what makes it worth so much now and what keeps it as the top cryptocurrency.

Compared to all other currencies, bitcoin is really superior, it is popular with the community on the increasingly widespread, the demand for bitcoin does not decrease, on the contrary, it increased rapidly, this Makes its value increase dramatically.

I was thinking for past days I would not reply to it because it seems to not comprehend what I had already written, but then I decided of WTF I will waste some more of my time and perhaps aid understanding of my thesis a bit. Not to claim my thesis is 100% certain or correct. Just to clarify it.


More cooks does not necessarily make a better designed product. Open source is good at ferreting out bugs but it is not so good about making design decisions. SegWit is a security hole. It enables “pay to anyone” bounties and it enables garbage collection attacks from Mt. Box nodes on Lightning Networks.


Satoshi’s Bitcoin had extensive peer review. They froze it and have focused on not adding features but checking it for correctness.

Besides afaik, we can make Core compatible for the most part by choosing the version before SegWit was added (or just not using the optional SegWit).


Lol. Sheep just ignore me and look at the ass of the other sheep in front of you. That is what the people who financed this crap (https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/responses) are expecting us to do.


It will stop itself. He is waiting to let it destroy itself. Never stop an enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.

He is playing to his strengths. He by himself can not crush SegWit. He needs other whales and miners to follow. So he awaits for the SegWit booty to accumulate and then the natural economic incentive will make it happen. Have you never tried to keep flies away from honey?


I think he has also failed to understand that the Zionists are in control of Bitcoin and he will fail to keep it decentralized (https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/responses). But afaics that does not factor into analysis of whether SegWit will fail someday.


Actually there is an earlier year 1999 prior art for proof-of-work (http://www.hashcash.org/papers/client-puzzles.pdf)[1] than Adam Back’s 2002 publish date for Hashcash (http://www.hashcash.org/hashcash.pdf) (although he made some informal announcement in 1997 (http://www.hashcash.org/papers/announce.txt) of the idea). And yeah I must agree that Adam Back may be much smarter than me about cryptography, but appears to be a dunce w.r.t. to more holistic matters. For example, side-chains are irreparably insecure. Adam Back is a tool of the Zionists who funded Blockstream as a Hegelian dialectic. Everything is according to plan for world dominance.

[1] Note that is the application of a computational puzzle to solve the Sybil attack problem (http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/docs/anonymous-byzantine-consensus.pdf#page=2) (which is an underlying issue of Byzantine fault tolerant consensus). Hashcash has the specific form of the computational puzzle employed in Bitcoin (http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/docs/anonymous-byzantine-consensus.pdf#page=3).


Agreed, but the big blocks are just a misdirection and leverage play to get more BTC into the hands of the Zionists as they play out these false flag forks to take everyone’s BTC and end up with the immutable Bitcoin at the end game.

The plan I think may be that they get the one-world reserve currency but most of the sheep will have lost their BTC along the way.


An 8MB block size with no SegWit is going to look very attractive if SegWit has been stolen and everyone is afraid to buy BTC. A massive stampede out of BTC into BCH is possible, although I am not predicting that nor predicting the timing.


No problem at all. Bitcoin is not a payment currency. It is a one-world reserve currency in the making (https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/that-is-what-it-may-appear-to-be-on-the-surface-and-what-they-wanted-us-to-believe-it-is-5071b6e28b44).

Which is a very important function that (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg23357330#msg23357330) the Zionists may have planned out for decades. And which is called for in Revelation.

Hey but this is just cockamamie kooky shit despite all the compelling evidence.

I'm not technically minded but it seems to me Crypto with the ICO goldrush built upon ETH is ripe for a correction. You don't need to be smart to know when EVERYONE thinks this will go on forever then its time to be worried. Korean housewives are investing in ETH and Kakaotalk here is starting a trading platform with Bittrex. Its not about not believing in crypto cause I do but I sense we are off-kilter at the moment. I don't think the mainstream is ready for losing a lot of money in crypto, with even many on this forum are now ETH rich newbies only in crypto a few months and have no experience of the last few years of alts slow decline.


But I wonder if good stable ALTS (no ETH ICO tokens) are also a good safety play in this possible SEGWIT2x fuck up?


I just don't want to be anywhere near the BTC chain or its forks at he moment and if I did hold BTC I wouldn't move it for months. People are running at BTC now thinking its another cash cow flip but I'm not so sure...A lot of newbies and Japanese housewives are bound to fuck up without relay protection.

I do not think the government (i.e. the thugs bought off by the powers-that-be) should have a monopoly on the system for fund raising. Because I believe the bottom-up free market can allocate funds better than a top-down monopoly can. However, dynamic, multivariate optimization algorithms do not move in a bee line to a global maxima or minima of the solution space. Employing a mathematical algorithm akin to Newton’s gradient method (or something more sophisticated (http://eossystems.com/coretech_tech.html)[1]), the multivariate space is optimized with incremental steps and some oscillation (overstep and pullback) around the minima valley (or maxima peak). And even then, the solution found may be only a local optimum (i.e. at the bottom of the valley floor but there may be another lower valley somewhere out there in the dynamic multivariate solution space). By “multivariate solution space”, I want you to imagine a 3D terrain but then imagine it extended from 3 dimensions to N dimensions. Finding optimal “solutions” is tantamount to finding the lowest valley. And by dynamic, we mean the terrain is always changing as we search it! Thus there may be an unbounded number of candidates and given we can not see all of them in time epsilon, then we have no way of stating which solution was/is/will be optimal! The only known algorithm which can optimize fitness to dynamic multivariate solution spaces is decentralized annealing (i.e. the free market of many independent actors making decisions based on local information they have closest access to coupled with competition amongst top-down actors trying to aggregate wider scope information from any dimension such as time, space, etc). A system which is stated to be composed of bottom-up, decentralized actors, is consistent with some of those actors being top-down organizers within their mathematical “locale” (i.e. local within in a particular dimension of the multivariate solution space); thus, it’s not correct to state that a decentralized system has no centralization. The unbounded complexity of reality is an interwoven multivariate manifold spectrum of decentralization and centralization. If we look at the physics of entanglement, i.e. “action at a distance” (such as China’s advancements in quantum communication), I believe (wish to model as) this is a centralization manifold across some dimensions of the unbounded dimensionality of the universe.

Thus expect overshoots and massive waste as the free market takes money from fools and routes that money to those who can best allocate it for optimum production.

The governments may try to step in to stop the massive waste of selling empty speculation bags to greater fools (no crypto projects have any appreciable real world use/adoption except maybe Bitcoin and Steem) and take their cut of the pie as the cost of our inability to organize ourselves without massive waste. Yet decentralization trumps centralization (eventually and more readily in this era of the Internet) and so some projects are going to figure out a way to allocate capital better than the government privilege+monopolistic-theft model, and these paradigms will “steal” (i.e. reallocate) it all back away from the corrupted retards in government ^{(and those who ride the governments’ coattails who implicitly corrupted because they choose to comply and take the Mark of the Beast instead of coming out of the Great Harlot, thus by their complicity they perpetuate the corruption)} and into massive decentralized production.

And so yeah, expect theft and concomitant corrections along the way as the free market annealing mechanism plays out and we astute developers bring decentralization to the real world adoption.

I assert that I am working feverishly on this and the fruits of my effort will see the light in 2018 ^{(presuming I have control over my chronic health issue)}.

Note we as developers have to decide whether make such sort of ridiculous, self-aggrandizing exposition about ourselves on BCT, as a proactive defence against ignorance about our work/expertise/capabilities because there are some “sick puppies” (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904415.msg23377367#msg23377367) who were given positions of control and high reputation here who ridicule or otherwise attempt to suppress others. Presumably because of politics and the speculation pot of gold around here. By making some criticisms or claims against SegWit, I make myself a target, but note afair I’ve tried not to malign any person’s reputation in this thread, other than to state material facts and discuss/cite the opinions others have stated about others.

[1] _{I worked for a couple of months on this software in 1996 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PhotoModeler#History), implementing the 3D renderer, some of import file formats (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PhotoModeler#File_formats), and creating with manual labor (not some 3D digitization machine which were experimental or very expensive at that time) some of the most detailed photorealistic models of natural objects at that time which are also available in the Art-o-matic software I created (http://www.coolpage.com/aom.html). Literally I created a photo realistic model of a hamburger in 1996/7 (the rendering shown at the link is a cartoon rendering but download the software to see the photorealism).}


I have the same dilemma to contemplate. I want to hold some BTC long-term, but I do not currently have any BTC that I acquired well before August. Because we know that with a long-term perspective, hodling is the most risk-free strategy.

During the 2014 winter, afair most or all of the altcoins were sold off even more than BTC.

I’ve been holding BCH and LTC purely based on technical chart analysis and that the Scalepocalypse is not yet resolved. But this is more a trade than a long-term conviction about their value.

In addition to these issues we also have the potential failure of Tether, which I have continued to expect its failure eventually. Pegs are never stable long-term. There is no peg in the history of mankind that did not fail. And there appear to be many shady details around Tether, Bitfinex’s creation of tokens to bail itself of of the attack, and Poloniex seems to trade against its own customers also.

you ever plan to make an analysis again on LTC?
Where do you see this coin longterm? BTC/LTC was 0.02 not long ago, and now it's in 0.008~.
As i understand , everything becomes more clearer after November.

I am employing http://cryptowat.ch to view the charts. On a 1D (1 day) chart, LTCUSD is still in a bullish trend. LTCBTC appears to be finding a spike down, V bottom somewhere in the 0.0070s. Should rocket up again. Extremes have to reached first. I still think $100 and $150 are potentially realistic targets during this current period (over next couple of months or so). Of course, nothing is certain, just talking probabilities. If LTCBTC breaks below 0.0059, that could signal the end of the bullish trend, especially if LTCUSD has also broken down from its trend (just view the LTCUSD chart, the trend slope is obvious). We were expecting LTCBTC to reach 0.03 before this bullish trend ends (and possibly 0.05 on some insane moonshot spike), so if that holds then at $150, then BTC would need to be $5000. So perhaps BTC moves higher from here ($55 / $7500 or $8000) so we can get a 0.0070s V bottom in LTC (perhaps 0.0073) and then BTC corrects back to $5000 while LTC heads to $150 (perhaps with a first stop at $100 and 0.021 so BTC at $4700). Might not play out exactly that way. Trading is a day-to-day reanalysis.

Volatility will increase as we approach the topping of this current phase transition vertical bull market, as it did in the 2013/4 topping. LTCBTC was up and down like a yo-yo then also.

BCHUSD has a much less clear uptrend slope (not steep if at all). BCHBTC is also in this sort of wedge pattern. Thus appears to me that BCHUSD may fail to make new ATHs on this current move. May need to come back down again first, or maybe not. In short, BCH is going to be highly volatile and move up and down in very fast spikes. I do think though eventually (within this current phase transition over the next couple to few months) it will make a rocketshot to $1500+. Yet I am not 100% certain.

Btw, I sold some more BCH for LTC. I am roughly 50/50 now in BCH and LTC. Waiting for the next episode in the Scalepocalypse. Perhaps I should also diversify more, but have not the time to analyse other coins. I sold BTC up to about $5100. Decided not to hold on for $8000+, because I speculate on 3 baggers in BCH and LTC. Although it is not unthinkable that BTC does a moonshot to $15000+. When BTC declined from $4900ish to $3700ish, I was of the opinion in our private discussion group that it would reattempt $5100. My mistake was not selling some BCH for BTC at that juncture (after I had previously traded some BTC and LTC  for BCH at their prior peaks, e.g. LTC at $80+, and that was after trading some BCH at its prior peak in $800s for LTC). And it was because I was worried about the potential SegWit theft and I had not studied carefully the latest BCHBTC chart which was clearly showing weakness and potential to decline back to below 0.08 as it had progressed (trading requires a continuous attention to new facts as they develop). Given the discussions in this thread, I came the conclusion that any such SegWit theft is unlikely in 2017. Thus in hindsight I should have traded per my expectations in price (was a bit distracted/overloaded at that time so hadn’t developed a well thought out analysis of the situation). I really do not have the free time to be a trader. I am so busy as programmer/developer/doing research ^{(and also daily issues of coping with and sorting out the recovery/cure from disseminated Tuberculosis)}.

When bitcoin rises in price then all the altcoins are getting cheaper. This is not surprising. It is a pattern. If after November the price stabiliziruemost that altcoins also begin to catch up in price. Now many people are buying bitcoins, but it seems to me that it is not correct. Now we need to pay more attention to altcoins.

An endless speculation regarding cryptocurrency in the future.
What kind of winter that you have mentioned here?
Bitcoin price constantly increasing over time and some altcoins following but mostly left behind, barely dead.
You prefer to trade cryptocurrency instead of holding for long term, right?
And the best coins to rise, for the next episode of Scalepocalypse is Ltc?

Rumour going around bitcoin looks like its getting pumped so some big miners maximize their return as they exit and buy cheap bitcoin cash.



We also have McAfee and Jihan Wu from Bitmain backing it even though Wu earlier was one of the loudest voice for 2x.Even Lukedashjr said he preferred BCH over LTC for micropayments,sidechain etc making poor coblee cry  :'(

I had already explained in this thread and/or the companion thread linked from the OP, that from the moment the NYA was announced, I realized Wu had a scheme up his sleeve and that they would defect from 2x in November so that there is a new confusion about the Scalepocalypse outcome and the big blockers then having only BCH and LTC as options with LTC also having SegWit2x.

Then maybe later comes the SegWit1x theftathon to ramp up the profits of the oligarchies behind the curtain who own the only two 14nm/16nm ASIC fabs in the world and who I think are actually behind these mining cartels. And I believe those are the Zionists (aka the banksters who control the central banks by pulling strings behind the curtain, etc).

Their coup (the magic that is referred to in Revelation) is to fool us into believing we are defeating them with Bitcoin when in fact they are taking everything from us with Bitcoin (https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/i-told-you-i-do-not-have-time-for-a-debate-at-this-time-d985e82d5b24) (over the long-term). Those of us getting rich on Bitcoin are just pawns. They will take that wealth back from us later with their total world order control.

Yet my upbeat stance (https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/im-upbeat-2be2526869c4) is they are destroying themselves (yet they will take most of the sheep down with them as Revelation predicts).

understand that the moment that such situations are more afraid of those people who are big holders of Bitcoin. But I do not understand what to fear us, ordinary users crypto, and what can we lose in this regard? I'm worried, but I can not understand anything about what to expect in November.

Brock Pierce:

https://youtu.be/m_EKremz6ek?t=2442

Basically he sees the possibility of a crash and is giving a $10000 price as a possible peak.

Here is more info on Brock (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904415.msg23909562#msg23909562).

---

FOr something like Crypto winter happens, it would be necessary a crash back to below 3k. So, something like 100 billion would disappear in a matter of days. I think this is impossible. People would still need and wanted to sell some BTC but we will have more people coming to the marketing buying.

“It can never happen” is the attitude we need for it to happen.

Nevertheless it is quite plausible that after a minor correction from $8 - 10k down to maybe $5 - 6k, then we could get another move up in Q1 2018. The bubble could possibly run much further and become much more extreme, maybe even continuing on throughout 2018. Or not.

I am thinking an exhale into altcoins may be coming after Nov. 15 or 25th, similar to August.

Grandmothers holding the 90+% of ICO tokens which will go to zero (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2346790.msg24063665#msg24063665) is something I am keeping my eye on.

Crypto winter if it ever comes (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2550946.0) could be due to any one of the following reasons:

So maybe new predictions from OP?

It is already december and bitcoin price is now as twice as its price last october when OP share info in this thread do you think the crisis mention would still happen?

I will not pray for what happened then to repeat itself again as this time around it will be very bad for some of us that keep holding our bitcoin. I think we should try to help ourself by saying something good about bitcoin. The way I think it will happen may not be like a clash but a serious correction that will lower the price toward $10,000 after trading around $25,000 early next year. Because I believe this winter that when price fell it will rise again by people buying low than when it is now.

He is permanently banned, so he is not allowed to post ever again. If he posts again, he will be banned again.

Notice upthread he did mention the possibility of $10,000+ and even $50,000.

Winter will come, that is evident, but you can't deny that summer will come again :p
What James A. Donald said is 100% true and no one can deny the fact that Bitcoin these days have nothing to do with what Satoshi Nakamoto was expecting.
All people here just want to make as much profit as possible and no one thinks about supporting the network.
Mining is becoming more centralized and big companies are becoming more dominating which have nothing to do with the concept of Bitcoin: decentralization.
Will that ruin the Bitcoin !! I don't think so.

Honestly, everyone knows there are bearish and bullish phases in any markets.
The problem is WHEN.

If you keep saying "I think the market is going to burst" when BTC is $10K, then eventually it bursts at $50K, you then say "I told you so."

IMHO, no, you haven't

Note the author of the OP followed up and made his prediction/expectation of when the crypto winter will come more concrete:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2550946.0

You've been surprised with LTC lately?making huge moves, now even 0.05 seems more realistic

If you are saying high rise a winter than it is here and if you are talking against it then this will not happen this is real world and people are very possessive about bitcoin now and they don’t want to see any fall here and all this will take them to the more waiting time and after all bitcoin has come so high and people are expecting much more here and I wish it will rise more higher to the 30k till the end of this good year,

Corncube when crypto winter arrives is there any alt coins to park current gains.  I woukd rather leave things in cryptocurrecy but not lose whatever gains made along the way.....hope this makes sense. 

Looking back at this thread after a month makes me laugh about this so called crypto winter. Its only shows that this market is really based on pure speculation and no one can tell with absolute what will happen to the ecosystem. Bearish and Bullish really can't get all along. LOL.

We all know for a fact, that this kind of upward trend is not sustainable long term, minor hiccups could be seen. However, I can't seems to comprehend while people needed to open a thread with all this doomsday prediction about bitcoin. What's their main goal? Create FUD? or just warn ordinary investors like me?  :)

Crypto winter didn't arrived yet, but when it comes, I'm sure that all of us has plan B for it, because we all know that this market is very volatile than at any day now, it could crash. But if you are well prepared, then nothing to worry about, I suppose.

Note James A. Donald flipped his stance:


Contrast the above comments on what gives Bitcoin value to the misunderstanding in the mass media:


Bitcoin is a PRIVATIZED reserve currency, store-of-value asset, not a medium-of-exchange! As faith in PUBLIC institutions collapses, Bitcoin is the new gold, precisely as was written in the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Which correlates with Martin Armstrong's 51.6 year oscillating shift between (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-6th-wave-shift-pubic-to-private/) PRIVATE assets (e.g. gold and now Bitcoin) and PUBLIC institution assets (e.g. sovereign bonds). Real estate isn't entirely a private asset, because taxes have to be paid to the government, no one has an allodial title, and the government can seize the land for emminent domain.

There is no crypto winter now. The price of the miners is very high.