Bitcoin Forum

UPDATES AND NEWS:

1. If you have bitcoins that are yours and you want them back or need a refund, send a support message through the site then (apparently) dicebitcoin will deal with you.

Discuss everything here guys! (the main thread has been locked) His last post was:


EDIT

The thing is: This excuse makes people believe you aren't scamming, when in fact you could be by playing as a whale (or taking some on the side). It makes you seem 'honest' for not having run at 7k, 6 or 4k BTC which leads to people not chasing after you/doxxing you/hunting you down. It's a simple tactic.

It's great Manl paid everyone who withdrew, yes.

I'm not some sort of troll and have never been part of another dice site apart from JD. But would like an explanation for this Mateo account.

Edit: and why betting was not suspended when he was clearly raping.

the cold wallet is empty... meaning i lost my 0.3 BTC?
jeesh... I made a support ticket, but apparently it's no use. That's really depressing to come home to.

Can you people stop advertising them! Remove those ads from your signatures, it's an insult for us who lost money

PM me later, I can probably point you in the direction of some good UI designers for when you make your next website under a fresh name.



I guess I'm just beginning to enter my scam detection prime. If I couldn't stand competition I probably wouldn't be involved in the most competitive market in bitcoin.  :D Guess you didn't get the last word after all either.

i dunno what to say.
i put borrowed money on the site. now gone?

This just happened :

 https://i.imgur.com/NYIsjTr.png

It's good that he even responded in the thread.

I think hes in a "personal crisis" atm.. he didn't sound that happy.

maybe they also had reversed cheat for mateo?

Btw, what's up with the 1.2k BTC that just got invested?

https://i.imgur.com/fvWGKGo.png

It is actually only 500 if you look at the top, but still wondering where it came from as well.

report back with the nonces and see if any skipped.  keep them HONEST!! IF they insist on operating still, someones gotta look out for everyone.

What's the fucking point of wearing the sigs for the next 3 weeks? If everyone hit the max post count, the 10 BTC won't be sufficient, we should cancel the campaign and divide the funds proportionally to ranks.

Dooglus, Bitcoininformation, any thoughts?

They may get back to you, just wait around! Hope all goes ok for you :-\


That. But everything is pointing to him being a scammer, unfortunately. As one user stated before:

Maybe they increased the BR and invested so "better" could be scammed. Not sure if he is aware(but can't be sure if he is not them either)

That's the best possible route to take currently. We need a response ASAP. (maybe even add a little extra for everyone if there is enough, for all the trouble and so the 10btc get distributed fairly)

in the meantime marco, i suggest you take down your sig for DB

Not a word about that mateonlger shit ? Wow. He just signed his own death warrant.

Aww he is mad at PRCDice cuz some guys over there figured out he was cheating the users :(

Then now he doesn't recommend PRC, a site that has been online for ~18 months, cuz it doesn't look as fancy as his scam site.




Either way recommending or complaining about another site seems completely irrelevant and inappropriate, after obviously someone just won a lot of BTC by using the server seed. Maybe replying a bit more on that and a bit less on others.

i think bitcoininformation and dooglus must colaborate to count every single post with detail especially SPAMMING post

Ah...i think this is the end of diceBitCoin

you change your signature  ;D

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
( DICEBITCO.IN (https://dicebitco.in) | → THIS IS THE END ← (https://dicebitco.in) | BRAVO MATEO (https://dicebitco.in) | @Official Thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.0) | @Twitter (https://twitter.com/dicebitcoin))
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Unfortunately, I shouldn't until BitcoinInformation and Dooglus sort the payments out (I want to, but if I do, I will forfeit all earnings made :-\ and its quite a chunk)

last month with 100 ppl and higher rates, we paid ~12 btc in total. now rates are lower and post count less. 10 btc are enough to cover it.

PRC Dice looks great though

Give me back my 0.3 BTC!
1HszoAk4WCfthq93NJm9J7XFSputmxE2sk

Quote from Manl AKA Mateo AKA ScamMasterSexy

"Note 6: For crowdfunded i suggest you dice.ninja    Cool developers, cool guys.  By NO MEANS dont go to PRCDice. You will end up blind."

PRC users detect obvious rig and put him out of business. Thanks to "finnile" and "Bazza" over at PRC for pointing out that Manl & Gerry and the infamous anonymous "engineer" can't scam anyone any more.

Invest at your own risk. PRC is still in operation after 18 months. Think about that.

ricky out

If I were you I would just try to refrain from posting in threads that attract a lot of newbs. I mean, if you post in a thread like this with that signature it's safe to assume there's no harm done

the FUD cycle in the gambling business is dangerous

Why continue to advertise for a scam site? Is that an okay thing to do around these parts?


Please change your signature to 110% house edge to reflect the reality of DiceShitco.in


Thank you

I understand fully. I will add a message in the signature.

The only reason I am continuing to advertise them is due to a large amount that needs to be paid out.

I will edit in a message now!

Please change to 110% house edge so no more people get scammed.

You just caused a lot of people to lose hundreds of Bitcoins and the thing you worry most about is that some other site has a white background?

If that's the only thing that you can say wrong about PRCDice.eu then I guess I am doing something right.

Really though. What you have done is terrible for everyone in Bitcoin gambling and Bitcoin in general.
Can we not go a month without some new greedy scam site coming and stealing peoples money?

You just popped up out of nowhere, anonymous and no real track record yet everyone flocked to you and trusted you because of dooglus. Now you recommend another site that has been around even less time? Ridiculous.

The truth is that most people will be scared to put their coins anywhere, investing or gambling, because of this crap happening all the time.

I don't blame them.

Hopefully in time people will recover from this and we can get back to people feeling they can play or invest in bitcoin gambling safely.

Doog and Bitcoininformation seem like reasonable guys.  They should clear up the campaign stuff ASAP before any miscommunication happens.. which happens quickly in btcland.

Gosh this a a sad day for some people as they had liked the dice site, are you going to close the site or u gonna still stay if you do keep ur sig open still?

If only people invested in sites like PocketRocketsCasino (in operation since April 2013) things like this might not happen.

Are there any dice sites under a week old I can invest 1,000s of BTC in? Please advise.

Fucking hell.  Are you kids completely incapable of giving anybody the benefit of the doubt?  You keep repeating the same tirades over and over again keeping this useless argument at the front of the forum.  Manl paid back bitcoins to the best of his ability.  Case closed.  Fucking get over your circle jerk.

Stop giving him the benefit of the doubt. Anyone related to a site that has crashed and burned should be GUILTY UNTIL PROVEN INNOCENT. Not to get on his nerves but to decide if it was in fact a scam.

Mt. Gox was given benefit of doubt, look where that got us.

Final cold wallet funds ended up in these 2 addresses. Are we expected to believe nobody has withdrawn since then? Not one single satoshi?

https://blockchain.info/address/1N61semERRahc7ivnDT9botTzU8GmZ3bP3
https://blockchain.info/address/132cHaSFGVbakQVsSwzR1Y3QPFXZ1WPyi1

Someone explain why the last of the cold wallet funds reside here and are untouched.

Give me back my 0.3 BTC!
1HszoAk4WCfthq93NJm9J7XFSputmxE2sk

Jeesh, i'm not going to recommend bitcoin to anyone else... The technology behind the bitcoin protocol seems very reliable to me, but the community just sucks...
Nothing but dishonest people. I have been scammed so many times, even though i myself have been so honest to others. I made a zero-profit bitcoin faucet handing out so much money, i helped people repair their bitcoin wallets containing ten's of BTC, never asking a bitcent in return. And yet i'm the one who always gets scammed one way or another.

No more bitcoin investing for me...

To be fair to Dice.ninja this is not their first dice site. They are also the developers and admins of Jpcdice.com and Darkdice.net. Although Dice.ninja is only a few weeks old they have been running dice sites for much longer.

don't say bitcoin is poop because of this.  the protocol and technology have little to do with the people doing business in bitcoins.  i would say please protect yourself.  trust is at a minimal in a trustless currency protocol.  we'll have to learn to abide by new rules in which we protect ourselves from harmful situations.

I can vouch for this fact.

so a newbbie defending these sites, this got to be suspicious?  any others can confirm the facts about this?

And how will anybody benefit if this is indeed proven as a "scam"

Ever since I've joined the Bitcoin community, I've grown to loathe that word.

I know. I fully trust the bitcoin protocol. But definetly not the community. I will be more careful simply by not using anything that's centralised.

Yes I know, they have a couple others, they are all still relatively new though.

They also claimed to never have heard of PRC.

If I was investing in a new site I would expect them to at least know their competition especially if they had
a few sites and are supported heavily by omahapoker of cryptobettingindex, that site which lists all the top dice sites of which PRC is 2nd on the list for top investment.

Martijnvdc, I sympathise with you. I have 0.1 BTC sitting in DB, been trying to withdraw for hours. Seeing their hot and cold wallet is dry, and that I don't get any feedback from the support ticketing system, it is starting to look very bad.

Should I wait? Anyone in the same situation? Anyone with more information?

Look what happened when DiceBitcoin used that as 'trust' "oh we already have a big litecoin dice site, so please trust us". Nope

People will stop discussing wether or not he was trustworthy. It will be case close, finished, done. Next thing.

Only imaginary golden buttcoins were lost... in an illegal gambling site. So basically no legal action can be taken.

Still...

Why don't we try to build a social profile for this shithead(s). Put a name on the suspect(s) (notice I didn't say thief/scammer).

Collecting all chat history, hints (timezone etc.)... Judging from his below average intelligence, his "good" coding skills, his arrogance, etc.. I'd say it's

• a male
• in his early 20s
• not a native US or UK citizen, most probably RU, UA
• ...any idea ?

@dicebitcoin
1) You're guilty. You(they) and his relatives are in immediate danger. You'll hide as long as you can. You take the risk of getting caught and... god know what can happen.
2) You're not (that) guilty. You(they) and his relatives are in immediate danger. You'll hide as long as you can. You take the risk of getting caught and... god know what can happen.
3) You're guilty. You go public (real name, contact info etc) and you confess. So you may get some kind of attention, seek some security. Still, you take the risk of facing someone who wants his buttcoins (or justice) and... only god knows the rest.
4) You're not (that) guilty. You go public (real name, contact info etc) and tell "the thruth" (your side of story). So you may get some kind of attention, seek some security. Still, you take the risk of facing someone who want buttcoins (or justice) and... only god knows what can happen.

I have the feeling you want to be believe that
5) You're not (that) guilty. You don't go public. You've already told your side of the story. Still, you take the risk of facing someone who want buttcoins (or justice) and... only god knows what can happen.

From my POV basically you're fucked. Feel free come here and confess how (un)safe you feel anytime.

Scenario 48484) you've come to an arrangement with the thief because you (or he) threatened him (you) with death.


Buh.. I really want to know the only TRUE story.

Wait a bit and I'm sure they will respond.

people will doxx him as many have lost hundreds of BTC so in irl its going to be tough

This is amazing ! Very very amazing  ::)  .

Likely scenario is that people will attempt to acquire a full dox of him. I can already imagine him coming back and "arranging a deal with the thief, where the thief agreed to pay half back, blahblahblah." This would be a sure sign he was in fact the scammer (probably). This situation is not unlike everydice.

I think their mistake was to not halt betting when the issue was discovered. This would likely have stopped a panic among plays and investors which lead to the decline of his credibility. If betting was halted then they could have looked at the code very closely to make sure there are not any other outstanding issues that could cause problems.

Their second mistake was to rush to refund people's losses right away. They should have kept track of the losses, investigated thoroughly to make sure the losses were legitimate and if so issue a refund. Handing out these refunds likely scarred investors away which ultimately lead to having a bank roll that is not capable of sustaining a little bit of bad luck.

I also would have certainly rolled back all of mateo's bets. Him winning that much is just not realistic. The odds of him having that great of a winning streak are just not there. He had to have somehow had advance knowledge of the server seed and acted accordingly. This is another reason why betting should have been stopped and why the code should have been more closely inspected.

I would not say 100% that this was in fact a scam by dicebitco.in as it would have been much easier to simply run off with the bankroll and delete the database with all the account information. I would however certainly say that a scam was pulled off.

Any still nobody can answer my post regarding the "hot wallets"

From my observations, the BTC on DiceShitco.in isn't real BTC. It's just numbers on a screen that can't be withdrawn.

Somebody please prove me wrong. I would be happier about this if I was wrong.

Most likely some if not most of the btc from those hot wallets you pointed out will be used to 'payout' users. (these payouts might just be mixing of the coins to their own addresses.)

So the unfortunate souls still invested or with balances on the site just get nothing?

I think : yes ...

If I had to guess it is the funds they invested in the bankroll that they used to refund user's losses.

So you plan to keep the campaign running for the whole month, and pay out as usual?

Can you work out how much is due to each participant, and we'll pay them? I never worked out how to tell what is "constructive" on a forum full of trolls anyway.

I guess lots of participants will change their signature before the end of the month and so won't get paid - that will mean the 10 BTC is enough to pay the remaining people.

Here's the reply i got from my support ticket:


Yep, i lost my 0.3 BTC...

I've not looked at the numbers involved, but is it possible that those addresses belong to a couple of large investors who successfully withdrew their coins?

1N61semERRahc7ivnDT9botTzU8GmZ3bP3 is me. Apparently had to wait until dicebitcoin woke up but no problem withdrawing. https://i.imgur.com/vt87J8T.png

What if one of the dice ops attacked them by hiring a hacker, but then why not close site betting then?  This is what bugs me

You people do realize that you're talking about doxxing somebody that is proven to have paid back the losers, right?

I am saying what if it was a dice site that hired someone to do this to them on purpose I wouldnt be surprised, but in compepetion there can be dirty ops invovled

But not proven to have stolen bitcoins and/or refunded everyone.

Support ticket answered, and I got my bitcoin back. Still cannot believe it, but wanted to share, not all hope is lost.

Weird, alot of newbies coming out with accounts registered a few months ago.. and claiming to have gotten a withdrawal.. hmmm. Proof please?

ok coming from a newbie not helpful but i guess is some what of a good sign?????

Huh?? they said they wouldn't refund my 0.3 BTC!!

By the looks of it this wasn't "a little bit of bad luck".

From what I'm hearing people who stayed invested for Mateo have lost around 85% of their investment. Losing 85% of your site's bankroll with a dynamic 0.5% max profit is more than just "a little bit of bad luck".

Everybody who thinks it is a little bit of bad luck with Mateo should try http://botdice.com/. Input the right numbers and try to repeat Mateo's lucky streak to win 550 BTC. Hint: not gonna happen (max I saw was 180 BTC profit after 10k bets but then it went south fast)

you are Mateo...just admit it!   :D   ~u a fool

mateo would have to win 380 MAX BETS at 49.5/2x in a row to do that sort of damage.  And remember that Mateo was betting no where near the Max Bet in the beginning.  His biggest bets being 2BTC?  or was it 1.  i forget already.

Welp as an investor, I lost 2.5 of my 3 bitcoins. I came home from an exhausting workday to find the bankroll had been eaten alive, therefore me making a larger % of the roll, had lost 2.5 bitcoins to this "Mateo". Before leaving for work, I had a decent profit.

As a college student, this is a lot of money to me, especially considering I bought at $900+

This type of shenanigans makes me want turn my back on Bitcoin. Its been nothing but a massive money pit - I lose money at every turn. Dooglus is the light in a dark environment. He provided trust to a trust-less system. He is knowledgeable, trustworthy, helpful and ran a service that was second-to-none. He is one of the most respectful figures I've seen in the Bitcoin space. After I found out he was promoting a new site I could invest in, well, my ears perked up.

I should have known better than to chase after "the next Just-Dice". I have only myself to blame for losing more than I could have afforded to. I took a stupid risk.

Dooglus, If you're reading this, please move to Mexico so you can open Just-Dice again! /comic relief

He was betting at 0.75 when the max profit was 0.8, I remember seeing. (all on 2x payout)

It looks like the site will keep running? Trollbox is gone, but there is still a "bankroll" showing (can it be verified to exist?) and people are still gambling there currently.

he was betting at 1 when max was around 2.5.  i dont remember if he had started playing before the BR crash to 500.  Does anyone remember him playing at bankroll around 1500?

like I said they should roll back mateos bets. But a bankroll that has players betting the max a high percentage of the time will be adversely affected if one person has a little bit of good luck. I would say that not all of the 15% losses that investors sustained were from him (most probably were) but some percentage were from other legit players who had a lucky streak and stopped.

So what's the deal? Was Mateo just really, really lucky or was there something fishy going on (i.e. he found an exploit in the system)?

Bankroll management. Don't invest what you can't miss. Consider it a lesson ;)

Any news from dicebitcoin regarding this? Who invested another 500BTC in the site??? This is just wrong

In other thread he said something about the rogue employee who also inserted some malicous code for skipping losing bets (setting bet amount to zero) for his own account. So that might be the cause. Even if Manl's intentions were good, it is a huge fuckup on BD side. He should have stopped betting/withdrawals and thoroughly investigate before doing anything to make it all even worse.
I divested and withdrew as soon as I found out he started to refund. At that time I wasn't sure if he would be able to cover all of the losses as he had still no clue about the extent of the damage done and was investigating just one account at a time.
I wanted to return back once all is settled (even if he would decide to rollback the bets and profit on my BD account would be negative). Now, when the site is -330 BTC down, all trust is gone. Sad to see another dice site fail.

Too late, from what I've heard and read around here, it seems a withdrawal was processed for mateo which adds to the dishonesty. To think that dicebitcoin would still payout after all the chaos, instead of suspending betting is just completely incomprehensible.

Looks like mateo 'won' 500 coins from the bankroll and then became the bankroll. The run he went on is near impossible (waiting for someone less lazy to work out the standard deviation), couple that with the incredibly weird betting pattern of mass betting for long periods followed by a long pause then repeating. ADD that to the fact this happened the day after the sites biggest security flaw....

ok i got my coins back.. thanks OP

Have any proof?

For reference for others:

I have been wanting to start a "News" section on my website for a while now, just haven't had time with other projects. This whole, unfiltered story will be a great piece to start the section. I will try to do it unbiased, but will definitely list all the proofs that Mateo was most likely manl, and that they were skipping High Roller's (for the most part) winning bets, etc. I will make sure to pimp out some SEO with it so that whenever future people Google DiceBitco.in (if it still exits then) thinking about investing/playing, my story will come up and they will be forewarned and hopefully prevented from being scammed. I'll definitely post a link here to the story when it's done.

this is my client.. it shows withdrawals from DB

here
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6m7xvnkgk2yjlsg/dicebetcoin-bitcointalk.png?dl=0

uh.. should have cut the whole address section.. nvm..

This is the transaction from DB:

https://blockchain.info/tx/895089f71ce05b9b5d673779592494b5a0dac74a350c67b3612e9958fe04ff8e

I wasn't able to withdraw before due to a bug (i left 1 satoshi in the site).

Having said this, I've never ever going to deposit anything in that site, just in case ...

now i do believe that the dev didn't purposely plan this event.
Maybe it was the bad employee thing.

hope after this is settled the dev would write something about this event.

thanks dev for the withdrawals.

EDIT: however I did lose 2 BTC martingaling yesterday or the day before.. didn't check for the skip nonce bug.

I don't know. The user who posted directly below your post seems to own the smaller of the two, but the remainder has been moved here.

https://blockchain.info/address/1NLdqkJRooQqHHBycnXEdA9R5N5TJb2biB

This accounts for the entire remainder of the sites cold wallet, yet people are claiming they were paid out. Maybe I'm missing something huge or blatantly obvious.

My support ticket said they wouldn't pay back my 0.3 BTC...
Here's the quote again:

It's a scam... They claim i was affected positively, even though they stole my money...

Have you read anything with a source to confirm that his funds were actually withdrawn, or was it just speculation?

I am certain that he was somehow cheating. Even if dicebitco did check his bets and they turned out to look legit I would have not paid him and risked being called a scammer because of the high chances of him cheating even if it couldn't be proven.

I think they continued to process withdrawals so they would have the appearance of being honest. They had the reserves to cover the withdrawals so they took the risk of paying out that much bitcoin at once so people couldn't accuse them of scamming. This did not work, it only allowed the scammer to get away with more (if the scammer and dicebitco are one and the same is another question).

just wondering, was doog staff on the site or was he just a major investor?

i believe he was just an investor and someone who look after the escrow for sig marketing, not a staff.. pls correct me if i'm wrong.

I was at work today. I had no idea the theft was going on until it was much too late. And apparently the owner will not refund me, either.

can escrow pay us money for are signature at least??!

I think all investors should be able to see mateo's bets verified to prove he wasn't playing a +EV rigged dice game. Maybe he was lucky enough to have nonces skip only on losing bets?

Who cleans out a bankroll flat betting on a -EV game?

This is fucked up.The site looked great and admin was always online and now this!  :-\

And what will happen with the signature payment?Will we be paid?

it would be fair that all 5 btc goes to 100 members so everyone gets now each 0.1 btc

or if there is 10 that everybody gets 0.2btc

Then I guess that's what is left in the hot wallet.

It keeps moving from address to address as people withdraw and the rest is spent as 'change' to a new address in the hot wallet.

dooglus can you please look into signature campagain

that we get are money from it please

I was nothing to do with the site other than:

* playing a lot (winning about 35 BTC)
* investing around 50 BTC (which grew to around 85 BTC with my gambling wins)
* wearing their signature here for a month
* holding 5 BTC in escrow for their signature campaign in case they fail to pay
* being made a chat moderator (able to mute / unmute people in the chat)

So not a "major" investor - I was around 2% of the bankroll at my peak.

The escrowed bitcoins will be used to pay the users signed up at the end of the month?

See here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.msg8730848#msg8730848) and the following posts.

In short the plan is that we're going to pay as normal at the end of the month if DB themselves don't.

If you want to pull out now, you can do, and we'll pay a quarter of the normal rate, since only a quarter of the current month has passed - unless DB keeps running the campaign, in which case it'll be up to them who to pay out; I imagine they would say that if you drop their signature after a week you get nothing.

Second reply to my open ticket...
So somehow this bug didn't affect me?? This is a downright SCAM.
The website malfunctions, allowing a player to cheat and steal the money from the investors...

Douglus and Bitcoininformation already said befroe they will pay the signature campaign.
I do not think there is any issue after they said, then why asking same question everytime.

@dooglus if you can pay us now if possible each 0.1 btc or something like that

because obviously dicebitcoin is a scam!

I didn't have access to my login details for DB until today because i locked them in a safety deposit box over the weekend, I was able to get into my account just now and found this:

Profit was at 172BTC when i deposited now profit is at -329BTC.

out of 10BTC invested 3 days ago only 1.6BTC is available for withdraw.

I asked manl in chat to trigger my emergency withdraw over the weekend when I found out they were cheating!

I could of got my coins back! but he ignored that request now I'm down 9btc. I should be refunded.

https://i.imgur.com/sa3ymtz.jpg

But 110% means they'd be paying you :0

read my posts.
I opened a support ticket for that, and they say investors are not affected by the bug, because you had the chance to divest... It's a fucking scam.

Can anyone please explain to me how I can verify my bets?

I knew that it was a good idea to withdraw on sunday so I asked manl in chat to trigger my emergency withdraw!

I had an emergency address locked into my account and everything.

manl ignored my request to activate the withdraw, I didn't think they would drain the entire bankroll in one day so I worked all day.

I can't skip work easy so the reason I think I should be refunded is I asked him to trigger the withdraw but he didn't.

Also the reason for my investment being is wiped IS directly related to the bug because if they didn't cheat the bankroll wouldn't of shrunk so much that it syphoned 90% of my coins. If this didn't happen losing 500 coins on tha bankroll would be 1/10 of what it was.

There's no way around it I had to wait until today to check it. I should be refunded 9btc I sent a support ticket.

It's a scam, they didn't halt the betting, they just let it continue, to steal money from the investors like you and me.

can someone please PM me to help me verify some bets.

But you didn't divest, even though you could easily have done so... That would have protected you.

I said there was no way I could get access to my account until monday, my login details were written on paper and locked in a safety deposit box so I couldn't be tempted to gamble.

my safety deposit box is at a bank that is closed Sunday. I had NO WAY to get into my account when this all went down, i was in chat trying to get them to trigger my emergency btc address withdraw but they kept ignoring me!

^brazen sockpuppet!!!..haha now so what you are saying : you scammed + 35BTC ? wow ~ smooth job ! :) *epic*

not scammed

he won it fair and sqaure :)

I see, I missed that part. I understand your frustration but I don't think you can blame the operator for failing to follow orders from an unauthorized user.

OK. Lets be serious

You decided to call it a day and give up on DB, I understand, don't blame you for the decision. But why the hell do you want us to carry on with the signatures till the end of the month?

Can't you just give both Dooglus and Bitcoininformation a 'green light' to pay everyone sooner? I suggest giving both of them 0.25 for their trouble, and divide the remaining 9.5BTC proportionally to the rank (it's not complicated, I can do the calculation if needed).

In such scenario, everyone should be happy, people would generally get paid slightly less then when reaching max post count, but would be paid sooner and with no further need of posting. Dooglus + Bitcoininformation would get the whole escrow sorted sooner (+would get paid a little) and you wouldn't have to do all the posts verification. Everybody wins.

Sounds reasonable?


Ps I won't have much trouble in reaching the max post count (and I don't spam and am not very active), if other hit the max too, then 10BTC is not enough. If that happens - it's gonna get pretty messed up + there's a risk that Doog and BTCinformation will end up (involuntarily) being responsible for verification of posts.

EDIT: If everyone reaches max post count, it would total 18 BTC

About that get-paid-for-spamming (aka signature-) campaign, I don't get it. How you dare considering yourself eligible for any buttcoin, how can you even show your face here when
1) some gamblers were cheated and lost big butts (yes, not receiving butts you won is a loss)
2) all (remaining) investors were cheated and lost big butts (edit) when mateonlgry came
What did you signature-campaign leeches risk huh ? Nothing. And no, e-reputation doesn't exist. Oh yeah, maybe you're number #237817 on the kill-list of some of the real victims here.

Most people wouldn't promote the site if they knew it was fraudulent. They trusted it was legit, just like the gamblers/investors. And why the fuck do you assume that sig campaign participant cannot also be gambler/investor?

Since I never got a response from DB and the thread was locked. Are they really not going to pay out winning bets? Have they considered what this will do to gambler confidence in their future reincarnation of DB?

So right now, there is about 610 BTC that was stolen via manl's alt account matteo (profit went from +280 to -330 in less than 24 hours!!). That's pretty serious. The majority of investors who left coins on the site haven't checked the site in 24 hours and they will be in for a shock. I really feel bad for them. These are the true victims -- they were a huge portion of the small bankroll when "matteo" starting betting and are totally (90% or so) wiped out.

My theory: Manl wanted to slowly siphon bitcoin but did in an unbelievable brazen and stupid way (Maybe he got impatient? I can't explain why he would do it in such an obvious way -- stupidity I guess. He was probably losing patience on how little the site was making and how much profit he could skim each day.). When he was caught his whole plan unravelled and instead of running off with the whole bankroll (which would put a MASSIVE target on his back) he allowed the majority of investors to get their coins out. Seems like he is going to make out with 600-1000 BTC from the scam which is unbelievable. He didn't think he could get away with stealing 7000 btc but has the audacity to think he can steal 600-1000 BTC.

The sad part is people actually believe some parts of his story. Come on people... By the way, for fun can someone explain the math of how monstrously improbable Matteo's run of "luck" (fraud) was?

I don't see the point any more, even if all of them were rigged you won't get your money now

Let X_i be the random variable modeling the profit of each bet.

Assumptions:
1) profits went from 260 to -330, that is manlteo's profit = (+/-) 600btc
2) N=60k bets of 1btc each @ 2x payout
3) math bullshit (iid random variables), q=0.495, P[X=+1] = q, P[X=-1] = 1-q.

Let S= X_1+X_2+ ... + X_60000. We should expect E(S)= 60000 x ( 1x0.495 + (-1)x0.505 ) = -600 (a loss).

We want to know P[S >= 600]. Central limit theorem states that  [S - E(S)] / stdev(X)*\sqrt(N) =: Z is normally can be approximated by a normal distribution N(0,1).

var(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 = q+1-q - (2q-1)^2 = 4q(1-q) = 0.9999, so stdev ~ 1

So
P[S >= 600] ~= P[Z >= [600 -(-600)] / (1*\sqrt(N)) ] = P[Z>= 1200/244] = 1-P[Z<=4.89922] = 4.8x10^-7.

That probability is almost zero. I'd say you are few orders of magnitude more likely to die, along with 1 million people at the same time, before you finish reading this, than to have maeonlgerry's luck.

Edit1...
Edit2...
Woot my mistakes! See my post here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8754421#msg8754421).

Mistake? They were asked repeatedly to do just that, even before the mass exodus of investors. The fact that they didn't and blissfully claimed that the issue has been resolved is as much of a smoking gun as about a dozen other facts in this story.

Reading comprehension never was your strong point was it.

thank you for this

They received the advise to not allow bets to continue. They made the business decision to not stop bets as they were likely trying to avoid any downtime. I think they were hoping that allowing betting to continue and not stopping withdrawals would allow them to maintain their credibility. It was a calculated risk that did not work in their favor.

Or it worked very much in their favor. I was ready to give manl the benefit of the doubt as he seemed to be a reasonable bloke before this whole fiasco. But the way he mishandled this situation is beyond belief, even if you assume that everything he said was true. He's sitting on a $3m pile of OPM and what's the first thing he does after the site is compromised? Hastily rolls back the code and insists everything is great. Starts issuing half-assed refunds. Yells at anyone doubting his decisions. Closes chat and then the official thread. Proceeds to lose 80-90% of last investors' coins to a freaky lucky whale. Did I miss anything? Did he do anything that was even remotely rational?

I'm not even sure what he could possibly do or say to try to extract himself from this shit, if he'll be at all interested in that when he cools down. Maybe start with publishing mateo's lucky seeds and rolls.

From a financial standpoint yes, it worked out in their favor if you believe they were behind the "lucky whale". At this point saying that this is the case is pure speculation. Until the database can be audited (if this would happen, IDK) we really cannot say this as a fact. From a reputation standpoint it did not work in their favor.

I am curious to know how much of their own money they had invested in the site/bankroll, the estimated gains by mateo et el, and the estimated amount of money they refunded investors and victims of the nonce issue. I think this would give a better picture as to what they were able to potentially have scammed and what the ROI on their scam was. It would also paint a picture as to what their potential profit could have been if they had continued running as a legit site.

Their site is showing ~91k BTC bet (over it's lifetime?), this would have an EV of ~910 BTC profit for the bankroll, and an EV of ~91 BTC for their 10% commission on bankroll profits. Assuming they have been in operation for 6 weeks this works out to ~15 BTC per week, or ~780 BTC per year, or ~$390,000 per year before expenses.

They had 200 BTC of their own investment initially. Site went from +280 to -330 during mateo's lucky run, so that's 600.

I don't know exact amounts of refunds but considering that the site gained maybe 250-300 BTC during the period of time when the "rogue" code was in production, the refunds wouldn't have exceeded that. I think it was A LOT less than that since he was selectively refunding only certain deposits.

Keep in mind that ~half of that 90k BTC was wagered by mateo, and a large part of the remaining bets were tainted to an unknown extent by the "rogue employee", which makes any kind of revenue projection questionable at best.

Rolling back code to remove the commit written by the new employee was rational.

Thinking that rolling back his commit would leave a secure codebase was reasonable too, if that was his only commit.

Losing to a lucky whale isn't something he could control (unless he was the whale, or gave him the seed, of course). When a whale is playing, you don't want to stop him because he's probably going to end up losing back his gains.

The refund policy, the yelling, and removing chat were all questionable, as was not freezing betting for longer.

Just out of interest I wrote a program that simulated tens of thousands of dice rolls, over thousands of sessions.  Assuming a 100btc bankroll and a target bankroll of 600 (mateo took DB from about +250 to -300, so not unreasonable), over 10,000 sessions with a 1% edge the player didn't reach the target once against the house.  Sometimes it took just 2500 rolls, sometimes 45,000 or more, but the bust was inevitable.  Top bankroll was 378 across all sessions.  

Of course, we don't know how big mateo's bankroll was, but I would suggest it wasn't in the thousands.

DB rolled back the code, but did DB check all the PCs and servers for backdoors that would allow remote access and rigging of the game again?

I don't know, but apparently the employee didn't have access to the live server.

Edit:


It doesn't matter, because we know he didn't need it. He didn't lose thousands and win it back...

Off topic : Dooglus can you read my PM I sent you earlier? Thanks.

On topic:  So is he still re-funding investors when they withdraw? Or has he run off with the bankroll?

Now they have locked the main theard too >:(
Fucking scam I say.

And you are still displaying their signature while talking like this? At least remove the sig.

Could someone summarize what exactly happened ? I have lost track after the bug in the code that made people loose

apparently if they remove the sig, they lose out on the commissions from the sig campaign.. or a % of it at least.  But i agree.  the longer people keep up the sigs, the more people will still think of that site as being legitimate.

Start from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8714248#msg8714248

After the bug they gave an excuse that it was one of their employ who did it deliberately  and now the bug is fixed. Then people started divested as no one trusted them. Also, they stopped paying people who lost due to the bug. And once they ran out of funds, they probably created a player who knew the seeds and started flat betting and took the profits from +250 BTC to -332 BTC in a day, and tried to act as if it was no them.

Doog, if we now know (with 99.99999% certainty) that Mateo is a cheat, why didn't Manl take back Mateo's funds to refund investors that got devastated by that run?  What it does seem like is that instead, Manl took back the funds from Mateo's winnings and put it back into their bankroll.

Either that, or they allowed Mateo to withdraw and magically got 500BTC from a secret investor.

Thanks! it is really really crazy

I want my sig payment, thats why.

And you don't care if someone get's scammed by the scammer you advertise as long as you get your payment?

If they send coins to something just because they saw ad without doing any recearch about it they would lose them anyway.
There is even link in my sig to the offical theard that shows that it is clearly having problems.

Of course manl cheated everyone. The only right thing would be to suspend mateos betting. So this doesn't make many any sense at all..
When a massive bug like this appear you always suspend the betting or just "un-plug" the server until it's solved.

I read that someone wrote that they "didn't earn enough each day" from dicebitco.in.. but come on! They earned a lot from their investors.. because of the 10% commision.
I think they earned ~10 BTC in commision the first week after launch. That's a massive amount in my opinion.

Just think about the profits it would generate in the long-run.

Thanks for the explanation. this is crazy! unbelievable stuff, it all happened in two days...

Can someone with good knowledge of math confirm this?

just played there. won a bit and get my btcs back. dont look like a scam to me for now

No one has claimed it's a scam in that way. We are plenty who played and won, and I'm not sure if anyone has claimed they couldn't get their money withdrawn.

I still can't believe Dooglus and others actually believe that Matteo could have been a legitimate whale. Are you kidding me? Just the math + the timing alone is 99% of the proof you need. People are going to let Manl get away with stealing 600 + BTC. He decided to only steal from the pooled amount of smaller investors cause he thought he could get away with it (and judging by the responses in this thread, he is). Stealing from one of the 250+ BTC individual investors earlier would have put too much heat on his back.

Let me ask you this: Why the hell would a whale go to dicebitco.in during the first 12 hours of a massive scandal and bet 45,000+ BTC in 24 hours. Are you guys that naive?


   

what gave you a reason to think that somebody believes that mateo could have been a legitimate whale?

Scam or no, mateo being owner or lucky whale...people will forget about this in a week and move on. Only good thing is that no big harm was done, it could have me much worse.

looks like a nice pay day for manl:

https://blockchain.info/address/1N61semERRahc7ivnDT9botTzU8GmZ3bP3
https://blockchain.info/de/address/16t5UjxLNbKRMXUwXGxtHUUGTTmcKZSmQc

~666000 $ in the 2nd address

are you fucking kidding me  ??? ?

no harm was done?

after the scam with the skipped nounces was discovered they robbed the remaining investors (many who were at work or
couldn´t be online due to some other) reason by playing with knowing the server seeds!

and by this won at least 600000 $ (that´s more than a half million!!!)

i hereby donate all my lost gambling and signature moneys (about .25 bitcoins), to whomever got taken for $500,000

distribute it evenly pls

why 600000 $? site profit was 300 btc and now -300 btc. where other 600 btc?

commissions, rigging the profit display...

I guess the other 1% would be ACTUAL EVIDENCE then. Suspicious timing is not evidence. Someone winning is not evidence. Someone winning at a suspicious time is not evidence. I believe Matteo was an inside job too, the difference is I'm leaving open the possibility it wasn't. All this BS talk of improbability and unlikeliness and suspicious timing is just unsubstantiated speculation. Under the broken logic and dubious math you're all using, you know what else is suspicious? Everyone who's ever won the Powerball. It's SO suspicious that anyone would play or win a game with a 0% chance of winning!

Don't confuse someone who knows the difference between suspicious circumstances and evidence as someone who believes Matteo and manl are two different people. Just because you've convicted manl with missing pieces of information and while high on emotion and based on speculation doesn't mean everyone has such a low threshold for judgment.

I believe Matteo was an inside job, but I also acknowledge the possibility he was legitimate. It can't be worse odds than winning the Powerball.

Lol, it's more like 1000%

Not unplugging the site while he was playing would be like a banker witnessing a heist and not calling the cops.

I don't get it. Does people actually keep deposit and play on the site?

I see some high bets from time to time. They should just close it down and "re-open" when everyone have been re-funded etc.

This is a very toxic community. I have seen through so many scams and now I have stopped digging. Thankfully, there are these 2.0 cryptos which are quite interesting to look into.

Perhaps some people don't even come on "bitcointalk" and just don't know what happened..

I'm also wondering why these bitcoins weren't paid back ??? Are they mateo's coins or still part of the site's hot wallet?

well i think the ppl still betting either didnt get to know what happened,or just dont care.at least deposit and withdraw are still working,so for new ppl wich are not here maybe hardly to find out.

Or they still saw your/others signature which is still actively promoting a scam :\

We are not sure it is a scam. From what it seems it was an honest mistake, however with how everyone reacted many people were led to believe it was a scam.

We would need an independent audit of the code, books, betting, etc.  In a state governed casino or lottery such oversight is available.  As DB was an unlicensed and therefore unregulated entity then no such investigation is possible.  Hence the speculation.  We have no better alternative.


Incorrect, although I take the point you're making.  The chances of winning my local version of Powerball is about 1 in 43 million.  It's never zero and chances are someone is going to win every week or two, given enough entries.  What mateo did is quite different.  It wasn't one jackpot win of 500+ btc.  It was consistent betting over thousands of 'rolls'.  Looking at the results I would say mateo had the 1% edge against the house, not the other way around.

The above posters who stated the chances of mateo doing what he did as zero chance are clearly incorrect.  There's always a chance mateo could get very lucky.  But given the certain facts surrounding DB it's natural even a casual observer would have questions to ask.


We do know the site was rigged for around two weeks and did not work as advertised.  One could reasonably argue that given the other suspicious events at the site the threshold for judgment has been markedly lowered to the reasonable observer.

@LtPaxIV @marcotheminer

You both and the others who keeps their sign for btc is more GREEDY than DiceBitco. They stole a few hundreds BTC. If it's not enough for you I don't know why don't you have a fuckin brain?

You are fuckin greedy poors.

I'm not sure how a '2.0' crypto would help in a case such as DB where the site was rigged to function incorrectly, or a MtGox that disappears with funds, or a Bitconica where funds are stolen, etc.  Some '2.0' cryptos make things worse by making tracing stolen funds harder.

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong but I can't see how it's ok to just roll back code but leave the compromised database in place and tell everyone that issue was fixed when he apparently didn't know the extent of the damage nor did he have a sound plan to deal with it.

As for the lucky whale, even if I suspend my disbelief for a second and try to imagine it wasn't him, wouldn't the first round of ~120 BTC wins be enough of a clue that perhaps there is a backdoor in the code or something else not quite right.

Criminally reckless is the least I can say about all this. But the reality is probably much more "criminal".

dooglus, it wasn't just removing chat. He removed the ability for you to view the seed & nonce for other people's bets. This becomes awfully more suspicious when a whale then proceeds to win big while paying small variance bets.

Furthermore, according to the description the nonce rigging involved accounts marked in the database. This required a database schema update. I'd bet that the "developer" simply updated the database schema himself (people are lazy, ok?), instead of pushing out a commit with a schema and patching instructions. This would mean the "developer" had access to the database server, and could grab a server seed.

@marcotheminer: You should edit your signature to add a disclaimer about current events. EG: "[color = red] [b ]I do not endorse DiceBitco.in. DiceBitco.in may be untrustworthy. For more information, see [url == https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.0 ] this thread. [/url] [/b ] [/ color]

Leave him (macrotheminer) and others who carry the signature without updates negative trust - he is supporting a scam.

No one can be sure it is a scam, I understand where you guys are coming from and I will remove the signature ASAP.

No, you miss my point. I had stopped bothering about Bitcoin and related stuff due to all the greed and scams, but the interesting stuff made me hang around.

Sometimes I wish these were all just worthless, then we could marvel at the tech instead of seeing people lose their money.

I left macrotheminer negative trust:

[/b]This user is knowingly advertising a scam website, DiceBitco.in. For information on the DiceBitco.in scam, see this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774120.0

macrotheminer has refused to modify his signature to include information about the scamming activities. He has defended advertising a scam because "For some, the income we receive from these campaigns is a big portion"

This event has shown that macrotheminer will collude with scams for money. Completely untrustworthy. [/b]

I linked to this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8745331#msg8745331) as reference since it quoted macrotheminer's post (so he cannot modify it later). I encourage others to do the same, feel free to copy and paste the feedback.

Its an interesting dilemma. If people are going to neg rep you then should do that for all those who are sporting the cryptcominer or gawminer signatures. I suggest you add a banner to your posts disclaiming the signature or directing people to the relevant thread.

If its proven to some reasonable degree that they scammed (I am sure they did), then the escrow holders should take the call and divide up the money, or settle it with some lower pay.

Hey! I added a personal message.. Read it!

I'm asking those questions too. The difference is I'm asking the questions and not drawing foregone conclusions from those questions. I used "0%" sarcastically as a barb at the guy who posted a very convoluted bunch of math garbage to reach the conclusion that Matteo's odds of winning was 0%. It's not 0%, just like the odds of winning Powerball (1:175 million) is not 0%. I was not comparing the odds of Powerball to the likeliness of Matteo's win streak however. My overall point was that people use broken logic and bad math to reach a conclusion, which for the way it was reached is necessarily flawed. In this thread, the fact that something is extremely unlikely is proof that it is impossible. That's not how math works. If the odds are not literally 0, then it is possible, and if it is possible, without evidence of wrongdoing all you have is speculation. As I've already said, I find it compelling speculation and I myself believe Matteo is an inside job weighing all the information available, but I'm answering all the people who question why it's not universally accepted to be fact.

I'm operating under the assumption Matteo somehow stole the coins. I'm just not spreading that as gospel and belittling people who won't. Those are the people I'm taking issue with.


I agree! The fact that the code was originally rigged is perhaps the most important piece in this whole thing. This whole scenario is suspicious and people should NOT be gambling on the site anymore (which is still running). But it doesn't change anything I posted above about perpetuating suspicions as established facts.

The issue is that these two sites have not scammed yet. While I am confident that both of these sites will scam, IMHO I think pre-emptive actions are unfair.

Regarding the signature ads: The exchange is for displaying an ad. The exchange does not involve you astrosurfing or defending them. Why not continue to carry the signature, but add a visible disclaimer? You have a free line.

The contract is that I may only have the signature, unaltered in the space. I added a personal message however.

Sorry but that's continuing misrepresentation (aka Lying by omission).

You are aware that:

* DiceBitco.in has admitted that their services rigged nonces.

* DiceBitco.in did not refund users who should have earned a profit, but did not. This is scamming, plain and simple. DiceBitco.in did not compensate all the users who lost due to the nonce rigging - the payouts that people *should* have won must be compensated as well, because the winnings are rightfully theirs.

* There are suspicious circumstances concerning mateo and the investments.

So you will add neg rep to all? Better start working on the list then; you will take a few days ;D
Since you neg repped him, you should also do to the two escrow providers, as they asked to revert back to original sig, and also all the other carriers who are aware.

He can't add anything else in sig as it contravenes rules, but yeah, he can add a message after each post. Will require a bit more work on his part.

AFAIK They are still dealing with everyone's requests. Suspicion does not always equate to the truth.

If I remove the ad in the near future, will you remove your trust?

This aswell, TradeFortress.

Mate, start adding a message at the end of your posts. Nobody looks at the message below the username. I was wondering for a long time what message you were talking about.

Something like this

----------------------------------------------------------
Dicebitcoin is screwed bla bla
read this thread ...(link)

So? That's entirely my point. You are choosing to take 0.3 BTC and collude with a scam. That's the entire basis of my negative trust rating.

You seem to fail to grasp the concept that trustworthyness is *EXACTLY* not pocketing money you shouldn't pocket. The whole point of trustworthyness is that you would sacrifice gains.

PS: The contract actually says you may not advertise other sites, not that it's unaltered. (A Ctrl+F of the thread shows 0 matches for 'unaltered').

^The escrow provider said he needs to keep it unaltered.

Made more simple:

Trust is about forfeiting attractive gains that you should not rightfully receive.

If an offer involves promoting a scam, then that is something that you should not rightfully perform IMHO.


Can you quote that? I don't see anywhere on the contract where it says it must be unaltered. I only see it prohibiting you from advertising anything else.

I am rightfully supposed to receive signature earnings, from day 1. They were not a scam back then hence why I decided to advertise them.

In other words: The offer DID NOT involve promoting a scam.

If an escrow provider has made the claim that the contract involved keeping the signature unaltered, then it seems the escrow provider hasn't read the thread.

Relevant rules:

* You must use the highest level of formatting (Color/size/etc) your user group allows to be applicable for the rates.
- Still applies if you add a disclaimer.

* Your signature must reflect your full user group rights.
- Still applies if you add a disclaimer.

* You may not advertise any other sites/threads. This includes non-paid for advertisements.
- define:advertise: "describe or draw attention to (a product, service, or event) in a public medium in order to promote sales or attendance."
A disclaimer relating to a scam is not 'promoting sales or attendance' and should not be considered advertising.

* You need to have the Dicebitco.in signature AT ALL TIMES you are enrolled. Fail to do so will void all/any outstanding payments owed to you. Dont try to cheat!
- Still applies if you add a disclaimer.

there u go, it was stated by dicebitcoin

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.msg8734611#msg8734611 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.msg8734611#msg8734611)

Btw, can you stop being so aggressive and start doling out neg reps? This guy has shown to be quite involved in the community and was the first who changed the signature to warn others. I am sure with a bit of dialogue you can reach a solution.

Am quoting this to send to bitcoininformation, will add a disclaimer once he decides.

^ can you add the message at the end as I suggested? Will require a bit more work but just keep it in clipboard.

I have a list ;) Quite a few removed their signature already.

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I disagree. I see nothing mentioned in the rules that prohibit you from adding a disclaimer. I'll email bitcoininformation & dooglus and ask them to actually read the rules. Please kindly correct me if you see a rule that prohibits altering the signature non-advertisingly.

I meant all from the gawminers and cryptcominer. You know they are going to blow up soon; and don't tell me the participants are unaware that they are ponzis.

Regarding the rules, yes, good work. This should hopefully resolve the issue.

I have posted on bitcoininformation's thread and am awaiting his response.

dicebitcoin already did a statement

interesting you guys still think you deserve money for advertising a site that went on to steal from customers...

give whats left to charity imo

Thanks for this. I don't see any mention of "If you change or alter the signature in any way, you will not be entitled to payment" in the original contract.

It is well accepted that contracts cannot be altered unilaterally without a suitable clause and consideration. If you would like me to cite case law from a variety of jurisdictions, let me know.

I believe DiceBitco.in's statement is invalid, as it is not part of the original contract.

Mateo has an almost perfect win streak winning as many as 36 times in a row in 49.5%. His style of betting would benefit their malicious code that skips certain bets.

The nail in the coffin confirming scam for me is the fact they disabled the ability to verify other players bets.

There should of been absolutely no reason for them to remove the ability of verify bets other then a rigged account is about to steal the entire bankroll and they were trying to hide evidence.

Ok, I'm offline for a few days, invest a bitcoin, and ... now it's all gone? That really sucks. I've always wanted to put up my own dice site, or somehow automate my old lotto game (to determine winner, but prize would be sent manually from cold wallet.) But I'm not a dev, and the second best option was to invest.

I'm not sure, but I think the escrow providers (for this dice sig campaign) should discuss between them (they are only two), and if they both agree, to just send all or most of the coins to all who kept the sigs up to this point divided proportionally.

As much as I'd like to personally get back my 1.14 invested BTC (and to think I sent it in a few days ago.)

Oh well... I'm not online much, and I haven't posted in any other thread yet; so hold off the neg reps.

(doog, I sent you an email, or do you prefer PMs here?)

give what's left to those investors who were cheated out of their money...
I'm owed 0.3 BTC on this scam-website... The owner doesn't want to refund me because "i had the chance to divest". Even though the cheater had the server seed. It was unfair gambling, hurting the investors.

I agree to this view: send coins now and return unused coins to dicebitcoin. If dicebitcoin want to continue their signature campaign they can make a new thread and have people join.

DB said that Dooglus and Bitcoininformation can keep anything that's left.

As I mentioned many times before, I 100% agree that campaign should be cancelled. If DB left for good and if 10BTC turns out to be not enough - things are going to be messed up at the end of the month.

The funds should be divided proportionally to the rank (disregarding the post count), otherwise all of those who were away etc will feel cheated (by those who already hit the max count).

We could make a voting, but the escrowers will make a decision anyways

No one can claim they felt cheated if it ends earlier than planned, since it is based on post count not a flat rate (so people dont make 50 posts on the last day of the month).

If you were away for the first 10 days, then it is not the campaign's problem that you couldn't make posts.

However the 50 post minimum should be disregarded.

Regarding the probability of mateo raping the bankroll I fear that it may not be "so" low.

The website was using half-kelly and standing to this link http://thehackensack.blogspot.fi/2009/11/half-kelly-bet.html (http://thehackensack.blogspot.fi/2009/11/half-kelly-bet.html) the probability of losing, at some point, a percentage of the bankroll follows a quadratic function. In practice my initial invested amount was 0.11335743 and after all the mess I lost 0.09500235, so 83% of my investment. The probability of this to happen was roughly about 17%^2=2.9%, an acceptable number.  (Anyway, it would be great to have a usable model for making these kind of computations, instead of pointing the thumb.)

Regarding the "whale", we can argue that the probability of finding a gambler risking 1 BTC per play is NOT low and also the "timing" argument can hold in reverse: since the bankroll was rapidly diminishing a gambler could have felt compelled to play before seeing it disappear.

Marco can you check this site out opinions ? shibaroll.com its doge dice ....

whoah, I was just about to consider this dice site to play on, but its rigged?  ???

What exactly do you want me to do? Are you just advertising them here?


Not anymore, apparently. It was skipping winning bets for many players when the problem was discovered and everyone withdrew their coins. You can play at your own risk.

you could verify the sites legit fair ... its crucial that now dice sites remain fair and honest after what has happened to DB

Lucky i didnt invest in this site was planning too

This is a complete joke.

Pay out the sig campaign.

Roll back mateo's (manl's) bets.

Pay back of the people you scammed on a PROVABLY RIGGED ALGO.

Close your site and return to the Ukraine.

Anyone who deposits 1 satoshi in DiceShitco.in should expect never to see that satoshi again.

Are u sure that Manl is from Ukraine ? Has he been doxed ? I heard he's a Frenchman.

I don't think it matters if he's Manl Karpeles or Manl Karpowski, he's just waiting for more investors to rob them blind as "mateo".

Please continue all "DiceBitco.in Signature"-related stuff to the new topic: [FULL]DiceBitco.in Siganture Campaign - Continued by Dooglus and BitcoinInformation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=776227.new#new). I won't check this topic anymore.

Well I was reimbursed for my losses on the site. Withdrawal has hit the blockchain and waiting on confirmation. We shall see if manl and gerry step up and make things right by eventually paying out the skipped winning bets. Otherwise I don't see people coming back to the site.

Added to updates!

I havent gotten any refund on my loss at the website. I just read this right now and ill update.

I DO agree that this could have been much worse. really.
It is not a perfect scenario like JD (where everyone was happy), but at least only last investors lost their money. sorry for them, i almost lost mine too.

The worst that could have happen is the owner runaway with 7000BTC (remember how mtgox affected so many lives?). That would be much more worse than what has happened.


By the way, is the nonce skipping bug fixed?? i wanna go back and play if it's fixed.


what would be best thing to do now if they want to continue the site is to have multiple people hold the key to the cold wallet.

Wow was thinking about playing at dicebitco.in I guess not anymore haha.

Open up a support ticket, they will run a script to see if you were affected and if so will issue you a deposit voucher to reclaim your coins.

This is what dooglus offered (or at least hold the server seed). However they denied his request to add trust to their site. Ultimately, it came back and hit them hard.

I did, im just waiting for someone to get back to me.

I submitted my ticket around 2AM est and recieved the response under "closed" tickets around 9AM. The manual withdraw was posted about 15-20 minutes after the request and has since been confirmed.

Just to give you some rough time estimates.

So mateo ran away with 600(or 1000?)btc. And manl is absolutely fully responsible for the lost of late investors as in the best case scenario for him -if he were honest the whole time- he should have denied withdrawal to mateo. And anyone with the lowest mathematical expertise would have seen that it was rigged. I am not even talking about halting the site etc.

So manl (god knows maybe...), we're talking about a few hundred thousands real dollars imaginary coins here:
- if you were honest all the time, is it all you can come up with as an explanation, a few forum posts ? were you physically unable to deny withdrawal to mateo ? are mentally challenged to not realize that mateo cheated ?
- if you're a thief, do you think you feel safer stealing a few $100k instead of $3M ?

to be honest, i don't feel safer to steal 100k instead of 3m, but i'm sure to feel dumber the next morning for not stealing the 3m if i were to steal the 100k anyway.

People who think this isn't a scam. Wake up!

So has he taken the site "private" as he declared he would do? Anyone wants to try to invest and see if that's still allowed? :)

So the support got back to me I wasnt affected. but I can of find it hard to believe, if the incident occurs on the same day as a whale lost his btc on Sept 7th. Which is when I placed bets as well.

Heres my my screen caps and response
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774120.0

Edit: Never mind, after more reading I finally saw doog pointing out the "nonce" for the #`s and mine appears to be in order.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.940

You invest first.   ;D  Tell us if it's safe.

Makes me wonder if same kind of thing happened at his other site diceliteco.in

max win of 444 LTC  Site profit = -17,174.3479 LTC

https://i.imgur.com/jQS3TIk.png

Its hard to tell, because I just discovered the nonce # sequence skipped a number, which all should be numerical based on bets placed.

If you have a screen cap, that helps of the Bet ID when looking it up.  

Like this eg: when doog points out something fishy. I also linked that well.

https://i.imgur.com/sUgk8px.png

I am still curious to as why the site is still functional.
It seems they have no BTC in their wallets, and are just showing an investment of 1100 BTC to attract other players unaware of the scam. This would lead to those new player being scammed. For this reason the site should be shut down.

If shit already hit the fan, and if you were a scammer wouldnt you want to milk the cow more longer. And make a utter confusion, like disabling chat etc. 

Its how most people work, typical mind set of a scammer.

Milk the cow longer and make udder confusion?

FTFY, I'll show myself out.

Because there are a lot of users keeping their sign to get a few bucks from their ad campaign. They are more greedy than these thiefts.

Yep. Leave them negative feedback.

Please also post here if you should have won BTC, but did not due to the nonce rigging, and was refused compensation by DiceBitco.in for your rightful winnings.

I'm sorry, but you're using Dubious math.  Kelly Betting is actually the amount the House "bets" which will increase their bankroll the quickest.  The Player does not enjoy kelly bets as they are betting in a -EV situation.  Kelly Betting is only for +EV (which in the case only pertains the House).  Thus the formula you are using to determine the chances of bankroll going to a certain % is not correct.  The correct % will be much much lower than 2%.


WOW VINBOY. Do i understand you correctly.  You still WANT to play at this shithole?  How do you know they've really fixed the issue.  Just "Trust" what they say?  And basically what you said about the Last Investors getting fucked.  You think THATs somehow OK?  That only the last guys get fucked?

So you're saying that these guys are a fucking ponzi scam then?  Since the last suckers in a ponzi also get scammed too..

In my eyes, thats exactly what Manl/Gerry did..  Nothing better than a ponzi scam.

Edit: Also, stop rationalizing that these guys ONLY fucked people out of a little bit of money, and NOT run away with the 7K.  Scamming is scamming, whether for 0.01BTC or for 7K.  Just because they didn't take the money and run doesn't mean shit.  IT does not mean they're good guys.

For all that I know, they'd rather ONLY scam the last investors, instead of 100% of their investors.  Cuz they'd rather only have a few people after their heads, than everyone in the dice community.

About how impossible mateo's winning were.. I made a few mistakes when computing the prob (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8736536#msg8736536) and corrected it. Sorry ! Since it was discussed here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8742613#msg8742613) and here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8745168#msg8745168), I thought I'd come back.

The approximation actually gives a probability of winning +600 btc like mateo did of about 1 in 1 to 10 millions... (for extreme values like here final result is highly influenced by the computers numerical methods and their accuracy).

Whatever... mateo cheated. And fuck the scammer.

See (https://i.imgur.com/oF915an.png) what a hundred thousand simulations of normal 60k bets looks like (histogram=simulations, curve=model), the max profit was 424. Play (http://pastebin.com/MActgivc) with the numbers...

so the Z score of that happening is 4.9. thats a 1 out of 2,130,000 chance.

It's always a shame to see things like this happen, especially given all of the honest operators who are in this for the long run (Primedice, Just-dice when they accepted bets, Win88 ...)

Operators should always aim to play the long game and it's critical to be honest and fair across the board.
And to have rockstar developers who build things right and use much more precision than 8 decimal places.

At win88.me we paid back our investors when we were allowing 99.99% edge investments (which was of course riskier for investors given dead even odds).
And we did so without anyone even asking. 

It's important to be proactive with or without a mistake and in this case I hope that DiceBitco.in finds a way to make things right with their players for the sake of integrity with the overall industry.

Currently DB is reporting:

Bankroll:   522
Profit:   -320
Invested:   1131

Don't all invested funds get added to the bankroll?  Why is the bankroll less than half of what's currently invested?

They charge 10% commission on profits. I think it would likely have something to do with this.

I wonder if it has same owner as dicebitco.in?

I do not think this is the correct model for computing the probability of mateo. It seems you assume that the player arrives and blindfolded bets for 60K times and at the end he just leaves the website with what is left in the pocket. But this is not like that, the players bets until there is money in the bankroll and for fun (I guess winning the bankroll is a lot of fun). If he just wins the bankroll in the middle of playing he just goes away, without extra rollings.

Also I cannot reproduce the result the 1 to 10 millions estimate, I run a simple script simulating a player betting 60K times at 0.5% of the bankroll (half-kelly as in the website) and on 10000 repetitions I get 4 times a final bankroll smaller than 15%.


I do not follow your reasoning (maybe you can be clearer?) but I am using a very standard tool. If you run some simulations you can check by yourself that the formula you find in the link is correct.

it probobly is

you should probobly avoid that site as well

Yes, it's the same owner(s). He mentioned it in the official DB thread (now locked). He also said that they're considering launching a DOGE site, but I sense that's no longer the case

Is there any info who lost the most money in this scam?

For the sake of doing "good" math here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8756296#msg8756296) ;P ..
As pointed out (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8754164#msg8754164) by a1choi, Kelly's formula doesn't not apply. And to take into account the probability of ruin of the casino here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8736536#msg8736536) (like nicolaennio wish), one as to compute the conditional probability P[S > 600 | S< initialBankRoll]... which leaves the probability unchanged if initBR=1100...

Actually, isn't that how you should model someones gambling session?  Blindly gambling until they stop when they've run out of money, or when they've hit a certain number of bets?  (there is 0% chance in which a player can walk away with 100% of the total casino bankroll)  Which is what Joecker's doing in his model.


What i'm saying is that your premise is incorrect, Because you are using the Kelly Formula to predict risk of ruin.  But the formula requires the betting situation to be +EV (positive).  Dice is -EV (1% house edge remember).

What joecker has done is the correct model.. let me explain in more detail.  here is a simple model of how this dice session should go.  The Total wagered amount by mateo should be around 50-60K, his profit around 500-600.  The Standard Deviation of dice at 49.5% is 1 (other %'s will provide very different standard deviations).  His total bet # is 60K. So average bet size is 1BTC.  We can then find the probability of this happening by doing a statistical test.  I have reposted Joecker's analysis below.


To be honest, the average betsize might be smaller than 1BTC since after the bankroll dropped smaller than 200btc, the maxbet was smaller than 1btc.  This would make the analysis above on the conservative side.  With a Z-score approaching almost 5, the evidence points more and more to something virtually impossible happening.  It could happen, but at the probability of 4.8x10^-7.

Joecker, I don't understand why you need to model the stdev as approaching 1.  The standard deviation of the winnings of dice played at 49.5% is = 1.  you're probably using a different method to calculate that?

i just used a dice simulator over millions of rolls to determine the STDEV of the dice game at different %s, since different % really do provide a different standard deviation.

Hopefully this will teach people not to flock to one person and trust anyone, even someone like dooglus, with their BTC until they do their own research and a site establishes a track record.

Hehehe.  Thats EXACTLY what i'm telling you.  :p

What's the probability of completely anonymous developers stealing money that people basically gave to them?

1

mmmkay, if we assume that initial bankroll of casino (u) and of mateonl (v) are both finite, with the above notations and assumptions, the probability we're actually looking for (what is the probability of winning 600btc or more with betting 60k times 1btc @49.5%?) is P[S>600 | v<X1+..+Xj<u for all j]. There's no non-empirical methods that I know of to compute that, but given the number we're talking about it's clearly of no influence here. The probability of ruin of mateo P[X1+..+Xj<-v for some j] and the probability of ruin of casino P[X1+..+Xj>u for some j] are not directly related to the above quantity...

Btw for this type of calculation, due to the nature of normal law, usual tools precision is only about 7-8 decimals. Indeed, when I plugged in the more precise numbers (for stdev etc), Mathematica returns P = 0.

Of course there's a chance ! .. but you have bigger chance of dying on your way to buy an Euromillion ticket (.. than to win the jackpot). Rip to all those bastards who died their way to the shop!.. that's why I feel much "safer" with online gambling ;P


LOL.. yea not funny for the victims :// But I am amazed by the accuracy of the calculations ;P

"Invested" doesn't change when players win or lose. Bankroll does; that's one big difference.

I think that's a player profit of -17k, so a site profit of +17k.

DB used to show it the same way until a few of us pointed out that the negative number could be offputting.

There is also the possibility that mateonl was freerolling, waging numbers on a screen vs. real BTC on a provably rigged game.

When is manl going to publish mateo's seed?

That's right, never, because manl is in another country now doing lots of cocaine and hookers. He can afford it.




Bankroll:   522
Profit:   -320
Invested:   1131

522 + -322 = 844

844 = 1131

Profit = profit??

Maths is truly magic.

hmm thats really wierd

but if dicebitco.in got rigged like that

probobly dicelitecoin got rigged as well thats how i look into it

So what's the total damage here, players got some money refunded, investors took their money out. There is that 500-600BTC loss but no one complaining on forum that they got screwed. Did any investor whale complained on the forum about this?

Chances are the people with the highest investments were the ones watching the closest and pulled out before mateo arrived.  Whether someone had 100 btc invested or 1, questions have been asked and no answers have been provided from DB.

the people that got hit have already complained.  They lost approximately 85% of their investment.  But because it was lost to a gambler, they don't complain as hard as someone might if they had their bankroll stolen outright.

It seems evident that the site will attempt to continue to run. There are still people gambling there. It looks like the investment feature is still functioning. Are those 520 coins currently invested from people who still haven't withdrawn or is it manl's BR?

Exactly...
I still haven't been refunded. The owner tells me i have been "positively affected"?? I didn't gamble AT ALL... EVER... Not a single roll. I only invested, and i lost it to a cheater. I have been able to withdraw the remaining 0.049 BTC. The rest (0.251 BTC) is still stolen.

Yep. Someone needs to ice that guy (http://youtu.be/0Q-w14NR5lg?t=7s).

I'm working on a fully in depth story covering the whole DiceBitco.in scandal. I'm going to try and be as unbiased as possible, but I am also going to state what most likely happened in regards to "mateo's" ridiculously "lucky" betting. What is the final calculation on the chances that mateo could have actually had those results? I need these calculations and odds to be confirmed by several highly mathematical people before I would publish them. Anybody can help me out and confirm these?

I CAN afford to lose it... It's just that i still have a right to the money if it has been stolen from me. If the gambling was fair, i wouldn't have minded losing the investment...

I'm well aware of that.
So that makes the theft justified to you? What if you borrow someone some bitcoin? They are not obligated to hand it back to you at some point?

There is a huge different to lose an investment or get your investment stolen/cheated.

Exactly... Why doesn't he see that?

5. Who the fuck you are? Lawyer of DB..?

1. No.
2. Unknown.
3. Did you mean "back"? AFAIK not everyone. Only ones that had a negative balance.
4. Yes? (i.e. they received their 15% or whatever was left).

1. No
2. Yes, dicebitcoin said that his withdrawal was processed (iirc)
3. No
4. Their investment got (sorry for the language) raped however they got what little was left of it, yes.

you can talk to joecker.  he seems to have his math right.

1. does not matter/not relevant
2. no one knows as Manl has not broached the subject about this user AT ALL.  Fishy?
3. they only got back their initial deposits, NOT the winnings that they should have won, had the code been correct and winning bets not been skipped.
4. they only received whatever was left, 15%.   IF they paid out Mateo, then fine, they fucked up and paid out a potential scammer, and the investors were on the hook for that.  BUT if they did not pay out Mateo, then they should refund the investors with that money. have they? Nope.

whats your defense UV?

What is the status of signature payouts?
When do we get the money?
Is there theard for this?

wrong thread. there is another one just for sig payouts.

Everyone has been paid. You can remove the signature now.

1) my arguments don't rely on assuming if manl is or is not mateo.  i'll allow people to examine the evidence
2) Manl has not agreed to release any info on mateo.  so we'll never know for sure.
3) this is NOT the same as the PRC rollback.  PRC went further to payout bets that WOULD have won, had you been afflicted by the bad code.  DB did not do that.  DB simply made your initial deposit whole.  Totally not the same thing.
4) we've already done mathematical analysis on this player that what he did had an extremely small chance of happening.  What nakowa did was perhaps 2-3SD from the mean? but what Mateo did was almost 5SD from the mean.  ALSO, it is not an argument that JUST because investors happened to profit from bad code, that its fair that they lose it back to some lucky player.  Also, what happens if an investor had JUST invested that day?  Did not even get a chance to "profit" from bad code, and gets hit by mateo's "lucky" run?

what a nightmare looks like my 8.5btc will never be returned. nothing can be proven in the investment scam. only reason gambling deposits were returned was because it was proven scamming. hopefully somebody can get to the bottom of it. I bet this will be forgotten about because of a very small percentage of the users are actually affected, most profited. he should really stop saying that investors were not affected by them cheating.

https://i.imgur.com/ooGBuvh.gif
To pull out that graph for manteol, one needs to know each of his bets...not likely to be available in this eon. Yea we could suppose
all at 49.5%
1k at 7btc
12.5k at 2btc
33k at 1btc etc etc you get the idea... but to put into perspective with my previous analysis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8754421#msg8754421)... here's what world's luckiest gambler managed to do (Attention: profit/loss is reversed with PeterR's graph) :
https://i.imgur.com/e1MHx7U.png

To make it clearer, each of the color bands refers to 1SD away from the mean.  Notice how 600 profit would be another 2 color bands away?  thats 5 SD away from the mean.  pretty fucking impossible if you could get any more impossible.. nak, on the other hand, was only a little over 2SD away.  not too fucking crazy.

Nakowa also played at full Kelly while Matteo only at half Kelly, so it's much more improbable. As far as I remember Nakowa didn't win 85% of house bankroll like Matteo but it was only around 15%.

That Kelly troll shit has to end! .. it does NOT apply to a gambler gambling in a casino with a positive house edge!

I was another late withdrawing investor losing about 7BTC. I am keen to speak with others about what they plan to do next, if anything. Quickly reviewing this thread it seems the following lost a significant percentage of their investment due to Mateo, I'm sure there are many more.

jh7phone -8.5 BTC
Qconnet07 (me) -7 BTC
Martijnvdc -0.251 BTC
Dabs -1.14 BTC
nicolaennio -0.09 BTC

Would other ex-investors be interested in meeting in an IRC room/somewhere else to discuss further at some point soon? I am on GMT.

I feel that one clear voice from a collective will be more effective that individual support tickets, all of which are just going to ignored/deleted.

I find it highly suspect that Manl/Gerry won't release Mateo's betting data for audit and see this as good as an admission of guilt. Their lack of action to halt betting and quick processing of Mateo's withdraw, coupled with the coincidental 500BTC bankroll that suddenly appeared, all scream of foul play at the expense of investors.

Would others be interested in discussing our options further in private? Please let me know and we can agree a time and day. 

He(or they) is laughing reading us, he's getting high on C and H and weed. He's fucking (underaged) boys and girls right now...

If you're planing to waste the guy(s), better go torchat directly ;P

edit: but be cautious... GUYS... he could as well come here (with a new account ::) ) and present himself as a (fake) victim and ... fuck you over again :/

Kelly definitely works when the system is rigged for a particular bettor

yes, but the assumptions here are that Mateo is a normal user.  And that within those bounds, what are the chances of this legitimately happening.  Thus we can conclude whether or not, mateo is a legitimate user or not.

Also, I believe GeoRW was just pointing out the fact that Nak was playing at 1% and Mateo was playing at max 0.5%.  Thus mateo's run is even more legendary/improbable, as he was able to win 5-6x more of the bankroll than Nak was, at a lower max bet.  Amazing luck, or suspicious?  I'd say suspicious.


From the grapevine, someone lost 80-90BTCs because of this.  he's probably pretty pissed off.  If that specific user wants to speak up, he should add his name to the list.

In the Copypasta response I got manl said he "Rolled Back" the admin so how do we know it wasn't tampered with before rigged bets were noticed. He doesn't check the code before he published his site to the web so maybe manl put some "malicious bug" in there hiding an evil bug out of plain sight maybe coded to seem like legit code.
https://i.imgur.com/QESWG0e.jpg

The malicious code is plausibly deniable anyway I guarntee he's covered his track or edited history to look real. I'll wait for any official response from dicebitcoin but most likely he's long gone by now leaving his website on autopilot. I have no plans to go on TOR to "waste" him, it's only a few thousand dollars I'll survive.

Auditing Mateo's data would be pointless if the data is provided by the site itself. It needs to come from an independent source (which probably does not exist).

Contact user 1ruru on these forums. As I understand it, he lost more coins than you all combined. He intentionally invested because he thought it was an investor who tilted.

Somebody needs to do a graph similar to nakowa's like uvwvj posted above to show visually how close to impossible his profit was. He flat bet constantly, nakowa did NOT flat bet constantly. He flat bet a lot, but not constantly.

No messages from manl or gerry for days. This is entirely normal I'm sure.

yes paid after losing 5/6 of my investment - Godamn the soul of those responsible to Hell forever.

Wow, first time i've seen him say anything about Mateo.  Legit user?  So they allowed the withdrawal?  Does anyone have a potential blockchain txn for Mateo's withdrawal?  If mateo is legit, hopefully he shows himself on this thread. :p



the best graph you're going to get is Joecker's graph above.  We simply do not have the required data to make anything more detailed.  Ask Manl/Gerry for the data.  LOL

You can turn it around as casino losing 85% of bankroll at 0.5% Kelly while JD lost "only" 15% of bankroll at full Kelly (whatever player/players were playing ;-)

Ok Guys After going after DB now I have something on PRC. The site is run by a good guy Dean, however it has had bugs from day one.
First the sjess case and now I figured this.
Just Like DB I had an instance of Bets skipped at PRC.
 Too Bad it happens with me only.

I tried negotiating with Dean but he didn't agree or care, So Here it is :
 THe video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ewu84DChS0

Dean might give excuses for this happening, but point is, it might have happened in the past and might have caused people to lose, and there is no way to check . Sorry but had to post this. Good Luck Happy Gambling.



EDIT: I also tried negotiating with Dean for 1 BTC but never happened. Smiley

aaaaaand .... again. No way to verify all bets as the data will come from the author itself.

About these off blockchain casinos, nothing will prevent site ops of making up magical bankroll or running away with investors fund.

Gamblers: you need (to develop) a browser plug in to check bets in a automated process.  Any rational gambler would check the code himself.

"Alleged" scammers (=casinos) count on the fact that you can't (manually) check tons of data (you're not even able to collect).

this is bull shit i checked all bets, nothing skipped. 

So to me, it looks like the bets did show up when they were made (on the first day), but due to a db caching issue, didn't show up on the second day when the site was reloaded.  This is where the confusion has come from.

So there is a small display bug here (missing bets from the display from previous days), but no foul play.

Finnile is posting misinformation here. I guess he never got the response or the ransom he wanted by posting in the official PRC thread.
You can get all the details here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=663326.msg8775135#msg8775135

Where are manl and gerry?

Ruru invested here too? Ok, I guess I don't feel so bad. But losing coins is relative. That's like a whole bunch of sleepless nights doing posts, or a whole bunch of escrow contracts. Good thing I don't touch donation money except to buy food.

I watched the rigged betting go down on monday morning and the bankroll was small enough that the site operators were definitely over half the bankroll.  ruru was probably around 100 then maybe another 25-50 btc from other users. Even if the tiny chance the bets were legit they were betting against themself. If they lost bets they would recieve the coins in their investment account, withdraw and try again. When you bet against yourself you can't lose.

This doesn't really make any sense. Why wouldn't you just divest your own coins first? When you bet against yourself you can't lose but you also can't win.

Confirmed there are a bunch of nonces missing when comparing your "my bets" with the roll verifier output:

https://i.imgur.com/BHV2lDJ.png

Dean claims these rolls were missed out of "my bets" due to a caching issue - so maybe it's incompetence rather than malice, as in the previous PRC incident.

@Dooglus I'm working on an article detailing the downfall of DiceBitco.in, and am prefacing it with a brief history of the "invest" option growing big with Just-Dice, so I will probably be reaching out to you in PM later on confirming some JD numbers and the mathematical probability that "mateo" actually had his winning streak without having access to server seeds. Might get a quote from you and a couple other people as well. Cool?

I'm going to try and finish the story today, though will still have to design some HTML/CSS for the "News" section I'm going to create, so it might be a day or two still before it is published. I usually stay pretty busy with work/random side projects.

Haven't been active for a few weeks, you sure do miss alot in bitcoin land by not being here constantly...

19 pages to go through, this should be fun, better make some coffee

Start here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8714193#msg8714193) to follow along as the shit hits the fan.


Sure. Yes, I am going to write a story exposing this scam operation, and hopefully it saves future investors/gamblers from getting robbed by the same people. It is going to be a mostly unbiased article, but the facts speak for themselves.

If i had to choose between incompetence vs malice, i'd choose incompetence.  Of course none of these are desirable outcomes. but lesser of 2 evils? 

And seems like Dean will have it sorted out shortly or has done so already.

The problem with accurately saying just how unlikely Mateo's run was is that we don't have much information on him. We don't know how many bets he made, what stake he was using, etc.

All we know for sure is that investors suffered roughly 84% losses around the time he was playing.

We could run a simulation where we bet at 49.5% to win 0.5% of the house bankroll, repeating until either the house bankroll grows or shrinks by 84%, and seeing how often the house ends up down instead of up. That way we get an upper bound on how likely Mateo's run was to have been legit (since betting to win 0.5% each time is the optimal strategy assuming you're restricted to play at 49.5% and also assuming you're not cheating!)

Here's code for such a simulation:


It's slow (sometimes it's an epic struggle between bank and Mateo, and so takes a long time to run), but here are some early results:

$ ./mateo.py 100
0 out of 100
$ ./mateo.py 1000
9 out of 1000
$ ./mateo.py 5000
12 out of 5000
$ ./mateo.py 10000
29 out of 10000
$

Winning 9 times out of 1000 and 12 out of 5000 shows that the variance is high.

9 out of 1000 is 0.9%.
12 out of 5000 is 0.25%.
29 out of 10000 is 0.29%.

So I guess the chance of Mateo doing what he did is around 1 in 500.

Note that I just threw the above code together - it may contain errors - and I made some assumptions which are plainly untrue (he wasn't max-betting every time).

Please feel free to point out any errors.

the only errors are most likely in your assumptions.  During the session, Mateo did the early damage with bets that were a lot lower than the max bet.  So altho you're computing the most conservative numbers for Mateo, the actual numbers are probably a LOT further away.. as in a lot smaller chance than 1 out of 500.

Edit: it would be extremely nice of Manl if he could provide the data for mateo's run.

it is certainly not 1 in 500.  the chart that you wanted was drawn using different assumptions (i believe more accurate ones).  60K bets at 1btc average.  those assumptions gave a 1 in 2.3M chance.

having the right data here will do wonders to providing the right details. right now its all speculation since what i believe to be accurate might not match with what you believe to be accurate.

If "mateo" is even real, the main problem is how can a site make 50K wagered in a night although there was a "problem" on the site, and although daily wagered about was 1K.


Also I found manl and gerry's real photo.
 (http://d.haber3.com/news/273204.jpg)

I don't think that's true. Early on he was making 7 or 8 BTC bets, which I think were pretty close to max bets given the ~350 BTC bankroll.

I rewrite the simulation in C to make it faster:


Then:

$ ./a.out 100000
339 out of 100000

That's 0.339%.

I thought I took a screenshot of his early 7 BTC bets, but can't find it.

I'm pretty sure the bulk of the damage was done with 7 BTC bets, so assuming 60k bets at 1 BTC isn't going to give you the right results. Many of his bets were much smaller than 1 BTC too.

i remember seeing the eight 8btc bets won in a row.  dont remember how many he did at 7.  again, it would be great if manl could provide the data.  those bets did do a lot of damage quickly but even at betting 0.5 to 1 btc, he was winning a large portion of the bankroll away (when the max bet was around 2.5 i believe).

I watched the ENTIRE thing. The bulk of the damage was done with bets under 1 BTC (mostly 0.5, then 1, then alternated between 0.1 and 0.2 for no reason). He was staying well under the max profit at the time but it's not really clear why. 12 hours before I watched he was making 8 BTC bets.

He was betting about 30 times a second for hours on end. He would take 10 second breaks every one in a while. This leads me to believe it was someone with access to the seed (seed sorting for guaranteed profits), and not the "rogue employee" flat betting skipping losing nonces.

I think all this maths only obfuscates the reality of what happened, especially given the ridiculously conservative numbers. He was betting 20-30 times a second for well over 3 hours, with only seconds between pauses.

Wake up dooglus; stop trying to defend an obvious scam with maths. nakowa's luck was unlikely; mateo's luck is orders of magnitudes less likely. No rational person with 100s of BTC flat bets for hours on end on dice sites and makes profit. You should know that better than anybody.

The problem is without the data, we have a lot of "I remember this, I remember that" statements, which isn't reliable for determining the probability of something, especially when people's memories are colored by their emotions.

Given that there are still people here entertaining the idea Matteo could have been real, Manl would be smart to release the data. Especially if he has nothing to hide.

post with a screenshot of 8 btc bets at 1680 BTC bankroll: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8721491#msg8721491

and a few posts down:

mateo   7.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   5.4922   -7.00000000   17:38:02
mateo   7.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   90.8348   +7.00000000   17:38:01
mateo   7.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   79.9928   +7.00000000   17:38:01
mateo   7.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   77.2493   +7.00000000   17:38:00
mateo   7.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   51.7757   +7.00000000   17:38:00
mateo   8.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   94.4891   +8.00000000   17:37:48
mateo   8.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   62.8750   +8.00000000   17:37:48
mateo   8.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   76.9733   +8.00000000   17:37:47
mateo   8.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   80.7974   +8.00000000   17:37:46
mateo   8.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   57.2030   +8.00000000   17:37:46
mateo   8.00000000   2.0000   ↑50.4999   84.0098   +8.00000000   17:37:45

EDIT:

And he went down to 1 BTC bets shortly after the bets made in the screenshot while the max bet was still 7.88 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8721583#msg8721583

I have no vested interest in this website and remember clearly how mateo was betting (as described above)

Whoever came up with 60,000 bets is trying to warp the maths to make this look possible. What happened is only possible if you're a complete retard trying to lose all your BTC and you get luckier than any gambler known.

The fact that people are entertaining the idea that this isn't a scam is more worrying.

Exactly.  could not have phrased that any better.  give the man a bone.

I'm not defending anyone.

I was asked for a probability, so tried to get one with very little data:


Until then I hadn't even attempted to come up with a number. I did see one guy posting some complex math and arriving at the result that the probability was 0. I think he's fixed it a bit since to give a non-zero number, which makes it infinitely more believable, but I'm not able to verify his work since I don't understand it. I'm not even entirely sure whether it's intended to be taken seriously or if it's a joke for mathematicians.

I edited my post above; Mateo was betting 1 BTC while max bet was 7.88 BTC and as far as I watched it go down he didn't go back to bigger bets other than an occasional 2 BTC bet. He went down to 0.75 BTC bets only when the max bet went below 1 BTC (and then to 0.5 BTC bets).

Most of the damage doen was with 1 BTC bets and I saw the profit go from 190 to 250 to 180 to 100 and further down.

Thanks. That must be what I was thinking of. I saw a screenshot, but didn't take it myself.

Note that he was betting near the maximum at that point. I didn't see him betting significantly below the maximum at any point, but I didn't watch most of it.

Edit: I see the 2nd screenshot showing 1 BTC bets with a max of 7.x so I stand corrected.

That's how i remember it as well.  I don't remember him going back up above 1 except for the rare 2btc bets after that.

if we can have some conservative assumptions based on the anecdotal evidence we procure from the crowd, we could possibly come up with some decent numbers.

ie. how many bets at each BTC level  (either by estimate on how many mins of betting at each BTC level, plus how many bets per sec or min) over the session

that might also turn into a shit show tho.

Well, If you compare screenshots at page 58 of the thread linked then you see that at 8:32 he's betting almost the max and ten minutes later he's betting 1 BTC while the max is 7.88 BTC. Bit strange to go from max betting to 'just' 1 BTC. Point is, most of the damage was done with bets well below the max. He basically won at least 450 BTC (161 profit in the screenshot and plus minus -350 profit after his run) with 1 BTC bets or lower.

i don't understand what you're getting at.

Assuming the player does have the seed, do you expect him to use the seed for perfect play?  No probably not, as that would be WAY too obvious.  You'd pick a winning side, Hi or Lo and stick with it.  But you know that after all your bets, you will have the upper hand on profits.  And it'll look as if you DONT have the seed.

The theory is that he knew the server seed and so could test thousands of client seeds against it to find one that resulted in more wins at 49.5% than losses in the first however man rolls.

If you pick your client seed just right, you can beat the 1% edge by flat betting 'hi' - for a finite number of rolls, at least.

Here are stats I collected over recent days:


Fri Sep  5 08:46:27 PDT 2014      profit:       175.91141188    invested:       7,238.62508975  wagered:        30,959.2017     bets:   37,501,964
Sat Sep  6 10:11:26 PDT 2014      profit:       201.62990662    invested:       7,381.69733455  wagered:        31,810.6743     bets:   39,692,223
Sun Sep  7 07:40:03 PDT 2014      profit:       259.22495458    invested:       7,108.09065012  wagered:        32,159.8734     bets:   41,190,494
Sun Sep  7 17:46:25 PDT 2014      profit:       161.16300354    invested:       1,704.91132568  wagered:        32,993.4733     bets:   41,781,550
Mon Sep  8 08:10:55 PDT 2014      profit:      -205.78715499    invested:         704.96789890  wagered:        85,453.6730     bets:   42,516,227
Mon Sep  8 08:31:25 PDT 2014      profit:      -316.11279075    invested:         704.96789890  wagered:        89,743.0994     bets:   42,543,239 BANK:  99.71907091
Mon Sep  8 10:01:14 PDT 2014      profit:      -327.07568425    invested:       1,178.45375026  wagered:        90,949.9923     bets:   42,631,645 BANK: 562.24230998
Tue Sep  9 09:18:10 PDT 2014      profit:      -329.35365206    invested:       1,132.50293979  wagered:        91,298.6454     bets:   43,526,552 BANK: 514.02009646
Wed Sep 10 20:57:14 PDT 2014      profit:       -315.90377541   invested:       1,130.67616779  wagered:        91,741.0462     bets:   44,641,341 BANK: 525.63070559
Thu Sep 11 10:17:14 PDT 2014      profit:       -317.17418051   invested:       1,130.64611884  wagered:        91,764.8918     bets:   44,795,601 BANK: 524.29955187


It shows the huge jump in the amount wagered, but doesn't really help with the number of bets he made.

Can anyone confirm this is them? If so this will help a lot when the FBI gets involved. They need to release the details on the mystery co-worker responsible or they are aiding and abetting a criminal. Even if they are not responsible for the malicious code crime itself a person aiding and abetting is just as guilty and is punished as if they did the crime themself.

Looking at this I think you can. The wagered amount shoots up from 33k to 90k in less than a day. Before it was less than 1k per day so I think it is safe to assume that most of that wagered amount was from Mateo since I didn't see any other bettors on the high bets tab other than some people betting 0.1 at the 1.1x odds.

Assuming most of the volume was him and that most of his bets were at 1 BTC you arrive at 57k bets. Subtract a percentage of that to allow for other people betting (very few since everybody was trying to figure out what was going on) and the initial 8 BTC bets made by Mateo, say 20%  ???, and you arrive at something like 45k bets.

EDIT: remember that he was robot rolling 1 BTC for a long time. Basically several bets per second for periods upto half an hour.

EDIT2: To see the other peoples bets on the high bets tab I actually had to take a screenshot in order to see who else was betting and ho much; that gives an indication that he was making a ton of bets per second.

No need to notify the FBI, that girl on the picture is an undercover FBI agent.

Open your eyes, there is no mystery co-worker. If there ever was one, DB would release his dox on the first day. Too late now. 

So mateo wagered close to 60,000 BTC. I missed him making the larger bets but I saw him take 500BTC in one session with mostly 0.5 BTC bets. Sometimes 1 BTC, sometimes 0.75, then eventually .2 and .1

I am going to assume he would need to constantly wager more and more small amounts as the bankroll got smaller. It doesn't seem unlikely to me that he made well upwards of 100,000 bets.

here with the mysterious coworker

http://saltandlighttv.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/20140526cnsto0178.jpg

Aaaa'right, here I come again. As someone said, all that mathshit obfuscates the reality of what happened.

It will be slightly over too much, certainly off-topic, but I am only writing this partial analysis for entertainment, for personal interest and for educational purposes ;) May contain errors.

 
The event

Mateonl robbed the bank.

The question (?)

How lucky was he ? Very. That's a non mathematical question, so that's a non mathematical answer.

To push the analysis a little bit further, one needs to consider two (ideally mutually exclusive) answers
a) he was just lucky,
b) he was way too lucky, game was rigged.

"Methodology"

To decide between a) and b), we need to
- ask a mathematical question "What is the probability P that... "
- fix a limit number P0 such that if P>P0, well conclude that it was luck, if P<=P0, we'll conclude that  it was rigged
- compute P, decide.
Ain'no Joe Got' Time fo Dat!

Before formulating zee questions and the before zee Germans arrive, I spy with my little eye
Three Approaches to answer a "what is the probability..." question
1) statistical study based on observations
2) choosing a model and making a statistical study based on simulations
3) choosing a model and perform a mathematical analysis (purely theoretical approach)

Depending on the problem and the amount of information and knowledge available, each approach has its own benefits and drawbacks. In a perfect world, if we do a good job, 1) and 2) and 3) should be all consistent.

About approach 1, since we've seen only one mateonl guy rob the bank only one time, our sample size is two or at best two (Nakowa's case, should they be comparable). From a purely observational point of view, no conclusions can be made with only one observation other than "the observations show that if you bet like manlteo and have the same initial fund, you WILL rob the bank". Well, good luck with that!

Do we all appreciate the elegant Simplicity of simulations and the strange Beauty of statistical theory.  Yes ? No ?!  :'( :'( Doesn't matter, I'll do none of'em anymore.


Assumptions, available information and the probability questions


Ok we're choosing a model. Ideally, it should be as close as possible to the reality. All bets are @49.5%.  That's our model, but also the reality. Lucky us.

Mateonl has a finite initial fund. So he can bust. And our probability will depend on that  parameter which is.... tuduuu unknown. At all time, bankroll cannot go in the negative. So bank can bust too. Recall that, obviously, mateo didn't bust. Indeed, if he did, he would have stopped on a loss, which is  not what happened. From a probabilistic point of view, these two statements must be taken into account, I don't repeat them below.

For the sake of simplicity, many approximations are to be made, among which : now new  investments in the bankroll and no withdrawals were made during the bets, no other whale neither etc etc. I also wrote numbers out my memory, just for illustration.

The questions

I will formulate two seemingly similar questions.

I) Given this list of bets which are all realized (in this order)
5k bets at 7
5k bets at 3
25k bets at 1
25k bets at 0.5
what is the probability to end up wining 85% or more* of the initial bankroll ?
*(if we are in the mindset of thinking "what is the probability to be at least as lucky as mantoel")

II) Given this list of bets which are realized (in this order) so long as the bankroll contains more or just 15%  of the initial bankroll:
at most 5k bets at 7
then at most 5k bets at 3
then at most 25k bets at 1
then at most 25k bets at 0.5
what is the probability to end up wining 85% of the initial bankroll ?

One can arguably say for question I) that it allows the bankroll to go under 15% of its initial state, which is not exactly what we saw happening. But again, if we think of the probability "betting like maeto did, to be luckier than him" as "to win more than 85% of iBR " it is a reasonnable assumption.

Similarly for question II) it allows the betting to finish before 60k bets, which is not exactly what we saw happening. But again, if we think of the probability "betting like maeto did, to be luckier than him" as "to win .xx. btc quicker than him " it is a reasonnable assumption.

Mmh strange.. none of those replicates what we saw!!! Let's take the two conditions into account: what is the probability to make exactly 60k bets like he did, win exactly 85% BR, BR never go under 15% before the end. Given the large number of bets, I think that modelling this would involve a massive shitload of combinatorial arguments (partitioning of numbers). Approximation would probably be the way to go... but let's stick with I) and/or II) and... ?

Now about dooglus' simulation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8780347#msg8780347), the probability he finds is the answer (I think) to this question :

III) Given that
- all bets are continuously updated at the maximum bet size (which is 0.5% of bankroll) all the time at most 60k times,
- betting stops if bankroll reaches 15% of initial BR,
what is the probability to win 85% of the initial bankroll ?

This formulation does not make use of the available information about matnl bets. So it'd be of interest to answer this question: betting at max bet at most 60k times, what is the prob to be as lucky as him (in other words, to win exactly what he won).

This last question is of interest essentialy for the casino only as it will help determine the probability of ruin or survival time to a whale (who'd bet only @49.5% .. mmh).

This is just three out of a quazillion choices. But they each help to answer slightly different questions.

You might wonder "what is the probability to end up wining 85% (or 100%) of the initial bankroll ?" without any restriction on the betting strategy. Well it's a Gogol-fucking-infinitely complex question as it involves all allowed betting strategies. Remember your math course ?
P(win 85%) = P(win 85%|Strategy1)P(Strategy1) + ... +P(win 85%|Strategy-BIG)P(StrategyBIG).

I'm done here...

I did some biiiig simplifications on my previous posts and estimates, where I choose the analytical approach. Its power is limited with more complex models..

another point which I dont see anyone paid attention to is the speed of the betting. It was really fast. From my computer i usually can bet at 2 bets per second. Maybe 3 or 4 bets per second at max.

Looking at how mateo was betting the other day make me believe it was betting on the server or somewhere very near the server for such a fast response time. That is to assume that it does bet through the website where the bet button get disabled while waiting for last bet to finish.

So my conclusion is that:
1) it was betting on the main website from a PC very near to the server (or from the server itself)
2) it was betting using some sort of API (i'm not aware of any public API) or custom software, where it keep sending a bunch of betting calls and not wait for bet result.


Currently the cold wallet hold 440 BTC?? who is invested? i'm there gambling again, with smaller amount of coz.

I noticed that too. Never seen anyone bet that fast before on the site.

I estimated 30 bets per second but it was so fast it was nearly impossible to say for certain.

The funny part is that it was being suggested before Mateo turned up that some big whale is going to get very lucky and clean it all up. Watching it unfold pretty much guranteed that the owners took the shareholders money.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=761086.msg8582381#msg8582381

Seems like manl and gerry blew all their funds as well as investor funds on ponzi schemes.

13days ago...

And you probably should update your sarcasm detector ;)

sarcasm or not, its not assuring to have an operator joke about the bankroll like that.

And you, your signature greedy fuck ! (sorry for language)

Find me other signature campaign that pays better and I will change.
And you're just jealous because you can't wear signature. (you greedy fuck!!! sorry language).

Leave negative feedback for him :)

Nahh, I was childish.. after all
https://i.imgur.com/yP050uO.png </sarcasm>. Back to "topic"

awful to still use the signature, directing people to a known scam site. you guys must have no consciences

Likewise PM me other members who are going to continue wearing it

And you didnt? You sticked with the campaign until you got paid and now you are bashing others. Such morals. ::)

The site became a scam just before I was paid for my posts. I continued to post when there was a lot of uncertainty as to what was happening. It is now clear what has happened (proven to be untrustworthy) yet those users consciously continue to advertise them. I dropped as soon as I got an early payment.

You had a signature for 11 days, TF started sending messages 1 or 2 days after DiceBitco.in gave the campaign to use and it was quite clear that it was extremely scammy after 2 days, yet you continued to wear the signature. You even had two signatures, twice (!) (which Dooglus and I noticed after you got paid and yes, we can proof it). Stop acting like you are better then someone else.

he should return the money or you ( bitcoininformation) have to leave a negative feedback to him (@marcotheminer). This is not a correct behavior

TF came active with all this around that time yes. I was entitled to al earnings before the scam was apartent (you could've decided to not count everyone's post from a certain time, by the way).

I had 1 signature, the other was added for a few hours but not displayed publicly (so no second signature was being advertised publicly). The reason I added it was to complete the week BEFORE I joined dicebitcoin (a few hourse were required). Advertising for dicebitcoin was not hindered by the invisible signature.. And what do you mean by twice?

Finally I am not saying I am better than them, hope you understand that.

First of all, it doesn't matter if your signature was visible or not. You weren't allowed to have any other signatures so you should have been kicked from the campaign. We both know that BitMixer.io checks your signature using a script and that it doesn't where you have it.

Secondly, don't lie to me. I don't like it when people lie to my face. You didn't wear it for a few hours. You had it for at least 2 days.
I was wrong about that and I apologize. I confused you with someone else (you weren't the only one doing this).

I don't think so. I didn't include the 60k bets limit at all. First, I don't know where it came from, or whether it's really how many bets he made, and second I don't know that it matters. If it would have taken twice as many bets as it did, wouldn't he have still taken 84% of the bank? I doubt *he* had a 60k bet count limit in mind. Much more likely his goal was to win as much as possible without caring how many bets it took.

When asking "how likely is it that what happened was for real?", we need to decide what aspects of "what happened" are significant. The fact that he rolled a 70.2 (made up number) on his first bet isn't significant. If we include all his rolled numbers in our analysis we will find it truly remarkable that he rolled exactly that sequence of numbers. His "feat" is that he won 84% of the bank, and so that's what we have to look at. If he did it by betting substantially less than the max bet, that too is part of the "feat" and needs to be taken into account, since that makes it less likely to happen without cheating.


I think that's not a good way of looking at it.

If I make a single bet of 1 BTC at "< 49.5", roll 33.3231 and win, and you look at it to decide if I was cheating, do you:

a) see that there was a 49.5% chance of me winning, and so it's quite possible that I didn't cheat
b) see that there was a 0.0001% chance of me rolling exactly 33.3231, and so it's very likely that I cheated

My point is that "winning exactly what he won" is a random detail, like me happening to roll 33.3231. Looking it the probability of *exactly* that happening is to miss the point. We need to look at the probability of being at least as lucky as him - which is low enough already.

That is a very good point,and one that struck me at the time too.

I took some screenshots to capture the speed of betting:

14-09-08 - 08:49:43 AM PDT
https://i.imgur.com/t7FJymu.png

14-09-08 - 08:50:17 AM PDT
https://i.imgur.com/gIdrgkF.png

14-09-08 - 08:50:31 AM PDT (waited to capture a lot of wins)
https://i.imgur.com/PSK2omk.png

In all three it seems to be about 8 bets per second.

I've joked with obvious Ponzi scammers before about having 40k BTC to invest with them.

I think it's pretty obvious that I'm just messing with them.

So basically we've learned that if you create a decent site and run it for couple months then put another 10k into a new site, you can run with up to 8000 BTC shortly after? Personally, I'm glad people here lost money cause if you're stupid enough to invest more then a coin to this new guy's site you deserved it. Dooglus is only and will be only dice site past or present owner trustworthy around here, let's be real.

As long as these gambling sites keep operating in a grey area I agree with you. Casino's owners shouldn't be anonymous. But I can understand why they want to be, getting a real gambling license is pretty expensive and hard process.

It's most likely he was using multiple windows, each with a robot running. I too can replicate bets at that speed using this process. I doubt there was a super secret computer he had access to that lets him bet faster than anyone else, or whatever is being hinted at. Most logical explanation is multiple windows.

On that, if you're using multiple windows, you must be more sure than normal that you're going to win, as responding to an adverse gambling incident would take much longer on multiple windows than just one. This suggests something was going on to me, since if you're just straight gambling, one robot suffices. The fact that there was likely multiple windows operating a robot means you're not worried about house edge, as the more bets that are placed, the more the edge will dent profits. Multiple windows means trying to bet as quickly as possible before people withdraw, where house edge isn't a factor, which suggests to me the betting was rigged.

I think the betting started and stopped pretty suddenly. If you were using multiple windows, wouldn't it take a while to get up to full speed and also to stop betting as you switched between windows and clicked the stop/start button on each?

I'm on a very laggy connection so have no idea how fast the auto-bet feature worked on a fast connection.

I do not think, it was multi window betting, but 8 Bet per seconds also very fast even very fast internet connection
I saw 4-5 Bets per seconds in many site with autobet, but not more then that.

If this is true, that would make sense. But I didn't see starting and stopping, or that there wasn't a ramp up and ramp down time between starting and stopping, so I can't speak to it. Just offering what I thought was the most likely explanation for the fast betting.

On a fast connection, the robot is very fast. With four windows open, I can get about 8-10 bets per second. Doesn't work with tabs though. If a robot is running in a tab that isn't on top of the screen, it runs much slower than normal. But with four robots running in different windows, no problem at all.

Since the bat shit about signatures campaign is at least as useless as the shitstorm of math in thread, I allow myself to reply to dooglus' post here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8793089#msg8793089). Again, pure technicalities.

I made an obvious mistake. I had another piece of code in mind (if nicolaennio (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=151866) allows me, I'll publish it).
Indeed there's no stopping condition on the number of bet in this model. If the random number generator was biased (evenly distributed around 0.495) or if the criterion was "< 0.5", the betting maybe could go forever (Nerds: with what probability?). It would be indeed be interesting do modify the code to capture the number of bets until bust either side (a.k.a. survival time). With max bet size, I expect it to be very short. (Nerds: what is the distribution of that number?  ;) )

That's right ! And all the rest of the discussion rely on the definition of event and all the IF's rely on the available information or the information we decide to include to our model(s). In mathematical terms, it translates to conditions.

P( Event ¦ Information )       (conditional probability)

In my previous analysis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774828.msg8786803#msg8786803), I mentioned three(+doog's) of such expressions. For me (I seem to be alone), the probability I) is the first that came into my mind, seemed the most natural to me. Others might have different opinion. Nobody's right or wrong, we just have different views on how to approach a problem with an open question, a non mathematical question.

So is the site provably rigged?

And now people is coming back and invest in it  :o

Well if it's provably rigged so players lose then investors should get a lot of profit  ;D

And you're stupid enough to believe that's the case. Either those numbers are fake or the siteowner himself invested to deceive you again.

it is unbelievable.. why to invest in this site come on ???

Well, that's what you think. If you're going to get scammed again you deserve it I guess. I would never invest in a site again that made my investment dissappear in such "magical" way. He can let you invest divest for now, so his site gains trust, until the next moment he comes and takes your btc

Hope you got what you wish.

Every human still have an inner heart to make a good deeds
http://cdn.kaskus.com/images/smilies/matabelo1.gif

Well, looks like DB is still running and investment is slowly rising and profit growing.  All appears to be good and stable.  I just hope some freakishly lucky player doesn't suddenly show up out of nowhere and take a few hundred bitcoins from investors when the bankroll becomes more healthy. 

We have different definitions of "good." I'll grant you stable though, but stability is but a mirage. Things were stable last time too, right up until someone discovered winning nonces were being skipped.

As long as people play there though, Manl won't have to come answer for anything that's happened. It's clear at this point he wants to continue running the site. As long as people go there to play, he's getting what he wants, so there's no need to answer any of our questions.

Am I the only one who gambles at Dicebitco.in now?

They used to get over 1000 BTC wagered per day regularly. Now they're lucky if they get 100 BTC wagered per day:

Tue Sep  2 09:01:14 PDT 2014      profit:         57.14303938   invested:       5,830.01221065  wagered:        26,453.2552     bets:   32,462,566
Wed Sep  3 07:10:14 PDT 2014      profit:         97.51547298   invested:       5,835.37166989  wagered:        28,513.0451     bets:   33,624,899
Thu Sep  4 08:09:48 PDT 2014      profit:        106.72483399   invested:       6,314.60683720  wagered:        29,843.2017     bets:   35,446,198
Fri Sep  5 08:46:27 PDT 2014      profit:        175.91141188   invested:       7,238.62508975  wagered:        30,959.2017     bets:   37,501,964
Sat Sep  6 10:11:26 PDT 2014      profit:        201.62990662   invested:       7,381.69733455  wagered:        31,810.6743     bets:   39,692,223
Sun Sep  7 07:40:03 PDT 2014      profit:        259.22495458   invested:       7,108.09065012  wagered:        32,159.8734     bets:   41,190,494
Sun Sep  7 17:46:25 PDT 2014      profit:        161.16300354   invested:       1,704.91132568  wagered:        32,993.4733     bets:   41,781,550
Mon Sep  8 08:10:55 PDT 2014      profit:       -205.78715499   invested:         704.96789890  wagered:        85,453.6730     bets:   42,516,227
Mon Sep  8 08:31:25 PDT 2014      profit:       -316.11279075   invested:         704.96789890  wagered:        89,743.0994     bets:   42,543,239 BANK:  99.71907091
Mon Sep  8 10:01:14 PDT 2014      profit:       -327.07568425   invested:       1,178.45375026  wagered:        90,949.9923     bets:   42,631,645 BANK: 562.24230998
Tue Sep  9 09:18:10 PDT 2014      profit:       -329.35365206   invested:       1,132.50293979  wagered:        91,298.6454     bets:   43,526,552 BANK: 514.02009646
Wed Sep 10 20:57:14 PDT 2014      profit:       -315.90377541   invested:       1,130.67616779  wagered:        91,741.0462     bets:   44,641,341 BANK: 525.63070559
Thu Sep 11 10:17:14 PDT 2014      profit:       -317.17418051   invested:       1,130.64611884  wagered:        91,764.8918     bets:   44,795,601 BANK: 524.29955187
Fri Sep 12 10:10:04 PDT 2014      profit:       -319.33467781   invested:       1,127.26238508  wagered:        91,845.4572     bets:   45,753,572 BANK: 518.78566018
Sat Sep 13 08:06:52 PDT 2014      profit:       -306.98197776   invested:       1,206.39725636  wagered:        91,988.8721     bets:   47,369,478 BANK: 610.23857176
Sun Sep 14 09:45:14 PDT 2014      profit:       -304.79770840   invested:       1,392.26246817  wagered:        92,024.3805     bets:   48,245,730 BANK: 798.28693218
Mon Sep 15 08:29:49 PDT 2014      profit:       -301.53743477   invested:       1,462.05982531  wagered:        92,082.7456     bets:   49,059,362 BANK: 871.33805324
Tue Sep 16 11:38:01 PDT 2014      profit:       -295.79031602   invested:       1,508.38149462  wagered:        92,153.4729     bets:   50,319,276 BANK: 923.40560018

It appears that they are somehow getting more people to invest in their bankroll. They had mentioned they would seek private funding for their bankroll in one of their last threads.

I would be curious to see if they ever get any kind of meaningful business again.

It's been a week since "Mateo" stopped playing. Since then, the site appears to have won 34 BTC from players.

That's better than most sites make in a week.

Why does the site withdraw with no feeeeeeees.......

 :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

It withdraws without fees when fees aren't required according to the current version of the bitcoin core client.

It seems that some mining pools are using older, stricted versions of bitcoind, and so think that a fee is required when it isn't, resulting in confirmation being delayed.

Do you think they are still cheating their investors? It would obviously very difficult to tell since they have disabled checking of other users' bets.

I think one explanation of this would be that they decided to "roll back" some portion of Mateo's bets after they figured out that something was wrong and was able to pinpoint the problem.

Other then that it would mean that their customers have bet ~3,400 BTC in the last week.

I wish JD and DD were still up.  :P

Those sites ran without a flaw

So it appears manl and gerry still refuse to pay out winning bets on their gambling site.

Still no chatbox? Cant verify those endless .5 or 1 BTC bets for hours on end?