But to answer OP, yes it is possible that the next time you generate an address with your client, you get the key to Satoshi's main wallet and can use his coins.
What you wrote made no sense. I recommend that you learn the difference between an "address" and a "wallet". Sorry, that was surely really badly put. But the next time he generates a new address, he might just generate the private key that corresponds to the address where Satoshi has the most bitcoins. I would not want to create any more confusion with these things of course... |
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Well, you can of course prove that you have got a reply, if it is signed. But there can't really be a way that you can prove that you have not gotten a reply; who knows, maybe a reply was sent but you somehow did not get it. Like trying to prove you did not hear someone shouting, maybe you did, maybe not.
I think you are on the right track, you must have the nodes broadcast their message through the rest of the network somehow, maybe let the nodes relay each others' messages. I don't know your application so it's hard to say any better.
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Macarena's coming back, I'm sure of that.  um...what if someone in the future got a quantum computer to continually generate new private keys and check their balance in the blockchain. Well, quantum computers are not a high-speed ordinary computers but completely different. Powerful quantum computers would be a threat to Bitcoin, but the main threat would be to the public key cryptography used in bitcoin. The elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem can be quite efficiently solved with a quantum computer using an algorithm similar to Shor's algorithm for prime factorization, and would allow private keys to be recovered from public keys. But at the current state of quantum computing the risk is only theoretical, Shor's algorithm has been run on quantum computers to factor numbers like 15, which is a nice proof of concept but hardly a threat to any cryptosystems. In the future, the algorithms in Bitcoin will probably have to be changed into quantum-resistant ones, but there will be a lot of time to think about that. For sure we will see wonderful things in cryptography in the future, maybe it is possible to find some kind of provably very strong cryptography; maybe it is even possible to prove the nonexistence of a really efficient (whatever that means) algorithm at some point. Of course these are hard things, just look at the P=NP problem, but I believe this will be one area of science to see unbelievable progress in the near future. Anyway we will almost surely not see a sudden collapse of present-day crypto, but a gradual weakening and replacement. |
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In short, the chances of two people generating the same private keys are so low that it is not worth worrying about. Do you worry about being hit by a meteor?
Ok, but that doesn't really satisfy. Because as more people used bitcoin, and more an more addresses are generated, and the longer its been around, there would be more and more of a chance of duplicate addresses. Question: after an addresses is loaded with funds and added to the blockchain, then, does that information get sent to these automatic addresses generators in all the web, desk, and mobile wallets, and the bitaddress.org generator too? I don't think so. So how do they know they are not creating an address which was already created? The numbers are so huge that none of the things you mention, even multiplied by a billion, make the slightest difference. The number of possible addresses is 2 160. If 10 billion people have generated 1 billion addresses each, then the chances of a new address colliding with any of those is 1 in 2 141. That's a 1 in 2,787,593,149,816,327,892,691,964,784,081,045,188,247,552 chance. Let's pretend that Bitcoin is as big as Visa, which can process 24,000 transactions per second. In a million years, bitcoin will have processed up to 800,000,000,000,000,000 transactions. If a new key were generated for each of those, then there is still only a 1 in 2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance that it will be a duplicate. Well, the chance of some two people having generated the same key is bigger, and that is needed for collision. The chance is still low enough to be neglected. But to answer OP, yes it is possible that the next time you generate an address with your client, you get the key to Satoshi's main wallet and can use his coins. But the chance is really small. Not like winning the lottery, more like the event that you win the lottery this week and your brother wins it the next week and then the both of you get shot while shopping for groceries in two seemingly unrelated killing sprees and then the killers share the next week's lottery jackpot and Macarena regains its popularity and becomes the numbers one hit on major radio stations, and before that a bitcoin whale reading this message thinks it was the best and most inspiring thing he ever read and contacts me and sends me 500 bitcoins because he was so impressed, you know, that sort of thing. |
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Well well well!
After reading the forum a little I think I know why it took so long to find that block!
Maybe because LTC can be mined with asic now and all asic owners tried it!
Just my 2 satoshies!
They can be mined with ASICs, as could any coin, but not the same ASICs, because of the AS in the abbreviation - Application Specific. Litecoin proof-of-work has not changed so ASIC bitcoin miners can still only be used for bitcoin mining, that is a different task. You can see those probabilities I posted, it is easily explained by chance that block generation took so long. About one in five hundred blocks take more than an hour so there it is expected even with rising hash rates that there is an event like that almost once a week (block genaration taking more than one hour). 75 minutes is of course significantly longer and more rare but that will happen too. |
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It seems weird to me too. Can I now assume that the next difficulty increase will slow down now?
Possible...but highly unlikely! According to this website it will not decrease. It is not an exact science, but it is generally accurate. Yes. Some longer block times are to be expected. The difficulty has not decreased for more than a year and there is no reason to suspect it will do so anytime soon, though an exponential increase like this cannot go on for too long either. |
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...there usually there are some magical beliefs involved. Belief in divine intervention and magic in unlikely streaks is a pervasive part of all of human culture. You can show thousands of writings and stories. The Pythagoreans who invented the famous triangle theorem were a religious group. Surely. But unfounded magical beliefs about the game are not really good for a gambler. And mostly it is just ignorance anyway that leads to those beliefs. Nothing wrong with that per se, no one here is completely rational and we all have our strange beliefs and biases whether we choose to accept it or not. |
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Have you ever seen a martingale player that does not care whether she is betting on head or tails, only that she is doubling her bet each time? I can understand that it is easier to bet on just the other and that bots do this, but that I've never seen a martingaler just bet on whichever suggests that there usually there are some magical beliefs involved.
Edit: well, there is just one quite like that a few messages back in this thread
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Probability question for coin flippers
How many times, on average, would you be expected to flip a coin to get THREE HEADS IN A ROW? How about this sequence; heads, tails, heads.
I suggest it is a good exercise for any gambler to work it out. Simple but interesting if you've not thought about it before.
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First, I love how martingale charts look. A perfect martingale will be a straight line with periodic drops of varying magnitude, where deeper drops are exponentially more rare.
Second, is there any way to calculate the probability of a bust on a martingale procession while taking into account the ever-increasing bankroll it provides?
I think it wouldn't be exactly straight, even connecting the peaks, because a: -1 -2 +4 and a -1 -2 -4 -8 -16 +32 both add 1 to the total bankroll, but take different numbers of steps to do so. I've seen people play like: -1 -3 -7 -15 -31 +63 before, which *does* lead to a perfect straight line, since the net gain is equal to the number of steps. The 6 numbers in the previous line sum to 6. It's equivalent to starting a new martingale of size 1 each bet: First bet, bet 1 (and lose) Second bet, bet 2 for the first martingale, and 1 for the new one you're starting: so 3 in total Third bet, bet 4 for the first, 2 for the 2nd and 1 for the new one: 7 in total ... Sixth bet: bet 32 for the 1st, 16 for the 2nd, ..., and 1 for the new one and this time we win, finishing off all 6 concurrent martingales at once. I think the first person I noticed playing this way was the owner of the BTC Guild poll, Eleuthria. It didn't work out too well for him in the end, and unfortunately I can't remember his account number to show the chart. Oh, you're right. Normal martingale is only a straight line if you ignore the losses That's an interesting variation on the martingale, too. It busts much quicker, but it's also a faster earner. Maybe something to try with tiny amounts. Well, nothing too special. Really just like a "one step quicker to lose" version of martingale. With regular martingale the bets are 2 n (starting at n=0): 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32... The other is 2 n+1-1, so it's 1, 3, 7, 15, 31... Sure it's faster because you the bets are risen faster. Why stop there, you could choose to bet 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000... an even faster earner and faster loser. Or bet n factorial; 1, 2, 6, 24, 120, 720... (exponential growth is for the basic martingaler, boooriiing) I myself think it's too slow losing all my money with these noob strategies, betting strategies based on sequences given by primitive recursive functions are super boring anyway. The Ackermann function can give nice sequences to follow, use it to your needs, that's a real pro tip. You make good dough if you keep winning! |
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Dooglus, could you do the bitcoin community a favor and start a new gambling site based on the Monty Hall problem? I would really love to see the threads discussing that if martingale gets people confused.
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If the numbers are off on either side, you can predict either a period of a higher amount of wins or losses, as the statistics HAVE TO balance out.
This is your fundamental misunderstanding. The statistics don't have to balance out in the way you think they do. They balance out, but in a way that gives you no predictive power. Here's why they really balance out: Suppose you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads only twice. 20% when it's meant to be 50% is way off. So you would say "keep playing and it has to balance out". Which is kind of true, but not for the reason you think. If I play a thousand more times, I expect to get about 500 heads and 500 tails. That brings the totals to 502 heads and 508 tails. Now 49.7% of the flips have been heads. Yay, it has "balanced out" from 20% heads to 49.7% heads even though we saw exactly 500 of both heads and tails. And that's why it "balances out". Not because you can predict an excess of tails in the coming rolls to balance it, but because you can predict that the 2 vs 8 weirdness you saw at the start will become insignificant over time as you flip more and more times. Dooglus put it very well! I like the following example myself: think about flipping a coin. You flip the coin 20 times. Every time, you get heads. Now, do you expect that the next one will be tails more probably than the first one, or a few of the next flips? If you think so, that it has to balance out and hence the next flip is more probably tails than heads, then think about this situation: Imagine I had flipped the coin 20 times just before, without you knowing, and got 20 heads in a row. Then you come in and see the coin and decide you want to try some coin flipping. Do you still believe that the 20 previous flips will have any significance as to your odds? Then how so? Surely there is no cosmic memory that knows the coin has been flipped, nor does the coin remember it. Every flip is a similar event, exactly, and it has no relation to the previous ones whatsoever. |
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For those who say Martingale "never works", I woke up this morning to find that Just-Dice had lost 100 BTC overnight. Looking into it, I see it was a single big player who won it, and he won it using Martingale. Here's a chart showing his profit over the last 6 hours: https://i.imgur.com/3GymqSB.pngFirst, I love how martingale charts look. A perfect martingale will be a straight line with periodic drops of varying magnitude, where deeper drops are exponentially more rare. Second, is there any way to calculate the probability of a bust on a martingale procession while taking into account the ever-increasing bankroll it provides? Possible to calculate? Of course such a simple thing is. But that ever-increasing bank roll won't matter much, the gains are very small. What is the probability you'd like to know? It might be so that an exact calculation is unfeasible but also that it would be unnecessary because we could have a very good approximation. The probability of going bust if you keep going on indefinitely is of course 100 % so what probability would you like to know? And of course, a simulation is possible always with these dice games and that's fun to run a few, too. It's possible to run such a simulation with no previous programming experience or math knowledge, if you are willing to look up the basic things and think about it for a while. Python is a great beginner language for example, it's like today's BASIC except that it's suitable for a lot more advanced programming. |
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Would it be possible to buy these miners straight from you in Estonia or are there supply problems?
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...is it taking longer for Bitcoin to confirm payments? I've been sitting here for about 45 minutes waiting for a recent payment to come through and not much going on. It's not a lot, but still...
yet just 12 hours ago someone was complaining of the opposite The oldest block said only "11 minutes" and by the time I decided to grab the data it was 12 minutes: 305068 2 minutes 21 33.05 BTC Discus Fish 12.18164062 305067 2 minutes 22 186.91 BTC GHash.IO 8.73144531 305066 3 minutes 146 660.13 BTC GHash.IO 84.96386719 305065 7 minutes 67 1,599.99 BTC GHash.IO 124.86132812 305064 8 minutes 181 2,296.68 BTC 23.253.207.62 168.10058594 305063 12 minutes 154 3,689.36 BTC GHash.IO 324.90136719 My last transaction confirmed so fast it was amazing.  I know this can happen, but isn't it rare for BTC? bitcoin is not a strict 10 minute rule.. its a fluid(average) 10 minute rule. if theres a influx of fast block creation, then there will be a time of slow block creation just to balance the system. and to add ontop of this. some pools are greedy and make 0 fee transactions wait longer (hate greed) This is somewhat misleading, so I'll just clarify. After those blocks, if there were longer block times, it was merely because of chance. The last difficulty change (that is used to balance the system) was on 5th of June and the next one will be in a few days. Between these times, block times are not balanced in any way, they are randomly found every ten minutes or so, probably a little less than that now as the hash rate is usually growing all the time while the difficulty is adjusted only every 2016 block or approximately two weeks. I posted these stats in another thread, but as I have not seen them posted on these forums before, I repost them in this thread since most have probably not seen my post in the mining section: The probability of finding the next block inless than 1 minute: 9.5 % less than 5 minutes: 39.3 % less than 10 minutes: 63.2 % less than 30 minutes: 95.0 % As you are reading this, the probability that you have to wait more than one hour from this moment until the next block is found is about 0.25 %, small but significant and without checking the blockchain I am quite sure longer block times have been seen many many times before. It would be expected to see a 90 minute block time about once per year. (Well, of course this kind of prediction is not reliable, because in a year there will probably be things are not accounted for in the theoretical model, such as the hash rate drops due to something unexpected) My calculations were based on the assumption of average ten minute block time, which happens when difficulty is "correct" for the current hash rate, and that finding Bitcoin blocks is a very good example of something that is well modeled by a Poisson process. At the time of this post the average block time is probably somewhat less than ten minutes, so the first four probabities should be a bit bigger and the probability for the next block to be found after an hour or more should be even less than 0.25 %. |
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Do some research on Coinabul before you send them any money.
Or just do not send them any money. I lost quite a bit of BTC on that site. Very suspicious, it is the only shipment I have ever lost in the mail. |
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I can't take life anymore. I've come close to killing myself twice, putting myself in the hospital twice and this time I'm just done. I'm a degenerate gambler. I asked Nitrogen to IP ban me and they said they did but they didn't. I didn't change IPs or use anything different and today I went to Nitrogen and was fooling around with the prop bets. I didn't realize my deposit of 1.16 BTC had come in and I placed a bet that will never hit on some nobody for my full balance. I didn't mean to do this. I'm now broke and can't do this anymore. Ive failed everyone in my life, my parents know of my problem and don't want anythingto do with me. I can't do this anymore. I just want to die and im going to go thru with it tonight. Nitrogen wont help, nobody will. It was an accident and my life savings are gone. I wish they would have banned me like they said they did. https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ed5fef4dnhFV0k4SVZ6eHVIckZHeGp5TUEwZz09/r/48971/Im going to write a letter to my parents and my girlfriend and explain to them what happened. I dont want to live anymore, my problem will never get better. Ill always be a disappointment to everyone. Truly. I dont deserve to live anymore and thus im going to take my whole prescription of sleeping pills once I write the letters and tell everyone goodbye. it has been a great experience getting to know all you people in bitcoin and i wish you the best. I hope you all never fall down the path of gambling that i did. Goodbye. What kind of sleeping pills are those? Your chances of taking your life with almost any of those that are being prescribed nowadays are very very slim. Please do not try that, or any better method either. Sorry to hear that. But spending your savings isn't that bad, it wasn't even credit. Some people don't have money at all. You can start a new life and get someone to take care of your money if you are unable to. Good luck. Edit: you really lost only 1 bitcoin or what? You could make that back by selling that prescription on Silk Road instead. I've lost $2500+ to Nitrogen. I've asked them multiple times to ban me, everytime they said they did but they didn't. I have never changed any IP or anything so I don't know why they claim they have banned me. I don't fucking care. I have a butcher knife I'll use and slit my throat. Im just done with this. I'm tired of crying and life in general. Sounds painful. Why not just go skydiving and not open your parachute or something? You'd probably have a nice funeral that way too. Yeah or just die in an "accident", and get an insurance well before that. That would be nice considering the family since that was important. |
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I can't take life anymore. I've come close to killing myself twice, putting myself in the hospital twice and this time I'm just done. I'm a degenerate gambler. I asked Nitrogen to IP ban me and they said they did but they didn't. I didn't change IPs or use anything different and today I went to Nitrogen and was fooling around with the prop bets. I didn't realize my deposit of 1.16 BTC had come in and I placed a bet that will never hit on some nobody for my full balance. I didn't mean to do this. I'm now broke and can't do this anymore. Ive failed everyone in my life, my parents know of my problem and don't want anythingto do with me. I can't do this anymore. I just want to die and im going to go thru with it tonight. Nitrogen wont help, nobody will. It was an accident and my life savings are gone. I wish they would have banned me like they said they did. https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ed5fef4dnhFV0k4SVZ6eHVIckZHeGp5TUEwZz09/r/48971/Im going to write a letter to my parents and my girlfriend and explain to them what happened. I dont want to live anymore, my problem will never get better. Ill always be a disappointment to everyone. Truly. I dont deserve to live anymore and thus im going to take my whole prescription of sleeping pills once I write the letters and tell everyone goodbye. it has been a great experience getting to know all you people in bitcoin and i wish you the best. I hope you all never fall down the path of gambling that i did. Goodbye. What kind of sleeping pills are those? Your chances of taking your life with almost any of those that are being prescribed nowadays are very very slim. Please do not try that, or any better method either. Sorry to hear that. But spending your savings isn't that bad, it wasn't even credit. Some people don't have money at all. You can start a new life and get someone to take care of your money if you are unable to. Good luck. Edit: you really lost only 1 bitcoin or what? You could make that back by selling that prescription on Silk Road instead. I've lost $2500+ to Nitrogen. I've asked them multiple times to ban me, everytime they said they did but they didn't. I don't fucking care. I have a butcher knife I'll use and slit my throat. Im just done with this. I'm tired of crying and life in general. 2500 dollars is something you could make back in a couple of monts by posting on this forum with a paid sig for chrissakes. Then get someone to handle your money for you and move on. Or get any job. Take acid. Losing 2500 dollars is no biggie, you don't even have debt do you. |
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