please read this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.0" That's the kind of speculation I am interested in, the big picture. How the world might (or might not change) the actual price is not so interesting. I just picked a big number to illustrate the potential magnitude of what one possible outcome might result in. It's a top end estimate but well within the realm of possibility.
What is more telling is that if you consider wilth1's "niche market" scenario you need to think about what kind of market cap that works for. if you still use the s curve + fluctuation model and take the ATH of 1230 as your absolute ATH, then the price that btc ultimately settles at cannot really ever be much lower that what we are at now.
Any argument that it is going to crash to zero, or single digits or even double digits just doesn't make any sense when you consider the big picture. all the "crash" posts seem to reason that price will go down because price has been going down. They assume a zero demand scenario, which is way more outlandish than assuming btc will go mainstream. If you have nonzero demand then evey halving if price means your going to see twice the demand. This kind of exponential increase in buying pressure will ultimately halt any sell off of an asset with limited supply.
Sure we could go half off, maybe even half off again, but the lower we go the more resistance there is because for x dollar amount you have to sell more btc. Totally simple, totally obvious to probably everyone reading this, but it is the massive gorilla in the room whenever you read any Bitcoin to the gutter post.
Ah, but Bitcoin to the moon posts are the same but in reverse!
No. Ther is only ~14m bitcoin, selling supply dries up quickly, on upticks there is infinite dollars. Buying supply can theoretically never dry up.
Assuming the pie ends up a serious size. Which is basically all that your long term holders are assuming. It's all about peice of the pie. " Pfft. That guy sounds crazy! It's obviously going to zero⸮ |
|
|
|
Hardfork to make it bloat more! Centralization, you unable to store the complete blockchain. 20MB blocks. Hardfork without consensus on it. Risk a split of the network. What's going to happen next? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=919629.0trollogic: WAH! bitcoin is fail because block size too small! ..time passes, block size increases... WAH! bitcoin is fail because block size too big! No. Will fail because seven transactions per second is laughable for a real currency. Will fail because the alternative is hardfork & blockchain bloat. Why does such trivial shit need to be explained? Because cognitive dissonance is a bitch. Yes the cognitive dissonance of being sure that you are right that nothing will usurp your real money. That you worked so hard for, that you wholly believe to be the one true money. The absolutely overwhelming terror of potentially being wrong. Continuing to see daily evidence that shows everything you believe in may be a lie. Desperately seeking ways to discredit the alternatives. Cognitive dissonance is indeed a bitch. The real truth is it could go either way. I am comfortable with whatever the outcome. I'm not wed to bitcoins colossal success or its utter failure, or anything in between. You both seem to be trapped in a corner of your own making. Fortunately for both of you, you have the chance to escape! All you need to do is not change any of your real money for bitcoin and to assure your continued happiness, delete your accounts and never visit this forum again. If you carry on hanging round here, reminding yourself of the alternative, you'll just make yourself more and more depressed. Do yourselves a favour end the suffering. |
|
|
|
bitcoin will succeed for these reasons:
world governments neck deep in debt, defaults will come soon
VC investing millions into bitcoin ecosystem
new credit card hacks against major retailers every week
other, smarter retailers, already accepting bitcoin
anyone with college degree will be investing by next year when it becomes clear bitcoin is future
the rock ship to the moon is being fueld, are you ready to get on board or will you wait behind to watch the moon walk from the TV?
do not sell your bitcoin on any false drops. bitcoin is going nowhere but up!
|
|
|
|
Hardfork to make it bloat more! Centralization, you unable to store the complete blockchain. 20MB blocks. Hardfork without consensus on it. Risk a split of the network. What's going to happen next? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=919629.0trollogic: WAH! bitcoin is fail because block size too small! ..time passes, block size increases... WAH! bitcoin is fail because block size too big! |
|
|
|
This is one of the observations I made during the last year that is still puzzling me. Many of the "old hands" (let's say, registration 2012 and before) seem to have a very keen nose for the market state in general terms.
I'm not talking about the most general intuition, the 'in retrospect, any price turns out to be a good price per coin on a long enough horizon' idea. I share that one, but it's more of a shared hope we have here, but it hasn't been tested that much yet.
I mean a more specific one: the one where the legendary (previously: hero) members have a pretty good feel for when the market is about to turn, both towards 'hopeless, prepare for a serious correction' but also at the other end, 'don't expect that much panic anymore'. It's not universally shared among that class of members of course (some are almost always too bullish, some almost always too bearish), but a good number of the old members that I follow seem to be able to get a rough reading on what the state of the market is.
No deeper insight I can offer. Just something I believe to have noticed.
Possible explanations: 1. The key is brains. Early accepters are smarter, in general. To invent bitcoin you have to be very very smart, to understand and appreciate you have to be very smart, and so on. 2. The key is knowledge. For the 4 years of trading they've became B.Sc of trading. 3. The key is managing your emotions. For 4 years they got enough emotional experience to be able to control them. 4. The key is natural talent. 4 years of natural selection took ones with it. The rest is broken or just left the forum. Well. Heaps of versions and no idea which one to chose. Just like with trading. There always a lot of plausible theories about why the price must go up and lot - about why it must go down. And I always choose wrong one  Re: #1, it would be interesting to administer an IQ test to all bitcointalk participants and correlate with date of account registration. Or, does anyone know of a script to estimate IQ from forum posts? No such thing exists, and you should probably be glad about that. 2015 is looking like the year that nematode registration goes through the roof! |
|
|
|
It's a minor thing this, and too late now, but shouldn't the competition be run in BTC? What I mean is you should start with (say) 1 BTC and the aim is to get the most BTC... If you are currently in dollars your rank is calculated at what it's worth in BTC presently, new entries get median BTC etc Just thought it would remind people what's really important  |
|
|
|
 Did you forget to take your meds today? a troll/sock/alt not reading a post before responding? this must be a first. |
|
|
|
I think we can all agree that real beauty comes from a fixed supply and resistance to double spending.
great work, right there |
|
|
|
poco a poco!
had just a few music lessons-had to look it up I was more familiar with crescendo  well if it does then it will! its little things like this that make it look like it might. I couldn't quite imagine how "wall st" was just going to suddenly jump on board, but this makes it seem all the more plausible. It only takes a few guys to test the water, then everyone else inevitably has to follow 'just in case'. Then all of a sudden, instead of mooching around at $10 the price shoots up to $1266... no wait... that was last time |
|
|
|
|
something happening? I'm getting blank page instead of maintenence message...
|
|
|
|
|
the problem is, its become so that people don't care about being *right*.
people seem to only care about other people being wrong.
sad but true.
|
|
|
|
God almighty, this place is exactly like it was in 2010.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 How can it be like it *was* in 2015? |
|
|
|
wtf you guys. I can't believe you're talking about blacklisting these coins, as if that would be a good thing. No.
That would be one giant leap toward the traditional banking cartel. When you receive payment for something, do you want to have to check to see if any of those bits you got were from these stolen coins (or the thousands of others)? Were they within a couple transactions of these coins? Comb the entire transaction history to make sure they are not blacklisted somewhere? That sounds like a huge burden. Are you going to pay to have someone else do that for you? Those are the only 2 choices.
You want every coin to have special rules attached to it? Oh, this coin can't go to Bitstamp, and that one can't go to XXXX. That makes some coins worth more than others, and it means you're taking a risk every time you buy coins which you can't verify the history of. Fungibility is one of the key properties of bitcoin that make it better than the alternatives. You should not throw it away to maybe make this one guy's life more difficult.
Yeah, it sucks that these coins were stolen, and it's looking like the person who perpetrated the act may in fact be a bad guy. But it's time to shift the paradigm folks. These coins were stolen because it was possible to steal them. Bitstamp made that possible. Traditional money services have high fees to cover this shit, and bitcoin has low fees because it's secure, and you don't need to cover this shit if you're transacting properly. If you do something dumb, it's on you, we're not charging the consumers for the mistakes and inefficiencies of the money transmitters anymore. That's the point of bitcoin.
Bitstamp is in the process of rewriting their entire system from the ground up, to prevent this sort of thing happening again. Can you imagine Visa doing this after the Target hack? No, they keep doing the same thing, because you guys keep paying for their losses. There's no point in them changing anything. Bitstamp had suck ass security, a hacker fined them 5 million dollars for it. Their security (supposedly) will improve as a result. Gox died as a result, and we'd all have been better off if it happened way sooner than it did. Incompetence is not an option in this space, unless you have a shit ton of money to burn.
quite agree. its great the coins can be tracked, and this can probably help in tracing and capturing and bring to justice the perpetrators. traditional law enforcement should enforce the law. in the meantime bitcoin should just carry on being bitcoin and not be concerned about who owns what coins and whether one coin is any less valid than any other. |
|
|
|
Except he posted a chart of PUBLIC debt. Deleveraging happens on the PRIVATE side!
deleveraging doesn't pick sides. debt can be deleveraged, public or private. isn't that the point - that the deleveraging of public debt by governments has pretty serious ramifications? from the deleveraging link above... At the micro-economic level, deleveraging refers to the reduction of the leverage ratio, or the percentage of debt in the balance sheet of a single economic entity, such as a household or a firm. It is the opposite of leveraging, which is the practice of borrowing money to acquire assets and multiply gains and losses.
At the macro-economic level, deleveraging of an economy refers to the simultaneous reduction of debt levels in multiple sectors, including private sectors and the government sector. It is usually measured as a decline of the total debt to GDP ratio in the national account. The deleveraging of an economy following a financial crisis has significant macro-economic consequences and is often associated with severe recessions. Make up your mind man. You want the gov't to pay down debt or not? I don't care what they do just pointing out that one way or another the piper gets paid! |
|
|
|
Except he posted a chart of PUBLIC debt. Deleveraging happens on the PRIVATE side!
deleveraging doesn't pick sides. debt can be deleveraged, public or private. isn't that the point - that the deleveraging of public debt by governments has pretty serious ramifications? from the deleveraging link above... At the micro-economic level, deleveraging refers to the reduction of the leverage ratio, or the percentage of debt in the balance sheet of a single economic entity, such as a household or a firm. It is the opposite of leveraging, which is the practice of borrowing money to acquire assets and multiply gains and losses.
At the macro-economic level, deleveraging of an economy refers to the simultaneous reduction of debt levels in multiple sectors, including private sectors and the government sector. It is usually measured as a decline of the total debt to GDP ratio in the national account. The deleveraging of an economy following a financial crisis has significant macro-economic consequences and is often associated with severe recessions. |
|
|
|
Maybe we all win |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
