New value isnt so likely created as we see value redirected from elsewhere.   There is a utility to BTC and I think worth from that but alot of this discussion would be from people using BTC instead of trying to sort through all the processes to deal with Dollar.  Alot of people in the world have only distant contact with Dollars at least digitally, hence why so much paper is circulating outside the borders of USA.

I watched the fight last night and I thought Nate easily could have been given the win at certain points.  I missed some of the earlier rounds but he did more then a decent performance and defense during the fight.   Somebody I was watching with has trained as a boxer and done some fights non professionally and said Jake Paul had the win before the end for more consistent performance but to me it was a close thing.  I believe Jake Paul loses the MMA rematch personally his advantage will be gone when not on home tough as it were

Theres always a range of prices possible with various probabilities and its constantly changing, BTC doesnt even halt for the weekend or any holidays when all other markets do.   Statistics and probability is used in every industry sector from engineering to medicine for confidence to reliability of results known and expected further out.  Its perfectly valid in that respect to give a prediction without an absolute known result.

It is convenience and that rule of law which makes it so dominant but its all lost if you cant go to sleep and retain most of your value you had when you saved it there.   Savings that lose value are a horrible irony and waste of time when it really slips out of control.   There is point where every FIAT currency just has to give up, they cannot pay their debt and printing more is pointless.
  Many modern countries are in a similar situation to Greece with overwhelming debt spent on projects not yielding any benefit long term just spent money that cannot be expected to be returned.   The difference being they have retained the ability to print off new money to pay off the old debtors, its a soft default not hard but all the same value is lost in the process and many countries have repeated that loss to debt holders many a dozen or hundred times.   Eventually we require an alternative despite government mandating usage of their particular branding to paper transfer of value, the fungibility and liquidity I think fails to maintain the status of any modern FIAT currency, very few retain the ability to actually back their paper with a promise to exchange for worth on demand.

In Venezuela or similar its a weight of 10 lbs of paper to buy  1 lb of meat and its probably become worse since I saw that video.   All countries do this and all the Federal reserve promises to do for example is maintain orderly markets, they give no promise to keep value retained only not let slip entirely the rope holding up the façade .

MSTR has leverage which would be a positive and negative, ultimately I would want to step away from that vulnerability.   Usually leverage costs money and it may be expensive to unwind when or if BTC became unpopular for speculators.  Right now we appear to have a decent long term trend, with every quarter despite upsets is slightly less negative tone so its an accumulative atmosphere.  The lowest prices are the best guidance not uneven peaks.  This build in sentiment is only just beginning but its quite possible it keeps on track for some time.
  I just wouldnt want to have MSTR when people peak in sentiment or get too hyped, thats when its best to deleverage; I cant assume Saylor can ride that wave perfectly.

Arbitrage appears a good idea, I agree it seems smart ideal value realization but also it can add risk instead of being the profit anticipated from the gap closing.  Most famous example of arbitrage failure is LTCM which involved Nobel prize winners, Im not that clever so I presume its alot harder then it looks.   My general take is volatility rises in many assets and its normal to expect that in BTC.

Emergency funds are for when you are ill or similar no alternative fast situations, so the answer is in the question.   The only person who can really answer this properly is OP or at best you gain the advice of an investment adviser of some kind.  I'd say preferably they should be independent not attached to any particular bank, etc.    Advisers have insurance coverage to their business and a large amount of experience, if they advise you badly on these decisions you can always claim on their insurance if professionally negligent.  They cant cover normal risks and market fallout, thats not their fault but discussing a structured plan for the idea of emergency funds, cash flow vs investment seems well within their remit.

A watched kettle never boils is an old saying, meaning the more people expect something the less likely it becomes.   If we gain from 20k to 30k that is a large amount by any normal measure, not many other assets can move like that.  Yet we are talking about patience when performance in this asset is far better then many others this year.   I think we have to accept that so many people are impatient and involved and every 10k the price is going to reset because it needs to accommodate all the people who sell off every gain.  Its the price of being mainstream and relying on a wider more diverse audience for involvement in those gains.

Slipping below weekly average for a while now. Below the ice in terms of failing to recover the prior highs for some time also.   Its looking like we revise the whole set of prices down to 25k more certainly every day.      What isnt certain is how we dip down, brief spike or a slow sink to the bottom of the trench     I think price generally needs to hit bottom or discover the boundaries of its range, once its done so some confidence is recovered and we can start to begin back up to test the other side of the box we're in.  Thats how I generally think of pricing, nobody wants to be the person who steps in front of a mack truck and bets we go up from here, it takes alot to stop the inertia as sometimes BTC is unstoppable not just down but up as well but not for now.

I had a bad outcome with 2 pocket aces recently and thought thats a simple enough question to ask the bot.   There is no right answer, I think we all know that but what it replied was fair advice I guess.  I dont see this as disrupting the game, people already can be advised and learn from examples etc.

The real change overall that would tilt the world with the difference it could make is utility through ease of use.  So the bot giving me quoted text, its not revolutionary but if the bot is somehow intelligently integrated, available & immediate with my actions or prospective actions with statistical odds given for each scenario then sure we can start to say AI is significant in its potential interference.   Even after all that I can lose, its not a game breaker.

Its not certain or absolute that a paper note for money must lose money.  If we have a fixed ratio of paper to a set value then it cannot lose value in that normal way except by default otherwise its just a paper equal and has utility by means of easier circulation and divisibility.  Unfortunately what has happened is the ratio of value to nominal paper note figure is variable and invariably the ratio loosens almost constantly.    
  By design central banks are determined we have inflation of 2% per year so that much is true, they have no target to maintain value.  Over the course of your life 2% is alot of accumulated losses.    Factors to look at are fiscal deficit and trade deficit, both these things will indicate acceleration of losses.

Every currency has a feasible end with zero worth to its units so yea in dollars the figure could get to 1 dollar per satoshi.   If we stick to actual value, exchangeable worth for food or any commodity not this pure face value nominal figure with a floating value then I would not try to argue the cost of transmitting BTC will amount to this much.    BTC isnt due to become horribly inefficient even if inflation continues and dollar value is continually lost with prices rising alot;  this only is a burden to Dollar users and its their impedance and loss to carry not that BTC has been negative in its propagation and usage.

The military rule Venezuela, any idea of fair elections seems remote to me.  So far as I know the elected official for that country is via the parliament system but thats constitutional law for that particular country and its in dispute currently with the people holding the guns determining who is in power (not any court legal process etc.).   There's no chance of a bet because its a pre determined outcome.    I didnt see anything much proven in USA, theres always some small amount because of recent deaths and votes used wrongly etc.    


Balance of play altering in nomination process for Republican candidate if we follow that money is quite essential for success.  Usually theres alot spent on advertising with money a big requirement.  I read recently the DeSantis campaign had used up all resources so was just drifting which wont leave them with much chance across an entire country.  Support shifting over to that campaign away from Trump is big news if true:

Great I like the long term threads, the hodl guy I believe was still around though my memory might be wrong as it wasn't recent but it had too many non relevant posts on it so it was locked and the guy who sold his house to buy BTC also he did an update if Im remembering right but they should now start a new thread to update and it'd be just as valid.

A long term view is needed but I wonder how people estimate or keep a fair target over many years.  I use charts alot and totally rely on how the various time frames integrate to give a bigger picture over a decade or more.  Which news source would you be relying on besides this forum perhaps, if anything the people involved over a decade or more should be speaking more on their perspective & experiences etc.  as we have varied greatly over that time.


[Hodl is not active user but did remake a thread - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1919742.0]

I like when people look out to the monthly, gains losses and movements because thats probably far more important and easier to discern a trend in.   Us scrabbling about during a week trying to decide the direction is quickly looking like nonsense as BTC price action runs rings around us.
  Monthly bars is going to take alot more time and patience to quietly assess its progress, tortoise and the hare fable perhaps   slow progress wins out.  2023 has been a positive year so far but it sure doesn't feel much like it, we're climbing a hill and its a hot day the struggle is real
   The one point I was going to make is that the monthly bar view would fit against something equally gigantic and lumbering like the US dollar index which in some way describes alot of the worlds currency flows because of the global reserve system and each major central bank holding some reserves of the others etc.
   Convoluted as that Forex idea might be I would hope its quite simply observed in that we did fail to break the 100 mark recently to the downside, this would have been a big deal; inversely 100 and lower DXY relates to the recent peak BTC pricing I think.   So in simplest terms do we now have to test the upper boundary or range to DXY and see reaction there.   Lets hope DXY finds a ceiling well below 105 and this then marks off August as either a positive month or a turn around for BTC Pricing in 2023.  I do also think Autumn brings storms and harsher moves.

A billion is only 1 million people each with 1000 each and countries usually have far more people that with that amount of money available.   Ultimately concentrated wealth only matters while the money is deployed the millions of people in some way, if its not doing so then its not really relevant to economics.



I hear this point made alot and its down to accountancy and how companies are taxed.  The billionaires if classed by cash in their banks only or the income taken per year would look very different and this is how they taxed and how much they are taxed each year.  Obviously nobody likes paying tax, the simple route taken by the very rich is to avoid taking income directly so they own companies just like every citizen can hold shares in a company and by doing so you are not liable for how that company is taxed.
  There are reasons why its all arranged this way, to only decide tax policy via newspaper headlines would lead to chaos.   Populism is expensive, its what they tried to do in Venezuela seizing companies who made profits.   It has caused poverty by obstruction to open free business, its ironic but interfering with the economy to raise immediate taxes causes more harm then good.

It we arent to hold the current area or above, recover quickly the good momentum we had previous then it would seem likely we do visit the mid 20's at least.    Seems like we have to confirm all the lower prices of the last few months, just when it seemed we had them in the past.
  Price is below the weekly average for some time now, we lost the 50 day and so on.  The only thing thats big and matters is that the moving averages are still with inertia upwards which in theory means there are positives out there then turn this price around however its either sideways or down lately.

Overall I think we confirm the pricing then we move, its drifiting its slow so any idea of conclusion and resolving negatives is distant for now.

Ironic thing with Astralis and Navi is you have many great players there but two of which are opposite ends of their all time ratings.  Device has never played and rated better in games then he is doing right now.  S1mple has never registered so badly with the lowest ratings he has ever had.     In a match up we should probably be favoring Astralis more then normal till some normality occurs or we just write off the old s1mple perhaps which I wont do personally for at least a year

Petrol is not deemed essential in the majority of the world that I know of, this is going to vary by country and the geological layout vs the population centers I suppose.  The most many can hope for is cheap public transport like buses to be provided, I think subsidy on petrol would indicate either a commodity rich country or just a very helpful government as I've never had something like that in my favor.  
   In any country without alot of oil, massive taxes on oil, energy and car usage are often levied and its been like that for decades.   Its a big burden and almost equal to income taxes for some people.    I have mixed views on subsidy because it normally is paired with massive government and the larger the government that exists the greater the possibility for losses from that behemoth weight on the economy.   Theres always the chance of perfect government, ideal efficiency and perfect assistance to those that need it but I dont especially believe in such a dream hence subsidy is for food only and that is the essentials to the young and old imo.

I dont even presume we will be there soon, the really irritating part of BTC is when it just tumbles sideways in a flat spin, we move without traction.  My take is the really vital cogs to Bitcoin exist on higher time frames, alot of space occurs in between action for the 3 largest time frames on every chart.     Apparently in those times we move with no momentum, after rising so fast its triggering for anyone that we intersperse fast action with seemingly nothingness and BTC does this all the time and defies predictions.    Beyond patience is needed, just forget about it for the moment is probably best.  Time and price are both tested in turn seems like the order of service to this proclamation where Bitcoin finally rises from its early grave

The main point on this discussion should be that no one player should be able to break the casino.  Its a myth in the majority, there is some stories written about the idea of it happening and perhaps many more stories where some fraud occurred.  Most famous of which I can recall is the fight over slot machines and all the tools that would get used to trick those machines into paying out when they shouldn't, that happened for a long time and doesn't now so far as I know.   A single player shouldn't be able to because the casino should be aware of all the risks and limits to one single players game, they are required to do the maths and be able to handle that game.   However it is still feasibly possible alot of luck variance to occur and a great cash call to appear on the casino reserves, most of the time that should not ever be happening and staff surely monitor the stats for such occurrence because of the fallout, security, etc.