I expected a reversal by now but you can tell the price is slowing in its attempts upwards.     The main trigger is I think is external like news event and the dollar index.  The overall move is fair but much faster up then down would be how I would have predicted it, quite a few thought 40k would be possible as soon as 30k was passed.  This whole area is strewn with old volume and trades delaying any recovery upwards, even with continued buying there is probably enough sellers to stop price being forced upwards.

China has a falling working population, its a big hole in its growth story potential.   This mostly effects banks who have leveraged those speculating on those markets.   The ironic thing about China despite its massive size as a country they will soon be 2nd largest country in the world after decades of forcing families to discard any children beyond just one allowed.  This has a massive effect on the underlying expansion of the country, China will continue to develop and improve as an economy and people with higher income but it will be at a slower rate and the biggest requirement is for a high efficiency to their actions.
  Its well known the property sector was inefficient in many ways to the extent of being dangerous and corrupt in parts.  Buildings are condemned without ever being occupied and/or built in areas not requiring populations of people to live.  The communists can force anything to be true by rule of the gun but they cannot alter basic economic and market laws, it leads to failure anyway despite the political will and backing of the largest national banks.   I do think those banks will be the weak spot but no doubt they are supported by the state.

At present 35k is looking like a support level, I dont know I want to trade it right now but in theory you buy into strength and trade it for as long as you can as it ascends.  Otherwise you'd be waiting forever on a pullback that wont often occur in bullish trends.  Complicating factor might be this is near a Fibonacci level also about 37k is us retracing 38% of the immediate 2022 low from the late '21 high.


Looking on 4hr bars, its like a game of ping pong back and forth.   A steady progression upwards however I dont like to presume anything is totally proved but both these levels seem to bear some significance in trading across global markets:

The blue line is my rough take for a division between positive and negative action, we are gaining but with more confidence would be good.

The main reason I would suspect for energy prices rising is that USA has expended its reserves for quite a long time and cannot continue to do so forever.  If that supply is no longer there and there is any constriction elsewhere with demand continuing to rise post covid it would be enough to bring prices up.  The middle east effect as mentioned has not yet appeared in the sharp way its done so previously and I would not guess on that expansion of the troubles as its unfortunately not a new scenario despite the many deaths.  The missile launch from Yemen is surprising but not the threat it could be if defenses were not already prepared for such a thing, I can remember Saddam launching scud missiles at Israel many years ago in a desperate attempt to cause chaos.

Its not a joke though, I agree the 5 second view is what the hell is Barbie even in the line up for.  Oscars, film royalty the greatest actors in their generation etc. so why would you do this but comedies can make the Oscars all sorts of film types, funny animated films anything.  I think the main deciding factor and swing to votes is usually a theme of some kind, if you can watch Barbie and find some message and believe thats what the Oscars might vote on and it might win then you have a bet; its 17x odds so we arent requiring much down to win a fair amount it just has to have some slight chance there.   
  Its outside bet for sure but I like the long shot bets, thats just me and Ive yet to decide for sure just yet.  I havent even watched them all yet, thats probably most important.

Same sort of deal is why interest rates can be confusing, credit cards always want to quote monthly as it can easily confuse people how they add it all up to the annual cost.  Compounding and so on complicates matters but they've been fair here and its equalized on the yearly view.   Same sort of mixup can happen when looking at the daily interest given, its only altogether and including compound that its 4% or higher but daily its all alot smaller but still I like that its daily; banks dont give that convenience on deposits some of them Im never sure they pay me anything as it takes forever to appear.

I was just wondering if anyone heard of this site taking Ethereum as a deposit.  Would this not boost traffic and open availability to a wider audience.  I just figured that'd be an easy way to gain more revenue and also its helpful to the players to have the ability to bet ETH.  I know we can bet on the ETH price so maybe its possible.  I guess this decision on this idea was already considered at some point but every year ETH is a bit more established so who knows maybe we can see it ?

Whats better policy for taxation is to tax companies who do employ accountants and run formal books.   The risk run with taxing a population with small amounts gambled or spent is they become criminalized by the paperwork and inability to file any forms on time or correctly.  It makes far more sense to have any national policy vs companies, again legally they will have staff to be aware of all the varying laws over time.   Personal tax was not common until the modern age, its only in the last century its now every person not the companies who are held responsible which is unfortunate and clumsy imo.

I can and have legally paid for items with BTC for 10 years or more and many will continue to do so in increasing numbers.   Whats being asked for here is national recognition and partiall backing by a government or central bank and this will never occur.   BTC issuance is via a 3rd party, very few governments will accept outside control like that especially when they feel the policy is unknown and possibly unfriendly to them.
  Many countries countries currency has often been in lock step to dollar but usually this was with USA as either an ally or trading partner hence it makes sense and adds stability to their economy to do so.  Also USA makes an effort to be clear and signal well in time any moves or alterations to policy, for good reason as they too benefit by usage of dollar.   BTC is just not lined up to perform in that way imo, I dont think there is any intention to do so .

Certainly not a dumb question, the basic thing to accept is BTC is speculative and alot would be upset I say that but  I only define it as such amidst dollar speculative flows and these do mainly come from the current USD policy.   Also my view would be there is a very peaky not too reliable top price and its nice for headlines but not dependable or a consistent price;  also there is a base price to BTC that reflects far more its actual usage not as much speculation.
   Despite all the pretence, USD, fiscal and central bank are both easy money policy.   I can say that in context to having seen interest rates well over 10% for many years as was required by markets at the time.  Everything now is very fluffy easy going compared to the harsh extremes seen as recently as 3 decades ago.    Probably from the Clinton administration onwards we havent made any attempt to return to hard money.   For speculative assets and market speculators borrowing the dollar that matters, BTC is a target for leveraged funds mostly coming from either central banks or the fiscal deficit which equates to far too many dollars in circulation relative to GDP growth.     We havent yet seen dollar index fall but unless they continue to raise rates I believe it will and its on purpose.

Arguably the bear market was over this entire year, we just needed time to prove the premise.   A small amount who believe that  is not enough, more evidence is required for a broad market rally.    The reason confidence can grow is multi faceted, both trend, volume support in areas under traded and the moving averages reflecting positively on multiple time frames.   Between all those measures people from multiple perspectives will accept that BTC has the ability to regain regularly is more a buy then sell.
  The final key to me that is not there yet is outside BTC, its the dollar index.  We sit in a larger pool of liquidity and DXY or dollar index was gaining last year and this year.  I wont take us to be fully bullish until DXY falls below 100; we had an attempt prior this year now this next attempt will be the retest etc.  can take many months as its trillions of dollars globally.

AI doesnt have its own model, unless its formulated or been updated with that kind of reasoning.  They do have the ability to search and discover other peoples extrapolations, hopes, guesses and some data.  That means the search AI is reflecting the market rather then bringing in new data of its own or being separate in any way its more of a way to collate data then find a new independent view of BTC trajectory.   People already mistrust Technical analysis, I dont why they'd prefer AI chat bots except it makes those pages of data more digestible and is read out for people to hear which is nice but its nothing solid for its guess.

I bought 12.5k to begin with because its visible the very first tiers are really easy entry for anyone interested, not a tiny amount but relatively small.   I did add more later as it was cheaper to do so I'd be looking at each rolling performance figures I guess.  The higher tiers are most beneficial in a percentage way to the oil sheiks and the like who have something to deposit and also the cashback from gambling is fortuitous;  I suppose this would equate to helping the odds situation on every bet since you get back some.   Helps the site gain more bettors, raise revenue and helps those who take part to get the best odds available in effect.
  I dont know if there is a drop (it seems to be truckin') but I figure its a hedged thing, if next stop is the moon then whose to complain if we dont get that prior to halvening then we most likely check all prior support levels.  Snake n ladders theorem 101     ETF news in the weeks into the new year which can be rough seas anyway

My knowledge of the game Monopoly is a large part of the game is chance which is a fair enough assessment of how economic cycles can wipe out anyone good or bad sometimes.    As a game its fine but I wouldn't expect too much in education exactly though hopefully they like it.   Any game which promotes some critical thinking, possibly patience and a plan that will all help them eventually with real world planning imo though its a game its a good one generally

The service sector has been in retraction but essential industry like agriculture and commodities has been surprisingly durable.  These are sectors which are more important really, retail suffering is an impact on jobs but can also easily rebound as well.   Longer term investment required for mining farming and many export industries are a primary sector still important to a balanced economy in most countries, this is most important to protect and maintain momentum in.
    I would call that positive though it might be a less bright point to make, sales of heavy good vehicles, earth moving equipment is still good and in demand also one of the few companies maintaining vs inflation are these companies hence diversity is a strength in an economy.

Straight away its possible to underline this as a mistake.  If you will not give yourself a break how can you expect your best performance and handling of the game.   I make mistakes of course I do, Im human and people are capable of playing well, doing their best or at times making unforced mistakes.  If you never give yourself a break, you are undermining your own chances.   You will perform badly if tired, if drunk, if stressed, if distracted & multiple points can take a person down;  all these factors move the odds in your favor or against you obviously we want all possible positives behind us and to play the best game we can to win.  Its upto you to take care of yourself, the best decision can often actually be to walk away to chill out, rest, prepare, focus your thoughts to come back when best ready to succeed.

The win is valuable no matter what if you guessed all the factors right and were correct in your bet take that forward and you can always bet more in future.  I get this attitude from sports betting I guess but I feel like its true always with bettors, they get confidence from wins and lose it from losses but the main deal to me and a large part of my enjoyment is knowing or at least feeling Im in some control of the outcomes possible.   I hate being blindsided by a loss I didnt feel would occur, so if I win even if I didnt bet big it helps to make the day for me tbh.
  Its a good thing because the win should matter more then the money itself, if you only play for the money I think you will be vulnerable to losses when maybe others can walk away and chalk up the day to the gains of others but not yourself; we wont always win but I want to appreciate when I do

Malta is within the EU and is trying to set itself up as friendly towards crypto I think hence why it might have cleared access more widely in Europe.  UK being ex-eu but retaining alot of the laws and agreements anyway sounds like that is the case for the variance.

Not sure they take orders via a public thread.


Most assets are valued by their yield and efficiency of the task they perform, I dont buy things to sit on a shelf though thats also a thing.  In crypto I think we are talking about liquidity and the volume velocity alot of the time, in that the more something is traded the higher it can be valued at from that constant exchange.    If FUN were traded as widely as BTC or ETH or even ETC just everywhere and anywhere it was back and forth sold and bought its monetary base worth would be alot higher even though the base case and usage would remain the same as being a reward and loyalty token on this site.    I dont see the case for loss being straightforward because its base usage hasnt altered though the yield via odds was reduced we just have the dynamics of market supply demand and this velocity in market turnover that has the price nominally lower.

So 3x together is near 99% I didnt realize it was that extreme or I forgot since I last looked, so all other alternate options would be not alot more then 1% if thats the case.    That would match what mostly appears to happen, its mostly about that base reward.  Hence I speculate on its movement ironically just for fun

The reason commodities outrank and outperform FIAT is the supply and demand is self defined and they have been the backing for currencies in the past due to this long term strong commodity market.   The present backing we have for paper currency is politics, they control people who pay taxes and they are spending and borrowing as much as possibly the supply of more money is way too lax and doesn't seem likely to end without a crash.     Most commodities are far more reliable though subject to industrial economic progress hence politics oversees that too to some extent and can interfere in all markets.  I still trust commodity value far more then cash however its frequently less liquid which is a problem for many as we live in a world and economy powered by debt.

A legend whose won alot needs to develop a broader more positive attitude.  If you lose on any particular day, you call it charity after all you are the winner long term hence your legendary luck and skills to profit overall long term.  Getting triggered and reacting without thought should be a phenomena that occurs less and less as you gain experience and become calmer under stress and games which refuse to ever go your way.   Just seems right to me that time paid, prior games all count for something win or loss.