The reason we can profit more than other people is I have bootleg power through txu energy. I pay 75 month for unlimited energy use through someone that works there  Let me know if your interested The energy cost of Avalon rig is negligible compared to GPU. I would rather pay for the electricity. |
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ASIC miner price will stabilise when the market is saturated with the ASIC miner. By that time, there will be no GPU left except those on free electricity. The price of the ASIC miner depends on the difficulty level and BTC price at that time.
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I mine both BTC (40%) and LTC (60%). I think LTC value would rise faster than BTC in the future due to its faster confirmation. I could mine BTC now and change it to LTC, but I do not want to involve exchange at the moment.
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Bitcoin is my first and only investment. I've never understood stocks enough to put money in them but with bitcoin I genuinely believe in it. Which has compelled me to invest in it.
It is very dangerous to invest just because you believe in it. But its your way of investment. |
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IMO the problem is defation/inflation. In my country we have around 25% inflation and that makes us take an easy decision:
- Buy goods in twelve payments without interest using credit cards or,
- buy goods in one payment using bitcoins
Fiat currencies will be most of the time the chosen ones.
Shop will accept (like) BTC in 12 instalments as it is deflationary. |
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Asic chips are entering the arena...
Yep, and this is only the beginning. Agreed. |
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There is a built in incentive to keep mining.
Let's say mining costs rise above profitability. Any slowing in production this causes means a relative increase in demand. That triggers an increase in BTC prices and makes mining profitable again.
There are scenarios where this doesn't work. But as long as the demand is there it will be met.
Your logic is flawed. Mining has no relation to bitcoin price at all. Bitcoin production is stable no matter how many people mine. That is the point of the variable difficulty. The fact that you used the word logic but misused the word relation (as in correlation) means your reasoning is flawed. What you probably meant was mining has no causation to BTC price. Most every long term forum member would agree there is a correlation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficientThe BTC is not stable no matter how many people mine (production yes, price no). That is a fallacy. If just one person mined with an ASIC back in 2009 while everybody else was on CPUs, that one person would have about 11 million coins now and they would be worthless. The value of the coin is determined by both miners and the people who accept the coins. You think BTC would be worth $130USD if just 20 people were mining   I agree. The more people own BTC, the more valuable it is. |
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I would use the reference cards for easy voltage change.
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Price stability is the key to the success of BTC. The slow increase of value is acceptable.
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Without overvolt, my 5970 run at 780/150.
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I can connect two X1 risers, no problem. If I connect three to extend the length further, there are artefacts on screen.
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I am wondering if anyone who has received and set up one of the ASICminer USB mining rigs has any stats to run through a profitability calculator. I am aware the initial price paid is a big driver and my guess is people paying $300+ on eBay won't be seeing breakeven for some time, but I'm curious about the variable cost side of things.
If it is USB, then it should be below 5W, which is 5V*1A. |
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I don't think that it will be profitable once the majority of GPU owners do it, trying to squeeze the last juice from their cards. The switch-over to (mainly) LTC will happen fast and the difficulty will sky-rocket. As more miners have LTC for sale, converting to BTC, LTC price will go further down. No, I have a gloomy outlook on alt-coin GPU mining after ASICs. Time will tell. Disclaimer: I still CPU-mine LTC @ 150kh/s spread over 4 CPUs, with a top-tier i7 standing for 82kh/s When BTC GPU miners migrate to LTC, the LTC difficulty will rise. For example, at present LTC hash power is about 20GH/s. If the GPU hash of 40T in BTC change to 40GH/s of LTC, then the LTC difficulty will triple. But after that, the increase will be slow due to slow increase of new GPU. That is different from BTC dramatic difficulty rise due to flood of ASIC. I reckon the end of year LTC will be less than 5 times of present value, which will be 3,000. |
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By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month. 35% - wow, I didn't know it was that high. Sounds like if you're going to bet on the price going up, you're much better off just straight up buying bitcoins off an exchange than mining them yourself. The difficulty level was 8.9M when I started mining on 25 April. It is 12M now. That is an increase of 34% in a month. With more and more ASIC coming to market, I think 35% per month is a reasonable estimate. Mining revenue is about twice of my electricity cost. If I have the existing hardware, I will just mine until the revenue is the same as my electricity cost. It is still cheaper than buying BTC directly. |
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I did some calculation about using outdated HD 5850 for mining. If I put 6 of these ($120 each) in a rig, then the hardware breakeven time is 171 days in today's BTC price. The electricity price is $0.20/kWH. The difficulty level will rise, so might be the BTC price.
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By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month. |
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I did some calculation today about the break even time for BTC mining. The break even time is 6 month if I buy old 5850 cards and the difficulty stays at 14M. I use that constant difficulty because I think the BTC price will rise with difficulty level. If it does not rise, then break even time is infinity and will make a loss.
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Anyone mine LTC and get the same result?
My 5970 works on BTC, but not on LTC. |
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I can't seem to find where on newegg they are going for $120 (7850) can you please link me?
Also thanks for the reply. I currently am on a very strict budget so I thought the 5850's woul be good as with two of them I may get 700 KH/S for around $200 is this good or?
I think 5850 is good value for BTC mining. It is similar in performance to 6950, but is much cheaper. But when we have to move to LTC mining at the end of the day due to ASIC, then 6950 is better because it has 2GB memory. My 5850 has hash power of 367 MH/ (928/170, core/memory) compared to 7950's 600 MH/s. The cost of 5850 is $100, while 7950 is $300. But you need two PCIE slots to accommodate two 5850. For BTC mining, it draws much less energy proportionally to 7950 as it has just 1 GB memory instead of 3 GB. |
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I use two cgminer, one for BTC (-d 0), the other for LTC (-d 1,-d 2) .
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