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1281  Economy / Speculation / Re: wow, bitcoin's astro birth chart is full on! on: February 12, 2014, 06:15:27 AM
Are you making this stuff up on the spot? Wink

Quote
http://www.star4cast.com/index2f.asp?page=horoscope.asp

see: Capricorn's daily for today

Monthly outlook
Now you're through your birthday month you'll be settling down to the proper business of the year ahead, knocking your finances into shape. You'll be spending happily as well but since your ambitious and determined push to stay on top of your situation will be paying dividends you'll deserve the odd treat. One friendship may hit a sticky, rather chilly patch so try not to get too critical or negative. Wait till you're clearer about the reasons for the tensions before making any firm decisions. Your dynamic approach will waken everyone up but there are those who may not appreciate being bossed around so tone down your demands if you can. In the final days your feet will hardly hit the deck since you'll be running fast. Some confusion is likely with Neptune around so double check all messages and try to be clear in what you say.


Cheesy


Of course I wasn't serious about making stuff up on the spot.

This is really interesting, first bolded part - maybe the Gox friendship?

The second bolded part reinforces my belief that we're going to have a crazy half-month ahead of us.

well, we shook off quite a bit of bearish pressure since December (damn, I forgot all the good news we had since, too). Since gmaxwell released an update yesterday with a fix, I could expect a nice correction
1282  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much is difficulty related to price? Interesting Picture on: February 12, 2014, 04:53:19 AM
you guys are so naive it upsets me. shows how much you don't understand about mining economics

price, determined by some intersection of supply and demand

high difficulty translates into
1) less coins rewarded per miner (greater distribution)
2) necessitates a higher price for them to break even on their investment (greater accumulation)
3) fiat that would've entered the mining space is now likelier to be spent buying bitcoins instead
4) restored equilibrium

and don't tell me that miners will panic or that they get coins for extremely cheap anyways because of mining. almost by definition they are in the long game, and anyways, the mining space is now becoming only viable for manufacturers

at the very least, increasing difficulty is a positive factor upon price to some degree. it might be lagged though
1283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2014, 03:55:48 AM
I have an aversion against dogmatic and dishonest people. It culminates in outbursts of the opposite order sometimes, even though I like Bitcoin.

So, you call Bitcoin shit because of a bug that affects appearance, not function?

Don't you think that's a bit of a dishonest proposition?
It just amazes me how it affects all major exchanges. Actually didn't expect that. So yes, from a practical world view, I would say that something has gone wrong that this was not noticed before by any of them.

It amazes you? From my experience, I expect the exchanges to do as little as possible to continue to function. Again, this has everything to do with the exchanges, not Bitcoin.

The day we have a robustdecentralized Bitcoin exchange...

fixed that for you Wink

The MasterProtocol has one due to be released into the wild by March 15 and evaluated by the 31st

the test build seems to be down at the moment though
http://mastercoin-explorer.com/order_books
1284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just sold my bitcoin... on: February 12, 2014, 03:52:34 AM
a trend is a trend til it's broken :p

and in semi-related news
We already block most forms which can be blocked, this was a change in bitcoin 0.8 (that was, in fact, causing withdraws delays for mtgox because they produced transactions with invalid encoding).

The recent flood of transactions use a pushdata change. A patch to block it was written in September 2013, but didn't make it into the codebase until today. If your node is running git bitcoin, just update and you'll have it.


1285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something is wrong. We cannot just gloss over the $100 sell on: February 12, 2014, 03:29:21 AM
you can't destroy bitcoin by just selling it to death. the selling has to have some substantial fundamental reason behind it in order to do so

Exploiting a vulnerability in bitcoin's design while stealing bitcoins, causing exchanges to shut down transfers would be a pretty good time to dump bitcoins on the market if you wanted to affect the useful stability of the commodity.  At the very least it spawns "Major bitcoin exchange shuts down" headlines and makes people who want to conduct business and trade using bitcoin wonder if they can handle the massive daily swings and risk of losing their money.

welcome to Bitcoin lol
1286  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why have we not discouraged relaying of malleated transactions? on: February 12, 2014, 03:24:20 AM
wonderful. thank you Mr. Maxwell!
1287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2014, 03:03:44 AM
We already block most forms which can be blocked, this was a change in bitcoin 0.8 (that was, in fact, causing withdraws delays for mtgox because they produced transactions with invalid encoding).

The recent flood of transactions use a pushdata change. A patch to block it was written in September 2013, but didn't make it into the codebase until today. If your node is running git bitcoin, just update and you'll have it.


1288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something is wrong. We cannot just gloss over the $100 sell on: February 12, 2014, 02:56:10 AM
My theory: the current DDoS of bitcoin is done to destroy bitcoin, not to profit from it.  Maybe it's an entity that wants to destroy competition (a government), or someone who is jealous they missed the bitcoin billionaire boat and wants revenge.

MtGox et al still haven't declared how many bitcoins have been stolen using the DDoS.  They simply don't know at this point.  If I was trying to destroy bitcoin I would take some of my plundered goods and dump them on an exchange and see what happens.  Maybe I would spark a mass sell off and crash that helped me in my anti bitcoin goal?

Was it a whale panicking and dumping their load all at once?  Unlikely.  The market was pretty stable right before the flash crash.  It's not like a speculator was sitting there looking at their millions disappear into the ether and wanting to salvage something, anything, from the situation before the value crashed to zero.

you can't destroy bitcoin by just selling it to death. the selling has to have some substantial fundamental reason behind it in order to do so
1289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2014, 02:28:32 AM
Andreas is de facto the voice of Bitcoin right now.

And the fact that he and the foundation are at such odds speaks volumes about how in touch the foundation is with the Bitcoin community as a whole these days.

i was hoping Matonis would've helped them out more
1290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculation Bet: Bitcoin will hit $600 (non-gox price) by 3-22-14 on: February 12, 2014, 02:14:41 AM
my exchange doesn't let me cut through the orderbook for any specific order. If the price is 900 and I set an ask at 600, it'd get sold at $900

the seller doesn't set the price he wants to sell it for?? i guess it depends on volume.  if there's bids for $900, and you list for $600 it would sell at $900.

yes this is what I mean
1291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2014, 01:41:44 AM

"may impose"

this is more interesting to me

http://www.coindesk.com/kazakhstans-central-bank-ban-bitcoin-protect-bankers/


i think we're winning
1292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just sold my bitcoin... on: February 12, 2014, 01:30:54 AM
wow, and with that, the picture is in a CHART
1293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Coinbase will be next to halt withdrawals by Friday.. on: February 12, 2014, 01:18:18 AM
Bitcoinsteve did call it going to $100 on sunday and everyone laughed at him... And then we all know what happened on BTCe...


That's a pretty spot on prediction, I'd like to see anyone else try to beat it.  
Ok, ATH in march 2014 Kiss

just for fun,
for the public record my money is on ATH in may Smiley i'll dig this up later when it happens[/steve]
1294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just sold my bitcoin... on: February 12, 2014, 01:14:49 AM
Lock in profits in what currency? Yeah, you made few more monopoly bucks and meanwhile lost the only real money you had.

I'll take USD over BTC any day of the week.   In fact, the only use I have for BTC is as a speculative tool to grow my USD.    

+1
Last time I checked USD didn't lose 40% since December like bitcoin did.
ya you're right, USD loses 3-12% in real value and some thousands % relative to bitcoin per annum :p

I just use bitcoin as my savings account and disregard current price. if i need something i sell bitcoin into my checking account to buy it. no way will my spending ever outpace Bitcoin appreciation this way. As a Bitcoin investor, I hate selling and the process keeps my material wants in check Smiley
1295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Despite all the hacking attacks, FUD, negative articles etc. Bitcoin is on: February 12, 2014, 01:08:18 AM

Come on, I did start with a 'What If'.
true, my apologies.
Quote


Bitcoin now seems to be entering a stage of high uncertainty, during a clear bear phase of the market. With this in mind, I am preparing myself to accept that perhaps my subconscious mind is smarter than my conscious mind. I am abandoning any attempts at deploying my TA 101 skills to turn a buck on Bitcoin, such as playing the rather obvious $380 support. I shall now be sitting right out on the sidelines either until Bitcoin proves it has overcome the recent technological uncertainties and most importantly, confirms that the bottom is in and the trend is reversing; or until some of my outrageously low buy-in levels have been triggered on Bitstamp due to everyone's worst fears coming to be realised, and Bitcoin finding itself standing at death's door.

Neuroscientifically speaking, your subconscious will come up with a solution before your conscious one will finish thinking. You are probably correct in trusting your intuition. At the same time though, your subconscious is a reflection of the primal, core emotional being. It understands concepts in symbols. I don't know what your experience and history with Bitcoin is (are?) though, or investing in general. Some traders by trade that have entered Bitcoin see it markedly different than "investors" do. Sometimes they miss a few fundamental ideas such as the power of anti-fragility, they emphasize on speculation and not the philosophy. that's perfectly fine, we need that. investors tend to disregard short-term non-black swan events. You just have to know thyself.

Quote
  • I miss the bottom and some good volatile trading opportunities in between, but get in as trend reversal is confirmed (most likely)
  • Panic and fear overcomes market and Bitcoin crashes to the point of death or novelty posterity significance, in which case I lose all my chips (entirely possible)
  • Panic and fear overcomes market and Bitcoin crashes to the point of death, at which point big Wall St money swoops in and buys it up at pennies on the dollar, in which case I cash in big time...providing my buy-ins are allowed to be triggered by the corrupt system, and/or Bitstamp doesn't go the same way as many Bitcoin exchanges before it (stranger things will have happened)
or
  • panic and fear overcome the market when bulls capitulate, waiting bears buy in, and you get your first point
they say bitcoin is a good investment because it has binary outcomes, yeah, but your second two points don't make sense to me. Panic and fear do not cause Bitcoin to "crash to death". A fundamental and irreparable point of failure will cause bitcoin to "crash to death". We don't have that. The bears that are waiting, and trust me, they're there on the sidelines and will be the source of the impetus up when the trend is confirmed to reverse, will prevent those last two scenarios. so dreary mat!!
1296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just sold my bitcoin... on: February 12, 2014, 12:47:32 AM
Don't listen to the echo chamber; no one has ever gone broke by locking in profits.

probably greatest line of advice this year

Lock in profits in what currency? Yeah, you made few more monopoly bucks and meanwhile lost the only real money you had.

well, the last position I closed I did by paying off the monopoly money margin and keeping the remainder Smiley
1297  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 12, 2014, 12:12:53 AM
it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp?
1298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just sold my bitcoin... on: February 12, 2014, 12:11:43 AM
Don't listen to the echo chamber; no one has ever gone broke by locking in profits.

probably greatest line of advice this year
1299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just sold my bitcoin... on: February 12, 2014, 12:06:44 AM
Shit this is that classic thread that indicates a floor has been hit. i was really hoping for cheaper coins.

 Grin  You read my mind!  

The only problem I have is that I have no fiat left to buy more coins.  

only had 5 coins fill at 635 Sad((((
1300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Despite all the hacking attacks, FUD, negative articles etc. Bitcoin is on: February 12, 2014, 12:04:45 AM
you speak with such a definiteness mat  Cheesy
you seem so sure [/socratic quip]
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