The other thing is while you are right that they had to get the coins sometime and somewhere, that demand theoretically drove the price up, if that demand is lost (by spending and not buying again) how can the net gain , without new investors, be positive?
"Demand" is a complex concept. In ordinary language we use the word to refer to many things. But the underlying system has well-defined characteristics. There is a finite resource: The integral of holdings over time. This 2d space is denominated in btc-seconds. Every square unit is always allocated in some way. If you require a rectangle of this plane, then you are adding demand. It doesn't matter whether the rectangle is vertically oriented (large amount, short time) or horizontally oriented (small amount, large time). What does matter is whether the demand (the regions of the plane which are desired to allocate) overlaps. Overlapping demands drive the price up until the demand regions no longer overlap. Any BTC in the air in bitpay constitute a very long shallow slice of this rectangular space. I simply love this analogy. |
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(Almost) 4k coins volume in last 24h. On Stamp. On a Tuesday.
Are we sliding into oblivion?
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I'm tempted to delete some posts, just in case this one does not fit page 6666  |
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Looking at both sides in the eternal dilemma: if the common sentiment is that we all are waiting for a drop on Chinese news, the drop might not happen at all.
OTOH: there is about one new r/bitcoin subscriber every half hour today, which is not good enough. Also Google Trends index for "bitcoin" is at the lowest in its 90 days and still trending down, with the two biggest countries being Cyprus (I assume because NeoBee fuckup) and Estonia (I assume because of rpietila's purchase in the local newspapers).
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We hold these truths to be self-evident, that not all money systems are created equal, and that bitcoin will rise forcefully from it current level which is below the bottom.
While I am OK with the first part, the "current level is below the bottom" part is inherently incorrect. |
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Long term downtrend resistance line meeting recent horizontal ghost support line at 429+ in a few days. While the volume stays paper thin.
No one is in the street, everyone is waiting, cowboys gonna duel. Up or down, who knows.
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So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
Why 370? |
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The sentiment is very bad on Bitcoin but the same people that tell you they think it is going down are keeping ton of cash on the exchanges; that makes me very bullish
How do you know about cash on exchanges? Secret powers. He clearly knows the owners of exchanges personally and has access to privileged information. It is important to say it here because the whole market is heavily influenced by what we say on the wall observer thread. |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out: 1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact) 2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want) 3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price. 4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens. 5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting. |
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Are there any news out or did the quest for cheaper coins just put us in full panic mode?
Breaking news: failed breakout and 4385 volume. Now here is John with sports. 'Twas that close this time...  ... But again, on such unimpressive volume. |
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Are there any news out or did the quest for cheaper coins just put us in full panic mode?
It has to be said that Sunday mornings are traditionally the most bearish part of the weekend. Who knows. Hungovers, weekend manipulators, no new fiat... |
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But why exactly did the Chinese exchanges pull out of the bitcoin summit, and what is the real chance they shutdown without notice in the next days?
Shutdown without notice is not that high I think, the chance of a shutdown notice being published is very likely imo. With a deadline or two, of course! The latest rumor is shutdown before 30 June Another deadline would look as if the Chinese govt doesn't really want to, or is unable to. |
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But why exactly did the Chinese exchanges pull out of the bitcoin summit, and what is the real chance they shutdown without notice in the next days?
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Like the coins that you allegedly lost by taking an unsecured laptop to an sauna party, where it got stolen.
Source? Not sure if your intention is to troll the troll, but to be fair I read that post of yours too last year. |
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While the price may certainly dip below $400 or even $300, it will be short lived. There is no way in a year from now people will be buying Bitcoins for just a couple of hundred dollars. If anything, I'd expect another mania to develop over a complete price crash.
You don't provide a graph or at least one explanation behind your reasoning. Makes it look like you're pulling numbers out of your arse. |
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Dont expect that the whales who bought at 900+ will be selling soon
By now it's about squeezing the coins out of the hodlers that have too many of them, independently from the price they bought at. Let me expand. If coins are a very high percent of your net worth, you are more likely to capitulate than others. Especially if your cash flow is not that great (or negative) compared to the actual coins' worth. The capitulation process is a form of wealth redistribution which might be healthy for btc in the long term. The grinding will stop when either the btc economy will be big enough to sustain the price, or the new wave of speculator/buyers will neutralize the selling pressure. Until then, expect many bull traps, likely caused by early investors trying to catch the bottoms - and losing their fortune in the process. |
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w'ell probably be at or around $70 by the end of the month. SELL SELL SELL
Nope. Not so low and not that fast. |
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Based on this article, this unprecedented micro-action of the PBOC should had made the banks run scared to close the accounts, but there are still some allowing bitcoin accounts.
I don't get this. Price discussion aside, I almost have the impression that Chinese banks don't give much of a shit about what PBOC says in the matter. Makes me wonder whether the scary Chinese Govt has also weakened its control over its own citizens. |
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Going south.  No early retirement for me this year... maybe never. |
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