windjc
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May 11, 2014, 09:52:42 AM |
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Why the hell is the market going down? I thought it was all trains and moons?!
Where is Chessnut? I want an explanation immediately.
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BitAddict
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Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
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May 11, 2014, 09:55:45 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out: 1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact) 2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want) 3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price. 4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens. 5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting. I totally agree. |
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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May 11, 2014, 10:00:52 AM |
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Davyd05
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May 11, 2014, 10:01:05 AM |
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Why the hell is the market going down? I thought it was all trains and moons?!
Where is Chessnut? I want an explanation immediately.
Keep shorting what else is there for you to do? I haven't been paying attention so I'm not sure if Chessnut is leveraged long..but I doubt he' gives a fuck  about a $14 swing as the Chinese go to sleep following a deadline that was met with no announcements or actions. |
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eiskalt
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May 11, 2014, 10:01:24 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out:
(...)
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.
Hmm, "Silk Road bust" happend weeks after reversal of the downtrend. It was a shakeout. Now we are still in a downtrend, which I would expect to go on for at least another 3 to 4 weeks. |
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TERA
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May 11, 2014, 10:01:30 AM |
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lol at the people who were posting their game-plans of how we were breaking out to $600 and then 2 weeks later we'd be at $800 and then 2 weeks later we'd be at $1,000
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akujin
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May 11, 2014, 10:01:53 AM |
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TERA
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May 11, 2014, 10:03:02 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out:
(...)
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.
Hmm, "Silk Road bust" happend weeks after reversal of the downtrend. It was a shakeout. Now we are still in a downtrend, which I would expect to go on for at least another 3 to 4 weeks. The recovery from the silk road bust was actually the start of when China started buying. Who knows what would have happened without China. |
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klee
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Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
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May 11, 2014, 10:04:19 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out: 1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact) 2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want) 3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price. 4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens. 5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting. I totally agree. Hehe, I am waiting my orders (<=380$) to be filled!! |
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klee
Legendary
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Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
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May 11, 2014, 10:05:04 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out:
(...)
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.
Hmm, "Silk Road bust" happend weeks after reversal of the downtrend. It was a shakeout. Now we are still in a downtrend, which I would expect to go on for at least another 3 to 4 weeks. The recovery from the silk road bust was actually the start of when China started buying. Who knows what would have happened without China. True |
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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May 11, 2014, 10:05:22 AM |
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Why the hell is the market going down? I thought it was all trains and moons?!
Where is Chessnut? I want an explanation immediately.
Keep shorting what else is there for you to do? I haven't been paying attention so I'm not sure if Chessnut is leveraged long..but I doubt he' gives a fuck about a $14 swing as the Chinese go to sleep following a deadline that was met with no announcements or actions. No, but what the bulls should be concerned about is the fact that this latest short rally didn't even get as high as the last short rally and it died on very low volume. So again, I ask. How do we rally with people buying coins? |
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Davyd05
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May 11, 2014, 10:07:37 AM |
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lol at the people who were posting their game-plans of how we were breaking out to $600 and then 2 weeks later we'd be at $800 and then 2 weeks later we'd be at $1,000
It is a fine balance between you posting the lovely ms paint job of the trend repeating itself until we drop into the ...the volume. |
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mmitech
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
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May 11, 2014, 10:10:01 AM |
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lol at the people who were posting their game-plans of how we were breaking out to $600 and then 2 weeks later we'd be at $800 and then 2 weeks later we'd be at $1,000
it will still happen regardless what is happening in china, this was counted in many times... |
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akujin
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May 11, 2014, 10:10:12 AM |
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eiskalt
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May 11, 2014, 10:13:09 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out:
(...)
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.
Hmm, "Silk Road bust" happend weeks after reversal of the downtrend. It was a shakeout. Now we are still in a downtrend, which I would expect to go on for at least another 3 to 4 weeks. The recovery from the silk road bust was actually the start of when China started buying. Who knows what would have happened without China. Mtgox would have pushed the price to around1000$ ? Every other exchange would have been following mtgox. |
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klee
Legendary
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Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
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May 11, 2014, 10:14:59 AM |
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ok so let me guess how this might play out:
(...)
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.
Hmm, "Silk Road bust" happend weeks after reversal of the downtrend. It was a shakeout. Now we are still in a downtrend, which I would expect to go on for at least another 3 to 4 weeks. The recovery from the silk road bust was actually the start of when China started buying. Who knows what would have happened without China. Mtgox would have pushed the price to around1000$ ? Every other exchange would have been following mtgox. That's what BTCChina was doing anyway... |
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Davyd05
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May 11, 2014, 10:19:11 AM |
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Why the hell is the market going down? I thought it was all trains and moons?!
Where is Chessnut? I want an explanation immediately.
Keep shorting what else is there for you to do? I haven't been paying attention so I'm not sure if Chessnut is leveraged long..but I doubt he' gives a fuck about a $14 swing as the Chinese go to sleep following a deadline that was met with no announcements or actions. No, but what the bulls should be concerned about is the fact that this latest short rally didn't even get as high as the last short rally and it died on very low volume. So again, I ask. How do we rally with people buying coins?Perhaps as the fear continues to disperse and other things becoming clearer. Maybe money is on its way to exchange in the forms of wires for Monday. Maybe we'll see a blanket ban from PBoC on Monday... **see you edited bear to bull being concerned. however.. you explained how we rally..by people buying bitcoin. I would expect the rush to build as people become more and more reluctant to short the market and wait for re-entry signs ...however we all make that call on our own. |
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TERA
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May 11, 2014, 10:21:04 AM |
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During the rally was weird - it seemed like mtgox, bitstamp, and btcchina were all taking turns being leader at times. Bitstamp was more of a leader very early on, and mtgox was a leader during the 'crashes'/corrections.
Sometimes all three exchanges would get in a feedback loop of following eachother's movements, causing the same move to repeat more than once.
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ZephramC
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May 11, 2014, 10:22:07 AM |
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So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
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boumalo
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Activity: 1890
Merit: 1018
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May 11, 2014, 10:25:14 AM |
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Bumpin up against that $460,-.
Once we break it, we can post train and moon pics.
I can feel all the fiat on the exchanges waiting to buy, it may arrive when we don't except it anymore  Bitstamp is like... 'lol what should we do about all this fiat? I guess post some vague tweets about bitcoin going to the moon' Yes, I'm not on Bitstamp but on Kraken, but I can see my few fiat waiting on the ground ! The sentiment is very bad on Bitcoin but the same people that tell you they think it is going down are keeping ton of cash on the exchanges; that makes me very bullish |
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