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1521  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: August 23, 2023, 11:46:00 PM
Ok once again Im wrong, I did sense we could seriously break the range in the last few days of this month.  The flush out towards 25k or lower still did not occur, it failed.  Like an elastic band, you stretch in a direction it didnt break it will rebound us upwards is my expectation.  A failed move will result inversely bullish is something Ive heard said a few times by traders of great experience and I believe its true myself.  Hence I held off betting more on the lower price and watched the move down, it has failed to catch.   We are back in the prior range, more boring but there it is.
  So bets close shortly, thats the last chance to place I think for August.   I'll use up my spins but Im not with great expectation currently (decent positive volume today eclipses the flush attempt down, negates it perhaps), its more wait and see; I do prefer when we jump the tracks and make a new path but not right now I guess.

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I think we aren't going to get the max value (50) from the WOF spins.     The odds are pretty good for less than 25k price range.

They were great actually, it was off the radar and the ideal scenario of occurring just before a lock in.  However it was a failed move so yep agreed on no value max out at this moment in any predictable occurance.
1522  Economy / Speculation / Re: what a surprise dip on: August 22, 2023, 11:59:21 PM
I was just watching pricing this evening with 15 minute bars, there was an attempt downwards.   Very fast measure really, even a 50 moving average is only half a day of pricing.  BTC looked good for a fall with some volume but its relative and doesnt matter if wider time frames discount the local or short term effect.  Im not sure which but its recovered well, the main point I would make on that is a failed move is bullish.  Failure to sell, a rebound and trade back above the sell price could do better then previous because it discounts sellers and knocks them out of the picture for that time, it could build higher.  Lets see if it can do anything different now.
   I was just going to put on a bet for a lower price to month end but I'm interested now in this current developing during Asian open trading hours.  Each part of the globe has its own dynamic for BTC sentiment imo

Current pricing as of this post 26029 & is past 12hr average and challenging the average price for last couple days.   Lets see if BTC can expand the post-sell languishing recent range at all.
1523  Economy / Speculation / Challenging the lows, 25.5k and lower possible break here on: August 22, 2023, 09:44:59 PM
Wondering what peoples sentiment for 2023 is right now, negative, neutral sideways or still aspiring higher.


I see the price challenging the lows of last week here, we achieved 24k as a low but the majority of the price action remained above 25.5k.  That resolution in the sell was some slight positive, a sell off can reverse but it appears to be failing in that resolve right now.
  Right this moment we are trading and threatening a wider move.     How do we finish 2023 if this move isnt finished with just resolving purely back to March prices.



Here is the price action on 15m bars in last few hours, this does appear some attempt lower.   I think we observed this before also, main markets close negative sentiment (repeatedly)and after hours approaching the Asia open around midnight forum hours the price becomes weakened.  Failing to hold here does make me think of 25k or lower could be the wider range required to establish strength.

I've forgotten how to do a poll, maybe its a mod only thing now.  But I'm wondering, Going forward into the 2023 finishing price action and sentiment & using 25k as a pivot:

BTC
  • Positive
  • Neutral
  • Negative



[Quick follow up chart.   Lets see it resolve higher and prove me wrong, of course Im fine with being wrong lol.   I do think we have weakness just look at the volume but never look at any wider picture just once, its worth discussion imo ]
1524  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: August 21, 2023, 11:51:46 PM
you have more probability of getting into a car accident driving 15 km to buy a lottery ticket than winning the lottery you are buying the ticket for.
crazy but simple math

Surprising but true, I've heard of odds like that even more extreme.  A newly qualified teenage driver is more likely to experience a serious car accident then the same age serving soldier suffering serious injury in an active war zone.   How that is possible to be true is somehow we drastically under rate every day risks and probability because they are familiar to us.  Another variation is the trip to the airport via car is the most dangerous part of flying abroad etc.
1525  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: August 21, 2023, 04:53:41 PM
Its not just a gesture its a public affirmation that winning is not just possible but probable every day for a website that size the roll is occurring in the biggest win every day.   Just from the sheer number of spins by the distributed user base around the world.  I would guess the vast majority of users are quite casual and also not a member of this forum and definitely not someone who posts often.
   Ive never got that free roll grand prize despite many tries but it will be rare I accept.  I got close but never precisely enough for the best prize.     Odds of greater then 10k to 1 I would equate to throwing a playing card from one end of a large room to the other and landing it within the closed grip of a bulldog clip, even with skill I reckon thats rare due to random path of flight.
1526  Economy / Economics / Re: Am I a bad person if I manage to avoid taxes? (Hypothetical question) on: August 21, 2023, 03:30:51 PM
The ideal tax regime is that companies pay taxes, with their 6 year business cycle and the ability to carry over losses over multiple years to cover profits from another year.  It makes alot more sense to tax a company with limited liability and better access to credit then people who may struggle under the burden of overly large government regimes.  Inflation is destructive no doubt about it, thats a tax and all the other kind of taxes more regularly levied are also some impediment to business.  Sales tax discourages retail in that particular state and the very rich quite obviously do shop abroad for their most expensive goods, where as the poorest workers of any country are bound to pay their full share of tax always.
  There is no perfect system but the idea is a company pays for its access to an economy and its population and in turn the people are still paying a section of tax every time they use that company.  Some of the product cost is a section of that tax paid to the country all 3 entities operate in, its far fairer imo.
  The consequences of this idea are strong borders, you protect who has free access and sale of goods.  That means instead of chasing down people for tax you have the task of regulating the borders and goods, this is the traditional goods and excise taxation regime.  Definitely possible but rare in the modern day for some reason, where as rich people with access to multiple countries can easily defer any tax due and thats the history of how some are rich and stay that way going back a century or more of the modern system of democracy and capitalism.
1527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will $25,000 give this time? on: August 21, 2023, 11:36:27 AM
Interesting thing is that a year ago we were right here anyway.   The difference in tone this time is we are viewing thar area from above, having it as support where it was a ceiling a year before.  I think its good support so not right now, in wider terms I'd say we repeat ourselves and keep failing to test the higher prices even when positive for days, a week or more.  Overall it has been the case we move sideways more then up and thats the label for the whole year, more then any proper fight, progression or even race but we are mud fighting in a pit in a messy way falling over all the time.
1528  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023 on: August 21, 2023, 10:27:33 AM
Probably best result for the good of the game still developing that England doesn't win this time.   Has to be a chance any team at all can win it in potential, I feel sorry for the US team coach not sure its entirely their fault and enough reason that they should resign but no doubt it alleviates pressure from the team and they move forward for the next cycle.

Quote
noticed the trophy?
Probably looks alot more bling in person but yea the shape overall I dont especially like.    Hope its not forever, they can revise it Tongue
1529  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: August 20, 2023, 11:59:46 PM
Odds for Trump should be way against him for a variety of reasons, seems fair to him so currently its nice value given for the Biden bet.  Even if we ignore any court cases, Im not legal minded but say they are all for show and suspicion or allegations are not nearly near proof enough for actual convictions.   Hence the motivations to prosecute could be described as politically powered, its a gain from the kudos of bringing the case even if they waste their time doing so in theory as it was never going to be enough.
   So even with all the legal sides dismissed its still a case of lacking the college vote that won the first surprise win back in 2016, eight years later this whole concept is threadbare and worn.  For the very same reasons many candidates try but do not return again there isnt the votes to win on or enough reason to believe so; if people doubt your ability to win then it can become self fulfilling.
   Simple take will always be the economy, if 2020 had been a normal year we might not be here now as I dont think Biden would try at this juncture if not already president.
1530  Other / Off-topic / Re: Keeping your gambling habit a secret. on: August 20, 2023, 11:41:05 PM
Not sure about secret but I would refrain from boasting especially.  To tell or discuss with others who either bet regularly or might choose to if they feel like is normal.  Its probably part of why betting is becoming so popular via sports betting or similar games where people play anyway and a few will bet on the outcome.   I dont see it needs to be a secret, be sensible with your money only spend the spare left over after paying your bills, do that and you are doing nothing wrong imo.
1531  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: As a gambler do you have a potential winning amount limit? on: August 20, 2023, 11:26:46 PM
OP is questioning reliance on BTC for some kind of income however irregular.  People bet to boost or enhance a budget in some way.   I never would lean on this method but in very simple terms eg.  you only have half the new car purchase value, you go bet it all on Roulette wheel red.   If you win you double and get the money to buy the car immediately and if you lose you are walking for another year till finding a more boring way to get the money.   Personally I would not do this, I've walked too many times and its meaning I waste time when I could be working and gaining towards whatever objective I aim for.     Im boring I dont do this but I guess some do, in my example I just buy a cheaper car meanwhile and only bet much smaller amounts a game not changing my life choices or options.
1532  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Crash may take bitcoin to 1M dollar on: August 20, 2023, 11:11:43 PM
US Dollar index spiked in 2008 around that time before the effects of QE bought in a easing effect that has likely weakened the currency standard forever.  Same with recent moves, despite an attempt to reverse and compensate its still likely going to lower paper value of the currency.  They only want that to occur in an orderly way rather then disorderly spiking but its true anyway that we see the market go to both extremes up and down which is disruptive and destructive to the flow of business especially across borders.   Many governments go to great effects to stay in line with dollar moves, weakening their currency if possible to avoid any strength vs dollar and discouragement to trade done between their countries.
    I do generally disagree that weak dollar will not be a magic recipe for higher BTC (destructive moves in any asset are not the best hope to keep), probably also it means bad markets and lower BTC eventually maybe BTC does find a better hold on value so the price especially in a nominal way does rise.  Nothing will be easy about it as we are seeing currently, yet more selling and doubts etc.
1533  Economy / Speculation / Re: $30000 is becoming the resistant price on: August 20, 2023, 10:03:02 PM
Its already gone up from the low, we hit a similar price now to the June low.   What could be bearish if we didnt repeat  upwards but for now we just repeated the top and bottom of the range.   Many had hoped for more of a positive trend to hold hence 30k becomes old news and maybe support instead its remained as it was despite that bit of good news the wider market doesnt care especially for now and wants to test the selling prices.  
  On some time frame or another its always repeating itself, we have to decide when the repeat is better then previous.  This time the low was a bit higher then last, some people sold the higher prices and put their buys in that point probably.   We can assume thats bullish to register low but as a higher low, but to me I would guess its far too slight.    Instead I fear that low is further repeated, instead of a reflex we slam into it and more strength is tested beyond just the speculators playing ping pong games on the order books for us all to observe.
1534  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will you cheat in gambling? on: August 19, 2023, 11:56:28 PM
Cheating would come under private contract law I think rather then immediately be applicable under theft or normal removal of produce without paying like from a retail store for example.   So its arguable possibly in a court of law which is what I've seen done previously, however the most immediate repercussion is the loss or impairment of the account.   Its obviously most commonly done with exploits, hardly appears to be a noble endeavor compared to those that just play the game under rules stated.
  The main fallacy with aiming to cheat in a game is that it obviously underlines the fact you only have an interest in money and nothing else about the game, very likely you wont gain enough of advantage to really make a profit without being caught and I'd call it a total loss as you have no enjoyment at all from the game.  Your personal objective is only to get around any real state of the game or its gameplay; most of the time incredibly frustrating and empty in returns to your efforts.
1535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can 1 satoshi be worth $1 in the future? on: August 19, 2023, 11:23:56 PM
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Of course we hope that one day the price of 1 satoshi is equivalent to $ 1,

I really dont because this would represent a negative for those poorer people of the world.  I want BTC to be as cheap and available as possible so we have every level of the economy represented, Im determined if BTC ever became an elite vehicle for its speculator gains perhaps that it will fail at that point.  Bitcoin should stay true to its definition and represent the bits more then the billions even if it does head to the higest values feasible Im fairly sure we do need the smallest transactions to always be possible.  This has been a feature of impairment previously like 2017 I paid over 30 dollars to move a balance which despite great gains at that time was quite sad in being required.
1536  Economy / Speculation / Re: what a surprise dip on: August 19, 2023, 03:56:35 PM
The alternative scenario to a rebound following the sell is that we fully explore the boundaries of the wider range of BTC price action in this last year time frame
https://ibb.co/pd5s4Y3


I prefer just the view of bar patterns but Im told to include the date for clarity so here with weekly bars is showing BTC back to when it was first challenged in this current area.  We are below the 200 week average right now so consider us 'submerged' in icy waters (with a negative wider environment) which has to be taken seriously as a bearish signal even if not immediately and absolutely true.
  19k as a target for downside must be considered as a repeat of prior action.   This could occur inside of a minute and resolve back upwards having failed as a trading move or we could slowly step down to that area with every day remaining in 2023, in a slow vice like movement.   I dont believe we are that bearish personally but for true accuracy we must consider all options then resolve which is most probable at every step.
1537  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gladiator the sequel on: August 19, 2023, 03:47:19 PM
Quote
Everything in camera frame will be ancient Rome

Laughable he has such a fantasy view of what the fight would be.  Its really unlikely to go ahead because they only have so much to lose as both are billionaires.  The people who do these fights are those up and coming, trying to make their fortune yes even if they might be millionaire fighters this is still nothing compared to a billionaire.
  Neither Zuck or Elon ever have to do a thing again to be rich every day the rest of this century, to go into a fight and maybe induce an injury which might give some kind of pain daily for the rest of your life makes little sense.   A young gun making a name for themselves they take this risk and its worth it; plus just fighting when you are older promotes more possibility of injuries, vision damage anything at all is possible and has little value to such high worth individuals.  Both players in this fight should just donate 10m each to a charity,  Elon loves nonsense and maybe its good publicity but I dont imagine their staff or insurance coverage, legal team etc.  would even allow the fight to complete.
1538  Economy / Economics / Re: All millions are from real estate. on: August 18, 2023, 11:59:07 PM
Real estate and owning property is only a way of trading on a commodity, it might be a profit making route sometimes but not always and its unique dynamic is demanding either a large amount of capital and/or alot of time to derive that benefit.   Property might the safest most assured way to store value over time, alot of alternatives have higher risk or simply decay but land does not in the main suffer this liability. The real way to make money is by business expansion whichever route that might be, its what you do that is really profitable not the sitting on commodities which is speculative.
1539  Economy / Speculation / Re: what a surprise dip on: August 18, 2023, 11:29:17 PM

Seems 25.8k is the level to hold for that optimistic target near term of 30k or similar.  Needs to start building now and even if we do achieve that scenario I think we can also repeat the current level again to confirm it in future but I agree its quite possible that we bounce back for the moment.  A week if a bit too soon, consider the volatility a bit like a roller coaster there is a limit before the market gets sick of all that motion back and forth Tongue   
  The selling wasnt too severe just sharp and immediate, we had gone sideways quite a long time so that was the resolution to that process.   Speculators drop out and without others to buy up their positions its natural for prices to move lower in order that buying is encouraged, even at a lower level thats a positive process overall
1540  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gamble Responsibly on: August 18, 2023, 10:31:53 PM
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excessive gambling
  Excessive time would be the main cost to the actual game playing and the rest of the consequences is about the money allocated.   Be sensible in the amounts, go for regular play over one off amounts, never promise yourself you will win as part of a budget to planning the potential money spent and its all likely to work more often then not even if not winning the bet or gamble.  Solve the problem of spending too much and you can draw a line under the gambling as a negative overall
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