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Who needs TA when you can easily predict the price just by looking at how much lag there is. Lag is the new starfish! LOL
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Lag? Everyone should probably start selling again all at the same time.
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 No. This is the calm before another storm. The supply of bitcoins for sale on MtGox has nearly quadrupled in the past 4 days. People want out, and the price will continue downward as a consequence. |
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http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/adam-smith-hates-bitcoin/Adam Smith Hates Bitcoin
There have been many good pieces written on the dubious economics of Bitcoin; I especially liked this one by Neil Irwin. One thing I haven’t seen emphasized, however, is the extent to which the whole concept of having to “mine” Bitcoins by expending real resources amounts to a drastic retrogression — a retrogression that Adam Smith would have scorned.
Smith actually wrote eloquently about the fundamental foolishness of relying on gold and silver currency, which — as he pointed out — serve only a symbolic function, yet absorbed real resources in their production, and why it would be smart to replace them with paper currency:
The gold and silver money which circulates in any country, and by means of which, the produce of its land and labour is annually circulated and distributed to the proper consumers, is, in the same manner as the ready money of the dealer, all dead stock. It is a very valuable part of the capital of the country, which produces nothing to the country. The judicious operations of banking, by substituting paper in the room of a great part of this gold and silver, enable the country to convert a great part of this dead stock into active and productive stock; into stock which produces something to the country. The gold and silver money which circulates in any country may very properly be compared to a highway, which, while it circulates and carries to market all the grass and corn of the country, produces itself not a single pile of either. The judicious operations of banking, by providing, if I may be allowed so violent a metaphor, a sort of waggon-way through the air, enable the country to convert, as it were, a great part of its highways into good pastures, and corn fields, and thereby to increase, very considerably, the annual produce of its land and labour.
And now here we are in a world of high information technology — and people think it’s smart, nay cutting-edge, to create a sort of virtual currency whose creation requires wasting real resources in a way Adam Smith considered foolish and outmoded in 1776. He's right, you know, because the only resource consumed by government currency is paper. |
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People won't truly understand how foolish it is to value bitcoins at more than, very optimistically, low double digits without robust infrastructure until this catastrophe reaches it's inevitable end in the single digits.
What kind of infrastructure would you like to see before you'd be willing to believe that Bitcoin is ready to grow? A more diverse exchange market, for one thing, populated by exchanges that follow sound policies and use more robust and expandable trading systems. I get it, we had to start somewhere, and were quickly overwhelmed by new users, so there's really not much anyone could have done. And I say this not without a sense of irony, but bitcoin's success now depends on well funded Wall Street types getting involved and implementing the same types of exchange infrastructure used in mature global markets. Bitcoin was created in part to stick it to the traditional banking system, but it's survival now depends on people from that very system coming in and using their resources to build a stronger financial services market on top of bitcoin. |
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The only thing we had to learn was that the whole sell-off was completely irrational and overdone. Bitcoin has the potential to turn markets on its head and is going to be worth billions upon billions of dollars in the nearby future. Since it had to start at zero, a huge price increase has always been inevitable. There never has been a single good reason for the market to go down, other than a stupid, irrational panic.
Exactly. And as I mentioned in another thread, these last couple months have brought even more 'true believers' into the fold than we've ever had before. A whole new generation who are not immensely bothered by this correction. Yes, more get rich quick and newbs flooded in also but when they run away (and they won't ALL run), the new true believers will remain, and continue to grow the community and the price. [/quote] There are absolutely reasons for the market to go down, and stay down - namely, the weak infrastructure built on top of bitcoin. It simply is not ready for prime time, and will not be ready for a long time to come. The system is overloaded, and the only way for it to go in this state is down. |
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I see no one has learned their lesson yet, people are already buying it back up into triple digits...some of you are gonna get burned (again).
People won't truly understand how foolish it is to value bitcoins at more than, very optimistically, low double digits without robust infrastructure until this catastrophe reaches it's inevitable end in the single digits. |
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Let's see how many times we can bubble and crash in 2013.
What we need is speculators who are better at their job. What we need is infrastructure that can support growth. We don't have that right now, and without, the price might bubble up, but single digits are always on the horizon. |
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Let's see how many times we can bubble and crash in 2013.
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Anyone realized that the song was released at an opportune time?! Well done, proudhon  Just doing my job. |
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I wonder if proudhon bought yet  I'll buy again when it looks like the bottom is in. It isn't. |
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Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.
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Not to mention, on the very same night, my desktop gonked out on me (video card failure) and then my Internet went down!
Now that you mention it, I couldn't find my keys the night of the crash/attack for like 30 minutes. It's all connected! |
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The infrastructure will improve and the bitcoin price will limp along. Just because the infrastructure suddenly improves, won't mean everything goes back to 3 days ago. The improved infrastructure won't serve even a small fraction of users of the past few months because lots of them have been burned and realize that for now their state backed bank, that could possibly take 60% of their money, is a safer place to store their wealth than bitcoin.
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BTW, anyone look at blockchianed recently. Over 100,000BTCs have appeared on the order book in the last 48hrs. Gee, who knew there were that many bitcoins out there. The bid walls just looked so darn big compared to the little tiny supply. $10m is nothing. $16m is not enough to support all the bitcoins in the hands of EAs and everyone else who will dump when things look scary. There are enough bitcoins in the hands of capable and willing people that if things look really bad, they can take us all the way back to the starting point, and I mean sub dollar prices. And look what it takes given the weakness of the infrastructure built around bitcoin -- a DDoS attack.
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Everyone keeps talking about decentralized exchanges. Sorry if this is a dum dum head question...but where will the dollars be stored?
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World controller types who hold power by control of central banking and fiat money would almost certainly want bitcoin to decline or disappear entirely. What if someone, I don’t know, like George Soros, or perhaps someone acting on behalf of central banks, decided to pump up bitcoins deliberately by overbuying it, only to massively sell into the first opportune sign of weakness. It wouldn’t be that hard to do. They might be able to successfully paint a fake top into the market. Result, killed enthusiasm, and a promising bull run, nipped in the bud. Could this be a fake top in bitcoins? I very much doubt they can yet manipulate the bitcoin market with the same precision that they can do the gold and silver markets, because they don’t have futures contracts, ETFs and naked shorting to fine tune the downside. However those world controllers still have manipulation of perception via the media, and limitless fiat. In a small market like bitcoin, you’d hardly need that much fiat to move it up like that. Easy in fact if one had the sort of funds of someone like George Sorros or someone acting on behalf of a central bank. http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/fake-top/Nope. This really was a top. And assuming bitcoin can recover from this catastrophe, I don't think the price will come close to challenging the new high for around a half decade or more. We dun goofed. |
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