This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it. I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out. Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is. Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC. I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up. If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time? I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics. give us some specifics. Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no? If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD. The Report points out that those bots (Willy/Markus) have bought a total of about 650000 BTC over that time. Sometimes they didn't even spend money for those trades. These 650000 BTC (plus the recovered 200000 BTC) amount to the total amount of Gox's lost 850000 coins. So maybe those 650000 BTC never existed? Maybe they were stolen and Gox tried to buy them from the customers for fake FIAT. The bots were constantly buying in a way that made it almost impossible for the price to go down! Couldn't this be a very valid reason for a bubble?
|
|
|
I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).
i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them. Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!
|
|
|
Ha, yeah better not invest in that. Looks shady as hell to me. Some people on Havelock seem to have bought into it. It's like with all those altcoins. People try to diversify and buy blindly everything that comes around!
|
|
|
I guess the thread's already quite old and it isn't OP's birthday anymore. But anyways, Happy Birthday to all the people whose birthday it is today I also agree, there should be some dedicated thread where we can celebrate everyones birthday and have some nice cake! Yeah, awesome idea! Every day we sing some nice birthday songs and keep searching for the best pictures of tasty cakes! This community needs a good time once in a while!
|
|
|
Wow, so times are heating up again around AM? I really thought it might've tried to fly too close to the sun. Really interested in seeing their new mining solutions and whether they can hold up to those bold promises!
|
|
|
Indicate this.
Indicate that.
Jesus Christ, I've gotta crap.
Hey, it's the Speculation forum after all If we're not playing around with our nice little indicators, what would we be doing all day long?
|
|
|
I was looking at all the shit coins at the bottom of coinmarketcap and wondering if bitcoin will ever go the same way. Will new coins ever take bitcoin's place and push it lower and lower down the capitalization chart?
Nah, I'd be really puzzled if some coin ever throws bitcoin off of the first place. It's a pure question about adoption and exposure. And Bitcoin is leading by degrees of magnitudes. Side chains may incorporate other coins, though.
|
|
|
This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it. I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out. Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is. Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC. I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up. If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?
|
|
|
I hear he will be there
I guess there are quite a few people who will want to throw an extra-cold Frappucino in his face I am not promoting violence, but a HOT coffee would send an even stronger message. Throwing anything at his face is assault and could get you arrested. If you were to throw hot coffee in his face he would likely get seriously injured and you would likely end up in jail for a long time. Ever thought of people who just don't care anymore, though? I bet there are people who lost their live's savings on Mt. Gox and thus just seek revenge and don't care what happens to them. Mark's living a dangerous live right now!
|
|
|
I guess the main offense is, who is New York to regulate Bitcoin? They didn't make it. They don't own it. It's not theirs. It belongs to the world, not to any one state or country or government. Is the rest of the world going to follow New York? Highly unlikely. So who cares if New York tries to slap regulations on Bitcoin? Bitcoin is much bigger than New York. By trying to regulate it, they are simply limiting themselves. People will use it freely in every other place, and New York will be excluded.
Well, a state, city our country can only try to put rules in place they think will benefit their companies and citizens the most. If they devise rules they think are suitable for companies dealing with bitcoin, they can just do that. It's their task to provide a legal framework for companies operating in their state, after all. If you don't want to do business there, just don't do it then, I guess Do you believe these rules were made to benefit companies and citizens? How so? I'm not saying anything about the concrete rules that have been published regarding bitcoin. I'm just saying that a government may opt to put rules in place to protect their companies and citizens. Maybe the NY government believes those rules need to be put in place in order to avoid bankruptcies, scams, or whatnot.
|
|
|
BTC is too young to have High Quality books as there are no real experts with long time expirience in it, as..well...BTC itself is not around long enough. And yes...remotemass is correct....coders will always saY: "Best book about bitcoin you can get is source code itself", and yes, i agree there is need for something like that. There is a document that goes that path here: https://github.com/minium/Bitcoin-SpecPeople often need multiple years to write a good book. Even if someone started a book on bitcoin back in 2009 when the paper was released, they would've maybe just finished the first chapter. Donald Knuth hasn't even finished his series! Heck, he even invented a typesetting system (everyone uses nowadays) in order to write that book! I agree and yet disagree with the idea that there are any experts in the realm of bitcoin. From the technical side, the amount of expertise that has been put into the protocol (whether through contribution/development or vetting) is quite significant. The same can also be said about bitcoin from a market perspective with major investment firms studying bitcoin and its market. At the same time, I do understand the argument that bitcoin hasn't been around long enough to make quality content, but the same could be said about social networking and yet there was a plethora of content created during its early years. Social networks are several degrees of magnitude bigger than bitcoin, though. I wonder how much academic research there actually is when it comes to Bitcoin. Social networks are an interesting thing when it comes to psychology as well!
|
|
|
Zhao said in QQ earlier he didn't receive details about AM franchising. And everyone in China can buy BE200 at low price Yeah, there were at least 60 PH/s that need to be cleared from stock But do you have any idea about how low that price actually is? I didn't check the current price, but was given a price in May, from supplier that order 3ph worth. Asicminer stockholders may want to check their pacemakers and ensure they do not have history of high blood pressure. I think hashratio has rebrand their AM tube as galaxy dragonflies now But the $0.35 / GH/s back at the end of May or early June were right, weren't they?
|
|
|
I'm really skeptical regarding these recurring trends. The situation is completely different, but we have seen in the past that even big world or bitcoin news don't seem to move the price that much. So maybe it will repeat like you suggest, maybe it will be flat till new year. Well, I guess I'm still waiting for the Indians to wake up and go crazy on BTC Okay, umm but what's so different? We actually had less positive news last year, it seems. In fact, we just had the silk road seizure back then.
|
|
|
It's funny to stumble across the initial post in these times of ping-pong sideways-movements. You see, everyone back in last August complained about those boring times yet they didn't know a 1000% increase was to follow. I wonder how we will look back at these 'boring' times
|
|
|
Only the dumbest og the dumb buy on good news. Most of the crowd buys in the collective bullish euphoria.
Some people try to fish for the bottom. And good news might trigger a price increase. That's also what day-traders try to do. They use every minor news and market movement to justify their trades. And since they all do the same TA, they buy at the same time and thus create a rising price. It's a risky business, though.
|
|
|
The reasonable explanation is it's simply down to supply and demand. Big news can effect it, but not always. The price will probably rise or spike sooner or later, but we just need to keep getting merchants and people willing to spend their coins.
Yes. After all the price isn't exactly determined by the number of companies accepting bitcoin, but determined by the simple rules of supply and demand, exactly. We'll need to see some more growth and more merchants adopting bitcoin for the price to realize it. But if more and more big companies accept BTC, more fill follow suit. A good thing.
|
|
|
From the Tickerforum.org written by Karl Denninger Gotta give it to KD. He was spot on!! I hope that he's not correct about Bitcoin going to zero. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219662 BitCON: I Told You So You didn't name your boat, did you?
Or worse, buy into this crap over $200?
For those wondering where the support level is I will tell you -- but you have to promise not to tell anyone. Pinky promise, right? Ok, here 'ya go:
There is very strong support at $0.00.Is it that time of the year again? Ah no, it's already been quite some time since that statement. Good thing we're now well above $200... So there's that. Case closed.
|
|
|
Of course I hope for a massive spike in price, but just because a pattern on a graph happened before doesn't mean it will happen again.
No, but since it already happened multiple times before it may create some kind of positive-reinforcement loop and thus create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Just because people believe in the bubble suddenly actually is what makes the bubble appear. Some Star Trek timetravel shit right there, huh?
|
|
|
The thing is that with any coin there will always be someone who is a late adopter and finds the distribution unfair and hence there will be the demand for a new coin n+1 no matter if it actually is needed or not.
One thing bitcoin has that no other coin has is that it is the original.
I love the feature argument that is usually made with alts on why they are so much better than bitcoin. You may think you have the swiss army knife of cryptos but that still does not make it any better at chopping down trees.
But it's a good way of trying out new features. After all, these coins coin emerge in side-chains of bitcoin. That way we could profit from their potentially unique features and still remain in the big and 'established' bitcoin universe!
|
|
|
So you're saying we drop to $300 ish then fly up to 3kish?
Ha yeah, his chart indeed does suggest that. But like I said before, he probably got the exact timeframe of the smaller red rectangle wrong. It should end at the September recovery point of last year. At least I hope we're there now
|
|
|
|