I'm pretty much certain that the scalability issues can't be solved soon enough for the exponential trendlines to hold. My old back-of-the-envelope calculation suggested a max price of $400/BTC in the long term, unless the MAX_BLOCK_SIZE issue is solved. Of course it can momentarily shoot to 10 times that.
um what scale ability issues? Its just moving a decimal point for price. I think it will go the other way, price will go up which will drive solutions, because there is more money on offer. Also processing fees will drop as the price goes up because btc it worth more. finally block size can be increased As of now, the maximum block size that's going to be relayed by Bitcoin nodes is 1MB, which corresponds to about 7 transactions per second. If there's demand for more than that, fees will start to limit who gets to use the blockchain. If Bitcoin's popularity grows tenfold, we'll actually hit the limit and see its consequences. If bitcoin is deemed useful despite this restriction, expect to see a minimum fee for ANY TRANSACTION of several dollars. Currently there is no consensus among developers on whether this restriction will EVER be lifted. I agree scalability is an issue, but its mainly an issue for bitcoin as a medium of exchange, if people mainly want to use bitcoin as a store of value, you don't need that many transactions. Regardless, resolving scalability problems would obviously have a positive impact on price. |
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Also 'No counterparty risk' thats BS, when I spend my dollars via a debit/credit card I have huge protections, sending Bitcoin I have none.
No its not. The 'no counterparty risk' is about being able to hold your asset safely, not about whether or not you can trust the other party when you are making a transaction. |
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How come bitcoin holdings are unknowable and dollar and gold holdings aren't in your chart?
Seems to me like the only way your holdings can be unknowable is if you do person-to-person transactions outside of a legal framework, which works for dollars, gold and bitcoin alike.
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Thanks for the history lesson. Hadn't fulfilled my 'learn something new everyday' quotum yet  . Sorry -- i'm into that stuff myself (the gear, not the history) I wasn't being sarcastic, I genuinely found it interesting . |
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In Price, I see no bubble , look at the log-chart When it comes to the volume, I would say its a bubble, so what ? Would you call 2011 a bubble? PS: your volume isn't charted log scale. |
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1) Enjoy the trip !
2) I think you mean 95%, not 0.95%.
3) Don't think it would work. Imagine if you were only a small-timer and you had set the price at $ 1 a few years ago. Your company would basically be doing nothing for years. If you were bigger you might keep prices in check for a bit longer, but you can't keep a lid on market forces forever.
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we're in a superbubble. (not a regular bubble.)
In what way is it different from a regular bubble? Do you mean that we are still in a long-term bull-market? Yes. This is a heretofore unprecedented commodity -- itself representing the invention of a whole new class of commodity -- why would anyone expect it to behave like any other existing financial instrument? Agreed that it is a new commodity, I also think we are in a LT bull. Behaving like any other existing financial instrument --> because of human nature, and its way of doing price discovery. |
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A broken clock is right once a day...
PS: Obviously it is only once because it is a digital clock. We are talking about bitcoin here, remember?
Not if you use one of these:  Thanks for the history lesson. Hadn't fulfilled my 'learn something new everyday' quotum yet . |
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I for one don't agree with your analysis. Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly. My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs. I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable. But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits. Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything. Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC. My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned. He got a couple of things right by accident. Change to asic will tank the price - as difficulty is still moving up steeply, we're making coins faster than we're supposed to (adjustments every 10 - 12 days instead of ever 14). Some (probably the majority) of those miners will sell coins to get 'instant roi' on their new gear. That's round 1... once that's over some portion (probably the minority) will immediately buy more hardware and try to do it again. This cycle will repeat until the price goes down faster and faster... But, at some point the dropping price will create enough of an roi gap that they won't want to sell immediately. This is already happening as evidenced by some of the (insane?) offerings to sell avalon machines at 10000% markups. Those guys want out and will at some point break the re-investment cycle. The smart money is slowly buying as the price gets lower. The smart miner has already ordered all his asics and won't be cashing out immediately once he gets them... instead he'll be purchasing more mining hardware slowly over time (in a percentage equal to the difficulty increase percentage) to protect his income. This is the real stress test of the network. If bitcoin survives the jump to asic then it's unkillable and will be here forever. Yes, the increase in hash rate is indeed speeding up BTC supply atm, which has a negative effect on the price. However, if demand grew as much as it did before, that wouldn't matter. We are still churning out less bitcoins that before the block reward halving, and we managed to keep prices stable for a long time at 50 BTCs /block. I am also on the buying slowly as price gets lower plan (still have the majority of my initial position though, don't want to risk being wrong on this speculation and missing the train). My guess is bitcoin will deal/ is dealing with ASICs just fine. Negative legislation, limited scalability and network attacks are bigger potential issues imho, which won't necessarily kill bitcoin, but could have an impact on just by how many people it will be used, and thus also price. |
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we're in a superbubble. (not a regular bubble.)
In what way is it different from a regular bubble? Do you mean that we are still in a long-term bull-market? |
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I simply dont understand why people still draw those lines on graphs.. all this time i have learnt just one thing.. those graphs are utterly complicated and completely useless for anyone without knowledge of TA..and all it takes is a single whale to plunge the market and make all the analysis useless.. why do people even do TA for bitcoin??
 Yeaaah i am not on the forum all the time like you sarc.. i have patients to deal with.. but seriously has any of the TA ever proven correct?? Maybe 1 or 2. By coincidence. A broken clock is right once a day... PS: Obviously it is only once because it is a digital clock. We are talking about bitcoin here, remember? |
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When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.
If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.)
That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.)
Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways.
The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.)
Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us...
Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin...
You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES.
You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways.
They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"...
Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value.
I for one don't agree with your analysis. Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly. My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs. I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable. But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits. Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything. Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC. My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned. |
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I just find it weird than on a bitcoin forum, less than 40% have bitcoin in their portfolio...
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6 months next bubble !  no... within 6 months well have hit bottom for sure, and will be building up toward next bubble. So that recent $50.01 wasn't the bottom? Or you think maybe it will bounce around 100-130 for six months...? I am still on the "slow decline, buy in on the way down (or in a couple of months)" plan. Guess we'll see just how much history repeats itself... |
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It's relevant, but it shouldn't be in the press section.
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It would be nice if the number of dollars that are available to put in a new loan offer was shown.
Now, you have to check the lendable balance and substract the sum of unfilled offers. Its not the end of the world, but its unnecessary work that you have to do a lot --> room for improvement.
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Still waiting for a SEPA transfer from 2013-04-09... This is ridiculous, almost always the same standard replies. Hopefully my last more angry mail will trigger some action  Also found out their SEPA limit is only 60,000 euros! Very similar situation here, post by DDreez makes me hopeful I'll see some of my money in the next couple of days... |
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PS: I was wondering where bitfinex keeps its fiat money. Is it all on a mtgox (and recently a bitstamp) account?
Hi Spcamen, We keep a part on our bank account, and most of the funds on MtGox and Bitstamp. The proportion depends on the volume we have on the different exchanges and internally. As our internal volume grow we are able to keep more and more on our bank account (and cold wallet for bitcoins). Currently it's something like 30% to us, and the rest shared on the two others. Hope this answers the question, sorry it took so long I missed it somehow. Ok, thanks for the reply |
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Still no reply? If you don't want to disclose this information, then at least give me a reason why you don't want to... Hiya Bitfinex crew, could you address my previous question? I want to know to what extent keeping funds at bitfinex can be considered 'banking diversification' to my fiat at gox. Thanks PS: I was wondering where bitfinex keeps its fiat money. Is it all on a mtgox (and recently a bitstamp) account?
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