so the lender is fully exposed to a loss if the borrower blows up? What makes a loan insured or un-insured? Is that an option that the lender chooses before he posts his lend offer?
Yes, but there is rarely (read: never) any money left in the insurance pool. Only if the loss is greater than the margin that the borrower has left during forced liquidation. |
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question: I haven't done any margin trading or shorting on bitfinex yet, but I am considering shorting LTC/BTC at some point in the future.
Does it matter in what form of money my margin is? (i.e. do I need USD, BTC, LTC ?)
Any peculiar things or common mistakes I should look out for when trading on margin? (for example how do you partially close a position etc.)
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What makes a loan insured or un-insured? Is that an option that the lender chooses before he posts his lend offer?
Yes, but there is rarely (read: never) any money left in the insurance pool. |
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From what I read, it is only Bitcoins that create issues. So we do speak of an influx of BTC only. IŽd say, once these coins hit the exchange, people are going to sell. My guess is <985 once issues are fixed.
Or people feel reassured and confident again because things are working like they should, and stop freaking out and selling the BTC they still have on balance on bitstamp. See, you can reason for the opposite to happen as well. That's why we are in the speculation subforum. You are right, there is always room for speculation. Lets see how this is going to turn out. But why would you deposit BTC on Bitstamp anyway ? To keep them there ? Those people were hoping to sell at higher prices... to trade |
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I was just talking with an employee at Bitstamp and he told me they had a broadcast delay, and everything should be working now, I can try send some BTC my self and report back, but BTW why didnt you open a ticket and if you did what kind of answer you got ? Does it mean that once the deposit issues are fixed, we can expect an influx of both BTC and USD and an increase in trading activity as the result? >1025 tonight? From what I read, it is only Bitcoins that create issues. So we do speak of an influx of BTC only. IŽd say, once these coins hit the exchange, people are going to sell. My guess is <985 once issues are fixed. Or people feel reassured and confident again because things are working like they should, and stop freaking out and selling the BTC they still have on balance on bitstamp. See, you can reason for the opposite to happen as well. That's why we are in the speculation subforum. |
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This is actually quite interesting. Wordpress made a comment that not many people are using Bitcoin to pay for their service.
It appears that people are afraid to spend their Bitcoins, as they could be so much more worth tomorrow. On the other hand, vendors are scared to accept them because of the volatility.
DonŽt people believe in bitcoins because they believe in increasing adoption and use ? China has made this one much more difficult. Bitcoin has been put into the corner of a pure speculation object.
From a personal experience, I had quite a few people buying bitcoins from me during the last a few years. Interestingly I have recently not found one person who was willing to pay $1000 or more to have one. Almost everyone I speak to have heard about bitcoin till now, but no one wants to buy them at at current prices. Not even a fraction of a bitcoin.
Those who bought from me then at prices between 5-12 USD, are now asking me to help them to sell, as they rather want a shiny new smartphone for their bitcoin. (They have not found a store who would take their bitcoin and exchange it for an Phone....)
There is only a small amount of people who can gain in this game and the majority will lose. Currently everyone, including myself, who has bitcoins is winning... how sustainable is this ?
If everybody switches to bitcoin, it's the fiat holders that lose... |
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Does anybody know of a platform that lets you short altcoins (other than litecoin) ?
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...
but i started to get an inkling that we might back in the summer when the HR kept escalating, escalating, and then going parabolic while the price just stagnated in the last 6 mo consolidation. i mine b/c i like to hang out in the Custom Hardware forum to get a feeling about how miners think and what they are doing. most of them never venture over here to Speculation and vice versa. they have their own community and compulsive way of thinking that help educate my speculation/investment mindset. during the summer, we miners were undergoing our own form of breathtaking action in the HR while all the speculation guys were over here wringing their hands about a plunge back to 2. i kept saying in my newsletter we were going to get a "snap UP" to catch the price back up to the HR. guys like Frozenlock kept arguing with me saying that price always leads HR. i even caught evoorhees making a case that mining was irrelevant to the price over on Reddit. not in this case. you could easily see that millions of fiat dollars were being poured into the new gold rush of Bitcoin mining by old and new miners alike somehow thinking they could easily get in on the groundfloor of the new asic mining machines. there was a mentality going around that somehow mining would be more lucrative than outright BTC buying, especially after the price had gone to the "bubble high" of 266. the different buckets of the Bitcoin economy were being filled by raining fiat in an asymmetric pattern with the mining bucket first overflowing. i knew we were going to get that snap UP especially after we double bottomed at 65. i said it more than once in my letter. i could see the frustration and disgust creeping into the miners from the rising difficulty and you could start to pick out more and more comments about giving up mining and going to buy BTC directly around Aug/Sept. and sure enough, we got that snap UP. but i didn't think we'd come this far this fast.
that is, until it became clear to me that we are in a logarithmic progression.
The "hashrate leads" theory is extremely interesting. Equilibrium price comes at the point where the number of bitcoins people want to buy equals the number of bitcoins people want to sell. That means that for meaningful price movement to occur, something needs to happen for people to want to hold their bitcoins tighter, or something needs to happen for people to want to buy more coins. And you're right; probably tens of millions were spent on mining-related hardware in the past 6 months, because difficulty was low and everyone had it in their head it was a prudent investment (I admit, I was one of them; tried to get a number of Klondike miners with the loose Avalon chips). That's fiat people DON'T want to spend on coins. But at some point the hashrate grows to a point where it's clearly NOT a prudent investment any longer, and that money diverts to bitcoins themselves, driving the price up to the point where price clearly outstrips hashrate again (in that sense, mining is critical to restraining price growth to sane levels !). That raises questions about the other "buckets" of the greater Bitcoin economy, too. What's the macro effect of altcoins? During a runup, they seem to outperform bitcoins and put downward pressure on the system... but during bear markets the money flows back out to Bitcoin and helps balance out the price. Seemingly the altcoins are also a ballasting/moderating influence on the system. Beautifully put chaps. Should become recommended reading for anyone in this forum imho.  Agreed, insightful posts. While the occassional blabbering and trolling on this forum is fun, this is the stuff I really like to read. |
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CD, you are one of the very few who saw that price follows difficult, very cool  every time i say that people tell me im a witch! Yeah it took me a while to realize it, because at first it looks like a typical economic fallacy, maybe like the Labor Theory of Value sneaking in. But cypher is exactly right, people are trying to get BTC and they see two ways: buy or mine. If everyone is piling into mining, that will push the price lower than it otherwise would have been. That means, for instance, in the summer when the price was range-bound and everyone was jumping into mining, the price should have been continuing its exponential growth with no slowdown. All that happened was some of that growth was siphoned off into the mining sector even as the network effects continued and Bitcoin kept mushrooming. That excess started to slosh back into Bitcoin in October. yeah i know, i assumed it was the other way around, but when you read the charts, no way to deny it. just wait until this next round of asics (jan to mark) makes the rate go crazy again! next sumer we will see $5,000 easy I am still not convinced that there is such a direct link between the hash rate and the price. I am starting to see now that production of bitcoin is a somewhat different animal than regular goods production, in that the "industry" is not solely composed out of producers trying to make a product for the customers to buy, while trying to keep production costs under the price of the sold product to earn a profit, but that for a number of miners it is an alternative way to 'buy' bitcoins. But given that knowledge, isn't the amount of money being put into mining hardware the important factor that shows demand for bitcoins on the mining side, and not mining power per se (meaning that efficiency increases don't really matter)? |
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So they just discovered bitcoin and "analyse" that the fair value is precisely 10% above yesterday's value, 5% above last week's ATH  I want that job ! And everybody can see that bitcoin equals silver,... right? 'Tis the purest form of science. |
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bitcoinwisdom is acting weird for me.
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Some chump change got released from loan, so I got to buy at $920 on finex, looking like a good deal so far.
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bleh, fiat not accessible, otherwise I would have bought some here.
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Ok, I guess I just proved your point that speculation guys don't hang out in the miner forum a lot . probably a good thing. they have their own special form of troll over there that is particularly nasty. Now you are just making me curious . ask User705. he's one of them. Thanks, I'll check him out  . |
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Does that portend a similar scenario now? I keep seeing new people talking about which preorder is best and buying am cubes. Feels oddly familiar.
Well you can hardly argue that the speculative direct buying of bitcoins isn't going on right now. |
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Ok, I guess I just proved your point that speculation guys don't hang out in the miner forum a lot . probably a good thing. they have their own special form of troll over there that is particularly nasty. Now you are just making me curious . |
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Ok, I guess I just proved your point that speculation guys don't hang out in the miner forum a lot . |
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i didn't think so either back then.
but i started to get an inkling that we might back in the summer when the HR kept escalating, escalating, and then going parabolic while the price just stagnated in the last 6 mo consolidation. i mine b/c i like to hang out in the Custom Hardware forum to get a feeling about how miners think and what they are doing. most of them never venture over here to Speculation and vice versa. they have their own community and compulsive way of thinking that help educate my speculation/investment mindset. during the summer, we miners were undergoing our own form of breathtaking action in the HR while all the speculation guys were over here wringing their hands about a plunge back to 2. i kept saying in my newsletter we were going to get a "snap UP" to catch the price back up to the HR. guys like Frozenlock kept arguing with me saying that price always leads HR. i even caught evoorhees making a case that mining was irrelevant to the price over on Reddit. not in this case. you could easily see that millions of fiat dollars were being poured into the new gold rush of Bitcoin mining by old and new miners alike somehow thinking they could easily get in on the groundfloor of the new asic mining machines. there was a mentality going around that somehow mining would be more lucrative than outright BTC buying, especially after the price had gone to the "bubble high" of 266. the different buckets of the Bitcoin economy were being filled by raining fiat in an asymmetric pattern with the mining bucket first overflowing. i knew we were going to get that snap UP especially after we double bottomed at 65. i said it more than once in my letter. i could see the frustration and disgust creeping into the miners from the rising difficulty and you could start to pick out more and more comments about giving up mining and going to buy BTC directly around Aug/Sept. and sure enough, we got that snap UP. but i didn't think we'd come this far this fast.
that is, until it became clear to me that we are in a logarithmic progression.
HR=? |
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One final correction to 1080 before next leg?
more like $1160 |
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...
seems like just yesterday when we passed silver.
...
Indeed, it does. I remember when we passed silver, thinking something like: "Well, that was fun. Next stop gold, but it'll be a few years.". Heh. Yup, I wouldn't for the life of me have thought that we would catch up to gold this year already. |
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