It is still in the middle of September, not sure whether the market still goes without a significant move. But so far, I agree that September isn't a good time for Bitcoin and altcoins as a whole. Almost all crypto coins are difficult to increase during this month, it is probably because we have some bad news lately. The issue related to the intervention and accusations of SEC to some crypto platforms, make investors to feel a bit worried. If this news never ends, it is difficult for BTC to rise above $30k again.

I also expect the price of Bitcoin can be around $35k-$40k in the next 3 months. We are actually not very far from BTC halving, but the price still looks hard to increase. I sometimes think that it is because many whales still want to buy more.

I think @ndutndut doesn't say claim it blindly.
Whatever the reason, it is always not advisable keeping money in the gambling account. It is not only about the security or popularity of the gambling site. When we have money in gambling site, we probably use all the money for gambling. Sometimes, it is not easy to control emotion, we can think to chase winnings. In this situation, we easily gambling more and more because we have saving money in gambling account. But if we have no saving money in gambling account, we can be easier to stop gambling whenever we are difficult to control emotion.

So, even if the gambling site is very secure and highly trusted, it can't guarantee our money safe. It is because of our habit in gambling, there is always the time when we are out of control in emotion.

The reason why they ban it is interesting.  
I think Australian government is smart enough to know what the gambling is. $25bn is surely a big amount, but it is people's money, not the money of the government. As long as the people are okay with the losses, I think Australian government doesn't need to ban it immediately. People spend money on gambling isn't only for gaining money, some people do it for entertainment. Spending money for entertainment, I think it is not a problem. Moreover, we know that gambling isn't a place for expecting income. If Australian government expects for profits through gambling, it means they don't understand what gambling is.

If they ban credit card for gambling, it will impact on online gambling, too. However, we don't if online gambling will restrict Australian people or not.

You're right. Bullish and bearish seasons will repeat constantly.
So, we're not just going to a bull season, we will experience another bearish season again in the future.

Unfortunately, both bearish and bullish season have approximately the same duration of the season. As far as I know, each season will take around 2 years. That's why people call it as 4 years cycle. We have 2 years of bearish and 2 years of bullish.

Do you think it is possible for a longer bullish season? 

Pastinya kebanyakan yang gabung forum ini dengan alasan investasi atau trading BTC. Forum ini kan spesifik untuk media komunikasi terkait crypto, khususnya Bitcoin.

Investasi crypto itu investasi beresiko tinggi. Mau investsai di Bitcoin ataupun altcoins, dua-duanya high risk investment. Hanya saja altcoins resikonya lebih besar karena volatilitas lebih tinggi dan banyak altcoins yang fundamentalnya tidak jelas. Apalagi altcoins baru, meme coins, atau shitcoins. Golongan koin-koin ini adalah koin dengan resiko paling tinggi.

Yang namanya ingin berinvestasi crypto, harus berani dengan resikonya. Jika tidak mau berurusan dengan resikonya, mending tidak usah investasi crypto. Bukan cuman ilmu yang harus mumpuni, mental juga wajib kuat jika ingin investasi Bitcoin ataupun altcoins. Kalau masih takut dengan resiko, berarti mentalnya belum cocok untuk investasi crypto.

Bukan hanya bagus, tapi memang harus. Kita yang memutuskan berinvestasi Bitcoin atau altcoin, artinya kita siap menerima resiko apapun ke depannya. Mengambil resiko itu tidak masalah asalkan ada perhitungan yang jelas, tidak hanya sekedar berani saja. Gunakan analisa, pake riset, dan terapkan pendekatan tertentu dalam menentukan langkah terkait resiko investasinya. Sederhananya, aplikasikan manjement resiko yang sesuai.

Mengenai modal, yang penting bukan uang pinjaman atau uang untuk kebutuhan pokok. Pakailah uang lebihan, uang yang tidak mempengaruhi finansial kita meskipun harus diinvestasikan dalam jangka waktu yang lama.

Tidak mungkin wawasan seseorang akan sama karena selama proses naik ranknya pasti melewati banyak proses pembelajaran. Tanpa kita sadari, sebenarnya wawasan kita terus bertambah seiring makin seringnya kita ikut berdiskusi di forum. Wawasan baru bisa kita dapat dari post orang lain, bisa juga dari riset kita sendiri. Kadang saya sendiri butuh riset dulu untuk merespon topik atau post dari orang lain.

Ukuran wawasan seseorang itu kadang subjektif. Jadi kita tidak bisa menyimpulkan seseorang wawasannya tidak berkembang walaupun naik peringkat. Kadang dari segi penulisannya tidak banyak perubahan, tapi dari segi konten atau isi postnya banyak kemajuan. Ada juga yang postnya semakin banyak hal faktual yang disertai referensi. Yang lebih keren lagi, kadang ada yang lebih banyak membahas hal yang bersifat teknis. Jadi perkembangan itu bisa dilihat dari banyak sudut pandang, jangan mudah menyimpulkan hanya dari satu sudut pandang.

Ukuran wawasan seseorang tidak semata-mata dilihat dari rank saja. Ada orang yang wawasannya luas padahal masih low rank. Itu mungkin karena jarang aktif berdiskusi di forum. Ada orang yang lebih suka diskusi di luar forum, seperti di sosmed. Ada yang sibuk dengan tradingnya atau kerjaan realnya, jadinya tidak punya banyak waktu mengurus akunnya di forum.

How do you know most day traders got loses?
I've no idea about the stats of loses or wins of day traders. I think there is no valid source that can describe/explain it. It is impossible to know the number of active day traders. However, if day traders are more aware about the importance of knowledge and emotion control, I think they will have bigger chance to succeed.

Ideally, there should be bigger number of success traders because we have varied sources for learning. When day traders are educated and mature enough, they won't easily get losses.

I think if a day trader got more losses than success in trading, he probably stops it. If he continues to have more portfolios, it means he is quite success in trading.

Do you think a smaller number of newbies will be a serious problem?
I don't think so. This forum never targets to have certain number of members. Even we have no newbies, the activities still last as usual, no serious impact on the forum activities. Each member can bring fresh ideas, it doesn't only come from newbies. Even old members can be more effectively to spread Bitcoin information because they have established knowledge. It is different when newbies spread the Bitcoin information, they can mislead it because of lack of knowledge. Regarding the discussion, most the members involved in discussions constantly are old members. New members sometimes rarely join discussion due to varied reasons.

It is lucky that you only regret 1 time and you can take a lesson from it. There are gamblers who regret many times but they never take the lessons from the mistakes. I think you can easily take the lesson because you aren't an addict. It will be difficult when you are an addict, you have an intention to gamble in a better way but you can't.

Sure, even people who have good knowledge and experienced enough, still get difficulty to control emotion. It is because the emotion is related to our desires to chase winnings. That's why we need to limit time and funds, it is functioned to stop our unlimited desires in gambling. If we have no limitations in gambling, we probably end up with an excessive gambling.

It is not strange, there was a case when star players didn't make a big influence (especially for the result of the game). For example PSG stats in UCL, they already failed many times winning it although they have Messi, Neymar, Mbappe, Ramos, Hakimi, Verratti, Marquinhos, and Gianluigi Donnarumma. These many star players can't help much PSG to achieve UCL trophy. Ronaldo also failed many times to help Al Nassr getting full points in SPL matches. That's one of the reasons why AL Nassr failed to win SPL title last season. So, not every time that the star players can contribute much for the team.

Yes, the football match basically is unpredictable. The star players (like Ronaldo, Messi, and Mbappe) is just one of the factors to determine the final result of the match. They can't guarantee the final result of the match.

We can't blame the BLT recipients, the use it for consumptive needs probably because of certain reasons. I'm very sure that the government is aware about the potential misused of the BLT. But the government doesn't think too much about it, they keep applying that instant solution because they don't want to be busy thinking more effective solutions. Actually, the best solution is to provide decent jobs for the society. However, it must take more efforts and time, the government doesn't want to be complicated in providing the solution.

At the end of the day, we must find the solution ourselves. If we are aware about the potential crisis of foods, we must prepare the solution since today. Not only by finding more decent jobs for ourselves, we also need to try to fulfill our own foods by making simple agricultural fields (if it is possible).

We have no choice, the government will never consider our rejection. The government probably has certain plans to increase the fuel costs. They won't take the responsibility, they will assume it is the responsibility of the society.

I'm not pessimistic, I just think realistically.
I'm experiencing the situation in 2020. It was the pandemic crisis, but the bullrun still happens as expected in 2021. However, the situation is not the same as in 2020-2021 anymore. The current issues are quite different, we can't compare it with the previous periods.

I'm sure whoever the investors, they must think twice when the issue comes from ETF case or SEC intervention. Personally, I think it is more serious case than economic status.

Well, finally it is about how strong we are holding our BTC asset. You're right, the FUDs shouldn't be a problem if we trust on the future of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin halving is getting closer, the best time for buying/collecting may be over soon. When the FUDs disappear, I guess the price will increase constantly toward the new ATH.

I also live in Indonesia, I know we are in the economic crisis since the pandemic happening. Yes, our government already made some efforts, but I don't think they made effective solutions. BLT is the example of a useless effort, it is just an instant money given by the government. Since the number of money is rather small, it sometimes only last few days. Even in certain cases, some people who got the BLT program spend all the money in a day. I think it is much better if the government provide the jobs for the people. When the people get regular jobs, they can get the money themselves. They can get the foods with their own efforts.

Indeed. When there are star players on the match, people will be more interested to watch and bet on the match. The trend or popularity of the match becomes increasing easily, that's because the star players have many big fans around the world. So, it makes sense if the potential money to earn bigger when betting on the match played by the star players.

Yes, the result of the match can't guarantee by the star players. There are many cases that the team of star players got defeated by smaller teams. Especially in a football match, it is a team game. The team which can play more solidly probably win the match. The star player isn't the main reason for a team to win the match.

Sure. If we always gamble in the right way and never gamble excessively, we can avoid the addiction. We need to be discipline and has he some limitations, so we can handle everything properly. I suggest that we have certain rules for ourselves in gambling, we need to obey the rules for healthy gambling. For example, we limit the time to gamble in each day, may be around 2 hours as the maximum time. Then, we need to allocate the maximum funds to use daily. And we must to remind ourselves to never take a loan for gambling. If we obey these rules, I think we can avoid addiction.

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*We limit the time and funds allocation daily, but doesn't mean we must gamble everyday. There should be time for no gambling time. On weekend, it will be better to gather with family and lovely friends.  

Yep. There is no definite profits. Whatever the investment is, no guarantee for profits. Moreover, when we invest in Bitcoin, it is categorized as a high risk investment. Since Bitcoin is a high risk investment, everyone must understand that there are bigger risks in Bitcoin. That's why some people say that investing in Bitcoin is almost the same as 'speculating'.

When we talk about profits, it is actually not an empty promise. It is actually very possible, the chance is real. But it will be a mistake if we guarantee the profits. People probably will misunderstand Bitcoin investment, they will assume Bitcoin is a safe asset. In reality, the high volatility in Bitcoin makes it risky, and the price move is mostly unpredictable, too.

Self-control isn't something easy to have. If you are not an experienced gambler, it is hard to control the emotion when experiencing losses. This emotion leads to more and more attempts in gambling, then we become more often in gambling. Finally, this habits makes us to be addiction. That's because the chance to recover the losses is small, so we always try to expects big wins someday. This expectation makes us to spend bigger funds, when the funds is over we decide to take loan money.

In addition, good self-control will be easy to have if a gambler know well what the gambling is. Unfortunately, many gamblers don't understand what attitude should be in gambling. Chasing wins, expect rich instantly, or wants get stable income from gambling, these the indicators that a gambler doesn't understand well what gambling is.

Nothing wrong if you like it, calling Bitcoin as digital cash/currency/money is okay. As long as you don't call as real cash/currency, people won't complain. 

Why you don't like other terms? I think both currency and money are related to fiats as well. It is the usual term we used for fiats. But I think it is no problem to use for Bitcoin, too. Bitcoin is a digital currency that people use for online transactions. The function is almost the same as fiats, so it is okay if people assume Bitcoin as a currency, too.

Of course, when we trade with no proper knowledge and lack of skills, probably will end up with loses. Trading requires good knowledge and skills, it is the basic thing needed. Without them, trading will be almost the same as gambling because nothing to rise the chance for the success. Gambling with a random way probably has no clear goal, we seems like only trading by relying on the luck only. If we rely on the luck, there is nothing different with gambling.

Indeed. There will be no success if we don't want to spend time for learning. Success in trading can't be achieved instantly, it needs time and process. Be an experienced trader first if we want to expect for success. 

Normally, each gambler must focus on the game, they won't have time to bother other gamblers. Make something annoying won't only bother the focus on other gamblers, it also will ruin the focus of someone who does the annoying attitude. So, it is actually not the right way to increase the chance to win because it also brings the bad impact to the offender, too.

Agree. It is absolutely an unprofessional attitude, shouldn't be done by any good gambler. I'm sure if someone still does unprofessional attitude, he is still an average gambler. A professional gambler knows well how to gambler properly. Bothering others isn't the right way in gambling, it never makes someone to improve the gambling ability.