There are however lots of people not understanding what chance means when you have lots of actors
I can only speak for me: In financial markets, more than 70% of my trades are profitable
...
not everyone is skilled to do it
You fail at understanding chance. If a thousand traders decide whether to buy or sell depending on coin flips, some of them will outperform the market and some won't. The ones who outperformed the market when looking back will claim it's due to their skills at flipping coins. Yet it's still not predictive. |
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technical chart analysis of bitcoin prices can really help a lot to guide you
... is your opinion. Another opinion would be that there's no case ever of technical analysis outperforming chance in predicting market movement. Ever. There are however lots of people not understanding what chance means when you have lots of actors, and humans ARE hard wired to see patterns in everything.
But you are right, not everyone is skilled to do it and more importantly, has the proper money management discipline. This is where most people fail, whatever method they use, be it fundamental or technical. |
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Unfortunately, there is no simple, reuccring "rhyme" in the bitcoin market nor in most other financial markets, otherwise it would be too easy...
Fortunately, technical chart analysis of bitcoin prices can really help a lot to guide you.
Have a look at http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/ or subscribe for newest and deeper bitcoin price forecast to guide bitcoin trading.
Currently, there is no reason for me to buy. We need to see either a high volume rally that breaks through at least the 12 $ area, or more likely there will be a steeper drop before attempting to bottom out
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It is fixed now, thanks Blitzboom
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Clark,
your site is just great.
One question on the depth of the order book on MtGox. Can you display the full order book or is it truncated?
If it is truncated, it should have no orders above and below a certain level.
The reason why I am asking is that there are only very small bids below 6 $ and only small asks above 12 $. What is the truth?
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Your assessment is correct. Based on form of the pattern and volume, we will likely see the next wave of selling.
Only a strong , big volume move above 12 or 14 $ would change that. Very likely, even 10.5 $ is a big resistance level.
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It happened today, see chart example
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I agree that there are competitors who might be better.
But noone dares to do proper marketing and advertising.
You cant expect to overtake the marketleader with a "garage shop" operation.
and thanks for the advice with refreshing. I am trying now.
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As mentioned before, one big issue with bitcoin is related to one of its greatest benefits: The decentralization. This fosters individuals randomly developing (often great businesses around bitcoin). But noone coordinates PR, marketing , advertising, which means a lot of waste and contradictory messages.
Companies -at least many of them- do consistent brand building, which bitcoins are lacking massively.
If this does not start quickly, the "outside world" will be successful keeping bitcoins down. I.e. bitcoins is acompetition to government currencies, to big credit cards companies, etc.
Coordinated efforts are needed from all of us bitcoiners, rather than complaining and debating about minor issues in this forum foreever.
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The bitcoin price charts are screwed because of this fake dip...
MtGox, please test changes online first, before going live. Thank you.
And please, remove this trade from the history. Thank you a second time.
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Thanks, this does not help bringing back confidence for investors and traders. Just imagine those things happened weekly on major stock exchanges...
We need better, more secure, more professional exchanges, quickly, before people turn away from bitcoins and prices are back to pennies.
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Yes, there is no reason to buy bitcoins beyond day-trading activities, when considering reward / risk ratios.
Even a rise to 10$ or 12$ would not yet eliminate the downward risk to the 5 $ area. And if 5$ does not hold there is a risk for a much bigger crash, as we also outlined in the subscription section.
by the way, what happened just minutes ago? There is a brief spike to 6 $ on the charts? Is there yet again another issue / hack on Mtgox??? I hope not.
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Bitcoin Forecast: Long term: UP.Mid term: DOWN.
Short term: DOWN.Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN. The short term rally that started at 5.74 $ came to an end yesterday with a decline below 10.5 $ and 10 $. This is a bearish sign and shows that bitcoin prices have entered a more protracted correction again . Further downside is now more likely. It will take a move above 14 $ to confirm the mid term rally continuation. A test or even break of the key level of 5.74 $ is now quite probable. Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis The strong decline from yesterday has changed the outlook significantly. 1) Bitcoin Prices broke beneath the key 10 $ and 10.5 $ level. 2) The bitcoin market is now below the green upper resistance line. 3) The momentum indicator MACD is likely to confirm a sell signal with a bearish cross over. 4) The relative strength is waning and is now again below 50, which is also bearish.  Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical and Bitcoin market analysis here. Your S3052 Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. |
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 Not really cheap china stuff..
See in the picture: Armani fragrances, and many more great brands. |
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cypherdoc: Agree on deflation. Big time.
It just seems that there are some hardcore inflationists with linear thinking that we can only convince them once S&P is below 600 and Silver bewlo 10 $. But I am happy to wait for this to happen until posting in this thread again :-)
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Bruce, I don't want to imagine where bitcoin would be without you.
Well done and keep going. Don't get demotivated by people criticizing you. They should rather help you or dooing sth good for bitcoin themselves.
I will come to the Amsterdam conference for sure.
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Volume alone does not dictate direction. This is an obvious transfer of wealth from new entrants and/or weak hands to interests recognizing gold as money. Like taking candy from a baby.
this is /GC, another gold futures contract. this goes back to 6/05. see that volume bar all the way to the right? highest volume EVER since the creation of this contract. ignore at your peril.
That's like saying that Bitcoin will crash because the price has risen as more participants invest in it. The same price drop would occur if just one giant fund sold several tonnes in one order. With high volume, it's a lot of little guys bailing out while the big fish scoop up the goodies. As offered above: like taking candy from a baby - by startling it into dropping the candy. Start thinking like a big fish, leave the emotions behind. What needs to be paid attention to is the fact that there are three instances where you could've claimed the same as what you're saying now. "Highest volume ever with the drop in early 2008!" "Highest volume ever on a decline at the end of 2009!" "Highest volume ever with the fall in mid-2011!" All of those during the time since housing collapsed and triggered a global panic. That was the point when control really started slipping and it's getting to a stage where control is lost. Not there yet, but it will get there. I'll be buying hand-over-fist this week, then selling in stages above $2000/oz. None of my physical metal is for sale at any price.
And if you are in the same way bullish Silver as you are with Gold, then I would be very very careful, because I expext the bigegst silver decline in this century. |
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It's pretty clear that nobody is buying bitcoins anymore. Anyone that's going to buy up a lot of coins right now to prove me wrong is just throwing away money.  The only reason the price is staying in place is because of a select few rich individuals that can absorb enough coins to counteract any attack. Nobody is selling because they see how much money is 'readily available' but that money would be used by now if it were intended to be used. S3052 I saw your post in the press hits thread about http://www.bitcoindeals.com that may one of the biggest things developed for bitcoin yet as far as getting mainstream attention it's the ultimate answer to the question "but what can you buy with them?" I don't understand why it's not being seen as the big deal that it is, if it's 50% of what it claims almost up there with silk road for headline worthiness. does it have it's own thread? |
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"coiner" EDIT: "COINED" asked me whether bitcoindeals is really something big.
I can only speak for myself. It is BIG. I have seen alone 20,000 items in the computer and electronics area to buy with bitcoins.
The founders just want to make sure to have all ducks in the row before opening it to real big traffic, but it is very professional - and to me, a breakthrough in trading goods for bitcoins.www.bitcoindeals.comhttps://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinDeals
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