It can safely go another $50 or $100 as long as the weekly doesn't close there and leaves a really strong pinbar.

I see this is as the most realistic shape if there is going to be another bubble. Not months, years. The shape looks good at this will time for the USD to take over from China and for the coders to fix the throughput issues.

So who's going to fly to China with a suitcase of cash?

Expect 750 to put up a good fight.

The pattern of rallying on an ATH is over.

This is the part that I live for

You could look at the past 2 months as one of the major rallies with a breakout point of 4100, and it is very weak/slow compared to the previous two breakouts from 1500 and 3000 and is nearly over, the end of some elliot wave, leading into a crash from severe disappointment or a sideways motion for another year or two before the real ATH break.

This could also be the slow ramp up into a 2012-style bubble breakout with a 1,000%+ gain.

In any case the only sensible thing to do is hold. Maybe sell a small portion (permanently) if you think you need the money. You can't really trade because the exchanges suck and have low volume and it's so hard to predict a move or re-entry point, and your gain is unlikely to exceed taxes. Altcoin trading is always good too, if you want to trust Poloniex with some of your coins.

Anything is possible here. A 1000% gain. going sideways for another year, or a 50% drop. Pretty good odds to have in a casino.

This is more like a rattly subway than a train.

Bitcoin is too fragile to be used for 'global economic unity' or anything like that. Try to think in a timespan of beyond 20 years in which it will definitely be hacked/cracked by then or they will find some way to keep the network from functioning in some way or the other. In a best case scenario, we briefly touch something like $20,000 in a speculative bubble before crashing. That is the play here.

I think China Bans Bitcoin would fit the bill perfectly, but they would have to actually do it, like the government actually speaks and passes a law and all of the exchanges actually shut down. It fits the analogy with silk road as 'thing that was perceived to matter a great deal that really didnt'. Bitcoin forking would be another level - that's definitely something that actually matters.

End of the world wall. Demon wars.

The bear is coming. Run for your lives.

The price of Bitcoin on Huobi is like 'the price of tea in China'.

Now is the perfect time for me to come out and say something bearish and point at some line on a chart.

There was too much positive sentiment,  too high rsi, and the chart was not compete

Longer test/consolidation of 660, or failure

What if you're trade altcoins against btc but never sell the btc. Do you pay taxes even if you haven't sold,  and how do you base the value of the btc.

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

Chinese exchanges lead because they are the current axe in trading and there is no efficient arbitrage. It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with China.  In fact there could be traders from all over the world on these exchanges to trade in the high volume,  assuming they're not totally fake. In 2012-2013 it was customary for mtgox to be 10% ahead of other exchanges simply due to their volume, but nothing to do with japan. btce has always been behind,  but that has nothing to do with Russia.

If you want to know why Bitcoin is rallying, it's probably due to Segwit and Lightning.

There's also a small chance of capital flight from the Chinese exchanges. Not from China... just from the exchanges themselves, similar to the run up before Mtgox...