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This week is another turn window for Gold (the last window did produce a decline, but only temporary).
So I will go short again around 1880-1920$. Stop loss for me is above 1950 $, but I don't think it will reach it.
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The conference itself is not what's going to push the price up - it's the resulting (positive) media coverage. From the conference threads over in General Discussion, it definitely looks like the media showed up. It'll take a couple of days for their stories to be produced.
There does not need to be new media coverage to push prices up.
The underlying market fundamentals are strong. |
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You are so right..
Bitcoin remains in rally mode, and this has nothing to do with the bitcoin conference.
The technical fundamentals are strong and point to a further rally of bitcoin price
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1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse. It has been true until now that when there has been a downturn investors have cashed out into dollars. But at some point it might not be the case and investors could start cashing out into precious metals. Im always checking the price of gold and silver when the stock markets crash. If they keep going in opposite directions it means the dollar is fucked. I dont think it will happen now, but its very possible at some point during this crisis. |
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Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?
I think rare earth miners will rise much in the long term, when nuclear energy based on thorium becomes a reality. Uranium is needed to initiate the chain reaction, so it may rise too, and probably is very cheap today because of the japanese disaster. See this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rL08J7fDAHe says that thorium is largely produced as a by-product of rare earths but there's no demand for it. |
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Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...
Don't worry, it will turn down hard soonWhy do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?
1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.
2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.
When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?
1) physical Gold which one should own for sure now (i.e. 20%), and buy more i.e when the big correction comes (Gold is probably topping in the next 2 weeks)
2) Uranium (but this is in my p.o.v unethical as it is related to wars, so I dont do it) EDIT: Also Uranium may have further room to the downside until it gets really nasty in the global economy
3) Bitcoins :-) when it is on a metal USB stick :-) |
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Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...
Don't worry, it will turn down hard soonWhy do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?
1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.
2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.
When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years. |
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Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...
Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon |
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Let's wait until we hear some announcements from the conference. I am also curious, but we should be able a day or two..
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This is perfectly fine. Let's continue to watch it.
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And particularly a NASDAQ long only strategy has not a lot of room to rise in the current crisis, particularly not vs. bitcoins if bitcoins stays strong.
That's not a valid analysis of the fund http://www.xidcapital.com/alpha-fund. It does not need 'room to rise' in the same way that a buy-and-hold strategy of the QQQs might. It can profit in a downward or choppy market because it constantly buys and sells stocks and can spend a lot of time in cash. Have a look at the model charts and you can see that although it still experiences drawdown, there have been no losing years. Contrast that with buy-and-hold of the Nasdaq 100 which is actually still in drawdown from 2000. The issue of whether it will perform better than buy-and-hold bitcoin - I have no idea. The risk profiles are entirely different, though. |
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We shared buy signals i) above 10 $, ii) above 20 $ in May/June, which were very helpful. The last buy scenario between 13-14 $ was not yielding bug progress, and was followed with a stop loss reco below 12.5-12.8$.
We then gave a buy zone between 5-5.8 $ and prices fell below 12.5-12.8 $ and hit 5.74$ at the low.
We gave sell signals at i) 31.6 $, ii) below 20$ and iii) the last one was below 12.5-12.8$. Those signals were quite useful.
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Funny how ignorant people attacked the OP for this... Understanding head and shoulders patterns are a prerequisite to trading 101. Unfortunately, this particular bit of knowledge would have been better if it was stated before the pattern finished. Still a bullish trend though.
This is a good way to look at it. I have charted this H&S pattern last week in my bitcoin technical analysis report in the subscriber section, and then subsequently given a BUY rating at 8.4 $. |
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Long term: UP.Mid term: Consolidation from the 31.9 $ all time high.Short term: UP from the 5.74 $ low.Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN. With the expected fall into the 5 - 5.8 $ area, the minimum downside retracement has been reached last week. This could have already been the end of the correction from the all time high of 31.9 $. If this is true, bitcoins could be starting a major rally again which would be important for bitcoin trading. Bitcoin Technical AnalysisWe may be right at the start of a major rally, provided bitcoin will confirm the nascent breakout above the trend channel - as shown on below chart. The short term will remain UP as long as the 5 - 5.8 $ zone holds (red line), and even better, as long as 8.4 $ holds. Momentum (MACD) and relative strength indicators point upwards for the first time since mid June 2011. http://bit.ly/pf9p9f Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical analysis here. Your S3052
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Nothing against your efforts, but I really do not think you can use this model to predict financial markets. Financial markets including bitcoins work irrationally and based upon mass psychology. This analysis is very complex and require the use of other instruments, like technical analysis, indicators, sentiment, wave patterns, etc. on top of mathematical models.
One example are the small ranges you give every day. This works for a while, but then there is a huge breakout which you did not predict. For example in the technical analysis we saw that a break below 12.5-12.9 will quickly lead to 10$ then 5-5.82 $ and then a subsequent rise to at least 10$, which happened almost exactly.
But you did not predict those up to 100% moves.
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There is a very good chance for a rally based on the technical chart pattern. And the decline from the 31.9$ high does not look like a bubble, but rather as a normal correction in a healthy uptrend
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If things get too crazy I suppose we could always fall back on S3052's plan and just go rave instead.  I am getting jealous if your are going to rave. At least please share a video / pics with me. |
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Good luck with that. Don't waste all your money on that short position because you'll regret it. 
I am already +40% in the profits with the leveraged short position I took today. |
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