You know Raul Pal is still on that horse as of today...

I hate to say it because he seems like a decent chap, but i will not cry if he gets wrecked.

Oh.  I am stealing one of these for my twitter profile... whee.

You had not noticed that bitcoin is doing it's swansong today?

Such drama...
Much blood.

It will be, as it always is, same and different, both.

I still think a "supercycle" is possible.  And one scenario I thought about looks just like this a faster bull/bear pattern that shakes even the most ironballs bulls out of the boat.

Or maybe it's just dead.  Could be that too.

I will say an old friend is texting me chiding me for not selling and buying my retirement house.  That's always a good sign, or then again... maybe he is right this time?

I am loving this Das Boot bear vibe...

Yeah.  I do not know how we will ever win that argument.  It is kind of a "had to be there" thing.

They may never know what balls it took to hold through all the swings.  Even though the reason they never bought in was they did not have those balls.

It is comforting that Bitcoin, as inevitable as it is, is just not obvious enough EVEN STILL for the masses to get in and stay in.  It's that adoption graph.  Lots of those folks will be calling us lucky as they buy their first sats to be able to easily pay for their coffee.

I am typing this message on a computer that runs Arch Linux.  Some of my technical friends even will say, man why do you run that off the wall OS?  They do not realize that if they use an android phone, a MAC or ANYTHING on the internet that they TOO are running a *nix OS.

I think bitcoin will be like that too.  Strike is the first hint.  People using bitcoin, but not actually even knowing it...

We are kind of lucky though...

I agree...  But what are we waiting for?  Moon?  

I remember 4ish years ago... when It broke 1k,   I panicked when it dropped back down a little later.  Sold a bunch right at the bottom.  Ended up buying ~90% of it back.

That lesson was expensive, but it seems to have cured me.

It is hard to remember at times like this that Bitcoin really cannot be stopped.  What's happening with China is really really bullish.  And this "bitcoin is too vollitle!!!" stuff?  It's a great disguise for what bitcoin really is.

If it were any more obvious, well it would already be where we want it to be, and lots of us would never have had a chance.  We are experiencing the pain that most people cannot handle, and it will paty off... I mean.. it kind already has, right?

This is what we live through to be able to say:

I know it looks easy in hindsight, but it was hard as hell living through it.

I wish you were right
But we are crossing it now
That's how bitcoin do...


A haiku for this moment... deep breaths my friends.

Don't even talk like that!  Of course it's staying above page parity!

(I hope haha)

I'd be OK with that too.  Maybe even better.  I just want to see them in countries that WANT them.

It is going to become clear sooner that China has made a pretty bad error driving them away.  But I think they are going for their whole CBDC push.

YES!  This.

It is GREAT news.  As is the hash rate plummet.  For the same reasons.  The fact is mining is moving to countries that are more free (still/  hopefully? lol) than China.

I know we have leftists amongst us as well as the libertarians and crypto anarchists.  But governments in the socialist_>communist part of the political spectrum are NOT going to like Bitcoin.  Ever.  Because it takes control away from the state.

The distaste for Bitcoin from the government in the US is different.  There is the portion of governing folks who disapprove of it for the same reasons as China, of course, but there is also the hegemony of being top dog world currency wise.  I am not convinced that the FREEDOM of Bitcoin will be something western governments will like either, but at least it stands a chance here.

I really really look forward to seeing those miners come back online in North America, Central America, Kazakhstan, and other places.

The sides are forming... for the most Epic fight in the history of the world.  It is super unclear now, but BOY are we in for a ride..

Whew.

Dude, your games are epic, and you are a generous soul.  Thanks again.

This is the beauty.  From the beginning we have heard how it would be impossible for the people of earth to effectively open channels since they take not one but two transactions (eventually), and I believe we are going to find ways to do it.  I think Strike is ahead of the game a little.  Frankly enough that we don't really get it.  And another complaint is the aspect of custodial-ness and kyc/aml.  I believe those hurdles will also be cleared by tech being used in interesting ways.

I just hope it's up to the flood that I think is coming.  Using things like WoS are going to spread like wildfire in Central and South America.  And I think many African countries are right behind.

Centralized services like WoS have some advantages because they can be managed by pros, while they have the obvious (and some less so) disadvantages as single points of failure, for example.

What I think is not yet commonly known is a silly little app like WoS is positioning themselves to be the foundation of a multi-billion dollar (and then more) virtual bank.

Visa needs to be very, very, very scared.  And they may end up trying to push legislation that will harm the growth of this, and yet... there is nothing they can do to stop it.

I think the biggest hurdle is UX, but I think lot's of the wallets are starting to handle that.  Strike is a good example in that is give users a LOT of ways to transfer value but staying denominated in Fiat, which for now is going to stay important.

But using Strike to transfer money as well as even to buy bitcoin is underrated as to how it will work in the world.

How many confirmations are needed to send yourself 1mm sats on the LN?

Sorry.  I put this miserable thought in your head!  Lol.

If what he says is true that he got rid of ALL his Bitcoin for BSV can you imagine how he must feel?  I was just bragging on balls of steel for swings, but BSV?

Say he put 1000 bitcoin in.  That would leave him with between 100-250 bitcoin worth at this point.

One of the most important things poker taught me was emotion control.  And just to let things that happen as they happen.

I have friends that "check in" on me every price drop.  They get more emotional about what they think I should feel rather than I. Ha!  

It's all just numbers in the end.

And we all know (as well as we possibly can) where it goes in the end.

I do not see how bitcoin can go to sub 20k.  Too many very big buyers wanting to get in.  And make no mistake.  They are getting in, not on the retail exchanges, but over the counter.

This one as painful to me...  PlanB is hedging his prediction.

I personally think S2F HAS to break, but I would sure rather it break the OTHER way

I actually think LNURL might work for this, but it is also a feature not implemented everywhere.  Possibly as interesting is the identity/2factor types of application this might enable.

This is probably because it is a non-amount invoice and your wallet does not support it, OR because the invoice was already used.

What wallets are you using?

The UX in lightning is going to have to IMPROVE VERY QUICKLY.