Europe's dependence on Russian oil is not as depressing as it is on Russian gas, but there is a nuance. Oil refineries are designed for a certain grade of oil, and you cannot simply replace Russian oil with Arab oil, even if the Arabs are ready to sell it to you. You will have to reconfigure the refinery to a different grade and in some cases it is cheaper to build a new refinery than to reconfigure an old one. Even in the case of a democratic "Latvian mixture" mixing takes place only according to documents, and not physically (otherwise, along with the lack of a discount, a headache for reconfiguration comes as a gift). It is for this reason that Biden runs with a scalded ass to Venezuela and Iran, although the US itself is a major oil producer. It's just that without the addition of a few percent of heavy oil, most US refineries will not be able to operate normally without a dramatic fold drop in productivity. In Europe, in general, the situation is similar, dependence on Russian oil is not too large in volume, but there is nothing to replace it, even if OPEC agrees to increase production, which, in principle, is against their interests.

Summer is the time to replenish underground gas storages, in winter it will be too late to think about it. In addition, only a small part of Russian gas is used for heating houses, industry and power plants need gas regardless of the season.

Of course not, I don't think so. Gas has risen in price by 25% per day on the stock exchange after the cessation of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, Austria agreed to pay for gas in rubles, and Poland (according to rumors) increased the volume of reverse from Germany five times. Europe tried to bluff, but failed. Those who do not want cheap Russian gas will receive expensive democratic gas in reverse from the same Russian pipe.

With oil, it's about the same - whoever doesn't want Russian oil at a discount will get a democratic "Latvian mixture" (with 49% of Russian oil) without a discount.

Yep, but for some reason they call General Dvornikov the "Butcher of Aleppo" and a psychopath. Although he just did his job and left Assad in power when his fate already seemed sealed. Russia does not abandon its allies, regardless of the complexity of the situation - and therefore Russia is now respected in the Arab world. India also remembers how the USSR came to its aid when the whole world supported Pakistan against it. Therefore, Johnson can at least dress up as a clown, India listened to him carefully and took note of Britain's desire to restore trade ties, but refused to impose sanctions against Russia. Therefore, Serbia loves Russia, and also does not impose sanctions, despite the pressure of the European Union.

It really didn’t work out with Poland, how quickly they forgot about Katyn - well, no one really counted on them.

I think Poland is chosen by Europe as the advanced vanguard for reconnaissance in force, to see how serious Russia's intentions are to turn off the gas in case of non-payment. Now Europe has to pass the test of how United it is. If at least one of the EU countries gives up and agrees to buy Russian gas on Putin's terms, the rest of Europe will be able to buy gas through it in reverse, albeit more expensive than under a direct contract with Gazprom, but saving face. If all of Europe can say no, then there will be no more Russian gas in Europe.

С некоторой точки зрения это гибридная война за раздел Европы между США и Россией. Причём есть ощущение, что Путин с Байденом уже обо всём в общих чертах договорились в декабре 2021, а сейчас на Украине чисто разыгрывается спектакль на публику. Спектакль кстати очень интересный, уже два месяца удерживает внимание всего мира. Актёры играют от души, видно что стараются. У меня место в партере в первом ряду, по контрамарке.

Let's assume that Europe will act as a united front and resolutely refuse gas supplies from Russia (which is very doubtful, given the great unevenness in dependence on Russian gas in different European countries, but let's assume). Is it really necessary for Russia to completely replace the lost European market? Generally speaking, no, because the resulting shortage of gas supplies will provoke a further increase in gas prices throughout the world, and Russia will be able to receive the same money by supplying a smaller amount of gas. Given Russia's chronic budget surpluses and the very conservative budgeted oil and gas prices, Russia could be quite comfortable even if it loses significantly in energy export revenues or if it provides a large discount on them. Therefore, my opinion is that the rejection of Russian gas is economic suicide for Europe and an unfortunate temporary logistical discomfort for Russia.

Well, it seems that these are not very good prospects for Ukraine. However, it seems that yesterday the intensity of artillery fire from Russia sharply decreased, the period of intensive softening of the fortified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass lasted about a week. I can assume that a significant part of the centers of fire resistance identified by reconnaissance has already been destroyed there and the preparatory part of the battle for Donbass has already ended.

It doesn't matter how well Ukraine prepared for a Russian invasion if it missed a surprise blow. Although TwitchySeal believes that Ukraine won near Kyiv and kicked Russia's ass there, putting it to flight. This feature of Ukrainian propaganda does not surprise me; it even declared the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Mariupol as a victory.

200,000 soldiers is dramatically small to start an operation; according to NATO intelligence estimates, the minimum number required to control only the eastern part of Ukraine is 400,000 soldiers. Russia began the operation with half the resources in terms of manpower, dispersed in addition to the East, also in the North and South. I think that's why NATO considered Putin's statements a bluff, NATO intelligence had accurate data, but made incorrect conclusions from them.

Mariupol suffered significantly in urban battles, it's true. The Azovstal plant cannot be restored, blast furnaces cannot be turned off and turned back on like a gas burner - this is a continuous cycle enterprise. As soon as the blast furnaces at Azovstal were stopped, there was no longer much point in keeping its walls intact. It seems that now 240-mm mortars "Tulip" are working there. Everything else will be restored. Mariupol has a very important strategic importance in this operation for a number of reasons, so I think the victims were not in vain.

You have an interesting interpretation of historical events, but I do not agree with it.

History is written by the winners, not the losers. This story is not over yet, so any conclusions are at least premature.

Formally, no one has canceled the covid-19 pandemic in Russia. It is not the size of the table that is curious, but what Putin told him, regarding the decision of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo's right to self-determination, without permission from the capital - that this episode created a precedent, on the basis of which the independence of Donbass from Kyiv could be quite legitimate. It seems that Guterres did not find what to answer to this argument of Putin.

You are right, although the rhetoric of the Central Bank of Russia has softened significantly in relation to cryptocurrencies (against the background of the initial intentions to completely ban them), but Russia's interest in cryptocurrencies lies more in the plane of mining - as a good opportunity to utilize excess energy resources than as a tool to circumvent sanctions. It seems that Russia has learned to live well under the conditions of permanent sanctions, which intensified in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, including how to circumvent them.

I deleted my previous post because it looks like it was a bit premature and there was no confirmation from Gazprom. But since you managed to answer it, so be it, especially since it looks like the information about the termination of gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract is correct. Bulgaria also received a notice of gas shutdown due to lack of payment in rubles today.

The "full picture" is that Russia will no longer supply its resources without payment, which Russia is free to dispose of. Payment for gas in rubles is not some kind of April joke of Gazprom.

Europe wants to continue to receive resources from Russia, but that Russia does not receive money for this. This desire of Europe is understandable, but it is somewhat naive - in real life this does not happen, in order to get something you need you have to pay for it. Europe's attempts to refuse the supply of resources from Russia are demonstrative and generally untenable, it's like if you have running water at home, but you say - I'd rather switch to bottled water supplies than pay the bill for tap water, because I don't like the supplier tap water. And if there is not enough bottled water to take a shower every day, then I will wash less often, just to harm Putin. This would be a funny joke if it weren't for the sad truth.

Are you seriously? The West imposed a bunch of sanctions, froze all accounts in dollars, euros, pounds and Swiss francs that it could reach, arrested yachts, real estate, etc - and after that you still think that people with money and power in Russia have not completely lost interest in green paper? Well, I don't even know.


To health. If the house stands on the foundation of trust and trust is undermined, the house collapses. At least in real life it happens, in fantasy you can continue to think that everything is fine.

Some kind of two-level scheme was announced there today, but I have not yet understood the essence.

With China, Russia has already tested the system of mutual settlements and has completely switched to national currencies in mutual trade.

I think this forecast has already lost its relevance. When I did it, Kadyrov's Chechen regiment was standing near Kyiv, waiting for Putin's signal to attack. Then he was transferred to Mariupol and they, along with the marines and militiamen of Donbass, took Mariupol. In urban battles, this is perhaps the most formidable weapon of Russia, hot bearded mountaineers who shout "Allah Akbar!" after each RPG shot or grenade throw, and they feel like fish in water under bullets. Now the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" have been transferred from Mariupol to the East of Ukraine and, together with the Lugansk militia, are cleaning up the city of Rubizhne in the LPR.

I will refrain from making new forecasts regarding the timing or even the likely directions of strikes, it is difficult for me to predict the logic of the combat general who command this operation. As before, I am sure that Ukraine has no chances in an armed confrontation with Russia, and that over time, the negotiating position of Ukraine is steadily deteriorating, time works for Russia.

I don't understand what you are trying to prove to me? That only the United States or NATO countries have the exclusive right to conduct peacekeeping or special military operations, including without the sanction of the UN Security Council, invading the territory of sovereign states? (There are many examples, the most recent being Turkey's recent invasion of Northern Iraq, which is ongoing right now). Or that Russia has not made enough diplomatic efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict within the framework of the Minsk agreements?

Link.

The genius of Putin's strategy is that he put all his cards on the table and openly said: "Here is a red line, do not cross it." And even then, no one in the West believed him, everyone thought that he was bluffing, that Russia did not have enough strength to realize the threat. Big mistake.

Almost. In Ukraine, there was a civil war in the Donbass for eight years, and then Dobnass asked Russia to recognize its independence and help deal with this protracted history. Thus, Russia has sent its troops to the territory of Ukraine and has its military presence there, without the approval of the UN Security Council.

Not necessary. It can be a peacekeeping mission, or a counter-terrorist operation, or a special military operation, there are more than one options. But what you are right about is that Ukraine can use any legal means to destroy any legitimate targets. The use of illegal means and/or illegal purposes is a war crime.

You have a logical error, and I pointed it out in the previous paragraph. It will be easier for you to understand it using the example of any peacekeeping mission with the approval of the UN Security Council - this is not a war, but peacekeepers sometimes shoot. It can also be viewed as a hybrid information-economic proxy war between the US and Russia for spheres of influence in Europe with a battlefield on the territory of Ukraine. But for my personal safety, I will call this a military special operation.


Call it what you will, but remember that war crimes are war crimes and will have to be answered.

Usually in each of my posts there is at least one link as a proof. But your statements are just unfounded blah blah blah with a bunch of logical errors, as if you have burnt porridge in your head instead of brains. Well, which one of us is a bot?

Ukraine has been actively preparing for its attack on the Donbass all winter. There was a lot of talk about the possibility of a Russian invasion, but however, it turned out to be a complete surprise for Ukraine, NATO intelligence simply overslept it. The genius of Putin's strategy lies precisely in the fact that, according to the military canons current as of February 2022, it was technically impossible - too small forces participated in Russian military exercises near the border with Ukraine and NATO intelligence did not take this threat seriously. This gave Russia at the start of the operation the staggering advantage of a surprise strike from which Ukraine still seems to be in shock.

As Francis Scott Fitzgerald said, "The mark of a first-class brain is the ability to keep two mutually exclusive thoughts in mind at the same time without losing the ability to think". There are rumors that I am the best analyst of the Russian locale, but this is not certain.

Well, why didn't they do it? Why didn't they decide to de-blockade Mariupol or to strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the East in order to avoid closing the boiler? The Russians left the north, but the grouping of the Ukrainian army near Kyiv remained, what are they doing there? Eliminate the imaginary Russian threat, as if there were not enough real threats in the east and south?

It seems that success in the north could not be sustained with the approach of the spring thaw and the growth of leaves on the trees. The risk of being cut off from supplies and the complete loss of the northern group outweighed the risk of a possible provocation at Chernobyl. Today, IAEA specialists are to arrive there and assess the situation on the spot. I hope Ukraine has enough remnants of common sense not to turn its country into a radioactive garbage dump, will see.

I think Putin is quite healthy, perhaps at that moment he was more tense than usual.

Putin’s famous long table, which has already become a meme, was used by him only for face-to-face dialogue with those politicians who refused to take a test for covid-19 to Putin’s doctors (apparently out of fear of giving Russia their DNA sample). This is a common precaution during a pandemic, if you have not forgotten about this word. Politicians who agree to and successfully pass this test are much closer to Putin, including direct physical contact through a handshake when appropriate.

You may be very surprised, but the Minister of Defense of Russia, General of the Army Shoigu, did not serve military service and does not have a military education. Perhaps his public appearance in civilian clothes means that the military operations of the Russian army in Ukraine are now rather led by General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov. Although Putin is still the supreme commander in chief, and Shoigu is still the minister of defense, of course. But Dvornikov seems to have a big operational carte blanche and he is the one who draws arrows on the map.

Mariupol is a show of force. The attackers' lack of numerical superiority, the use by Ukraine of dominant heights in urban development and civilians as a human shield - did not stop the Chechen assault battalions and the people's militia of Donbass. The city will be restored, with the exception of Azovstal.

If there is an order to clean up Nikolaev, Kharkov, Odessa, Lvov or Kyiv, they will do it again, now you know about it and all of Ukraine now knows and all of the World now knows. Russians fight not by numbers, but by skill, and for them there are no impossible combat missions.

You are right, a real civil war has been going on in Ukraine for 8 years, the genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass. Russia is not at war, she came to stop it. I call a spade a spade.

In the meantime, the EU is censoring the internet lol. I hope no one gets arrested for reading my post. Take care of yourself there in the stronghold of the victorious democracy.

ps A video bonus of the military chronicle from Andrey Filatov, now he is wounded in the hospital and uploads footage from the last days of the cleansing of Mariupol to the network. Here is the work of the rather exotic Russian wunderwaffe UR-77 of the engineering troops, which is usually used to clear a passage in minefields. One shot contains about 800kg of explosives, a harsh thing.

Or maybe you just have a lot of shit in your head?  

No matter how many tanks you have, you can't take with 50,000 soldiers a city of 3 million that doesn't want to fly the white flag. Even now, Russia does not have a numerical advantage in Ukraine, this operation is technically impossible - and therefore it will be included in military textbooks. I have already said above that the attack from the north was a diversionary tactical maneuver - in order to pin down the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kyiv, which now cannot help in the Donbass, and in order to quickly take control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and exclude possible provocations by Ukraine with radioactive contamination of the area.

No one is bombing your cities, calm down already. The only object that was bombed was the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, until the moment the Azov commander said that there were civilians in the bunker. During the two months of the operation, about 40 air bombs were dropped on Ukraine - all on Azovstal. I'm already tired of our conversation today, I'll go to sleep.

You don't follow the dynamics of events very well. It seems that 80+% of all Ukrainian tanks and planes were destroyed in the first few days of the operation by massive missile strikes throughout Ukraine, when these tanks and planes were parked in rows. (If Putin had immediately ordered to hit the army barracks with missiles, 80% of the manpower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have been destroyed in the first days, but this did not happen). After the dispersal of tanks, they have already ceased to be a target for missile strikes, with rare exceptions, because it is difficult to hit a single tank with a rocket and it is stupid to waste a rocket on a single tank. Do you understand anything about the military or just like to press buttons on the keyboard with a smart look?

This is not my logic, there are some established rules for declaring war - for example, you need to hand over the appropriate note to the embassy, and then the war began. And after the signing of the peace treaty, the war ended. The last war on planet Earth was declared by Russia to Japan in August 1945 and it has not yet ended, because Russia and Japan have not yet signed a peace treaty. Therefore, do not throw around the word "war" in vain, not every armed conflict is a war.

You don't seem to understand this. Russia is not at war with Ukraine, this is a military special operation. If Russia had really declared war on Ukraine, it would have ended a month ago. There is no martial law in Russia, there is no mass mobilization, normal peaceful life is going on in all regions, with the exception of three regions bordering Ukraine, where a yellow level of terrorist threat has been declared. I do not know with whom Ukraine is fighting there, but Russia did not come to this war. And be glad it is.

Destroyed Ukrainian tanks are now rarely included in the reports of the Russian Defense Ministry. It seems that recently there was an attempt to break through in the Kharkov region on 10 tanks, 8 of them were destroyed. And so I don’t even remember that in military reports recently it was about tanks. A tank is an inconvenient target for a missile strike, I think they are more often burned from Ka-52 Alligator helicopters during combat missions.

I think we are both telling the truth, but looking from different angles. The DPR statement of April 25, this is after Russia took control of the 65th arsenal near Kharkov (which is the largest in Europe, by the way). Plus, in the East, Ukraine, for objective reasons, has long had some difficulties with the logistics for transporting ammunition to the front line, I think fresh batches of weapons from the West settle mainly in the West or in the Center of Ukraine. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made large stocks of ammunition directly in their fortified areas in the Donbass in winter. Earlier, I saw a video with a fighter of the people's militia of Donbass, he said that they attack lightly, using mostly captured ammunition.

Take care of yourself, puppy.

ps The confession of a captive officer of the Marine Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Mariupol that he raped a woman with a Ukrainian passport in front of her husband, whom he killed with his gun in the process. Demilitarized and denazified by Russia.

It's amazing how low your level of critical thinking is if you believe the publications in the yellow press with reference to the words of a repatriate from Russian captivity, whom it is quite possible that the special services managed to turn over before his exchange.

Of course, I am also not completely free from the influence of propaganda. For example, I recently reported on four destroyed railway bridges across the Dnieper, and it looks like three of them turned out to be false, or even all four. I admit, this is the rare case when I am glad to be wrong.

ps Lol, this is a beautiful Arabic trolling


Germany is now in a very difficult life situation. The entire power of German industry relies on Russian gas and Russian raw materials as a foundation, and the “greens” have more political weight, which, to please the United States (for which the energy alliance of Germany and Russia poses a serious strategic threat, and the Germany-Russia-China triple alliance in general nightmare) have been pushing in Germany for a decade a completely ridiculous policy of economic self-destruction. All this against the backdrop of US military bases in Germany. I don’t know how Scholz is still able to withstand the incredible pressure on him, that’s for sure someone you won’t envy. Germany is not very free, apparently it is the main sponsor of this banquet, and against its will.

Danilchenko is on duty in Melitopol. And Fedorov now seems to be in Kyiv, recovering from Russian captivity and composing fairy tales about the heroic struggle of patriots against the invaders where he has long been gone. And the yellow press like AiF willingly broadcasts his stories. Keep believing that you are not being deceived by Ukrainian propaganda.

You have a distorted concept of civilian infrastructure. It is difficult to do without destruction at all when hundreds of thousands of armed people shoot at each other. But in general, the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is now surprisingly in good condition.