The embargo against Russian oil will kick in only by the end of this year. It will be interesting to see whether they will be able to maintain the budget surplus then. And there is some disturbing development from India. The Americans claim that the Indian government has given them assurances regarding the price cap on Russian crude. If they do that, then China will remain as the sole major importer of Russian crude. As of now, India imports around 1 million barrels of crude per month from Russia.
The accumulated funds of the National Welfare Fund make it possible to compensate for the budget deficit up to 20% within three years without the risk of complete depletion of financial reserves. The financial system of Russia has a large enough margin of safety to feel confident even with sharp changes in market conditions. |
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For people without the defeat of the mentality of propaganda: In Russia today, in order to block gas supplies to the EU, gas is flared, because. it just has nowhere to go. You ask "how is this nowhere to go" - I answer - from the largest gas supplier in the EU ... STOP ... Not the largest anymore, and Russia has also lost this status  now Norway is the largest gas supplier to the EU, and will increase supplies the next 2-3 years to level the economic terrorism of Russia So, in the most miserable country, among the countries that supply gas, the gas transmission network is primitive and cannot redirect excess gas, for example, to China. And also this miserable country does not have enough storage for gas. And they are technologically backward, so the conservation of wells is a synonym for them - to destroy gas wells, because. on their own, without Western technology, they will not be able to de-mothball the wells, and no one will sell technology to terrorists! You do not understand anything in the technologies of oil and gas production. Even from an oil well, it is possible to reduce the oil intake in a fairly wide range without the need for costly and time-consuming conservation of the well. And with gas it’s even easier - they screwed on the valve and the gas stopped flowing, they opened the valve and the gas flows again. That is why gas is burned in gas fields, on a huge scale! Please do not confuse it with the painful fantasies of the "cheers of the patriots of Russia", where they are trying to pass it off as technological torches that actually burn part of the gas as part of the production process. Let's just estimate the scale of flared gas? So: one "Russian cheer patriot" wants to say, and he means only one station (he doesn't know about the others), that 4.34 million cubic meters are burned at the Gazprom LNG Portovaya station. m of fuel daily simply according to the technical process! The plant is located near the compressor station at the beginning of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. Gas from here went to Germany, but in mid-July, supplies were temporarily stopped. The cost of flared gas is about 10 million dollars a day. or $300 million per MONTH. Or 3.6 billion dollars a year! Does the truth ring true about "technological incineration"?! Do you like to count money in someone else's pocket? And what else is left for you to do, living in a bankrupt country?  |
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Should peak production of oil have been reached. It could be defined as a deflationary commodity. Similar to bitcoin's reward halving. Every successive year would be defined by average decreases in production. Accompanied by rising scarcity of resources.
Now Russia produces more than 10 million barrels of oil per day, slightly ahead of Saudi Arabia in this indicator and second only to the United States. I don't understand what kind of decline in production you are talking about when the country is in the top 3 in the world ranking (in second place)? In addition to the fact that oil and gas production in Russia has ALREADY decreased, this is reflected even in official statistics, there is another side to this coin. Even if the level of oil production is maintained, Russia still does not receive the profit it was counting on. Imagine - not everything is as joyful as propaganda is trying with all its might to drive into the heads of the inhabitants of Russia Let me explain: Ruble / dollar exchange rate. I’ve said it more than once, now I won’t say exactly to the penny, but the budget was drawn up on the assumption that oil costs (of course, the most poor quality is Urals), something like 62 dollars per barrel, and a dollar costs about 85 rubles. What do we have for today? A dollar costs about 60 rubles, a barrel of Urals costs about 80+ dollars per barrel. It seems like it's time to say - "hey dude, everything is so cool, why are you winding around here ?!", right? But as they say, the devil is in the details! The problem here is where it is the price "here and now". And contract deliveries come with significant discounts. It comes to the EU at a discount of up to about 25%, but the surplus of oil that Russia does not know where to put, China and India are buying up with a 40% discount! And it's still the EU has not imposed an embargo on Russian oil tankers! BUT, another trifle - tanker transportation for Russia has risen in price, due to problems with insurance of tanker transportation! In total, in reality: 1. The volume of production has really decreased 2. The cost of oil, although higher than budgeted, but this high price is leveled by the artificially low dollar exchange rate in Russia 3. Russia sells most of its oil at a 25% discount 4. Russia is FORCED to sell a significant part of oil at a 40% discount 5. After the EU abandons Russian oil, the discount will become even higher, and budget revenues will naturally be significantly lower. I don’t know where you get all this nonsense from, but just in case, I advise you not to miss the scheduled intake of haloperidol. The cost of a barrel of Ural oil is now $83. The dollar is in a very comfortable corridor for Russia and now costs 60 rubles. Russia's budget for 2022 is based on the assumption that oil costs $46.6 per barrel. According to the results of seven months, the budget surplus amounted to 482 billion rubles (revenues amounted to 15.777 trillion rubles, expenses were executed by 15.295 trillion rubles). Let me repeat, if you don't understand, in the first seven months of the year, Russia has a budget surplus of almost half a trillion rubles, against the backdrop of unprecedented economic sanctions and additional spending on a military special operation in Ukraine. These are facts, as opposed to your wet fantasies. Russia lives within its means and earns more than it spends. And this is what the entire civilized world, mired in debt, should learn from her. |
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I'll tell you a secret - in fact, the whole world is indebted to each other, and "to that uncle" The level of debt is not a one-size-fits-all indicator. For example, we take the United States - domestic debt - more expensive than half of the world! And the external one - with the cost as the second half of the world! And nothing - the leading economy, politics, the army and much more. Saudi Arabia - 150,000 million in external debt, and feel great with the highest standard of living! Now about greatness - well, there are no questions with the greatness of the United States. But why did you decide that Russia is a great country - this is the question, most likely without a logical answer, no offense! A terrorist country, a loser country, a pathetic likeness of North Korea, but what is great here!? Well, in essence the topic: "If Germany and France want to be large industrial countries in Europe, then they have 2 options: to take cheap raw materials and electricity in Russia or try to become energy independent, and build nuclear power plants, develop the coal industry and other non-environmentally friendly industries. " And tell me, why did you get the idea that raw materials are only in Russia, and that in Russia it is cheap? The fits of hysteria of the Kremlin dwarf showed that economic terrorism is a common thing for Russia, and it will set prices as it wants. And if Britain, the USA and part of Europe had not taken up the matter now, the Kremlin ghouls would have already poisoned everyone in the EU against Russian gas with a "newcomer"! The problem is that "raw materials are available only in Russia, and only in Russia they are cheap! If you study the history of the formation of the oil and gas market in Europe, you will be surprised how, since the 50-60s of the last century, the USSR "invested" in bribing state officials and "West Berlin", and France and Italy and many others. It is the corrupt monopolization of the industry of some countries that has led to the current situation! There are no cheap resources from Russia - there are corrupt politicians, corruption, and a lot of interesting but not yet published facts for the public , about some personalities from the very top of the political Olympus of Europe in the second half of the 20th century. Now for Europe, even in Russia, there are no more cheap raw materials and energy. Say thanks to the Poles, who two years ago won a lawsuit against Gazprom in order to receive gas at a spot price, and not at the price of long-term contracts. After that, the spot gas price was very low for a while and the Poles made a short-term profit from the court decision, but now the situation has changed. Only Serbia in Europe has a good long-term contract with Gazprom (about $400 per thousand cubic meters of gas), the rest of the countries are forced to buy gas at a spot price, which has already fixed itself at over $3,000 per thousand cubic meters. A dozen large European fertilizer plants have already been forced to stop their work and this is just the beginning. By winter, the entire energy-intensive industry of the European Union will be completely paralyzed. And I see no chance to avoid this scenario. |
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You suggest to France build nuclear power plants. Jesus Christ, google it before, we're probably the leader worldwide with the nuclear plants.
And something you should be aware of before commenting. France buys only 15% of its gas from foreign countries. Russia is not the only seller on the marketplace. Our reserves are 100% full, and we replaced Russia is we want to buy more
France made an impressive breakthrough in nuclear power after the oil crisis in the 1970s. Almost half a century has passed since then, and the current state of nuclear energy in France is far from optimal - many old reactors that have already exhausted their resources (several of them need to be decommissioned immediately or as soon as possible), loss of influence in Africa (in particular in Niger, from where France imports uranium) and, most importantly, a dramatic loss of engineering competencies (read the history of the construction of the Olkiluoto-3 nuclear power plant in Finland, this is the epic fiasco of AREVA). French nuclear power is dead, or in need of a deep reset. |
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This is cheap propaganda shit. Associated gas flaring is a common practice in oil production, and flaring is a common practice in LPG plants (this is a kind of safety valve, gas is flared so as not to poison all living things and so that there is no explosion threat). But in Europe, of course, asses are burning from this against the backdrop of a shortage of gas supplies and skyrocketing prices. It happens.
For you Russians, there is nothing else but propaganda, you don't even call war by its right name, even though you occupied 20% of the territory of a country and killed thousands of people whom you call Nazis because they defend their homes and lives. I know very well how LNG works and what has to be done for safety, but this is no ordinary operation - and as far as I'm concerned, you can burn all the gas you have if it makes you happy. The other day I cooked chicken broth according to the recipe of my friend, he is a chef in a restaurant. Five hours on a slow fire, there is no gas meter in my technologically backward home, so gas is unlimited. Before the special operation in the West, they thought that Russia was a gas station country, but now it turned out that Europe is a technological appendage of Russia. Move to live in Russia, we have gas and electricity at an affordable price. I am perfectly fine where I am now, and I will gladly pay any price if it is for a noble cause. In addition, most of the EU countries are on Russia's blacklist, so we are not welcome to try your hospitality, and as far as I can see, the Russians are fleeing to the west en masse because Putler is looking for new cannon fodder for the war. For you Europeans, there is nothing else but propaganda. There is no mobilization in Russia, professionals and volunteers are fighting in Ukraine. |
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I think the root of Europe's climate problem is the weakening of the Gulf Stream. The weakness of the warm current makes the climate less mild and more continental. If this version is workable, after an abnormally hot and dry summer, Europe will face a frosty and harsh winter.
You should take a look at the prognostic models for the winter of 2022/23 and you will see that most of the models point to temperatures that will not be extremely low and that the warm autumn will last until November. We'll see. Of course, this does not fit into what would suit Russian politics and some kind of perverse feeling of satisfaction that Europeans are freezing while you burn tens of millions of dollars worth of gas every day that you do not want to sell to the Nazis in the West. Russia is burning an estimated $10 million worth of natural gas a day near its border with Finland, analysts say, even as it threatens to push Europe into a winter energy crisis by restricting exports to Germany and other countries.
State gas giant Gazprom is burning off, or "flaring," about 4.34 million cubic meters of gas a day at a new liquified natural gas (LNG) facility, according to analysis of heat levels and satellite data by Rystad Energy. This is cheap propaganda shit. Associated gas flaring is a common practice in oil production, and flaring is a common practice in LPG plants (this is a kind of safety valve, gas is flared so as not to poison all living things and so that there is no explosion threat). But in Europe, of course, asses are burning from this against the backdrop of a shortage of gas supplies and skyrocketing prices. It happens. Move to live in Russia, we have gas and electricity at an affordable price. |
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The RF has a big problem that is creating a social issue in the RF and a spilling around like a massive hen poop pool spilling. It is called and oversized and poorly led army. Countries with large armies eventually become armies with a country attached and that means that their only purpose becomes waging war.
This is clearly the case in the RF. I am more and more getting the feeling that there is a disconnect between the "civil" authority (Adolf Putin) and the pyschos that lead the army. At this moment, the influence of the military in the RF means that the civil society has nothing to say on what happens and even becomes a tool to support the army.
This is similar to Prussia before WWI. For those who do not know, it does not end up well.
What the hell is in your head? Russia has a very compact army for such a vast territory. Even the recent increase in strength by 137 thousand people does not make the Russian army bloated (in general, there is a fairly plausible version that this increase will occur entirely due to the inclusion of the LDNR people's militia in the Russian army). Relative to the total population, Ukraine has a larger army than Russia. ps An example of a bloated army is Korea, both northern and southern. He's joking because UK along with USA cheers not only for as many Ukrainians and Russians deaths, they like weakening EU, too.
Brexit didn't happen randomly
On a purely human level, I feel more sorry for the dead Ukrainian reservists who are thrown to the front as poorly trained cannon fodder than for Russian soldiers, among whom there are now many volunteers. |
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If anything, this will make the general public angry for insulting their intelligence. Doubtful. Most people just believe it when government tells them there's no recession. And that's the intention of course: if people believe there's a recession, they'll spend less money. I think it's normal and natural for the average person to spend less money in troubled times and it's hard to blame them for that. The task and responsibility of the state is to increase spending on large-scale infrastructure projects in order to compensate for the decline in spending by private households and so that the economy does not slide into a depressive self-rewinding spiral. But if the state is already mired in debt over the years of life with a chronic budget deficit, then this is really a problem. |
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Should peak production of oil have been reached. It could be defined as a deflationary commodity. Similar to bitcoin's reward halving. Every successive year would be defined by average decreases in production. Accompanied by rising scarcity of resources.
Now Russia produces more than 10 million barrels of oil per day, slightly ahead of Saudi Arabia in this indicator and second only to the United States. I don't understand what kind of decline in production you are talking about when the country is in the top 3 in the world ranking (in second place)? |
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To address the issue. We must first defined and comprehend the issue. Somewhere along the way. It seems that people became thoroughly convinced they do not need to understand or define issues to solve them. And so the next few years will certainly be interesting. It will be interesting to see what solutions people come up with.
I think the root of Europe's climate problem is the weakening of the Gulf Stream. The weakness of the warm current makes the climate less mild and more continental. If this version is workable, after an abnormally hot and dry summer, Europe will face a frosty and harsh winter. |
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Do you know what Russia is doing now with these millions of cubic kilometers of gas? No, you don't know... She BURNS them! Stupidly, primitively burns, to its own detriment, but with the hope of spoiling the EU! This is the greatness of Russia The problem is that this gas, these volumes of gas, Russia will never return, will not make a profit, but will only once again prove that Russia's "moves" are pure idiocy and terrorism But this will soon come to an end, very soon! Are you talking about it? This is typical stupid western propaganda. This is the flare stack, which is necessary for the safety of production, burning discharges from safety valves. When gas is produced in Norway or somewhere else, such flare stacks also burn there. This is necessary in order not to poison the environment in case of a possible leakage of natural gas. Also, when oil is extracted in remote areas, associated gas is flared, because it is unprofitable to collect and transport it, plus for the same safety reasons. BP and Shell also do this. Also in Russia, three and a half thousand memorials of the eternal flame are continuously burning in memory of the victory over fascism in World War II. But what kind of sadness is this for you, little Russophobic asshole? |
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I do not expect much of an answer, but just to humour you, direct and clear: RF cannot defend the land that has stolen from Ukraine and is shameful to see how a theoretically superior army cannot achieve anything but marginal gains during the last months. Hope that is clear enough.
I have already spoken here many times and I will say it again - time works for Russia. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not carried out a single successful offensive in six months, Ukraine simply does not have the opportunity for offensive operations. Russia can and knows how to attack, but saves a limited human resource. The situation now seems to be a stalemate, but the approach of winter plays into the hands of Russia. August is still on the calendar, and Europe is already in hysterics. I'm glad you're able to joke under these circumstances. |
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You're mistaken trade with production. The source you're mentioning says clearly it's 30% of the trade but it's only 16% out of the top 9 wheat producers considering the Eu is the second largest as a whole with 126,658,950 tons, so bigger than Russia and Ukraine combined, and their actual size is less than 8% considering global porduction. Also, rather than clickbait titles about famine and the end of the world https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-farm-association-expects-bigger-winter-wheat-cropGermany's 2022 winter wheat crop will increase to about 21.8 million tonnes from 21.0 million tonnes last year, the DBV association of German farmers said on Tuesday. The hot weather was an advantage in some areas, allowing a rapid completion of harvesting of up to three weeks earlier than usual, the association said.
The harvest of grains of all types is expected to increase to about 43 million tonnes, up about 2% from last year, DBV said. Oh crap, the end of the world and world famine won't come this year either, what a letdown for some grave robbers! The European Union has more than twice the population of Russia and Ukraine combined. That is why the European Union produces a lot, but exports relatively little. |
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Хвостатый, просто вас троллят с курением в неположенном месте  Все кроме вас долбоёбов, всё понимают  Гадить исподтишка и вслух отрицать свою причастность - это обычная ссыкливая трусость. И кроме вас долбоёбов, все всё понимают. |
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The increase in the key rate was carried out as part of the fight against inflation, but the problem for the euro is that it does not work that way. If you want to curb inflation, you must first raise the key rate sharply to a level above the current inflation rate In the media, they call the increase to 0.00% a really strong effort to fight inflation. That says it all, it's ridiculous! What else is there to do but believe in the power of verbal interventions? A sharp increase in the key rate to the level of inflation will be a disaster for Greece and Italy in particular and for the European Union as a whole. |
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Do not call this "terrorist attack".
"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck". |
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The increase in the key rate was carried out as part of the fight against inflation, but the problem for the euro is that it does not work that way. If you want to curb inflation, you must first raise the key rate sharply to a level above the current inflation rate, and then implement a series of key rate cuts to stimulate the economy. And if you smoothly raise the key rate by a value that is obviously an order of magnitude smaller than the current inflation rate, then you only stimulate stagflation, that is, inflation growth against the backdrop of a decline in business activity. You don't need to graduate from the Higher School of Economics to understand this. |
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The topic has become too boring for me personally for at least a month, it does not deserve daily close attention.
Of course it's boring. Your fascist state continues its glorious genocidal traditions... nothing new. 22 dead in a missile attack on a train station. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine stop hiding behind civilians as a human shield, there will be fewer civilian casualties. It is great that you do not want to pay attention to "accidents", maybe the RF chief psychos are following your advice.
I don't understand hints in a non-native language. Be direct about what you mean if you expect to get a straight to the point answer. If we are talking about Ukrainian sabotage in Crimea, then each of them only strengthens the label of a terrorist state in Ukraine. Keep up the good work and soon even the most Russophobic Western curators will turn their backs on Ukraine. ps Meanwhile, the activity of the Russian army from the Donbass, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions also expanded to the Mykolaiv region. |
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Является ли Украина (нынешний режим) террористическим государством?
Украина активно использует террористические методы, но я бы не назвал её террористическим государством. Всё же террористы обычно находят в себе смелость брать ответственность за совершённые теракты - и это выгодно отличает их от нынешнего режима на Украине. |
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