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Meanwhile, Putin visited the liberated Mariupol today on an unannounced visit (and yesterday he was in Sevastopol at the celebration of the 9th anniversary of the reunification of Crimea with Russia), watched how the city was being restored, and paid special attention to the Mariupol Philharmonic. The building has been completely restored and soon there will be a public trial of the Nazis of Azov, who were taken prisoner during the assault on Azov Steel in May last year.
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What I am particularly interested in is whether a bank will appear in the EU that will be in trouble, because Switzerland is in Europe, but is not part of the EU or the eurozone.
Potentially problematic banks in the Eurozone - Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Credit Lyonnais. At the same time, one must understand that there is no bank in the world that is able to withstand a massive influx of depositors who want to cash out their deposits here and now. It's just that the existing architecture of the banking system does not imply full provision of depositors' funds with the bank's own capital. Therefore, the stability of the financial system in the Eurozone largely depends on the ability of the ECB to extinguish the panic with verbal interventions and prompt provision of additional liquidity to banks. Of course, in this case, many previous efforts to combat inflation will be crossed out. |
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~snip~
I read something about it, but I must admit that I was not fully aware of the extent of the damage suffered by the bank due to their decision to freeze Russian money. Obviously, this "neutrality" has its limits, and while for some such a move is logical, for them, from a strictly business perspective, it was a bad decision. I am not aware of whether CS is the only one that has this "problem" when it comes to Russian money, or whether some other banks in Switzerland have similar problems that have not surfaced yet. According to the FT, the outflow of funds from Credit Suisse reached $10.8 billion a day. The allocated credit line will not be enough for a month, the fate of the bank with 167 years of history will be decided tomorrow (and it will probably be voluntarily-compulsorily sold to UBS under a state bank guarantee with a total reorganization and dismissal of tens of thousands of employees). |
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I am always against ChatGPT and OpenAI because of the disadvantages they expose humans to, but this is new, if ChatGPT can find bugs and threats in the system then it is a very wonderful tool, I will change my mind about ChatGPT if this is very true.
The reason why I am against this technology is because of how this will make some people useless, unable to work, cheat and do some bad things using the tools, I got to fight for my people too, imagine you are from a home of a university teacher, both mother, and father.
Try to think about it in this aspect. A few years ago, cryptocurrencies made an impressive breakthrough in the democratization of investment. Now we are seeing an equally impressive breakthrough in the democratization of content creation from the side of neural networks. For example, on my home computer, among other things, there is a local instance of the Stable Diffusion neural network. I haven't created an Avatar-type movie with it yet, but hypothetically it's not technically impossible. There is quite a lot of work and calculations to be done, but in principle it seems that I can do it alone, without a team of hundreds of people and without a budget of hundreds of millions of dollars. A talented programmer no longer needs an expensive team and effort to coordinate it when he has access to ChatGPT. And so on. There is a social and ethical side to the problem, because hundreds of thousands of mediocre programmers have already lost their jobs. But this is not a reason to try to stop progress, in the end, the positive role of the state may manifest itself here, of course, if it chooses to save people, not banks, during the next crisis. |
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GPT was invented by people; does anyone think that AI will one day be able to win over the mind of a person? If someone has created a smart GPT chat, then there is sure to be another who can be smarter. And it will be a person. Machines should serve people, not the other way around. It is a mistake to think that one day people will be able to entrust everything to machines. There are already two different opinions about the usefulness of GPT. And besides his unique abilities, there are a bunch of bugs that he can't get around.
ChatGPT is a tool, very powerful and quite universal. Like any other tool, he has his own restrictions, in the sense that this is not a magic wand, not a panacea, and not even a silver bullet. Separate admiration is deserved by researchers who are looking for these restrictions, as well as ways of their possible bypass. However, now it is an extremely powerful working tool that can be found a lot of useful practical applications. Damn it, this thing easily passes the Turing test! In the sense that you cannot reliably determine whether you are reading the text written by a person, or an generated machine. And this is only the very beginning of the fascinating path. Recently, the dumps of the neural network Facebook Llam, which can be launched locally on an ordinary home computer (if he has enough RAM) appeared. It seems that this language model can even be used independently, for example, create a virtual character named after himself on his basis, feed him sparse messages from this forum from his profile - and now he will learn to generate messages in your own style, supporting the dialogs and adhering to the given topic. Of course, he will not have my personal charisma, beard and sparkling subtle humor, but is it not delightful? |
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Indian refineries have published details on the landing cost of crude oil from Russia. In January 2023, average cost per barrel was $80, and this may include $20 to $30 per barrel for freight and insurance. The landing cost was not much different from the Indian basket ($81 per barrel), since under pressure Iraq was forced to reduce the price of crude oil it sells to India. So India is benefitting in both ways. In one hand, it gets cheap oil from Russia and on the other, it can demand other exporters to reduce their rates.
What are you talking about, but what about the oil price ceiling? Bloomberg is indignant, along with Mr. beer alcoholic, who tells everyone here about huge discounts. Okay, India, it recently turned out based on an analysis of financial statistics reports that the average price of Ural oil, which Japan buys from Russia (which is outrageous in itself, of course), was $68 per barrel in January 2023 - and this is without insurance and transportation. This is no good, as an evil tyrant cannot be defeated by the progressive global LGBT+ community. |
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China is the only country that matters and is currently maintaining a significant commercial relationship with the Russian Federation. Without the huge exports and imports from China and to China, Putin and his Psychos would not be able to pay for a prolonger war. If anyone thinks that the China Communist Party is doing this for friendship and love should really give it a second thought.
What is the price? Transfering the latest tech? Intelligence data? Support for the future invasion of Taiwan? 50% discount in oil for 10 years? ... Xi Yinping could be now in Moscow asking for pretty much anything he wants - he is got Putin by his little balls.
China makes no sacrifices by cooperating with Russia, this strategic alliance is mutually beneficial. Therefore, I do not understand the question in your formulation, why should Russia pay China anything else, besides what it already pays under the existing agreements. |
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50% seems about right considering these banks don't hold enough cash to insure depositors in the event the economy crashes and there's a need for liquidity. The narrative of failing banks dates back to the economic crisis of 2008. And even further back to the banking industry becoming increasingly deregulated.
There could be whatever regulation on SVB in retrospect and the bank would still fail unless the regulation were to be applied to the federal reserve themselves. It was them that created trillions of dollars of cash flowing into the economy in 2020-2021 and seemingly tech stocks is where a lot of that money was funneled to. The bubble popped and so did SVB. The treasury bonds they were holding onto only added to the complications. SVB can't control the inflation rate. The drama of the SVB is that in terms of banking, he did everything right. In the sense that it was not the gamble of managers who were too carried away by high-risk investments that led to its collapse, and there were no high-profile corruption scandals with the loss of the bank's reputation. Just the conservative rate on the "risk-free" asset in the form of US Treasury bonds did not work, in conditions uncontrolled surge in inflation. And who did it? Of course, Putin.  |
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Well, yes, another ridiculous attempt to make Russia a pariah country by outlawing its president. It is especially hypocritical that this legally insignificant PR action was carried out against the backdrop of the 20th anniversary of the illegal US invasion of Iraq. The International Criminal Court knows full well that it has no authority to try the (with diplomatic immunity) president of a country that has not ratified the Rome Statute. This is another empty informational occasion, not worth much attention, in a politically biased topic that has nothing to do with the economy.
Yes, Russia has not ratified the Rome Statute and will not do so under the Putin regime, and therefore does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Putin and his current entourage also do not recognize the established international norms of law, the rules and customs of the war that they unleashed in Ukraine, and generally spit on any public opinion, and also demonstrate that no rules of human behavior apply to them. But still, they will be prosecuted and will suffer a well-deserved punishment. After the issuance of an ICC warrant for Putin's arrest, despite the fact that Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of this court, any state from 123 countries that acceded to its jurisdiction is obliged to arrest Putin and bring him to the prison of this court in The Hague if he is on their territories.But this is only the beginning. Now Ukraine has initiated the creation of a separate international tribunal. It is created by general agreement. An agreement on the creation has already been written, there is a preliminary agreement of about eleven countries that they are ready to join, including very serious states. This special tribunal will begin to consider whether the highest political leadership is guilty of war crimes and aggression against Ukraine, and the recognition of its jurisdiction by Putin or other suspects, as well as by Russia as a whole, will not matter, just as the norms of human civilization do not matter now for these criminals. If proven guilty, they will receive from 30 years in prison to life imprisonment simply for starting a war. https://www.currenttime.tv/a/mnenie-rossii-uzhe-absolyutno-ne-vazhno-v-gaage-sozdayut-spetsialnyy-tribunal-dlya-suda-nad-putinym-za-prestuplenie-agressii-protiv- ukrainy-/32076126.html We will be able to see the full scale of the authority of the International Criminal Court already in August this year, it seems that Putin plans to personally attend the BRICS summit in South Africa, and South Africa has ratified its participation in the Rome Statute. And I'll tell you what will happen - nothing. Because the ICC is a cheap horror story for self-proclaimed black dictators from African banana republics. The US didn't give a damn about the authority of the ICC, there is even a law that prohibits the extradition of Americans at the request of the ICC (which was adopted after attempts to prosecute several US citizens for war crimes in Iraq). If the United States considers itself above the jurisdiction of the ICC, then this court is not so international. Well, Russia also holds a similar opinion on this matter, constitutionally affirming the priority of its own right over any international one. |
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They have been telling that sanctions will crumble Russia but it's not true anymore, after a year of this conflict, the sanctions are not affecting them.
That's the same mistake some people make about Europe. Just because there was an initial propaganda about an unrealistically terrible result (Russia crumbling like Europe freezing over) that didn't happen, it doesn't mean there wasn't any negative effects at all. The reality is that both Russia and NATO are severely affected by this war that has been going on between them for the past year. Both sides have been able to replace part of what they've lost (Europe replacing a small part of its energy supply, Russia replacing part of its energy customers) but it hasn't been enough to negate all the effects. Examples of these negative effects are in Europe with massive deindustrialization and in Russia with budget deficit. The problems with the budget deficit in Russia, about which only the lazy one did not speak about a month ago, are approximately 80% due to the introduction of a single tax bill in Russia from 2023. In this regard, in the first month of the year there were some technical difficulties with the display of revenues to the budget revenues on the balance sheet. Already in February, the system was debugged and started to work normally, and talk about an abnormally large budget deficit in Russia somehow subsided by itself. Because there was no budget deficit, it was a software failure in the work of the tax service, which, by the way, is one of the most progressive in the world. I still maintain that for Russia, Western sanctions are not an evil, but a blessing. If they didn't exist, they would have to be invented. And Polish farmers can continue to feed pigs with their apples. |
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Well, yes, another ridiculous attempt to make Russia a pariah country by outlawing its president. It is especially hypocritical that this legally insignificant PR action was carried out against the backdrop of the 20th anniversary of the illegal US invasion of Iraq. The International Criminal Court knows full well that it has no authority to try the (with diplomatic immunity) president of a country that has not ratified the Rome Statute. This is another empty informational occasion, not worth much attention, in a politically biased topic that has nothing to do with the economy.
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~snip This is not a healthy and dangerous trend. If the banks start to collapse one by one, then nothing good will come for the crypto industry either. The domino effect and general panic are unlikely to encourage former bank savers to invest in cryptocurrencies.In general, this is by no means the first case when banks cease to exist, but people and companies still continue to keep money in them. Each time there are different names, but the principle of functioning and collapse is the same for them, which at such moments begins to work unstably: panic -> investors withdraw their assets -> those who didn't have time, they lost ->bankruptcy. I wonder if companies will now think that it is time for them to change something? Can they use other ways to store their assets, or will each of them assume that these problems don't affect them? I fundamentally disagree with you on this issue. Bitcoin was created amid the 2008 crisis as an alternative to the existing financial system, and there is nothing better for Bitcoin to flourish than another banking crisis. |
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I think Russia has no reason to take Bakhmut...why chase enemy when other side is readily bringing new soldiers for
easy kill
Have you taken a look at the map? What can you see in the vicinity of Bakhmut? Elevated positions with cover of rocks, trees, hills, river banks? Do you see anything in there that looks like a good attacking position? No, you do not, it is exactly the opposite - You will see a nightmare for the attacker, were they are detected klicks away from the defending positions. Would you like to be the attacker there Branko? Can't people just google before saying something silly? The only reason to attack it is because it is the Donbas and the RF needs to take the Donbas to be able to sell some short of "victory" to the world. Wagnerites are expendable, people from Dagestan and other satellites of Moscow are spendable. As I write this post, I am looking at the videos of Ukrainians training in Leopards. They seem veeeery pleased. Geographically, Bakhmut is located in a lowland, and all the dominant heights around the city have long been controlled by Wagner. I don’t know what political and image dividends Ukraine is trying to extract by continuing to hold the city, but from a purely military point of view, this is madness, comparable to exchanging a bishop for a pawn in a chess game. The sacrifice may be justified if you have a sharp attacking combination play, but now it looks like a rather pathetic attempt to just buy some time to prepare for the mythical counter-offensive to Melitopol to cut the land corridor to the Crimea. It seems that this is the ultimate dream of Ukrainian military strategists. |
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As far as I know, both banks will be saved, and just today I read that Credit Suisse requested help from the Swiss central bank and that they were approved for help of up to 50 billion Swiss francs, which is about 54 billion EUR. The assumptions are that this will be enough to save the bank, and I have no doubt that the Swiss central bank will do its best to preserve the credibility of its banks.
I don't want to speculate at all about what could happen next, but I don't think we should expect a complete collapse of the banking system in the US or the EU. Of course, this does not mean that the banks are safe, especially the small and less well-known ones that probably no one will save.
Credit Suisse has problems much deeper than the lack of liquidity. The bank's downfall began a year ago when it violated centuries-old Swiss neutrality and froze some 19 billion Russian money. After that, the outflow of funds from Asian clients (mainly from China and the Middle East) began from the bank. Only in November last year, 84 billion dollars were withdrawn from Credit Suisse - this is to understand the scale of the problems. The current credit line will last for a maximum of a month if the bank fails to urgently address the loss of confidence among Asian customers. |
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I think you all noticed that the stock market went down again and this time it's because of Credit Suisse.
It is still one of the biggest banks in Europe so the European banking sector has some problems too.
Their bonds, CDS, everything is going down and it's bad news not just for people from Europe but for everyone cos this is international.
Credit Suisse had some problems in previous years but this time it's wild. They delayed their annual report and announced that they have weaknesses in internal control which is awful for the bank. And the largest shareholders started saying that they won't give any money to Credit Suisse. People are withdrawing from this bank for the last 3 months but now it's got even worse.
Because risk is getting higher, people move away from banks to invest in more stable assets. The US is helping banks to bail out depositors but banks still have to keep credit flowing which is pretty hard considering the loss of trust in this sector.
I think the best decision right now is to wait for what will happen next because it's pretty hard to predict where the market will move next.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB), together with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, issued a press release stating that the problems of some banks in the US do not pose a risk to Swiss banks. And Credit Suisse has everything in order - it meets the requirements for capital and liquidity. Well, CS, for its part, immediately announced its intention to get access to the SNB credit line in the amount of $54 billion. "Which will certainly support business and customers." The collapse of the global financial system is temporarily delayed. |
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Meanwhile, the RF air force has decided that it is ok to down US drones in international waters. I wonder what may happen next.
No one shot him down, they just pissed on kerosene with a nearby flying plane and he himself fell. |
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Sanctions are not useless; on the contrary, they are very useful for Russia. Under conditions of free trade and an open market, Russia had no chance to develop its own economy, and it is precisely the closing of borders thanks to sanctions that gives Russia a chance to become economically self-sufficient and throw off the suffocating "Parshev's noose" from its neck. When two-thirds of your territory is permafrost, globalization and transparent borders become unprofitable. Russia becomes stronger in the presence of strong external threats and weakens when surrounded by friends. For Russia, the collapse of the USSR in the economic sense was not a tragedy, but a boon. Fool who does not understand this.
If sanctions are useful for Russia's economic development, and open borders only weaken it, then in 5-10 years we expect an economic miracle in this country. After all, even after so many years, if the sanctions are lifted, their consequences will be felt for many more years. Then Russia will become as strong as the current North Korea, which is also under certain sanctions and has been a closed country for many years. The strength of North Korea even allows you to claim that they can help a weakened Russia in the supply of military equipment for the war with Ukraine. True, in North Korea itself, a shortage of food is now especially evident, as well as other benefits of civilization. However, her government also claims that the well-being of the people of North Korea is constantly improving. Self-love is a big thing. Russia will soon have to deal with this as well. Are you seriously comparing Russia and North Korea? Why not with Cuba, it has also been under sanctions for half a century? Russia cannot be compared with anyone, it is a unique geopolitical formation, if only because of its scale. But in what you are right - within 5-10 years, Russia really has every chance of an economic miracle. |
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Yeah, seems that plane wasn't damaged.
Oops, theguardian posted a fake. But there is more epic video published, than potentially destroying plane: https://t.me/truexanewsua/69925Cheap FPV drone arrived to air base unnoticed, landed on the plane and after some time it fly away from airbase. Just perfect level of Belarus air defence. Ahaha, just now you were celebrating a $330 million plane damage, and now you're celebrating a video from a cheap drone. You don't need much to be happy, just a drop of propaganda shit. Of course you are a Nazi. The cultivation of hatred for everything Russian in Ukraine has become the cornerstone of the formation of national identity in Ukraine in recent history. You are not just Ukrainian, you are anti-Russian.
I'm not Ukrainian, but yeah, I'm anti-Russian and I don't see any reasons to like Russia. But if I'm Nazi just because I don't like Russians, then who are you?: It does not matter how many houses will have to be destroyed and how many more people will have to be killed.
There can be no half measures in the fight against Nazism. You, too, will be denazified if you do not reconsider your views on this issue. |
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Another news from "great russia", "whose economy is stable, and sanctions are useless"  Sanctions are not useless; on the contrary, they are very useful for Russia. Under conditions of free trade and an open market, Russia had no chance to develop its own economy, and it is precisely the closing of borders thanks to sanctions that gives Russia a chance to become economically self-sufficient and throw off the suffocating "Parshev's noose" from its neck. When two-thirds of your territory is permafrost, globalization and transparent borders become unprofitable. Russia becomes stronger in the presence of strong external threats and weakens when surrounded by friends. For Russia, the collapse of the USSR in the economic sense was not a tragedy, but a boon. Fool who does not understand this. |
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- Western Ukraine is filled with Nazis who hate people that aren't Ukrainian, don't speak the Ukrainian language. Calling someone Nazi just because they hate people who don't speak official language of country is a bit too stroong word. In my country there is also many people who live there 70-80 years and they speak just Russian. I don't like them too, so, Im probably also Nazi. Amusing coming out. Of course you are a Nazi. The cultivation of hatred for everything Russian in Ukraine has become the cornerstone of the formation of national identity in Ukraine in recent history. You are not just Ukrainian, you are anti-Russian. |
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