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1161  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 22, 2022, 02:52:55 AM
It is only thanks to Russia's asymmetric dominant superiority in nuclear weapons that the US and NATO are doing their best to avoid being drawn directly into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The real world is a strange thing, six months ago it was difficult to assume that Iran has an asymmetric dominant superiority in the development of kamikaze drones. And now NATO is feverishly looking for an effective antidote to flying lawnmowers.
You're saying that NATO don't have antidote for these Iran drones, but in reality, things is a bit different. Ukraine simply have lack of modern air defense systems, but even with stuff that they have, they don't let high % of these lawnmowers to reach point of destination. Though, expensive missiles are being used to shoot down these $20k worth drones.
Russia destroying civilian and critical infrastructure of Ukraine, but how much it helps Russia to achieve something in front? Rhetorical question.
And it's same like they don't use word ''war when they talk about what's happening in Ukraine, they're afraid or ashamed to admit that they're using drones from Iran.
In fact of the matter. Due to the low cost, you can launch fifty kamikaze drones at one target and it will be almost guaranteed to be hit, even if it is protected by the best air defense system. In this case, you spent only a million dollars, and your opponent shot all the ammunition and still could not protect the target. This is a serious problem for Ukraine and NATO, for which there is currently no solution (especially in the event of a night attack). Generally speaking, this is a problem for Russia too, because the mass production of such drones in garage conditions can be quickly deployed by almost any country in the world. By the way, this is why Iran denies its involvement in the supply of Shahid-136 drones to Russia, these drones are made in Russia and are called Geran-2. And in terms of the set of components, they are even more Chinese than Iranian.

When I read this post I really felt like watching Russian propaganda TV or reading drunk Medvedev telegram posts about Judgement Day Cheesy. These things works in Russia, but outside it it's just makes smiles.
Glad you're having fun. Grin
1162  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 21, 2022, 12:06:25 PM
Thank you both for the Channel 1 broadcast but out here in the real world Putin's demands and threats aren't very impressive. They're designed to impress you in the soviet russian imperial propaganda bubble and it seems to be working so far. Get ready to accept the great victory of defending Voronezh against the evil nazis.
It is only thanks to Russia's asymmetric dominant superiority in nuclear weapons that the US and NATO are doing their best to avoid being drawn directly into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The real world is a strange thing, six months ago it was difficult to assume that Iran has an asymmetric dominant superiority in the development of kamikaze drones. And now NATO is feverishly looking for an effective antidote to flying lawnmowers.
1163  Economy / Economics / Re: UK economy bond market and current situatsion explained by percise analysis on: October 21, 2022, 08:20:48 AM
UK has a lot more problems than its bond market. They can't even form a government. The previous prime minister (the guy with the hair) resigned not so long ago and the new one (Liz Truss) just resigned after she messed up the economy even more than it was messed up. Only in 6 weeks!!!
The British newspaper Daily Star launched a stream a week ago asking which would last longer: British Prime Minister Liz Truss or a head of lettuce that had a ten-day shelf life.

Well, the head of lettuce won. Grin
1164  Economy / Economics / Re: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription on: October 21, 2022, 07:44:32 AM
The problem for Russian citizens is that Putin's crime family has been ruling there for decades and the Russians are incapable of overthrowing it. They lack cohesion and readiness for self-sacrifice in order for the rest to have a better life. What is missing is exactly what was demonstrated in Ukraine during the expulsion of the criminal regime of Yanukovych in 2013. Moreover, the majority of Russian citizens even support the current attack on Ukraine and rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. For this they will have to pay for many of their subsequent generations. Leaving the country is not an option. Need to change Russia through democratic reforms. This will still remain an internal problem of the Russians and only they will have to solve it.
You have strange ideas about a better life. Ukraine is a bankrupt country, unable to exist without continuous external financing, in your opinion is this the better life?
1165  Economy / Economics / Re: Germans are looking to firewood for energy as natural gas prices soar on: October 21, 2022, 07:39:18 AM
While the Kremlin propagandists and their stooges are screaming and hysterical, trying to intimidate Europe, the reality looks like this:

"It took Europe 8 months to find an alternative to Russian gas," said the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
"At first, we assumed that the Russian gas cutoff would last 7 years. Today, the facts are as follows: it took us only 8 months to replace two-thirds of the supply," she said.

And now the most important nuance - the international terrorist country has lost this market FOREVER! And besides selling to countries that don't care about "blood oil" (such as China and India), there are no options left. But there is also a nuance here - China and India are so "friendly to Russia" that they "put Russia on their elbows" and forced them to sell oil at a dumping price.
The most curious thing about your comment is that you were able to write it at all on the day when electricity ran out in almost all of Ukraine and there were serious problems with Internet access. Write your Russophobic nonsense more often so that I can know that everything is all right with you. Grin
1166  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 21, 2022, 07:30:47 AM
<...>
Russia has issued a grim warning to the rest of the world: World War III is all but guaranteed if Ukraine’s Western allies continue to meddle in their ongoing conflict. Specifically, a top Kremlin official threatened worldwide destruction should NATO approve Ukraine’s request to join the organization. <...>

Of course, the threat of a nuclear conflict should not be underestimated, but I do not think that there are suicide bombers in the Kremlin or the Pentagon who are ready to destroy themselves and the whole world in a fiery hell. And even if there are such rabid psychopaths in the highest positions, they are more likely to be neutralized by people from their environment who want to live. However, while European leaders are now methodically killing the economies of their states and escalating the conflict more and more at the instigation of the USA, the confidence that a global war between East and West can be avoided is fading before our eyes.

There is no reason for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons as part of a special operation in Ukraine, all speculation about this is groundless. The possibilities of conventional weapons are far from being exhausted. However, the situation is developing in such a way that the military defeat of Ukraine seems to be an unacceptable scenario for the development of events for the United States and NATO. And for Russia, a military defeat of Russia is unacceptable. Under such conditions, the probability of an attempt to cut the tightening Gordian knot with a strategic nuclear strike is higher than zero. I think Russia's numerous threats about possible strikes on decision-making centers are not "the last Chinese warning" and are not directed at Kyiv at all, but at Washington and London. I see one of the most realistic scenarios for such a strike in the combat use of Poseidon nuclear drones. One Poseidon of half power is enough to wash away London and all of England with a radioactive tsunami. Four full-power Poseidons (two from the Atlantic and two from the Pacific) are enough to wash away Washington, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco and create a deserted coastal zone 500 km deep on both coasts of the United States. After that, apparently, a mutual exchange of missile strikes between Russia and the United States and a test of the combat capability of their missile defense systems will begin. The chances of Russia in the post-apocalypse world, in my opinion, are higher than the chances of the United States, primarily for geographical reasons (vulnerability to strikes from the ocean), and secondly for technical reasons (the United States has no effective countermeasures against Poseidon, plus Russia has a hypersonic weapons and the overall advantage of delivery vehicles, plus, in my opinion, the missile defense system in Russia is more effective than the missile defense system in the United States). But the main beneficiary of such a scenario would likely be China (if the conflict in Taiwan does not erupt before the conflict in Ukraine enters a critical phase).
1167  Economy / Economics / Re: Germans are looking to firewood for energy as natural gas prices soar on: October 15, 2022, 04:39:39 AM
oil and gas producing counties are the one which survived inflation
like Russia survived inflation and sanction because they have oil reserves - even the whole EU turned against them they stood tall and saved their economy

This is one thing that I don't understand. The easiest way to wreck Russia was to lower the oil and gas prices by encouraging the American shale oil and gas producers to increase their output. But rather than doing that, the Biden administration has been hell bent on harassing the shale oil producers, by imposing more and more regulations and taxes. As a result, we have Brent crude rallying to three digit levels, and LNG prices going up by 20x. Now the US as such doesn't have much to worry, as they produce most of the oil and gas that they consume. But the impact is felt more for third world nations who import most of their fuel.
Biden consistently acts in the interests of the "green" lobby. The "carrot" lever in the form of subsidies, subsidies and tax breaks for the purchase of an electric car is apparently no longer effective enough. Therefore, in order to stimulate the transition of Americans to electric cars, you just need to make owning a gasoline car economically painful.
1168  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 12, 2022, 06:09:10 AM
If you like Zelensky, you'll love his request for NATO to start a nuclear war. Why does he want the nukes to fly? Because he is failing against Russia in Ukraine.

Who is this Ukraine joker, anyway... who wants world nuclear war? Doesn't he realize that any scenario he dreams up, has already been thought of in Russia and all around the world?

How about the scenario where Russia fails to kill him, fails to take Kiev, gets their main battleship Sunk, Crimean bridge blown up, and after a bunch of other embarrassments finds itself on defense losing territory they thought they had secured last for good last spring, and now forced to mobilize 9 months after starting the thing they thought wouldn't even be a war by invading Ukraine .  You think Putin thought of that scenario?  Doesn't seem like it.
Russia's response to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge was quick, but it can hardly be called rash. As a result of massive missile strikes, electrical substations with a capacity of 330 kW were damaged throughout Ukraine. This forced Ukraine to stop exporting electricity to the EU and led to blackouts in many parts of Ukraine, but this is not dramatic damage to critical infrastructure. If 750KW substations had been targeted for strikes, Ukraine would have been plunged into darkness for a long time, and these damages would have been much more difficult to repair. The prospect of meeting winter without electricity, heat, water, light and the Internet is not very tempting. No country can survive winter without heating and electricity, even at minus 5 degrees.

Russia's problem is that it is still conducting a special operation in Ukraine without taking off its white gloves. And Ukraine, in response, is fighting with all its might, not choosing the means to achieve its goals. For the most part, Ukrainians hate Russians, and Russians consider Ukrainians to be a brotherly people. For Russia, this is not an advantageous position, even taking into account its multiple superiority in strength.
1169  Other / Politics & Society / Re: During the morning missile attack on Ukraine, the Russians hit Samsung Offices on: October 12, 2022, 03:13:45 AM
LOL! It's as if Russian bombings have been selecting specific targets. They're not. So I don't think this Samsung office in Kyiv being hit by one of the Russian bombs is intentional. No, it definitely isn't. It's plain coincidence. Russian bombings have been indiscriminate. They're hitting schools, children's parks, train stations, hospitals, churches, resident buildings, and other civilian and neutral infrastructures and areas. Hell, their soldiers are even shooting old people and women.
The New York Times disagrees with you. They say that the Russians fired more than a hundred rockets, and killed only 19 people, which means they have poor quality rockets. Grin

A massive missile strike on October 10 targeted 330kW electrical substations to inflict limited damage on Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Only one rocket, apart from substations, was fired at the building of the SBU in Kyiv.
1170  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 12, 2022, 02:42:16 AM
At the risk of "whatabouting", think of the protest in Iran. Police do kill protesters, and not by chance or when things get out of control, they do kill them by the hundreds and those arrested get badly beaten, again not just one or two cases, but as an official method of control and punishment without trial. Why do you think the women there are risking death when protesting? Why do you think they would rather risk dying than living under the Ayatollahs?  If you find the answer, you will be one step closer to understanding Ukraine.
Because they were paid from the funds of the US State Department, like you when you jumped on the Maidan? Grin

The riots in Iran followed exactly the patterns of color revolutions, and enough about that here.
1171  Other / Politics & Society / Re: During the morning missile attack on Ukraine, the Russians hit Samsung Offices on: October 12, 2022, 01:46:22 AM
It is known economic sanctions on russia deprive the russian war effort of vital parts and components, such as semiconductors and computer chips.

Could russia target chip makers like samsung as primary military targets in the future. In an effort to pressure them to supply russia with much needed components?

In this instance russian rockets appeared to target samsung office bulidings. No one was hurt thankfully. Everyone had evacuated to a bomb shelter. How much pressure and destruction of real estate and assets can a chipmaker like samsung endure before they begin to reconsider sanctions and decide to rethink their stance on supplying russia with vital parts and components?

Judging by the shape of the striking elements, a Ukrainian Buk anti-aircraft missile fell near the Samsung office in Kyiv. Do not build a conspiracy theory where there is operator error or the poor quality of an old Soviet guided anti-aircraft missile.
1172  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 11, 2022, 01:38:18 PM
The 200k invasion army was supposedly better trained and better equipped and had other advantages like robust air support and still functioning supply lines. What happened to those soldiers? No one cares, let's throw another 300k into it, just with less of everything, and see how that works out. Maybe shift some generals around, yeah, that'll do it.
The question is not for me, but I will answer. Recently, a detachment of special forces from Ukraine returned to my city. They left six months ago and only now have they been given vacation leave (although the planned rotation should be carried out after six weeks of hostilities). Six months instead of six weeks - this is the price of the shortage of manpower involved in the special operation.

As for the scale of losses, people are tired, but everyone is alive. Recently, the first "cargo 200" from Ukraine arrived in the city, a sniper from Wagner.
1173  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation in Germany hits double digits for the first time since WWII on: October 02, 2022, 01:51:18 PM
Im amused why Germany is slowing down like this and that’s why made Short comparison. They can do better I think and I don’t think we should blame on pandemic all the way up. Since India thrived anyways they never stopped growing. Germany can too.
The recent sabotage on the Nord Stream is a control shot in the head for the German economy. It is still moving, but already an economic corpse. I did not look at the latest statistics, but in July industrial inflation in Germany exceeded 37%, that is, the production of goods in Germany rose by more than a third in a year. This is a fairly reliable leading indicator for consumer inflation.
1174  Economy / Economics / Re: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription on: October 02, 2022, 01:34:25 PM
I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.
In theory, you are right, subpoenas from the military registration and enlistment office can only be served at the place of registration of citizens. In practice, summons for mobilization are usually handed over to the personnel department of the enterprise at the place of work of the person liable for military service in the reserve.
1175  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 02, 2022, 09:54:06 AM
@be.open
@DaRude

I'm just wondering, how do you guys feel since the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia? Will we see you in the front lines? Can you two update us here?
I have a dilemma - I do not want to shave, and with a beard I will become too conspicuous a target for snipers. There is an option to get to the front through the Special Forces University in Grozny, where almost everyone is bearded. While I'm considering the possibility of participating in the Ukrainian safari, but my assault backpack is already packed. If I stop writing on the forum for a long time, then I'm already much closer to you than you think. Grin

Now, please return the courtesy - why are you yourself not yet at the front, after the eighth wave of mobilization in Ukraine?
1176  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: October 02, 2022, 05:37:07 AM
30th September: Lyman joins Russian Federation
1st October: Lyman leaves Russian federation.
Seems that they didn't liked to be part of Russia. And nobody cares about results of fake referendums and Putin rhetoric
BTW, Ukrainians lready went for appointment in local office of DPR head Denis Pushilin Penis Dushilin, but unfortunately he wasn't here. Well, maybe next time.
https://t.me/truexanewsua/61669

Can't be good for morale to retreat from a city you just "annexed" the day before.

That's not usually how annexing works.

Also now, in Putins alternate reality, Russia is now being occupied by Nazis.  How long can he "allow" that to happen before even the most brainwashed (whatever it is they call boomer generation in Russia) start to realize reality is much different than they previously believed?
The capture of Lyman is a Pyrrhic victory for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Two weeks of unsuccessful attempts to close the boiler, huge losses of manpower and armored vehicles, the weakening of the Soledar direction due to the transfer of reserves and the general loss of pace of the Kharkov counteroffensive. And on the nose is winter, for which Ukraine is not at all ready, soon the leaves will fall from the trees, Russia will begin to receive fresh reserves from the mobilized. But for now, rejoice - Lyman is yours. Grin
1177  Other / Politics & Society / Re: To the results of the Russian-Ukrainian war on: October 01, 2022, 08:19:54 AM
Well, perhaps the first results of the special operation can already be summed up. Donbas is ours! Kherson and Zaporozhye too. Grin
1178  Economy / Economics / Re: UK Under Recession, Inflation Hitting World Strong Economies on: October 01, 2022, 06:50:53 AM
There was a new UK "budget" released yesterday which is absolutely horrendous. The current party in charge took some of the most fiscally irresponsible actions you could possibly imagine, they stripped back lots of laws and ultimately helped the poorest the least while giving massive tax cuts to the richest. It is going to cause even greater problems in balancing the books and the stock market took yet another hammering. It seems that the UK is constantly stuck with some dire class of politicians and a political party that has become rotten after 12 years in power, who are only interested in serving the billionaires that they have private meetings and probably party with when they should be working.
Liz Truss is absolutely incompetent, I don’t understand how it was possible to choose a person as prime minister, whose opinion on any issue is spinning like a weather vane in the wind.
1179  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: September 30, 2022, 10:36:32 AM
^^^ Not much information is available for Poseidon. What I have heard is that it has a very low speed (~100 kmph) and need to cruise at lower deaths to use the stealth mode. Another concern is regarding the warhead. Rumors are that the war head has a yield of 2 megatons (compared to 50 megatons for the Tsar Bomba).
Poseidon is an autonomous underwater drone with its own nuclear reactor (that is, with unlimited range and duration) and a warhead with a capacity of up to 100 megatons, it is also called the "continent killer". "Very low speed of about 100 kmph" - this is quite good, considering that Poseidon does not fly, but swims under water.
Irrespective of the type of nuke being used, Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is assured in case of a nuclear war between the NATO and Russia. My concern is regarding the neutral countries and how they will be impacted in such a scenario.
The concept of mutually assured destruction, as you understand, is theoretical in nature and essentially speculative; it has never been (and I hope will not be) tested in practice. Russia has a Perimeter system (Dead Hand in NATO classification), the US probably also has something similar, although the details are unknown to me. How all these systems work in practice - no one knows.
1180  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: September 30, 2022, 03:42:59 AM
Maybe, but I still don't think nuking a military base would be the plan since they can be neutralized a lot easier and a lot cheaper (less consequence) specially those bases in West Asia considering that they are already in hostile territory and surrounded by forces who have their "guns" pointed at those bases as we speak...

Russia has good relations with Saudi Arabia and some of the other GCC nations, so I think that the chances that they may target the bases in middle-east are very low. More likely, they may target the American bases in East Asia, such as those in South Korea and Japan. The advantage is that they have one of their most loyal allies in the region (DPRK). Anyway, I just hope that a nuclear war and a global conflict can be avoided at any cost. The current generation have no idea of the horrors that were perpetrated during the two world wars. We simply can't afford another world war.  
I do not think that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons at all in the current round of confrontation with Ukraine. Simply because it is fraught with great political risks and does not bring any benefits. A dozen or two conventional large-caliber high-explosive bombs of the FAB-3000 type can achieve an effect comparable to a nuclear strike on Nagasaki. If the target is well protected, you can use Dagger hypersonic missiles with a conventional warhead, 500 kg of TNT at a speed of Mach 5 will produce an impressive destructive effect. I just don't see the point in using tactical nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately, a strike by strategic nuclear weapons, both retaliatory and preventive, is much more likely. And it is unlikely that Satan or Sarmat will be involved, because of the need to take into account the wind rose in order to reduce the risk of radioactive contamination of their own territory. If the red line is crossed (and let's be honest - we don't even know exactly where it is), I think the decisive blow will be delivered by Poseidon, an underwater nuclear drone capable of causing a tsunami up to 100 meters high and destroying all life on the coast up to 500 km deep. And it will be either a simultaneous strike by two Poseidons on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States, or a single strike by Poseidon on the UK. Or either right away. New York, Washington, Los Angeles, San Francisco and London will be completely destroyed from such a strike. As a side effect, severe damage will be in all coastal cities of the globe.
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