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the bitcoin market, like any other financial market, behaves irrationally, not rationally
This is why technical chart analysis can be so effective.
The current short term trend has turned down now and lower prices are likely.
I will provide key trigger levels and price targets for short and intermediate term in the subscriber section.
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let me briefly try.
(I am on my mobile device and can't post graphs that would be needed to illustrate.)
Silver has been underperforming gold since april 2011 and has been shown above in this thread via the gold/silver ratio
Silver is also a very good leading indicator fir the broader financial market (stocks, etc). This underoerformance is a key element which I use in firecasting.
As long as silver remains below the 50$ mark,silver is in the first stages of amultiyear bear market.
Gold will remain a little strongezr than silver because gold is a safer heaven than silver in the financial crisis #2 we are already in.
But gold will also at least initially fall hard due to the needed deleveraging of financial institutions and individuals.
Basically I am saying that in this second leg of the financial crisis, all markets go down together, just some will fall a bit less
Target for silver is first the 27-30$ zone and then single digits by 2014-2016.
Gold will likely at least test the 1000$ mark before moving to record highs into 2000-5000 and even higher..
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prices just broke through a major , supporting chart tredline.
That move was anticipated in my technical analysis to my subscribers already monday morning
Further downside is likely unless this trendline is claimed back.
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silver and gold sre overvalued and will soon drop in dollar terms.
Silver will fall faster snd deeper than gold
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Agree, I wonder how many people were affected in this yet another big mistake from MtGox
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you can see today by the changes to the order book and market depth that people who were holding out for a rebound cashed out big time with like, ~10k sold @ 12.50. Market depth is out of whack now, so I'm curious to see what happens at the $11 buy wall.
It looks as if the 11$ wall is the last straw.. before a potential further fall.
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The trading fees have nothing to do with the price moves.
Bitcoin/USD has been in a sideways/triangle chart formation and just broke down a key support zone. This forecast I have given this morning to my subscribers. Short term trend is down now.
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This is the chicken & eggs phenomenon.
Bitcoin volume would very likely go up massively if exchanges had proper security.
I know a lot of investors who were thinking about putting real big funds into bitcoin but decided not to because of security issues.
Security wasn't the issue with this incident. It was an admin forgetting something obvious during an upgrade. This eventually happens to everybody, even Amazon. It's one of the risks that comes along with being human.
Professionalism looks different |
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This is the chicken & eggs phenomenon.
Bitcoin volume would very likely go up massively if exchanges had proper security.
I know a lot of investors who were thinking about putting real big funds into bitcoin but decided not to because of security issues.
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But this is actually bullish news for BTC, 17000 BTC has just been destroyed, this should increase the value of the rest of the BTC by almost 2%. It's not really good news, the decrease in supply is dwarfed by the increases of anxiety over bitcoin. If you are a relatively new investor to bitcoin and read about the 25l stolen, the mtgox hack, third biggest exchange loses all it's coin, mtgox shows coins at 1.3 million each, the dwolla charge back hack and mybitcoin one of the largest and most recommended online wallet services went dark this weekend and their doesnt seem to be any way to contact the owner or any info on it. This is a dark day for the coin, and this shit needs to stop happening for it to become mainstream. A stock exchange can fall but they will still eventually find your stocks. These coins just vanished.
This is not the confidence investors, traders and normal people interested in bitcoins need to buy some.
If I heard those failures of the exchanges back in fall 2010, I would not be here now. I would have never entered bitcoins in such an unstable exchange mess.
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Just coming back from a long weekend.. and then I see this..
It is striking how weak the biggest bitcoin exchange is. Nothing against the mtgox people, but this is another one of countless mistakes on this exchange - massively damaging the bitcoin reputation.
The bitcoin community needs fully professional exchanges, at highest security standards.
Otherwise, bitcoin will experience even more negative publicity and does not gain the needed broader distribution as most of us want.
Personally I am moving to Tradehill or others like CampBX, or whichever exchange finally meets security standards.
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you are harvesting our opinions about the market, and then selling it.
This is exactly what I have NOT done. I have not harvested the polls. |
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Sorry, I'm not going to participate in your polls anymore. You have stopped providing updates to the public, so I see no reason to provide you with my sentiment. It probably won't be missed, but I'm disappointed by your greed.
I can understand your frustration. Let me explain three things.
First, the in-depth technical analysis I am doing takes me about 5 hours each to do it properly and to provide me enough confidence to publish it. I want to provide great service, not a half cooked one. I am not sure if it this can be called greedy, but everyone can have its own view here on the forum.
Second, the subscription service I am providing is voluntary and there are a lot of people very satisfied with it.
Third, I am doing this also to demonstrate that services offered for bitcoin only work, and supporting the bitcoin economy.
Now, about the poll, I get your point. I need your votes to be able to publish a meaningful correlation. I still need more weeks to get to a proper picture. I am sure it will be very valid and I promise to publish this one here in this forum first (I have not published this so far). |
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I have reset the poll again.
Vote now. Thanks for your opinion.
Up?
Same?
Down?
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good summary
It is true that many bitcoiners got into trading doe th first time and can use some guidance.
fundamentals do not really work for bitcoins, particularly in shorter time frames.
This is why I am offering technical analysis for bitcoin since Oct 2010 which has guided many bitcoiners well through the storm, and often avoiding irrational trading decisions.
The weekly analysis report will cover th current situation in detail
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Bruce,
you are the man.
let's make sure you help others to reapply it across the world.
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I want to thank all subscribers for the great feedback. More to come soon!
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To get sustainable BTCUSD price rallies, more investors / traders need to join and add funds.
This is a key area the community could focus on.
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And there is always an alternative for investors, just keep the bitcoins.
+1 Vladimir.
As most of the time, your comments bring it to the point.
And particularly a NASDAQ long only strategy has not a lot of room to rise in the current crisis, particularly not vs. bitcoins if bitcoins stays strong. |
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