|
:-) I am not sure if my mission is to spark fun only... It should definitely help making a bit better trading and investment decisions.
I have just completed my in-depth weekly bitcoin market and technical analysis which is exclusive to subscribers, and I keep committed to this exclusivity.
As always, I will publish some updates here and there on twitter, but with less depth and with a delay.
Thanks for your understanding.
|
|
|
|
No, we have broken out above. Further upmove is required to make this a lasting breakout.
|
|
|
|
|
He was last active on July 13, 2011, 07:03:24 am, perhaps he is just on vacation and wil respond once he is back or has resolved it.
|
|
|
|
here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9WLongterm: UP. Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance. Overall, the forecast about a bullish consolidation and subsequent breakout to the upside has materialized. While the very short term pattern turned out somewhat different to the option presented in last analysis here (bullflag extended further to the downside), the overall direction was correct. Bitcoins are back in a bullmarket on all timeframes. Technical analysis It is always important to look at the longterm picture before falling into the trap of drawing too short term (and often wrong) conclusions. In German language, we call this "you don't see the forest when you stand in the middle of the trees". Both, the long and mid term trend are clearly up. The chart below shows that the move down from the all time high of 31.9 $ is corrective, not impulsive. Based on chart analysis tools, Elliott Wave patterns (not shown) and volume patterns, this view is the preferred scenario. For example, both, the chart pattern and the volume development indicate that the entire move down from 31.9 $ is a consolidation with the most likely resolution to the upside and new highs in weeks/months. Shortterm, and as predicted especially in the subscription service ( http://bit.ly/mjP1Rh) , a big rally came last night with strong volume. Most of the 12 day downward consolidation was retraced within just 3 hours, a strong bullish move. BTCUSD are now consolidating this move and likely will move up into the 17 $ - 20 $ area. The BitBulls are in control now, as long as the 12.5 $ low 7 down sloping lower channel line holds. But even if this channel support falls, there is much more support in the 9.5 $ - 12. 5 $ cluster, as short and midterm support levels run in this zone. Trade Bitcoins well! Your S3052 Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. |
|
|
|
Gah! Noooooo!!! I was waiting til it hit $11.XX. I even put some money into my MtGox acct grr...  We highlighted the 11.8-12.5 zone as buy area in the technical analysis subscription. 5 Btc per month and still a few slots available . |
|
|
|
|
Agree that it is not helpful to get this thread spoiled.
And this is why I return to technical analysis.
As analyzed for the subscribers often over the past days, BTCUSD has respected the trendchannel and may have finished this consolidation at today's low.
Back to rally mode unless the 9.5 - 10 $ fails. More detailed buy and sell triggers in the subscription reports.
|
|
|
|
|
Once the current consolidation ends with the initial breakout about a crucial level, the rally will resume to much higher levels.
Clear breakout level signals are communicated timely in the subscription service.
|
|
|
|
|
+1 This is also how we see it
|
|
|
|
This is exactly the case: It is a contrarian indicator. If all the mainstream news and newspapers write about that the dollar will collapse , it is very close to do the opposite.
I.e. see the chart for USDCHF. A typical tiring downtrend as evidenced by the wedge formation. Above the 0.835-0.84 zone is breakout to RALLY:
The same with Gold which will also start a major correction soon. The first drop will happen in the next 7 days.
Interesting, I can see where you are coming from. But just to ask, in situations like this, do you ever see macro economic conditions impact on your analysis? e.g. For the correction in Gold to occur, wouldn't we expect to see the people who are using it as a hedge to release their holdings, but at this point in time I don't think there is enough confidence to do so.
I am not saying everyone has to do it that way and everyone will be successful, but for me it works brilliantly since many years and that is why I continue doing it that way.
I.e. for Gold, most people are already LONG gold and probably some big guys have already started to release their holdings (obviously without telling everybody). This is called "distribution phase": selling to the public, and typically the man on the street buys exactly at the top, where hedges funds, banks, other institutional investors have already dumped it.. |
|
|
|
UPDATE:
We are expanding the service to 50 subscribers since we have added capacity.
Send an email to S3052@gmx.ch if you want to secure one of the slots.
Of note, our analysis shows that BTC trading will likely soon get much more exciting
|
|
|
|
The only KING prevailing will be cash and hopefully bitcoins.[/color]
WAIT....wut?!?  I really hope you were thinking Swiss Francs when you wrote that.
But in the next days / weeks shifting to USD as this will have a major RALLY soon for 9-18 months. Believe it or not.When I think of QE2, I don't think of cruise ships no more. If your technicals are stating USD rally, then this might be a case where the information from analysis in dire contrast to everyday information in the news.
I.e. see the chart for USDCHF. A typical tiring downtrend as evidenced by the wedge formation. Above the 0.835-0.84 zone is breakout to RALLY: 
The same with Gold which will also start a major correction soon. The first drop will happen in the next 7 days. |
|
|
|
The only KING prevailing will be cash and hopefully bitcoins.[/color]
WAIT....wut?!? I really hope you were thinking Swiss Francs when you wrote that.
But in the next days / weeks shifting to USD as this will have a major RALLY soon for 9-18 months. Believe it or not. |
|
|
|
|
It is true that patience is needed for the breakout. Still, we expect the breakout to the upside from current levels, or slightly lower.
|
|
|
|
+1
I could not agree more with you.
this all comes back to the organizational structure of bitcoin:
No unified leadership
No overall commercial leader / general manager
no marketing leader
no pr / er leader
no legal advisor
a technical leader Gavin who is doing great, including good interviews
But the whole thing is weak. This comes also becuse of the decentralized nature of bitcoin.
what is needed is a company or non profit organization (ie foundation) that drives this project forward in a structured way
I consider decentralization as its greatest strength and asset.
At the sme time, COMMERCIALLY there needs to be much more synchronized and stronger PR/ER/Marketing efforts to stem against the big negative government and competitive pressure |
|
|
|
|
the T&S and the order book dont work for me today, while it was working perfectly before on chrome.
Anyone observing the same?
|
|
|
|
|
I cover in depth assessment of bear / bull situations in my technical analysis subscription service.
the picture bithappy painted is not how we see it in the analysis.
|
|
|
|
yes at least 60% drop.
My expectation is even a 90% drop, but I am happy to bet on a 60% drop to start with.
To those who dont believe in deflation that is already underway since late 1999 should look at the DJI measured in gold.
What asset type are we wagering? Fiat currency or stocks?  Does that mean you're bullish on PMs and commodities, S3052? I would bet against you on AAPL because though most consumers are weak, luxury brands should fare better due to the growing inequality.
This drop will be unprecedented (i.e. much more severe than the 1929 crash) and hence AAPL will also get almost wiped out. The big guys will not fare so well to keep the inequality shift alive for long.
The only KING prevailing will be cash and hopefully bitcoins. |
|
|
|
|
+1
I could not agree more with you.
this all comes back to the organizational structure of bitcoin:
No unified leadership
No overall commercial leader / general manager
no marketing leader
no pr / er leader
no legal advisor
a technical leader Gavin who is doing great, including good interviews
But the whole thing is weak. This comes also becuse of the decentralized nature of bitcoin.
what is needed is a company or non profit organization (ie foundation) that drives this project forward in a structured way
|
|
|
|
yes at least 60% drop.
My expectation is even a 90% drop, but I am happy to bet on a 60% drop to start with.
To those who dont believe in deflation that is already underway since late 1999 should look at the DJI measured in gold.
What asset type are we wagering? Fiat currency or stocks? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
