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1901  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or gold? on: August 14, 2015, 04:56:37 PM
Alright then I was a bit wrong, so that gives intrinsic value to gold, splendid.

However I still disagree with the gold price. If that is all what gives value to gold, then perhaps gold should be = to silver.

Remember that the mining scheme of BTC is economically modeled, in a way, after gold mining and commodity production costs as fair value.

Satoshi said: "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price. In later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around."

BTC and Gold, in a way, are similar due to the energy-value-backing used to mine them.
1902  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or gold? on: August 13, 2015, 04:19:45 PM
It depends gold is a old form of money. And snake oil sales man wil say its lasted 6000 years as a real form of money. But things change. Technolgy improves and its not going to come back.

Gold, Silver, Platinum etc, have intrinsic value not only for their applications, but also for their extraction cost - and this, in turn, can be considered as an energy cost. If you need 1000$ in energy (diesel) to extract an ounce of gold, then you can't sell it at 999$. PMs therefore are backed by something - it's not snake oil.

Technology improvement is both in favor and against BTC. For PMs are steady in time, while technologies come and go, tomorrow something better might be in place of the BTC - so in this sense, an inherent uncertainty exists. Not to mention advancements in fields like quantum computing and how they might have an effect in crypto transactions and whether cryptocurrencies can cope by implementing quantum-resistant algorithms that can also scale.

Every single form of money has uncertainties.

Fiat money is too dependent on government and fiscal policies, even international events or global catastrophes. The debt-backed scheme also can't work without inflating the money supply forever, and the effects of compound interest, in the long run, mean that money loses its worth. So, in all its uncertainties, fiat has the certainty of an inflating money supply.

PMs have uncertainties, as I see it, in the sense of sudden mining technology advances, new massive deposit exploration and exploitation, and government intereference (banning of gold trade, confiscations, taxing etc). And in the short term you always have to face the price suppression scheme that is there to ensure people don't lose their faith in fiat in favor of PMs.

Bitcoin has uncertainties in the form of better technologies in the future, scaling and bloating attacks by determined attackers*, government hacking the money supply due to hardware devices spying on every single one of us, quantum computers that can render its cryptographic defense weaker, governmental and legislative blocks etc, government having the capability with own hardware or hacking in pools to perform 51% attacks, etc.

For me, the moto is anything but fiat. Fiat is only a tool to buy PMs and crypto when the price of PMs and crypto is suppressed.


* The price to bloat the blockchain to unusable levels is in the range of millions of dollars - which in turn makes it an easy target for "old money" systems - if they ever desired to attack BTC. Same with transaction costs. The "old money" elite has been paying billions of fiat to keep the price of PMs suppressed, and this is also something that BTC might also face in the future.
1903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 08, 2015, 06:17:49 AM
I'm seeing some small-scale activity in Greece, in the use of BTC to bypass capital controls. It's primarily done through credit / prepaid cards that are fed with BTC. Apparently the BTCs are being bought from a greek BTC exchange that accepts payments through local banks.

Cash or bank account money => Local BTC exchange => buying BTC => using a visa service that is being fed by BTCs => ability to buy something from abroad

1904  Economy / Economics / Re: Why bitcoin will appreciate forever on: August 08, 2015, 02:32:47 AM
Quote
Why bitcoin will appreciate forever

1. Fiat supply (debt-backed money) is required to be inflated to infinity to support itself, otherwise the system will crumble. If there is 100 trillion debt, 100 trillion money and 5% interest, you need another 5% of the money supply (5 trillion extra) to repay the debt = new money needs to be created to keep the debt serviced. Compound interest effect has a "compound" effect in the fiat money supply. The ratio of fiat supply:btc supply is ensuring the long-term appreciation of BTC, but it'll take a while longer in order for BTC's inflation to slow down a bit.

2. Gold/silver output is also getting inflated by new mining output. While it may be better compared to fiat, it still has uncertainties in its inflation model like "what if a large gold deposit is found that is a game changer" or what happens if new mining techniques increase the output dramatically.

In light of the above two, I believe it's hardly relevant whether people cash out or not as the existing maximum supply is fixed for BTC. Sure, if someone cashes out a million coins it can have a bearish effect on price, but in the long run it won't matter that much.
1905  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: Hi guys !! Urgent help needed !! How do you say FUNGIBLE in greek ? on: August 05, 2015, 08:04:53 PM
Ok understood... In terms of the word or sentence / paragraph etc, if you want a specific translation that will cover it or its explanation, point out the english one and I'll do my best for the greek one, with the limitation being the word fungible itself.

 Must be a linguistic thing... fungible exists in Spanish, Portuguese and French. It's derived from latin, so maybe there is no direct translation. Was hoping there was.

 Given the context of the recording, where fungibility will not be explained, but important as reference, I think it's best to say something like

"... in the english language "fungible" ... "

...το οποίο στην αγγλική γλώσσα λέγεται "fungible"...."

Quote
3 scenarios were put up while writing the original text in English.

 a) people will have no clue and won't give a damn what it is

Most probable. I have yet to meet a single Greek person who knows what fungibility is

Quote
b) people already know what it is and appreciate the meaning/context

Too remote a possibility.

Quote
c) people will have no clue but be curious and investigate what fungibility is all about.

If a short description is provided, no investigation will even be necessary Cheesy

Quote
Ok guys, so there is consensus there is no direct translation. I am comforted by that as at least my friend will not have the burden of translating it, and we can figure out a quick workaround.

 Thank you all very much !!  If you still want to contribute with ideas, I'll be very grateful !

The greek language is made in a way which when there is no word for something, you can create it right there and then. However, just because someone will create a word, doesn't mean that anyone else knows it, although the meaning can usually be derived by the components.

Ι'd probably use αμφαλλάξιμο ή αμφιλλάξιμο ή ισοποιοτικό, by merging some prefixes and words, if I had to invent a word. But I would check with a linguist for the correctness of my "proposal".
1906  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: Hi guys !! Urgent help needed !! How do you say FUNGIBLE in greek ? on: August 05, 2015, 05:12:59 PM
Ok understood... In terms of the word or sentence / paragraph etc, if you want a specific translation that will cover it or its explanation, point out the english one and I'll do my best for the greek one, with the limitation being the word fungible itself.
1907  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: Hi guys !! Urgent help needed !! How do you say FUNGIBLE in greek ? on: August 05, 2015, 11:55:41 AM
Maybe I should have mentioned, this is for a voice over recording next Thursday  Shocked ....  maybe "fungible", if not translatable, could be broken down into a quick explanatory expression?

 for ex :   "... it is *exchangeable* - as in English "fungible  - because etc etc ... "    ?

Suggestions welcome!

It is exchangeable one for one, with every _____ being equal in quality to another _____.

Είναι ανταλλάξιμο ένα προς ένα, με κάθε _____ να είναι ποιοτικά ίδιο με κάποιο άλλο _____.




 Thank Alex.
 
 For the sake of technical accuracy for the financial folk out there, do you think I should include something like "like the english word "fungible" ?

 You see, this is particularly important as it is a recording explaining a crypto. Fungible is essence does mean "exchangeable".

You can exchange 1 BTC for another BTC, but that is not fungibility at all in when we talk about value/money. Fungibility implies that one item cannot be distinguished from another, meaning, for example, if 5 people put 1 EURO coins into a bag and each take out an EURO back, no one can possibly know who's EURO belonged to who in the first place.

 So absolutely, they are interchangeable, but the is only half of the story. Each unis has to be identical to the other so they cannot be distinguished.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-fungibility-essential/

Technically speaking, and to be 100% technically accurate, each unit in crypto (coins like DASH) is distinguishable. For example one coin might be from a certain unspent block that has just been mined, and another one might have been used in the past, mixed slightly, or mixed heavily. So, you have one "clean" coin that has never been used or mixed, and then you have another which hasn't been used or mixed and these do have differences in quality.

In any case, using a parenthesis like (eng: fungible) would not be a bad idea.
1908  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: Hi guys !! Urgent help needed !! How do you say FUNGIBLE in greek ? on: August 05, 2015, 12:22:42 AM
Maybe I should have mentioned, this is for a voice over recording next Thursday  Shocked ....  maybe "fungible", if not translatable, could be broken down into a quick explanatory expression?

 for ex :   "... it is *exchangeable* - as in English "fungible  - because etc etc ... "    ?

Suggestions welcome!

It is exchangeable one for one, with every _____ being equal in quality to another _____.

Είναι ανταλλάξιμο ένα προς ένα, με κάθε _____ να είναι ποιοτικά ίδιο με κάποιο άλλο _____.




1909  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or gold? on: August 02, 2015, 05:01:29 PM
Oh and also, why would you want to carry shit load of gold anyway? let's discuss problems which actually matter Wink

You don't want to carry it around. It's more like store of value.

1910  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: July 24, 2015, 12:54:53 PM

Quote
France's biggest bank BNP Paribas is planning to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds, a move which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, according to a source at the bank.

If they actually do this...  Cool

depends how many they add. 1? 2?

institutional, means not less than 100,000.00 or something i guess

Even at $500 avg buying cost, 100.000 BTCs would cost them... 50 million USD. Which is nothing for institutional investors.
1911  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: July 24, 2015, 01:03:24 AM
https://medium.com/blockcypher-blog/a-bitcoin-spam-attack-post-mortem-s-la-ying-alive-654e914edcf4

This attack was too cheap
Consider this rough estimate of the attack’s cost. Before the spam attack, blocks were about half full, with an average of ~750 transactions each. To fill the block, the attacker had to pay fees to miners who confirmed the blocks containing their transactions. Consequently, the attacker paid fees on ~750 transactions per block * 6 blocks an hour * 24 hours a day * 15,000 satoshi average fee = 16.2BTC per day. At an average of $280/BTC, the attack cost the attacker $4,536 a day to fill a 1MB block.

$4,536 a day buys you a Bitcoin denial of service attack.


A “new normal” in higher fees:- 'But $0.10, instead of $0.05, makes a difference if you live on $100.'

There are no double spends with instantX as such are there?   Grin



Some frustrated people had to wait a day or more for their transactions to confirm. Some transactions never confirmed. In other words, some people had bitcoin they couldn’t spend.

 Holy McFlop !!

 Not doubting this math at all, but if true, this is very very very disconcerting. Any bad actor with a pet whale can seriously do quite some serious damage to the bitcoin network.

 March 2016 for the potential hard fork is it?  That is eons in crypto time... holy moly...

Can't they modify the bitcoin wallet to make on-the-fly calculations on the fees required for 1conf transactions?

Meaning that depending the network queue, you would simply be informed on how much you need to get top priority and then either pay that or line up in the queue. It would seem like an easy fix, except that it could then be used to create a competition of escalating fees (which is good for miners though).
1912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 13, 2015, 11:10:59 AM
1) Greek capital controls remain in place, ATM withdrawals are at 50/60 euros per day, no matter the deal. Which means the only way for buying something from abroad is BTC.

2) There is increased risk for bail-in, which is far "better" pump material than capital controls

The deal has not solved any of the fundamental banking issues.
1913  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: July 12, 2015, 12:45:13 AM

Regarding

Quote
The current goals of development can be summed up pretty simple by saying that, in the short term, we are focusing on making Dash much more accessible to the general public. This includes an Android wallet, iPhone wallet and a very stable version of the reference client.

...given that one of the "core" markets is the privacy market,
....given that the use of DASH without IP obfuscation is not very suitable for a private currency,
.....given that the general public wants easy solutions and if you get too technical in telling them how to set up various anonymity extensions you lost the potential user and you could marginalize the use of DASH

...I think we need to implement a built-in IP obfuscation system that works out of the box from the wallet client.
1914  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: July 10, 2015, 07:29:16 PM
Is this the start of a pump, or what?

i think its the middle of a pump, at least i hope it is (i dont think my heart can take it if it turns out this is just the start of a pump  Wink)

Middle? With just 20-25% rise? Prior pumps have seen action like 2x to 4-5x of the price.
1915  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: July 10, 2015, 07:18:05 PM
Is this the start of a pump, or what?
1916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2015, 05:34:43 PM
With ~8% of the votes counted, NO is at 60%.

I'm sorry, but could you please link us to where this poll is located?  I'm having trouble finding the sources :-/
prices a bit more stable now (If we're looking at the last few minutes, haha)


Ok link available now: http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html#{%22cls%22:%22main%22,%22params%22:{}}

Second line (now 17%) is percentage of the total counted so far.
1917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2015, 05:22:57 PM
With ~8% of the votes counted, NO is at 60%.

I'm sorry, but could you please link us to where this poll is located?  I'm having trouble finding the sources :-/
prices a bit more stable now (If we're looking at the last few minutes, haha)


I'm watching greek tv... so no links...

edit: oh, poster above posted a screen cap from a greek tv channel.
1918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2015, 05:14:56 PM
With ~8% of the votes counted, NO is at 60%.
1919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2015, 11:50:08 AM
Real pump material is when ECB demands greek bank account haircut...  Wink
1920  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: July 04, 2015, 12:38:30 AM

Yep, the time to adopt crypto was ...yesterday for Greece. If people don't want to get cut off from international payments, they should be "prepped" and loaded with some crypto. Spain, Portugal, Italy etc can actually buy crypto right now, unlike Greece.

AlexGR

I don't think thats a very useful appraisal. Nobody is ever prepped and loaded for anything. Just look at your own country.

Crypto needs to work when people are NOT "prepped and loaded" otherwise it's useless. I just outlined one scenario where crypto could be deployed without recourse to existing liquidity. If I can think of one in 10 seconds after reading a newspaper article, I'm sure there are a myriad of others.

One of the problems is that we all pontificate on here as if we're miles ahead of everyone else in our thinking - in actual fact we're just as stuck in the mindset as they are.

We project legacy paradigms onto new technology such as the one that you have proposed which is that we need access to an existing monetary medium in order to introduce a new one. I'm sorry but that simply isn't true and the derivatives market is the proof. A quadrilion's worth of monetary media was created without anyone having ever accessed anywhere near that amount in fiat currency.

The example I gave above may be naive in financial engineering terms but it isn't in principle. It represents the very basis on which modern economies work.

I suggest you read it again.

I read it, and in some cases it can work with people thinking outside of the box, but it won't be the rule in a society where even electronic transactions were always frowned upon, compared to cash. And remember, people believe right now that the situation is temporary. When they realize capital controls are here to stay, they'll start seeking alternatives and some will definitely stumble upon crypto. But there are ways that favor the inertia of the old system, like using banks from nearby EU / EZ countries that will seem more "familiar" and "comfortable".
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