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1921  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 08, 2013, 01:40:51 AM
wow, look at all those coins suddenly leave (manipulation) the order book, must all of a sudden  be a real sign (manipulation) of confidence in the price going up! hurrah (manipulation)! y'all buy those bytecoins right quick now (manipulation)!



Or just a function of coins being bought.

Exactly. There were about 17k coins on the ask wall up to $77 when move started at $68, which matches an ask BTC drop from 150k to 133k.
1922  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 07, 2013, 10:30:01 PM
all buy before it's to late Smiley ..  

I agree.
People keep talking about lows in the 50s as if it hasn't happened since the $266. But it has been in the 50s twice. This was a much larger fall than the 2011 crash which initially went from $31 to $10 and took 2 months to go below that. Markets never do exactly the same thing. So this time the post-peak low looks to have happened fast. Today. three months on we have likely seen the nearest approach ($65) to the previous lows. Anyone at the end of 2013 looking at the market firmly above $100 will be kicking themselves for staying all out when it was trading at $70
1923  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 07, 2013, 08:12:30 AM
Is the market doing something new?

It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.

1924  Economy / Speculation / Re: how low will we go before we hit bottom? on: July 05, 2013, 06:30:30 AM
We have already had a low of $50.01

The low-down or highlight is: any low higher than that will be a higher low, not the lowest low which is commonly known as a bottom!
1925  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Winklevii Tiwns Warn that Bitcoin May Become Illegal on: July 05, 2013, 05:58:13 AM
Total non-story.  Read any company's SEC filing and you will find a laundry list of potential risks (both real and far fetched).  This is nothing more than the twins and their lawyers doing some CYA disclosures.

Absolutely correct. The OP is FUD as the SEC filing has to include warnings for investors. Cryptocurrency is new so there are many unknowns. Similar warnings must have accompanied the PartyPoker float, with respect to online gambling. Indeed any completely new business has the risk of a heavy-boot regulatory response.

Is it really that common to see a prospectus warning that the asset investors will be betting on may become illegal?  I'd be happy to see other examples.  That was my only point.

OK. Sorry. I really meant the headline for the article which you had to quote in the OP. The Ws were obliged to make the warning which people will (and are) taking right out of context.
 
I found a reference to the partypoker IPO which I had in mind for a similar example:

"Their prospectus issued on Wednesday stated that their activity may be considered illegal in the US and "There is a significant risk that criminal or civil judgments may be sought against the group of directors."

http://blog.pokerwords.com/2005/06/party-poker-ipo-again.html
1926  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Winklevii Tiwns Warn that Bitcoin May Become Illegal on: July 05, 2013, 02:22:45 AM
Total non-story.  Read any company's SEC filing and you will find a laundry list of potential risks (both real and far fetched).  This is nothing more than the twins and their lawyers doing some CYA disclosures.

Absolutely correct. The OP is FUD as the SEC filing has to include warnings for investors. Cryptocurrency is new so there are many unknowns. Similar warnings must have accompanied the PartyPoker float, with respect to online gambling. Indeed any completely new business has the risk of a heavy-boot regulatory response.
1927  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 04, 2013, 10:11:37 PM
as someone who sold at 72 and watching the price climb up it is ruining my evening and driving me nuts.

Don't worry - we'll be trading in the $60's before you know it.

We will see $103 before any adventures in the $60s, with the high target a couple of weeks away from now.
1928  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Bitcoin Foundation receives cease and desist order from California on: July 04, 2013, 09:56:45 PM
Although the BF response is very good the glaring inconsistency is arguing that Bitcoin is not a store of value, but also should be treated the same way as the Mexican peso for sales. Despite its poor track record the peso is very much a store of value while it remains a viable national currency.
1929  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 04, 2013, 06:26:19 AM
Where's all the bulls?  Why is nobody buying?  It's so "cheap". Forum full of people who claim to believe in Bitcoin and there is no buying pressure.  This forum is all talk and hot air.   Roll Eyes
They just enter the login and password at this time Cheesy

Different question. Where are the sellers now? Sell side looking thin and $72 the low for a while. Are those bulls with orders in the 60s going to sit back as it retraces to $100?
1930  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-07-03 CBS News - Winklevoss trust will test Bitcoin security concerns on: July 03, 2013, 11:45:26 PM
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57592240/winklevoss-trust-will-test-bitcoin-security-concerns/

More discussion about the Winklevoss ETF, and then some educational discussion about Bitcoin... based on an interview with me!  Smiley

Well done!

Regarding security. People need to keep perspective. Security for cash and gold has been an age-old concern, not a new concern with Bitcoin. $11 million placed anywhere, even in a fund or a bank, has risks. MF Global and Laiki Bank customers thought their millions were safe, but the money simply vanished.
1931  Economy / Speculation / Re: I get the impression this forum turned bearish, contra indicator? on: July 03, 2013, 11:39:56 AM
If we are all bearish, maybe we are all out.

So the price can't decline anymore.

BUY BUY BUY !!!  Grin

lol Smiley that would certainly explain why price goes up after everyone turns bearish

Aha, indeed, this is the secret of market turning points.
1932  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Blockchain Compression on: July 03, 2013, 11:32:39 AM
"Ultimate blockchain compression" does not compress the block chain. It's misnamed.

The most important piece of the chain is the unspent outputs set (UTXO set). This is already highly compressed using a custom compression algorithm. The rest of the chain is not compressed, but the solution to growth there is called pruning, which allows for deletion of old data.

Yes, you are technically right, but "compression" captures the thrust of the Reiner-Maaku project for public consumption. I see this as the single most important piece of work being done on Bitcoin at the moment as it partly addresses the long-term scalability problem.
1933  Economy / Services / Re: Selling Signature Ad Space - PM Me with Offer and Content on: July 03, 2013, 04:24:43 AM
Interesting, but the amount is so low  Tongue

I was hoping for someone to swoop in and permanently buy out my sig space.

Rather than sell your sig space, what about just using the same same text as I have?
1934  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Wow, Yahoo Finance is downright idiotic on: July 03, 2013, 04:19:57 AM
This one quote in particular is painfully bad.

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/winklevosses-trying-bring-bitcoin-mainstream-investors-171834667.html

Quote
Imagine every dollar in your wallet being worth anywhere from $13 to $266 depending on what an anonymous trader decides at any given moment. ...

This is just infantile. They must be paying the Teletubbies to write their articles.
1935  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-06-30 Forbes: Dethroning The Dollar: The Yuan, The Bitcoin, And Other 'Usur on: July 02, 2013, 06:38:32 AM
Let's not forget the currency hasn't been there for 5,000 years... maybe 100-500?

The yuan dates from about 1910, so 100 years indeed. Prior to that the Chinese had many currencies but had a special fondness for the silver standard. The general point is that even their latest currency is not a serious contender for world reserve status.
1936  Economy / Economics / Re: BTC/USD fx rate back onto 3-year trendline on: July 02, 2013, 06:31:27 AM
I appreciate the effort but without more information this chart is of dubious value. What is the trendline based on? Unless it's based on stats and/or financial indicators then there's just too much room for curve-fitting and, effectively, useless.

There is no magic. The chart is average daily mtgox values, presented on a log chart with a least squares straight line (exponential, of course). Obviously the future is hypothetical, but this is the best fit projection using known data.
1937  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: So what happens if Gox misses their deadline in one week? on: July 02, 2013, 02:50:03 AM
Mt Gox could register with Delaware, where the frozen account is located. That would be a good start.
1938  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 02, 2013, 12:02:39 AM
Re the twins, the application talks about the issue price being a weighted average across exchanges on a particular date (27th June is stated, but I think it is for example purposes and subject to change) ... this would imply that they are backing it with their own coins to me. Trying to read thru it while watching this at the same time  Tongue

It's a good read in terms of 'risk factors' ... they do a good job of explaining the pros and cons of BTC.

So far to me it sounds like they want to sell paper backed by their coins and earn a fee for managing the ETF ... that there is a fee is explicitly stated ... size of basket will go down due to fees etc.

Well, look on the bright side, at least they are not selling them now on the exchange !

In their techcrunch interview they said they started buy in the "high single digits" (late 2012). So they were certainly part of the reason for the initial ramp from $10 through the old high of $31.
1939  Economy / Economics / BTC/USD fx rate back onto 3-year trendline on: July 01, 2013, 11:43:47 PM


As of July 1st the long-term trendline has been touched (and crossed today). If the logarithmic growth-rate remains intact it will need to be supported by continued merchant take-up, more "ecosystem" applications and increased transaction volumes.
1940  Other / Politics & Society / Re: "Dollar headed for 'multi-year rally' " on: July 01, 2013, 11:15:19 PM


Oh no. Poor dollar holders getting pulverized...
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