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1941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 23, 2013, 12:58:09 PM
Hi folks, did you pick up anything in the fire sale? Grin

only 3 coins, yeah, big profits, I know  Roll Eyes
1942  Economy / Speculation / Re: LOL at the sellers on: March 23, 2013, 12:44:12 PM

Not young anyway
1943  Economy / Speculation / Re: Don't fight a bull trap (worth reading) on: March 23, 2013, 12:41:40 PM


I thought you sold 99% of your BTCs and were through with trading?

Then the bear trap came and I made a tidy profit 30 mins later.

It's an addiction. I'm working on it, but yeah... it's hard when there are so many suckers out there.

So you made huge mistakes trading yet you're still giving advice?

Huh? He sold before the drop and he made a profit buying back in, how is that a mistake?
1944  Economy / Speculation / Re: Don't fight a bull trap (worth reading) on: March 23, 2013, 12:05:20 PM
Disclaimer: I am currently 25% BTC, 75% $

A bull trap occurs when you get a bullish signal on a stock only to watch that stock fall further and further down. When a situation like this happens it is important to remember not to fight it. Don’t put more money into a losing position trying to force it to go back up, (unless you have several billions of dollars of play money of course.)

Every investor and trader will get caught on the wrong side of a trade from time to time no matter how good of a trader they are. You can lessen how often it will happen by looking at things like trends, and fundamentals of a company. But nothing can eliminate bad trades altogether.
So, what do you do when you’re caught in the middle of a trap? The most important thing to do is to cut your losses short. The smaller your losses are when you are wrong the less they will affect your account.

The way to succeed trading the stock market is not to never make mistakes and always pick good stocks. We will all make mistakes from time to time we are not perfect and the signals that we trade off of are not perfect either.

The secret of making money in the long term as a trader is to make sure your losses are small and your winners are huge. If you get into a stock that heads down you can always cut your losses short and move onto the next trade. If you keep your losses short you do not need to win big on the next trade in order to come back from it.

If you do not get out of a bad trade early or even add to the bad trade it can drastically increase your loss for the stock. This means your next winner will have to be huge just to make up for the previous loss, and if you want to be profitable overall your winners have to be that much bigger.

Something my dad always taught me is when you are digging yourself in a whole; the first thing to do is to stop digging. It is the same when trading stocks. If you are losing money on a bull trap the first thing you should do is to stop putting money into that stock.

That is why it is considered a buy signal when a stock is at support. If a stock breaks support it is likely that it will continue to go lower and it is time to get out of that position. In other words by buying at support or close to it you can easily exit with a small loss if the stock breaks lower, and let it run if it continues to go up and make higher highs.

It is impossible to predict exactly what will happen next, regardless of what method you use. So reacting and preparing for all possible situations is essential to making a decent return.


I thought you sold 99% of your BTCs and were through with trading?
1945  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: sealswithclubs.eu on: March 23, 2013, 10:26:06 AM
Down for two days...anyone know what's going on?

DDOS attack
1946  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 2013-03-22: JPMorgan On The Inevitability Of Europe-Wide Capital Controls on: March 23, 2013, 10:23:57 AM
Sorry about that. Where should articles that have an impact on the future of Bitcoin go?

Np, either "economics" subforum or general "bitcoin discussion" I would say.
As the OP, you can move it yourself (bottom left).
1947  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 23, 2013, 09:15:19 AM
Cmon guys, second dip, it barely missed majority of my buys, only picked up 3 measly coins for cheap...
1948  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 23, 2013, 01:03:28 AM
He probably went all in a long time ago, like when we went back up to USD 3 from USD 2 in 2011 (if my memory doesn't fail me).

Also he's my favorite/most-reliable rally indicator, I would go all in if I wasn't already Grin

But as a serious note, I think a little correction might be in the cards, maybe whiping away last few days gains. I'm not going to bet on it though, the few extra bucks aren't worth the risk.

$80 by/on Tuesday seems very likely to me.  
1949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 23, 2013, 12:49:10 AM
Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?

Yes. The creator of Bitfinex has pointed this out several times. Once a position gets a margin call, the Bitfinex platform is taking the risk for getting that position actually liquidated. Of course, this means, that in case of an extreme situation, when the market price slips away catastrophically, the platform can go bankrupt. This is an essential risk of any Contract-for-Difference platform.  Thus, for a lender, this is the essential counterparty risk.

What the platform can do is to have some kind of insurance contract. And if I understand the latest announcement(*) from the Platform operator correct, he is currently negotiating with some investors exactly for this purpose. He is also about to get this thing properly incorporated. Right now it is labelled as "beta", but has taken on some momentum during this rally.


(*) see this message in the ProjectDevelopment section

Thanks man, good information.  Seems like an interesting platform, but proper insurance is a very desirable thing in a market as volatile as bitcoin (especially with gox lagging out at criticial times and all).
1950  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 2013-03-22: JPMorgan On The Inevitability Of Europe-Wide Capital Controls on: March 23, 2013, 12:44:36 AM

There is nothing about bitcoin in the article.  Press section should be about bitcoin coming out in the press, not interesting articles.
1951  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 22, 2013, 10:23:57 PM
Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

Where it gets very difficult is if MtGox lags out during the middle of a crash.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?
1952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 22, 2013, 10:14:14 PM
The bitfinex lending US is only up a little.  It was 192k USD before the crash.

I think the lending ratio of USD to BTC is interesting.  200k USD to 200 BTC.  When converted to USD that is a 14:1.  
The ratio keeps going higher as most of the bears were force liquidated (previously it was around 1000 BTC).  The lowest I've seen the ratio was close to 1:1 and that didn't last long.



So how does this bitfinex lending work?  If I read it correctly, you only make money as a lender if the person you have lent to profits?  If he looses, then you just get back the original sum?
1953  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 22, 2013, 08:59:40 PM
Boys place your bids!!!  Gox may not be responsive soon so you've gotta call the bottom NOW!  Grin

This weekend will easily erase the past 2 weeks.  No question.

care to bet on that?

EDIT: haha, check out the bitcoinity 'oh noes' gif, awesome!
EDIT2: gone again
1954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 22, 2013, 08:43:38 PM
Alright, this week's rally is over.  Tune in for $80 next week Smiley

+1
1955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Merchants Increasing on: March 22, 2013, 07:40:13 PM

BTW I don't know who runs the wiki but it loads very slow for me. That may have been because I downloaded every page in the history and they throttled me though.

Its really slow for me as well.
1956  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculation lessons the utility as currency? on: March 22, 2013, 07:36:54 PM
Agree it needs to gain value/market capital but it needs to do so gradually so the number of people with faith in it grows. Wild volatility like this isn't going to help.

In fact this could easily be an attempt by TPTB to scare people out of bitcoin again for a while by pumping it up and crashing it again (buying time seems to be their only plan). It might even it cost them a few $million in losses but that is chump change to them. What would happen if after accumulating over the last few months they suddenly put in a load of offers at $0.1?


We won't have stability until we have a very large market cap.  Bubbles and busts are the natural way to get there.

We have to wait for the self-reinforcing feedback loop of bigger market cap, higher stability and more businesses able to work with bitcoins to play out.
1957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Merchants Increasing on: March 22, 2013, 07:35:16 PM
I'm all about this. Hopefully more will use FoxyCart.com in the future. Smiley

We now not only support Bitcoin via Bitpay, but we accept it ourselves as payment as well. Our 1.1 beta version will probably go live next week.

If someone's interested in setting up an ecommerce store, please keep us in mind. I'm going to be so stoked the first time someone pays for a store with BTC.

I think it will take a lot of critical mass (lots of people into bitcoin) for bitcoin to be truly worth their time/effort for a lot of stores, but we are getting there.  Certain niches are filling up nicely already.
1958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Merchants Increasing on: March 22, 2013, 07:28:40 PM
I would say it isn't as much the quantity of merchants increasing over time at the moment, but rather the quality.
Fewer people selling leftover cheetos from their belly-button, more wordpresses and bitcoinstore.com's.
1959  Economy / Speculation / Re: Toppish behavior, Big Bitcoin Bear Caves on: March 22, 2013, 04:58:51 PM
Hey all, have you seen the "Buttcoin" site?  You have to, its just hilarious.  The guy running it has been downright insulting towards everything bitcoin, writing critical and satirical articles on the Bitcoin community.

Well right on cue he's posted an admission he was wrong, and bitcoin is now a freight train to $100 maybe $1,000.  As with many things financial, when the biggest doubters give in, you might be near a top.  Check out his site: http://buttcoin.org/

For those paying attention i last posted a "yeeha" thread about how i was going recklessly all in at $70.  I now i admit, i was trolling ur asses.  Its a funny thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155991.0

Truly,
The Doob

My guess is this guy does everything in reverse of what he writes.  He accumulated early, now he is selling off. (I guessed your sarc post too  Wink)
1960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 22, 2013, 04:34:38 PM
What the heck is happening over at btc24? The Euro is at high 58s with respectable volume.

its not just btc24, bitcoincentral is even higher, Americans need to catch up (but maybe their funds don't get through).
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