Remember one simple thing, and if you have a bad memory, then write it down and read it every day before breakfast instead of morning prayer - a Russian soldier will never shoot at civilians, he will rather shoot at his commander who gave him such an order. Therefore, absolutely no one in Russia believes in cheap Ukrainian propaganda fakes, it is simply impossible because of the peculiarities of our mentality.

I don't know how events in Ukraine will develop, the future has a probabilistic nature and there are always more than one options. I think the scenario of this operation was developed in the strategic planning center and it has a dozen stages (assuming that the second stage is now underway), with a lot of branches in case of various response options of all involved and interested parties and existing centers of power in the world. I will try to outline in general terms the option that seems to me now the most probable. Ukraine has already lost Crimea, DPR and LPR, just deal with it. Romania will not get Transcarpathia, and Poland will not get the Lviv region - under no circumstances will there be territorial concessions to Europe, let them wipe their drool - they will not receive gifts from Russia. If Poland does not heed the exhortations of NATO and turns its back on Ukraine, it will receive a knockout blow from Russia of such force that NATO will immediately begin to taper to the west. I think there will be no special problems with the entire left bank of the Dnieper, this part of Ukraine is mainly Russian-speaking and pro-Russian. After the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass and the cleansing of the bunker near Azovstal in Mariupol, the question will arise of what to do with western Ukraine, where anti-Russian sentiments are very strong and "demilitarization" by Russian forces can easily turn into a mass genocide. I think here even the active peacekeeping participation of a third conditionally neutral side may be required, and for this China seems to be the most suitable candidate. China has a large, well-trained and disciplined army, and China's army is severely lacking in combat experience amid its evolving conflict with Taiwan (I think China last saw combat in 1979 or so). So there is a greater than zero chance that the Chinese army, supported by precision-guided missile strikes from Russia, will be engaged in the demilitarization of western Ukraine in order to continue to stop the supply of weapons from the West. Ukrainian 600 thousand infantry without the support of armored vehicles and aircraft for China is a light snack, not exceeding its natural population growth per day.

Sometimes it seems to me that some European politicians are not friendly with elementary arithmetic. Europe as a whole imports from Russia 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (of which 100 billion cubic meters are imported by Germany alone). One tanker can bring 50 million cubic meters of liquefied gas, spending a month on the road and a week on unloading. In a year, one tanker can make about ten voyages and bring 500 million cubic meters or 0.5 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. It will take 400 tankers to provide Europe with gas not by pipeline, but by transportation by tankers, and there are only 500 of them in the world. Plus, you need to build at least several large terminals for unloading these tankers, which will require 5-6 years of hard work and huge financial investments if you start right now. The number of terminals for receiving liquefied gas in Germany is currently zero (there are none at all). Plus, all these tankers need to be loaded with something, and the United States is now ready to supply a maximum of 15 billion cubic meters (out of the required 200), with a possible increase to 50 billion cubic meters. Plus, it is necessary to somehow convince all buyers from Asia, who are unlikely to be happy with this, to abandon the consumption of liquefied gas. Plus, liquefied gas is 15-60% more expensive than pipeline gas, depending on the season and the terms of long-term contracts with Russia for pipeline gas. This is the current situation with regard to gas, in a nutshell.

Europe seems to be scared to death of Russian nuclear weapons and hastily buying iodine pills, even though Putin's worst weapon against Europe is millions of Ukrainian refugees. Among them there are many adequate normal people who are simply looking for a better life for themselves (and you can’t blame them for this), but there is also a noticeable part of violent nationalists who grew up with the idea of ​​the superiority of the Ukrainian nation and now everyone owes them something. Europe did not believe for a long time that there was Nazism in Ukraine - well, now she will see everything with her own eyes.

This is a very serious test to determine the boundaries of European tolerance - is it tolerant of open manifestations of Nazism? So serious that it can be a matter of life and death.

In modern armed conflict, the one who controls the airspace usually wins. Russia took control of the air in Ukraine in the first hours of the start of the operation, it was then that everything was strategically over for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. That is why, for the entire first week since the start of the operation, Zelensky asked and even demanded that NATO close the airspace over Ukraine - because this is a key moment. Turkey has not joined the economic sanctions against Russia, but as a supplier of Bayraktars, it has done more for Ukraine than the US and Europe combined.

The only real advantage of Ukraine now is a noticeable quantitative superiority in manpower. If the third wave of mobilization is successful, Ukraine can, in 2-3 weeks, bring the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 600 thousand soldiers and gain an advantage of 2-2.5 times over the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, together with the people's militia of Donbass. This is a noticeable advantage, and for defensive battles in urban areas - even overwhelming. And the difficult course of the cleansing of Mariupol shows this well. I am writing this paragraph so that you understand that I am not driven by naked jingoistic patriotism, but by a fairly sober understanding of the situation. Now reread the first paragraph again, because this paragraph does not cancel it.
I think nothing terrible will happen to them, neither mass genocide, nor concentration camps in Siberia, nor torture in the dungeons of the KGB, nor even hard labor in uranium mines. In Russia, in your kitchen at home, you can drink vodka with your friends and scold Putin as much as you like. Putin's rating was very low, it seems, in 2018, when he signed the law on raising the retirement age, although he had previously promised not to do this. The rating of the ruling party "United Russia" is still not too high, the people have not forgiven them for this. In general, people in Russia are very far from politics, well, except for taxi drivers (there is even a saying "it's a pity that everyone who understands politics is already working as taxi drivers and hairdressers"). People don’t hate Ukrainians either, if they don’t jump in front of you shouting “moskolyak to gilyak” and they don’t have a tattoo with a swastika on their forehead. There is rather a misunderstanding of how a fraternal country could lose its original identity in just one generation, ruin a powerful economy and industry inherited from the collapse of the USSR, and turn into an agrarian appendage of Europe with mass glorification of Bandera and the SS division "Galitchina", mixed with gay-parades. So don't worry about the Russian-speaking Ukrainians, or even the Ukrainian speakers - it's just that Russia will take away from you all the weapons more powerful than a hunting double-barreled shotgun and arrange a show trial of the Nazis, so that neither you nor others would be disrespectful. And then live as you want, God will be your judge.

This fundamentally changes the matter, then there is a reasonable grain in this. Of course, Ukraine is of interest to Europe as a donor of natural resources, and of course the current armed conflict violates these plans. I will say more, the Zaporizhzhya NPP is the largest in Europe (not counting Russian nuclear power plants), and its dropping out of the European energy grid directly threatens stable power generation in Europe, primarily in Germany, which has embarked on a policy of abandoning nuclear energy. The degree of Germany's current energy dependence on Russia is uncomfortable for Germany, and it has been looking for ways to get rid of it for years. To do this with the help of Ukraine seems to be not very successful so far, no one promised that it would be easy.

Yes, they are still my friends. You don't have to think the same way to be friends.

You and I are talking here, and the soldiers on the battlefield are doing their job. And the Russian soldiers are doing their job well. Europe's monetary and military aid will not help Ukraine against Russia, just as it has never helped Europe itself. There is no question of "who will win?" There are only questions of the number of victims and the scale of destruction.

There are such friends who are better to have as enemies, so they are at least of some use. But it is more prudent and much more profitable to be friends with Russia than to fight. Russia does not need a devastated Europe, it is beneficial for the United States, but not for Russia. Therefore, Russia does not break ties with Europe in a unilateral fashion, despite the hysteria with sanctions and the anti-Russian rhetoric of a number of European politicians.

Russian soldiers are banned from smartphones for security reasons. The experience of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine, who first post their geolocation on the net, and then a rocket flies there and turns them into a piece of "well done" meat, clearly hints that these precautions are not in vain. They seem to be able to use a regular cell phone to call their families. Smartphones can also be used by operators of reconnaissance drones for official purposes and fighters of the Chechen Kadyrov Regiment (for whom the issue of their combat image in the media space is apparently more important than personal safety).

It was a big mistake for Ukraine to torture and execute Russian prisoners of war on camera. I personally know people with combat experience who a month ago had a neutral or even negative attitude towards this operation, and now they are ready to take up arms again.

I don't think there is any natural resource in Ukraine that Russia would not have enough of. The gas elephant theory is completely out of whack.

Just ask yourself - where did this idea about lightning-fast blitzkrieg come from in your head? What in Russia's actions or statements made you think so? I will answer for you - this idea was inspired by your Ukrainian propaganda. Russia acted quickly in the first few days of the operation, mainly with only one goal - to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces inland from the border with Russia by 100-150 km, so that the most long-range weapons of Ukraine could not shoot at Russian territory from stationary positions. After the successful solution of this problem, there was no special need for haste. Russia's strength is that it can afford to act reasonably slowly. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are not going anywhere from Donbass, watching how Russia slowly closes the encirclement cauldron from the north and south. I think in a month eastern Ukraine will be completely "demilitarized".

I think I got promoted, I'll take that as a compliment.

Cluster warheads are designed to destroy manpower and lightly armored targets; unlike high-explosive ones, they do not cause significant infrastructure damage. Many civilians died in this terrible tragedy, but the railway station itself did not seem to have been particularly affected.

Ural, near Yekaterinburg.

It looks like you are a victim of Western propaganda.

I write here as a private person, for free, in my spare time and not affiliated with any pro-government structures.

Theoretically, I could face up to 15 years in prison for spreading fake news about the military operation in Ukraine. Or there may be trouble with the FSB for divulging information constituting a state secret (this is partly why I try not to pedal the subject of the internal structure of missiles in technical details). I have to pass my posts here through a self-moderation filter, which undoubtedly affects their objectivity and perhaps the overall tone of my posts from this is a little more pro-Russian than my true view of things. This does not mean that I am lying to you, it means that I say a little less than I could say about this.

In Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the nuclear bombs Little and Fat Man were used, with a yield of 13 to 21 kilotons of TNT. Among other things, the Russian army is armed with the old Soviet high-explosive bombs FAB-3000, FAB-5000 and FAB-9000, with a capacity of 1.4 to 4.2 kilotons of TNT. To arrange a scale of destruction comparable to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it is not necessary to use nuclear bombs with their unpleasant side effects in the form of radioactive contamination of the area - it is enough to drop a few good old high-explosive bombs of the middle of the last century.

RosKomNadzor selectively blocks some sites, including this one. Block bypass is technically simple and there is no punishment for it, because there is no corpus delicti.
Thus, I have access to any open information on the network, no matter Russian, Ukrainian or Western.

Geographically, I am now in Russia.

I think I explained in sufficient detail (maybe even too much) why this rocket could not fly from Shakhtyorsk, the question is whether you are capable of listening to reasonable arguments at all? In the previous message, I gave you another thread, by pulling which you can find out the truth - the amount of unburned fuel in the fuel compartment of the tail section. It's up to you what to do with it.

It's OK if you consider me a victim of Russian propaganda or a stupid bum from the couch troops of a slow selective response. I see no point in trying to dissuade you from this.

Isn't the overall position of the Middle East on this issue clear enough? Their answer is "no". The Middle East greatly strengthened its pro-Russian position after the Russian operation in Syria, then the Russians showed the whole world well that they did not abandon their allies even in an extremely difficult situation, when few believed in the ability of the Syrian government to stay in power.

Rumor has it that Arab sheikhs are also very impressed by the participation of a Muslim regiment from Chechnya in the current operation in Ukraine and their media coverage in Kadyrov's telegram. I admit it is rather strange for me to hear exclamations of "Allah Akbar!" from the Russian side, but to strengthen Russia's position in the Middle East, this is a strong move.

If the serial numbers do not mean anything, tell me why they are retouched in the reports of the Ukrainian media? The serial number of the tail section of the rocket was found out only thanks to the report of the Italian media.
The distance in a straight line between Shakhtyorsk and Kramatorsk is 105 km. The maximum flight range of the Tochka-U missile is 120 km. When flying to the maximum range, the fuel in the rocket burns out completely, the fuel compartment of the rocket tail from Kramatorsk burned out offhand by about a third - that is, the rocket flew to the target about 40 km (which is in good agreement with the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that the strike was delivered from a distance of 45 km).

Tochka-U cannot maneuver and flies along a ballistic trajectory. If the missile was not shot down by missile defense (and the missile from Kramatorsk was not shot down by missile defense), then by the relative position of the tail and the epicenter of the impact, it is possible to determine with an accuracy of 10-15 degrees from which direction the missile flew. In combination with the information from the previous paragraph, it is possible to determine quite accurately where the rocket was launched from, and this is not Shakhtyorsk.

Moderate your narrow-minded emotions, you just do not understand the issue and let's leave it to those who understand. If the rocket flew 105 km from Shakhtyorsk, the remnants of the tail section would be much shorter due to the burning out of more fuel, is that clearer? The provocation of Ukraine is absolutely ridiculous and is designed so that no one will seriously understand what happened, the main thing is to create a newsbreak.

I'm not a prosecutor, why do I even need to prove something? The burden of proof lies with the accusing party, in the event of this provocation, Ukraine falsely accuses Russia of launching a missile strike with a Ukrainian missile from the territory controlled by Ukraine into the territory also controlled by Ukraine. And Ukraine does not bother to provide any evidence!

Such complex products as a rocket consist of many nodes, assembled at the factory on the same numbers, and each internal node has this number, not painted, but stamped in metal (there are at least a dozen of them inside the preserved tail section). And at the Votkinsk Machine-Building Plant, where this particular rocket was made, the archive has paper accounting documents for each copy, including which military unit it was delivered to.

I did not expect that the serial number would come up so quickly, especially since the Ukrainian media diligently obscured it in their reports. But the Italian journalists showed the video without retouching, special thanks to them.

Shame on the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fire cluster munitions at their own civilians, this is the style and methods of the Syrian terrorists from ISIS (banned in Russia).

The prototype of the digital ruble platform was created in December 2021, and on February 15, 2022, testing began.

I will give only two figures to show how strong the Russian economy is:
1. The 2022 budget includes an oil price of $45 per barrel. Even by selling oil to India at a 30% discount, Russia gets about $25 in excess profits from every barrel that goes to the National Welfare Fund.
2. Europe buys Russian gas for about a billion dollars a day and the embargo on Russian gas in Europe is not even seriously discussed.