Not necessary. A simple 20% drop in the dow over 2 months is enough to be considered a bear market.


Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp



That said, I believe we will be testing 80 and 50 again in the short to mid term.

Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO.  The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.

Actually it sounds kind of sad, its almost like you are trying to justify your lack of social skills.

It's like back in high school when people would say the same type of thing, like: "in 20 years the nerds will be the jock's bosses" or "the popular kids now will be pumping gas and the nerds will all be rich".

The problem is, that isn't even remotely true, its wish-fulfillment fantasy.

An online exchange, bitcoin-otc, or FTF meeting locally.  I've heard silk road has people that sell cash for BTC, but I stay away from the darknet so I don't know.

+1

The fact that the highs are dropping shows the increasing pessimism. The highs aren't going up because people don't believe that they can sell them for as high of a price as they could last month.  In other words, the price that people think they can sell bitcoins for is going down, so people will only buy back in at a lower price.

Not at all, it is definitely something that has to be considered when we are looking at price.  Mining cost vs production is something I would consider in fundamental analysis.

For now. But I think we are much more likely to retest 50 than we are 160 or (even more unlikely) 266.

My mistake.

That is the current 6 month chart from bitcoinity. Notice how the chart extends past april 30? Yeah.

You really are the worst poster on this forum.

Yes, the highs have been getting lower and lower.  Your line shows a possible long term trend, mine shows what is happening right now in the short to mid term.



Yes, and a silly forum poll doesn't change that.  Again, look back at threads from a month ago and compare them to now.  The hype machine is definitely more quiet now; No more threads about people taking out loans to buy BTC, no more $10,000 bitcoin threads, no more shouting down every bearish comment, no more bull celebration threads.  Sentiment is definitely much lower.

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

Nope, still trading steadily  below the old support $120.  The new top of $160 (from immediately after the crash to $50) hasn't been tested, and it doesn't look like it will be soon.

Still definitely a bear market.

Gold has a lot of utility beyond a store of value, though (jewelry, electronics, medicine, dentistry, chemical catalyst, etc, etc) which is why it has retained its value for thousands of years.  

BTC is useless beyond being a currency or speculative commodity.

I don't think they are really very comparable at all (beyond what I mentioned a couple posts up).

A highly overinflated price driven by hype, fear, and speculation and is also prone to heavy market manipulation?

Yeah, I'd say that BTC is similar to gold in that respect.

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I think systems like that encourage an echo chamber mentality and discourages meaningful discussion about controversial topics.

Plenty of times.  Most of the way up to 30 in 2011 and from the point we hit singles (after the 2011 crash) all the way up to about 13 last year.  I've been bullish for a far greater amount of time than I have been bearish on the market.

That's what some of you keep failing to understand.

Just because I think BTC is currently way overvalued, and strongly believe the market is going back down, does not mean I am against bitcoin. In fact, it's quite the opposite. I think for BTC to succeed, its boom and bust economy must fail in favor of a real economy that grows at a natural rate (as opposed to the current economy which is being driven by hype and speculation)...the reality is that we are not even close to that yet.

You know what? I stopped reading right there.

Its obvious that you are being disingenuous with your arguments and have no intention of actually discussing this.