Thank You for the data.
So basically, we have 21.4221% probability of 'at most' 1462 blocs found while 1493.16 blocks are expected. This is well in the realm of possibility.
So basically, we have 21.4221% probability of 'at most' 1462 blocs found while 1493.16 blocks are expected. This is well in the realm of possibility.
Don't feel bad for taking MadScientist75 at his word, once. From this point forward, you should double check all of his starting assumptions, all of his data, all of his calculations and all of his conclusions. Those of us that know MadScientist75, know to do this.
I think the person who mentioned standard deviation earlier in the thread was doing so as a slight to MadScientist75. It is a #btcguild inside joke that stems from this little gem:
Jul 26 20:40:25 <sonicrules1234> Mad7Scientist: Are you using standard deviation anywhere in your equations?
Jul 26 20:40:43 <Mad7Scientist> sonicrules1234, what is standard deviation?
Hilarity follwed. You can grep the online logs for #btcguild if you want the whole conversation.
Anyway, Eleutheria already put this thread to bed with actual math and actual data. So I don't get to have fun with it.