He already said he ordered from BFL.

Some of the risks that you ignore with ASIC mining:

When you quote returns in dollars, you imply a stable BTC to USD exchange rate. That is masking one of the largest risk factors in mining BTC which would be a collapse in the exchange rate.

Also, people may not be using Bitcoin 1.0 at some point in the future but some alternate virtual currency (perhaps Bitcoin 2.0) that solved unforeseen issues that cropped up and rendered Bitcoin obsolete. This new currency may not be compatible with current ASICs.

Bitcoin mining is a zero sum game. A new competitor that enters the mining hardware market with a 5-10x improvement in price/performance would render existing ASIC hardware (which is really first generation stuff and can be improved upon) as obsolete as GPUs are now.

More entrants with first generation ASIC hardware flood the market and the Bitcoin network hashrate spikes even higher. This in combination with a short term exchange rate crash could render large rigs unprofitable for an extended period.

ASIC hardware could have a short operational lifetime due to hardware failures. A MTBF of 500 hours would crush everyone's anticipated returns.

If you bought a windmill rig, you could rely on long term contracts with your local utility. It is also a reasonable assumption that people will still be using electricity over the next 2 years. Windmills are designed and manufactured by firms with lots of experience and mature product lines (like GE), so we can rely on them to operate for extended periods of time. Thus buying a windmill rig is much less risky that mining Bitcoins, and it's return reflects this.

Avalon users (and other ASIC deployments)  have already captured the ASIC first mover advantage. The bitcoin network hash rate has already quadrupled from the pre-ASIC strength (~20TH to ~80TH). Further shipments of ASICs will increase the network hash rate, but they are unlikely to quadruple it over the course of a couple of months.

If you are already a miner then there are really only two scenarios to consider:
Scenario A: BFL can't deliver in bulk. Then they will not affect the hash rate which means you do not have to have more ASICs to keep earning returns. Therefore you do not need to order from BFL.
Scenario B: BFL can deliver in bulk. Then you can wait until they do and then order from them. They are able to keep up to marketplace demand. The lack of a "second move advantage" means you will not miss out on the "early hasher gets the easy difficulty" time period. You might miss out on 2 weeks of +25% returns as the hash rate goes from 80TH to 100TH.

So, no rush. No dams.

First time I have agreed with Inaba.

The bolded statement is correct. I can produce a quote from Josh.
What BFL is *actually* doing is irrelevant and impossible to know until after they ship in bulk.

Maybe his account got hacked? 

Those two statements are not mutually exclusive. They have new boards coming in, and still might use the same boards for all 3.

Really?
Clearly, this is not BFL's fault but instead it is the fault of people totally unrelated to BFL.
Also, you can't use the BFL forums or support infrastructure to resolve your issue because orange and the letter P.

For now, I will merely eat some

I think people got it from what you said in the shoutbox over at butterflylabs.com
Pitty: so that bfl picture of the big wafer - it went in the bin ?
Josh: Yeah, that one was mostly trashed.

Here is a thread about it on your forums:
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/2219-ls-single-update-josh.html

But you are right about one thing, a troll made up some stuff. 

I checked my motherboard, a DVD drive, a video card from Nvidia, and a video card from AMD. They all had the FCC compliance logo on them.
I popped open an old phone, it had it on the inside of the case.

Woosh, there went their customers passwords.
I hope they salted their hashes. 
I hope they hashed them.

This is fairly straightforward. They promised


but they are delivering



So they need permission to do the switch. If they actually deliver the hash power, I don't think anyone will care the form factor changed. Power consumption is disappointing, but at the current exchange rate and network hash power it is a non-issue. This is actually a sign from BFL that they are acting in a professional fashion to inform their user base.

The heat issues were so severe that I doubt they escaped notice under any circumstances. The product needs to be able to function for a reasonable period of time to test for RF leakage. It is not just an on/off sort of test. I would imagine if they actually got certification that it would have been paraded in front of the naysayers as proof that a product existed.

It is only because they had to redesign the whole thing that we are even talking about any of this. They were in a serious marketing war with Avalon and bASIC at the time and could not afford to show any weakness lest their investors start ask for refunds.

Precisely. Nobody would have brought it up if BFL hadn't made statements about their progress with the process. Since we are going over BFLs statements about their progress, it is germane to the conversation.

He has a point, since in many posts I am quoting an assertion made by Inaba that has turned out to be false.

So after analysis of Josh's statements we have the following situtation:

The boards *might* be done.
There are no chips for the boards.
They *might* have chips by the end of the week, but no firm date for delivery.
They still need to get the firmware working, no time estimate for that either.
There *might* be electrical & physical issues with the new boards.
And of course, yet another "gonna ship next week." but only if everything goes perfectly in a project where almost nothing goes right.

A false statement that was Intentionally misleading regarding a material aspect of product development is the only thing I am trying to prove.

Indeed.

Yet another evasion. Josh never addresses how in November he claimed to have 3 working products sent for certification testing. Yet the Jalapeno as designed was untenable and could never have worked. The mini-rig was an absolute fantasy given its 7500W power profile. One Single barely limped into the dubious category of shipped without leaving BFL on April 1st. We now know BFL had serious problems with development (finally). If you had just admitted that you needed to do a complete redesign in October, I wouldn't be here typing this.


Followed by his standard tactic of insulting those who dare to disagree or question him.