The ROI isnt an AMT exclusive problem. The same applies to pretty much all asics out there. However, I would worry that AMT apparently seem unable to ship even the bitfury/Technobit gear. Those boards are in ample supply (>1000 units last I checked). Plugging them in a mATX case along with a controller (Pi or whatever) and PSU would take what, 30 minutes if you have 2 left hands? Whats the holdup there? As for the 28nm gear; Bitmine just posted an update. The good news is that their first chip is hashing and apparently meeting spec (25GH and the board, without taking AC-DC conversion of the PSU in to account, drawing 0.78J/GH, in line with their stated spec of ~0.6J/GH for the chip alone). The not so good news, apart from 20 chips for selected developers, other test samples will go out mid January for a PCB design contest. Think about that for a second, and then consider the chances of Clenell getting his fully populated miner next week, drawing 0.25- 0.5J/GH at the wall from guys that apparently cant manage to hotglue a few off the shelve PCBs in to an off the shelve mATX case. Yeah, didnt think so either. |
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Yes, fraudulent is probably the wrong word, ignorant is better.
Id have bought ignorant initially. But AMT were corrected and it was explained to them, but AMT responded and maintained they "had their ways" and were in fact already shipping to customers from the EU to the EU while avoiding VAT. So scratch ignorant, we are left with either untruthful or unlawful. And before anyone brings it up; if you are small company thats not (yet) VAT registered, it doesnt mean you can avoid VAT for your customers. It means you cant get back the VAT you have to pay on your purchases, so VAT is paid either way. Its just paid on a little bit smaller amount if you are not adding a lot of value to the supply chain. |
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Thanks. I've had some SD card issues in the past with Pi. Although I'm sure it was (partially) user error.
IM sure its not. I have two pi's, my brother has a pi, my neighbor has a pi. All 4 have problems with corrupting SD cards, regardless of brand or type of SD card, and two of the PIs have loose contacts in the sd card connector (well maybe all 4, but only two you have to wiggle/twist/bend/use tape to make it work at all). I really wish the Pi could boot from USB. |
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IT will stop when mining is no longer marginally profitable (ie, it costs more in electricity than it generates in mining). With current technology, current BTC price (and block reward). This chart gives you an idea:  Those numbers are derived from Bitmine's power efficiency specs in "nominal mode", 0.6J/GH, which are basically the same as HF, CT and BFL. I doubt that will be the pinnacle of power efficiency though; more efficient chips and/or these chips running in lower power mode, the ceiling may be 2-3x higher. Then multiply or divide by whatever you think BTC will be worth in the future. |
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Well, on the 23rd, I got an email that they would try to ship my unit by the 24th and give me my tracking number.... It is the 28th now and I am still waiting for my tracking number so I don't think they even shipped my unit.
I guess you werent shilling hard enough, so you didnt qualify for their " 1 TO 2 WEEKS OFF THE EXPECTED SHIPPING TIME FRAME" shill bonus. |
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Regarding the price, we're selling the Model B Raspberry Pi which is $50 alone. Add the Case, power cable, sdhc card, shipping and installation time and you'll find that we're actually selling it for quite cheap.
You can buy the complete kit on amazon for $65 http://www.amazon.com/CanaKit-Raspberry-Complete-Original-Preloaded/dp/B008XVAVAWCharging $100 to image an SD card is not quite cheap IMO. THough the idea is cool. |
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Something to consider, if the total hash is 10 phs, and it doubles, effectively doubling difficulty, what % of the first 10 phs gets turned off?
Only that part which is no longer operationally profitable, ie costs more in electricity than it generates in mining. Very few, if any, asics would become operationally unprofitable in a 20PH network, unless your electricity costs are high, or BTC value tumbles. Maybe some obsolete first gen Asicminer/avalon gear, which by then would form an insignificant percentage of the network. En even then, rather than being shut down, I suspect most owners will either continue operating at a loss or sell their gear to someone with cheaper electricity (or poor math skills). |
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800TH, that was much much lower than I expected. Could it be a case of understating the numbers?
Its possible, though if I were to guess, Id say they are honest. BA is not a large company, they were the last vendor to announce their (28nm) product, and as result had a tough time, certainly initially, getting a meaningful amount of orders. I always suspected they were one of the few companies with a realistic delivery schedule, but most miners got fooled by BFL, HF & Co who promised them delivery so much sooner. ANyway, now that HF has fallen from grace, CT sold out for months, I do get the impression BA sales have picked up substantially recently, so maybe they will aim a bit higher for subsequent batches. Whether that will make them a player that needs to be counted with in the overall picture, I dunno. |
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would like to know for sure that the die is 81mm²... dies are rarely exactly 9x9 mm... so it'd be nice to know exactly how big it is to at least one decimal place rather than the very rough and unlikely sounding 9x9mm number. e.g.,if it was 9.5x9.5mm that'd be a 90mm² die.
I got that number by combining two different posts. The first one is a bit scary: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270384.msg2975145#msg2975145If you know anything about asics, that post may make your heart stop once you notice its written by Hashfast's VP of engineering. Estimating a competitors die size just by looking at the heatspreader...  that was my first major red flag. Anyway, the number Amy wrote there is 324mm^2 per "die". Later it was clarified that each chip consists of 4 smaller dies in a single package. Sorry, dont have the link at hand. I just divided 324 by 4. But again this makes you wonder if VP Amy had absolutely no clue what she was talking about, not knowing what a die is, or if they changed this since the above post and initially they were crazy enough to actually shoot for a 300+ mm³ mammoth die. Either should have made potential customers worry. |
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Thanks, now we know their yield per wafer is around 110Th/s I'm terribly sorry that i made you lose the time needed to write all of that, but that is Cointerra chip, not Hashfast's one. Doesnt make too much difference. Hashfast published their die size. Each chip has 4 dies of 81mm² IIRC. A 300mm wafer would hold ~800 die candidates for up to 200 chips x 500GH each = 100TH. |
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Um, because they are shipping an EU-product to EU, possibly from EU... dumbass. Thus, no VAT Sorry, couldnt read further than that. Please get a clue. |
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FFS try to read before posting. Did you read the link I posted where AMT claimed: Customers in the EU will not have to pay VAT or Import taxes As for your personal situation, you posted this hypothetical So if I'm buying Bitmine.ch stuff from the U.S.A, who do I expect to trust?! I assumed that meant you where ordering from the USA. Obviously if you are in the EU I see no reason to buy bitmine gear from AMT. |
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Bitmine.ch has already said in their web page that AMT is the exclusive U.S.A. distributor.
Exporting product does not require paying VAT in europe. Here is what he said: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=304605.msg3895213#msg3895213You can not legally sell stuff in the EU without charging VAT. Simple as that. Either they are breaking the law, or they are lying. Also, there is a price differential with the Bitmine.ch products, that could be difference in cost for the cases and power supply and the absence of taxes. Internet sales in US are tax free. I never mentioned prices. So if I'm buying Bitmine.ch stuff from the U.S.A., who do I expect to trust?!
Cant help you there. I guess no one. If it makes you feel any better, if you live in Russia its not like you have great choices. Bitmine's exclusive distributor there is 50BTC. And the one in China doesnt seem all that much better at first glance. Doesnt bitmine themselves sell to overseas customers? |
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Exactly. That is why their story is completely believable.
Its entirely believable they are cramming bitfury boards in lian li cases, and its just as believable they intend to put Bitmine boards in their newer miners. Whats not believable is that they will receive bitmine chips before bitmine themselves, nor that they will achieve vastly better performance per watt from bitmine chips than bitmine. Or for that matter, that they can legally avoid VAT in europe. If you cant believe their delivery date claims, nor their hardware specs, or almost anything else they say, good luck ordering with them. Perhaps at least the Lian Li case may prove to be genuine. |
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I don't think the end game calculation will be a good prediction for the next 6 months. But it is interesting.
I agree we wont reach the "end game" equilibrium in 6 months, it will take much longer to get close to it, but when you see how far we are from that equilibrium, then you must realize that only brake on network growth is manufacturing capability. And its hard to see just how limited production capacity will be 6 months from here, taking in to account fabs have virtually unlimited production capacity and there are plenty of high volume assembly houses that are starving for business with the decline in PC sales. Perhaps the most realistic limiting factor will be datacenter availability. But I guess you need to include the price end game for bitcoin also in that calculation. Yes, but no one knows what that will be. First time I ran the above numbers, I assumed a bitcoin price of $200. Its now almost 4x that, and as a result, you pretty much get 4x higher numbers. If you think bitcoin will go further up, just multiply (or divide) the numbers in the chart accordingly. I believe that in a 6 months timeframe estimation of production capacity and the current orderbooks will propably give the best estimate. I could be wrong of course.
Problem is that we have no solid data for that and no source that doesnt have an incentive to understate the numbers. But back to BFL is there any information, excluding from Josh who I think might over promise a bit, of how large their orderbook is and how large their production capacity will be when/if they start delivering. Is there any past estimation before the conversion to Monarchs?
My brother read an article in a semicon magazine about BFL. Unfortunately I cant find it. He said the article mentioned BFL had (pre)sold $180M worth of bitcoin asics. That was 2 months or so ago. BFL sold their 65nm gear for around $50 per GH. That would work out to 9PH. Thats roughly twice the hashrate I believe they could be responsible for today. Which leads me to conclude about half of that sales number is for yet to be delivered 28nm gear. So around $90M. At $7.8/GH thats 11 PH. Lots of assumptions, but its a ballpark number, at least for their order books 2 months ago, before the bitcoin boom. Id feel comfortable doubling that number today. |
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