I don't. In that case, I lose out on a good short. But it doesn't matter. You're discussing speculating on something that might happen and has a lot of risk. That's not the way I trade. I only trade when I have a good setup and I'm 80% sure that I'm going to win, and have a strategy to control risk. So I just ignore the trading opportunity and wait for another one. For example I'll at least wait for some kind of large spike (bulltrap) and then I'll short that. I'll then be prepared to cover this short very quickly if I feel that it is not a bulltrap but more of a longer-term recovery.

I guess you'e in a different situation though in which you're currently long. Maybe you're too heavily invested in btc now and you're forced to make a trade or else you feel like you are losing all of your capital.  It sucks to be in that situation. One should not have been long like that to begin with every single MACD on every scale on bitcoinwisdom was down.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

I am already sold from $630 still and never bought back. I thought about shorting, but didn't .  I'm still 20% BTC and 80% fiat, which up until now has been my the max bearish position I would allow.  Yesterday for the first time I considered actually going short so that I was -(20)% BTC but I pussied out and everything happened too fast with the news.

Wrong. Look at the volume. It has decreased significantly on this wave down from the last wave down. That is very bearish. It is no longer up to Huobi to find the bottom. It is up to Bitstamp. I predict that the final bottom will be on a day when Bitstamp has over 200,000BTC of volume.

GG risto

Justify yourselves. I'm tired of hearing this. What makes you keep saying that the China situation is FUD?

As far as I'm aware, it is a FACT that the PBOC issued statements in DECEMBER that third party payment processors and banks should not transact with bitcoin exchanges or in bitcoin. Since then, Chinese exchanges have ignored the guidance and continued to use bank accounts, and attempted other manipulations and tricks in defiance of their government. Bulls have been attempting to use sheer hope and willpower to turn this temporary situation into a permanent one and pretend that nothing ever happened in China and that everything is ok. They are deluded! To think that the Chinese government was not going to enforce PBOC rulings or for the bulls to think that they could go in and change the fabric of the universe to reverse things with their sheer bullishness, enthusiasm, and willpower. Moooooo! No! It was bound to fail eventually. Now the inevitable enforcement action rolls around. Even if the current news is fake (which I'm hearing it probably isn't), enforcement action could STILL be right around the corner, and I've been warning about this months, and how I never really liked this 'recovery' because it was always led by or supported by China which was doomed to fail eventually.

One more thing: Someone argued with me that cash vouchers were the reason everything was ok. You know well as I that it is not cash vouchers but bank transfers that have been moving the real money, cash vouchers are just another trick to defy the government which will probably also be banned, and that cash vouchers are not even on Huobi - the highest volume exchange, so they are practically irrelevant.

So anyway, anyone who still subscribes to the "China FUD" theory, explain yourselves?
1) Why do you think the rulings in December were fake, or did not really imply that bank accounts should not transact with Bitcoin exchanges? Provide proof. If there is a mistranslation, please provide the appropriate translation, and proof of how it is a valid translation.
2) Why do you think the current news is fake? Again, provide proof.

It looks like overlaying price action with previous years rallies is become a bad way to predict things now. In fact, every trading decision I made based on this was a mistake.

Below the cloud again.

Where did you enter it, on exchange or trading? Make sure you're looking in the right place for your order and for your position. An exchange wallet position will show actual bitcoins in your wallet balance, but a trading position will show as a position in a table only on the trading page.

Yes maybe it should have been priced in but I don't think it has been, because:
1. There were delusional people who thought China might survive.
2. There was still buying and trading going on in China.

It is hard to predict and price in the exact effect that this removal of a market segment would have, especially since we don't know how much of their volume is real and how much is 'fake'.

I thought the same thing about gox but was wrong for these same reasons.

Why do you guys call it "China FUD". It is a FACT that PBOC issued advisories in December saying that banks and third party payment processors should not deal with bitcoin exchanges. Chinese bitcoin exchanges have now been illegally and manipulately skirting by this for months. How long did you think it would go before some enforcement action was taken? Even if this particular news is fake, it is only a matter of time before it actually happens.

Here I was thinking that current prices were representative of a Bitcoin that had moved on from China and now we were pricing based on demand outside of China. But I guess I was wrong. We still have deluded people ACTUALLY thinking that China is still with us and that China is just going to last forever and bitcoin is perfectly ok in China, and that we should price Bitcoin based on these assumptions. "yay go china"   "omg ltc on china".  Ridiculous!

The big dumping started on the news. However, the de-trending from the rally started this morning before the news.

see poll

Another perspective:

We we're going down, hit the minor 540 support into a dead cat bounce, then some sheep started panic buying because of all the latest 'hot news'. Now that the hype is  over, we can resume the downtrend.

How is this my word? It is the word of the PBOC that they issued in December. Why did you ignore the PBOC? Did you think it was a joke? Did you think that the Chinese government (of all countries) does not enforce things and was going to let it go on forever?

The ban is old news from December, but people chose to ignore it. Now action is being taken to actually close the accounts, I guess. I warned of this over, and over, and over.

What does this have to do with the topic and the effect of a Chinese bank run?

I think it's the opposite. Ever since the banking problems in China started,  volumes in Huobi have declined, charts at Huobi have looked really ugly, and prices have declined. There was a turning point a few weeks ago around $630 where at that point the chart looked it was mirroring the breakout from July 2013 but then it went down instead and that was when we first started hearing about these Chinese banking problems.

I had decided not to buy until I saw a 1D cross and not to short until I saw a 4H cross. So far it has served me well as I just sat out all of these panic waves rather than buying high and selling low.