http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1258 is the bet. Apparently before the fork it was around 5 - 20 with 5 in agreement and 20 disagreeing but after the fork it raised to nearly 80 - 70 with 80 in agreement, but only thing is the price didn't close at $5 down at the end of the day since the drop happened around 2-3 AM on Mt. Gox. Seems to me whomever bet on disagreement (Red) is going to win big time... Hmm. Could be interesting way to hedge the risk of a crash. Me wonders if the owner will pay out though. Check the link, they cancelled the bet. I missed out on a nice payout. |
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Things like this will help silence the gold bugs and all the "no tangible value" critics. Well, maybe not completely.
Yes. Contrary to the recalcitrant ZH goldbug narrative, anyone who has ever visited Argentina knows that gold is rather illiquid there, definitely not money or even a useful medium of exchange, and silver is not even on the radar. At best it's a store of value used by a savy and tiny minority. Argentina went off the gold standard in the 19th century, there isn't even a vestigial memory of gold as money for most people under 50. There are no corner coin shops or big online dealers to provide liquidity. The favored alternative currency by far is USD, with EUR a distant second. Ease of use and network effects trump everything else. And that's why I expect that Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin, has a realistic chance of unseating USD for black market transactions in the 3rd world. Being tangible is not an advantage, it's a flaw except in extreme apocalyptic circumstances. That's why any non-idiot goldbug will inevitably grasp the necessity of saving in metals and BTC. Someone I know sends money to their family in Argentina all the time. Used to do it via the banks, losing about 25% in the process due to the difference between the "official" rate of exchange and the actual one. Switched to Bitcoins now for the last few months and singing its praises. That is bitcoin at its best ! |
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This thing won't stop itself, like a balloon that pops up form the depths of a bucket. And the bucket is rapidly turning into an ocean (of USD).
Hold on tight!
Sir, you are so verbal virtuoso that it is hard to know any more if that was a bullish or bearish statement! Hint: the moon  OMG, you think the price is going to crater ?   |
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Bought back my "panic" trade coins at a loss.
I honestly thought the incident would give quite some negativity which in combination with the already elevated bitcoins prices would knock off a serious bit of the price. Either it is taking quite some time to digest the incident, or it just shows how much power the bitcoin rocket has going on. I still think it can go either way, but getting more bullish by the hour.
I think your timing is going to prove to be excellent Looks that way  |
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Bought back my "panic" trade coins at a loss.
I honestly thought the incident would give quite some negativity which in combination with the already elevated bitcoins prices would knock off a serious bit of the price. Either it is taking quite some time to digest the incident, or it just shows how much power the bitcoin rocket has going on. I still think it can go either way, but getting more bullish by the hour.
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One thing about the whole tulip story that just doesn't make sense:
To create tulip bulbs you just plant bulbs in favourable soil and environment and 1 year later you dig it up to find many more new bulblets, replant in larger trays and so on. why the fuck would people enter a speculation frenzy on such an easily duplicated item?
BTC is completely different it has proof of work, getting increasingly harder. Ecenomically it is the same as gold. But unlike gold you dont have to stripmine the earth to get it.
BTC doubters can bite my shiny metal ASS!
+1 |
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This "Permanent Portfolio" thing seems like just another buzzword, waiting on copyright approval and the rights to it sold off to a gaggle of lawyers.
Look... people are different. Situations are different. Nothing works for everyone.
If you're a healthy twenty-something with a secure job, going all in and giving it a year or two makes perfect sense. Perfect.
Even at my age (50+), if you're healthy and calm and not particularly risk-averse, putting a majority of assets into it isn't an entirely stupid play. The upside is ferocious; and the truth of it will play out quickly. Odds...
But hey dude... you gotta try to sell your shit, right?
He is not selling anything except for an idea... |
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I'm going to need a new keyboard after all these bitcoin articles on ZH.
Oh well, time to get some dinner and maybe jump into the fray later.
You tend to do a fine job giving good information in a polite manner. Some of the other pro-bitcoiners on ZH tend to just sling faeces back and forth between Xenofrog and the likes... |
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Wallpic:  ...wat... Battle of the bots |
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I am not too worried about the recent events themselves, I don't think they display any major flaw in Bitcoin.
The events happened due to a bug in another library, these things will happen eventually. Since bitcoin is software, there WILL be unforseeable bugs, if you know that Bitcoin is a piece of machine code and are using it, you basically accept it already.
But the problem is getting warned about these things as fast as possible.
It seems that a lot of bugs can cause the chain split, as well other events, for example failure to update in time, or simply not hearing some important news.
That's why it is very important that people that are left behind will always get a warning.
It seems that a lot of these problems can be indicated if the software had a warning system for when it sees two different chains available (perhaps longer than X (6? 10? 20?) blocks).
According to some topics, for example LukeJr has a system like this already in place, however it involved external checks made possible by running multiple versions of the client.
What we need is for the standard client to constantly check for this situation and warning the user if it happens. It would be very good as a setting to also make it possible to shut down until manual inspection option, if the situation arises. Since the bitcoin client is integrated with a lot of other software, it would be good to have support for this check even in the jsonrpc-communication which the client supports.
Thoughts?
I agree that fast signalling in case of an error seems like a very good idea. That way merchants won't accept bad payments. The "shutdown until manual inspection" should definitely be optional, otherwise it might become another way to harass merchants and the network. A similar service outside of the client seems like a good idea too, sending out tweets, emails, text messages (paying service?), etc. when a problem arises. |
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Crashes coincide with increased volume, no?
If the lag does not exist on high volume moments when it is shooting going up, then maybe you have a point.
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This was not a 51% attack. Nobody intentionally gained 51% of hashing power for their own purpose. It was a bug in the 0.7 client that caused a blockchain fork, which left the network open to doublespending for a short while. And you dont see why this is a problem? Regardless of the cause? Previously people have been under the impression "double spends" only exist if >51% network - which is actaully not true anyway, it's a lot less. Did I say it was not a problem? He changed to quote to make it sound like it was a 51% attack, I was merely pointing out that a 51% is a different thing. |
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Trying to understand that stuff. Can you explain it to me like I am 5. What is BDB anyways.
I know BDB stands for Berkeley Database, but that's all I have got. I 'ld like a TL;DR version too  . |
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This was not a 51% attack. Nobody intentionally gained 51% of hashing power for their own purpose. It was a bug in the 0.7 client that caused a blockchain fork, which left the network open to doublespending for a short while. |
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Hi all,
The latest kerfuffle with the faulty code, means a lot of people have temporarily stopped mining no?
Did this / Doesn't this leave the network open to a 51% attack?
Seems the hashrate is plummeting.
No, that will only be a very temporary thing. Once all miners are mining the correct fork again, we are back at 100% hash speed. EDIT: probably everyone is mining the correct fork now, now that 0.7 fork is the longest. |
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This might be an equally effective but less centralized approach. What do you think?
How does one detect a fork? Some guy in his basement can create a fork with his own new code but be useless due to most transactions going with the main fork, but it would still be a fork. That is what waiting for x confirmations is for . |
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Hilarious how the we-don't-know-why-dip last week is significantly stronger than the O-M-G-Bitcoin-is-broken-dip today Only reason I can think of: we were short-term overbought then, while I believe we were just gathering energy to make a big jump upwards when the fork news hit. Thus there was a lot of fiat waiting for cheaper coins. |
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The total amount of BTC traded the 10 transactions after block 225446 adds up to about 145k BTC. That is over $6 million at a price of $45/BTC.
I wonder how much of that $6 million ended up being double spends too.
I would think only a very small minority. I transferred some coins too that were on the wrong chain, but didn't doublespend them. Also : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152300.0 |
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