On this forum, allegations of copy-paste (i.e. plagiarism) are very serious and are punishable by an immediate automatic ban. Can you back up your value judgment with evidence that my content isn't unique, or are you just slandering me?

Apparently you are in an information bubble, captivated by delusions and an abundance of fakes. Russian troops are acting primarily for reasons of expediency. Activity in the northern direction played a role in the initial phase of the operation. To storm a city of three million with a limited contingent of forces is madness. Plus, any agreement signed under pressure is legally null and void, so reducing the pressure on Kyiv is now quite reasonable. This will not help the regular army of Ukraine (or what is left of it) near the Donbass.

Ukraine's big mistake was to distribute weapons to criminals who torture prisoners. The main message of the Russian people to the Russian army now is "work, brothers".

The decrease in the intensity of the operation near Chernigov and Kiev began two days ago, today it was presented as a gesture of goodwill on the part of Russia. I think everything is more prosaic - the main goal now is to clean up Mariupol and defeat the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass. After the defeat of the Ukrainian regular army in the east, Russia will probably take a short pause to force peace negotiations, simultaneously moving to Nikolaevsk and Odessa and threatening to completely deprive Ukraine of access to the sea (even the loss of Mariupol in this regard is very painful for Ukraine). If it is possible to conclude a peace treaty, all nationalist detachments in the West of Ukraine will turn into ordinary terrorist gangs, which in fact they are. If a peace treaty is not signed on terms acceptable to Russia, the operation will continue, but in the West there will be much less loyalty and desire of Russian soldiers to save the lives of civilians. There, the main task will be to save the lives of Russian soldiers to the maximum, so artillery and aviation will work more. This is my vision of the development of the situation as the most likely scenario.

The current proposals of the Ukrainian side in the negotiations are unrealistic and even close to unacceptable for Russia. There will be no second Khasavyurt or new Minsk agreements.

I think Europe will buy gas from Russia in a similar way with the help of a virtual reverse through Bulgaria or Turkey, additionally paying for their intermediary services, but doing it without pleasure. However, we will soon see everything for ourselves. It is not clear how Europe will get out of this delicate situation while trying to save face, but Russia's message to Europe does not allow for ambiguity and room for double interpretation: "No money - no honey".

If we look at the absolute figures of Russian gas consumption by European countries, the picture will change. Germany consumes a lot of Russian gas because it has a developed industry and because Germany, under pressure from environmentalists, curtailed its nuclear energy, unlike, say, France - which also consumes a lot of Russian gas, but is much more protected from the problem of energy hunger.

ps According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia.

---

a) This commission will buy all gas for the whole of Europe, so in all existing contracts for the supply of gas, at least the host will change. I think the contract currency will also change from dollar or euro to ruble.
b) Gas is not only heating houses in winter, but also a raw material for electricity generation and chemical industries (such as the production of fertilizers for agriculture). Gas stocks in Europe's storage facilities are at historically low levels after this winter and need to be replenished quickly to reach acceptable levels by next winter. This is a serious problem for Germany and all of Europe. Farmers in Italy and Spain are already rallying against the increase in the price of fertilizers, they are rallying instead of carrying out sowing work. By paralyzing its industry with the immediate rejection of Russian gas, Europe is turning itself into a concentration of acute political, economic and social problems.
с) Good luck.
d) The union of Russia with India and China is a terrible dream of the West. India and China have colossal human resources, and Russia has colossal natural resources. India and China have disagreements and mutual claims, but if Russia manages to balance them and settle them as an arbitrator, then this is a serious bid for dominance in the world.
e) Yes, Putin prepared this, a very well-planned special operation. Excellent strategy and decent implementation. The story is in full swing - you will see everything for yourself.
I have not read Gazprom's gas supply contracts. I know that all contracts concluded after 2014 provide for the possibility of payment in rubles. For example, Bulgaria has such a contract and sees no problem in paying for gas in rubles. In my opinion, the impossibility for Gazprom, due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, to freely dispose of its proceeds from the sale of gas in euros and dollars is a force majeure circumstance for Gazprom and a good reason for the immediate termination of contracts without any penalties. Europe seriously thinks that Russia should continue to supply gas for free and at the same time apologize for invading Ukraine? It doesn't work that way.

---

So far, it seems that it is the EU politicians who are in the clouds and make a lot of populist statements. On April 1, gas supplies to Europe are possible only for rubles, and this is not a joke on a fool's day. 

Moral aside, Putin's regime is very efficient. No one before Putin so consistently imposed such a high efficiency of the management system on the colossal excess of natural resources of such a geographically huge country. Europe listened poorly to Putin at the Munich security conference in 2007 and is reaping the rewards of its strategic myopia.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Russia, under the pressure of sanctions, reduced imports to almost zero, but the Russian economy did not collapse. Russia has been well prepared for sanctions since 2014 and is protected from food shortages amid an energy glut. The import is important, but no instant catastrophic drama came from its overlap.
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most. Gazprom, even a month after the start of the special operation, pumps the maximum volume through the gas pipeline in Ukraine, showing itself to be a reliable supplier. The imposed sanctions do not allow Gazprom to receive and manage the money received as payment for the supplied gas, and Putin said to sell gas for rubles. For Gazprom, these are force majeure circumstances, quite a good reason to revise all contracts. Moreover, the European Union has created a special European Commission for the purchase of gas from Russia, so as not to create internal competition between different European countries in the price struggle for the same volumes.

Germany needs Russian gas here and now, and the most optimistic strategy for phasing out Russian energy sources is designed for two years. The energy system is designed for a gas pipeline, to switch to liquefied gas it is necessary to build many tankers and terminals - and this is difficult, long and expensive. Most likely, new contracts between Russia and the European Union with the calculation in rubles will be signed directly or through a democratic lining.

The United States is acting according to the old manual, trying to embroil Russia and Germany. However, Russia's turn to the east could create an alliance of Russia, India and China, the likes of which the world has not yet seen in strength.
After the sanctions have blocked the funds of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros, with a ban on operations with gold, it is ridiculous to talk about Russia's default, rather it is a default of the West. Russia lives with a budget surplus and does not have a large external debt.

The Yunarmiya exists in Russia, has a patriotic ideology and a power orientation. But this is not Nazism - simply because Russia is a very multinational country, different religions, different language groups, Russia's ideology is supranational and its political ambitions are more of an imperial nature.

Ukraine has a birth trauma from the break with Russia after the collapse of the USSR, and it elevated its nationalism to the absolute, making it radical. Ukraine had a chance to build its own future - original and free, if it overcame its inferiority complex and did not rely on anti-Russian rhetoric. You yourself became dependent on the United States and chose the path of a puppet.

It looks like you are a Nazi vulgaris, which in principle is not surprising. I respect the Ukrainian people, their rich history of music, art and literature, but the ultra-right nationalist propaganda that has been implanted as the dominant ideology in the western regions of Ukraine since childhood is turning your people into a herd of mindless jumping baboons, openly chanting anti-Russian chants. I don’t understand what’s the point of setting up this zoo in the center of Europe and instilling in fragile minds the idea of ​​the superiority of the Ukrainian race and that everyone owes you something. Bullying prisoners is the current level of your civilization, and this is very sad.

As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles, the ruble became the currency backed by Russian gas, which Europe needs right now just to survive and prevent the collapse of industrial production. What you call "money" is no longer money for Putin, the US dollar and the euro are completely discredited in the eyes of Russia by the freezing of foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The ruble is money, the yuan is money, gold also has value, and the US dollar and euro are empty shells, backed by a trust in the US and the EU that no longer exists. And given Russia's large trade surplus, this is more of a problem for the US and the EU than a problem for Russia.

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler. In essence, this means that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has ceased to be subordinate to the Bank for International Settlements and is pursuing an independent monetary policy with priority on the interests of Russia. If the EU buys gas for rubles, the ruble will begin to strengthen to any price levels that suit the Central Bank of Russia. And all the risks and overheads from circumventing its own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the European Union.

This is a stereotype from the times of the Caribbean crisis, at the present time I think it can already be questioned, given the progress in numerical modeling and a deeper understanding of the nature of a nuclear reaction and the ability to control it. The demonstration of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile was very impressive, Russia did what the US thought was impossible, and this overwhelming advantage in delivery speed violates the status quo and the equilibrium parity of forces in the world. A technically difficult task, in principle, does not seem too impossible when it comes to delivering a coordinated nuclear strike on all unfriendly countries at the same time, so calibrated in terms of power that the climatic consequences for the planet are not too dramatic and one can completely continue to live on it without envying the dead. There is also the problem of intercepting reciprocal warheads, I think it is also quite solvable with the help of the S-400 and S-500 anti-missile systems that Putin has. The United States now has nothing to oppose to Russia in terms of force.

I would not completely exclude other possible scenarios for the development of events with the use of nuclear weapons. For example, Russia has been formally at war with Japan since 1945 and a peace treaty has not been signed with it. Japan is on the list of unfriendly countries with an open state of war - this is a serious security threat to Russia. This actually opens the green light for Putin to destroy Japan with a massive nuclear strike on all major cities and important infrastructure. What will NATO do in such a situation, gather for an extraordinary summit? And if, simultaneously with Japan, a massive nuclear strike is inflicted on the UK? I think the Kremlin is working on different scenarios, including the unlikely ones. The question is whether NATO is working on such options, or do they still firmly believe in stereotypes from the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis?

It's like settling on the side of an active volcano and telling everyone that the place is very safe - except for the only risk that one day an eruption is possible and red-hot lava will make its way through your backyard. Threats of this magnitude should not be underestimated or completely discounted if you want a truly safe place.

I think soon Russian troops will take the regular army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the boiler in the Donbass, uniting from the north and south. After the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the nationalists in the west of Ukraine will become ordinary terrorists if they get involved in a guerrilla war. Russia has extensive experience in conducting counter-terrorist operations.

Схема газ в обмен на продовольствие тоже такое себе - у России и газ, и продовольствие. Если ты когда-либо почувствуешь себя очень глупо - всё не так плохо по сравнению с тем, насколько глупым себя чувствует сейчас человек, решивший что можно просто спиздить у России 300 миллиардов долларов и никаких последствий ему за это не будет.  

Достаточно нанести все объекты имени Бандеры (улицы, проспекты, бульвары, музеи и скверы) на карту Украины и станет понятен масштаб явления. Всё левобережье Днепра поражено нацизмом как раковая опухоль на теле Европы и центр её во Львовской области - там почти все поголовно упоротые нацисты, открыто зигующие на камеру и скандирующие "москалей на ножи" на факельных шествиях по центральным улицам городов. Вот пример марша в Киеве в 2017, чтобы оценить массовость и размах мероприятий. Тынц Тынц

Сейчас все оплаты иностранного долга идут через правительственную комиссию, которая рассматривает каждую ситуацию и в случае если платёж идёт в пользу инвестора из списка недружественных стран, то ему вместо денег выдаётся вексель на предъявителя, дескать подателю сего выдать из заблокированных санкциями средств Центробанка РФ столько то миллионов евро или долларов США. 

I think Russia is now in no hurry to invade Western Ukraine, because the ideas of radical nationalism have penetrated very deeply into the mentality and they are almost all Nazis there, demilitarization can transform into mass genocide. It is necessary at least first to completely defeat the regular army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass in order to demoralize the militants in the Lviv region and try to push them to Poland to the maximum so that this becomes Europe's problem with refugees on its territory.

Просто теперь все риски и накладные расходы по обходу собственных санкций лягут на плечи ЕС и перестанут быть головной болью России. 

Biden is an old senile with obvious signs of dementia, he is no longer always able to read his speech even from a piece of paper. But the problem of the United States is much deeper, at times it seems that only idiots write speeches for a senile.

You say that like it's a bad thing.
But this is your wet fantasy. I do not see the prerequisites for mass mobilization in Russia; professional military personnel are doing their job quite well. Yesterday there was a report of the Russian Ministry of Defense for the month of the operation, and the whole world was surprised to note the accuracy and transparency of official data. And here is the opinion of a member of the right-wing radical organization "Fundamentals of the Future" about the fighters of the defense, actively practicing "friendly fire". With such friends, Ukraine does not need enemies, you yourself will shoot each other there.
Do not shift from a sick head to a healthy one. Russians for the most part live ordinary lives every day, children go to school and adults go to work or go about their own business. Drivers are happy that gasoline and gas prices have fallen, stores are full of shelves with food, although food prices have risen slightly. There are no mass demonstrations and torchlight processions on the streets, as happened at times, for example, in Kyiv. The Russian people approve of the operation because they do not like Nazism and do not intend to endure threats against them from anyone. There is no corpus delicti on the Russian side.

I would not call any island or place on the mainland near the ocean a safe place due to the tsunami.

I think the safest place in the world right now is Mongolia, inland between Russia and China.

I do not agree. Popular support for Putin has grown significantly since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and now he is supported by 70-80% of Russians. It would be much more difficult for Putin to achieve his goals without the support of the population. Support for Biden in the US is now at an all-time low and does not exceed 40% of the population. European politicians feel even less confident - Europeans are already being offered not just to start saving, but they really face the prospect of freezing next winter.