Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[tvbcof]

I think Russia is now in no hurry to invade Western Ukraine, because the ideas of radical nationalism have penetrated very deeply into the mentality and they are almost all Nazis there, demilitarization can transform into mass genocide. It is necessary at least first to completely defeat the regular army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass in order to demoralize the militants in the Lviv region and try to push them to Poland to the maximum so that this becomes Europe's problem with refugees on its territory.

I've always somehow just 'sensed' that Russia will arrange for Kiev and Odessa to be easily under their grasp then use them as bargaining chips for a settlement which makes Eastern Ukraine an autonomous or maybe full state (and obviously a client state or protectorate).

My 'instinct' about this might be mostly because it would be about what I'd do to the degree that I understand what Russia probably wants and needs, and what they probably have no interest in.  e.g., trying to deal with a bunch of Ukrainian ultra-nationalist miscreants who are strategically more desirable to have as the West's problem.

It would not surprise me at all of the wrath of the ultra-nationalists would be much more raw toward the West who totally fucked them up the ass.  It's pretty understandable even to them that the Eastern people (even if their grandparents were Soviet era stay-behind settlers) did what they had to do to avoid the attempted genocide that the nationalists were implementing in Donbass.  OTOH, the West promising them the moon and then leaving them high and dry to be decimated when the going got rough has got to sting.  They are already pre-disposed to blame 'the Jews', and it isn't hard to make that case.  I'm not expecting these people to be easy-going and friendly toward anybody for quite some time.  That's not to say that they won't be 'useful' for a variety of operations though.

[1715183040]

1715183040

[1715183040]

1715183040

[1715183040]

1715183040

[1715183040]

1715183040

[Tash]

Din't take long for the vultures to turn up and grab a slice of the Ukraine carcass.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/03/27/poland-will-quietly-take-lviv-ivano-frankivsk-volyn-rovno-if-the-russians-do-not-stop/

Woulda been smarter to let   Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic break away, and thats it.
Heart and soul Dnepropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts.

[paxmao]

...

I see people using the terms carpet shelling/bombing, and encouraging escalations in Ukraine, but i'm pretty sure they don't know what those terms really mean. Just find it ironic how everyone wants to see Ukraine take on Russia, and they're even willing to sacrifice their...weapons for it. This is what US did in just 11 days (18–29 December 1972). Those that call for escalations are they really expecting Putin just to fold and not do the same thing US did? Or did Geneva convention change since 1972? Does Russia have much else to loose? What are the odds people put on Putin just folding? Sure double daring Putin with Ukraine seems like a great idea, i'm sure Ukraine will turn out just fine.
...

How does a reasonable, unbiased and feasible solution looks like for you on this war of agression:

NATO intervenes, Putin feels free to use non-conventional arsenal and attack NATO bases. Possible results:
a - Putin gets very scared, he sees that he may loose power and withdraws the army.
b - Putin goes harder, he cannot afford to loose face. Nato and Russian troops engage and by some miracle, Putin does not use any WMD. Relations are broken for decades, NATO and EU weaponize, Russia limps on a sanctioned economy.
c - Limited nuclear response (tactical or limited strategic) Ukraine radioactive for the next few decades as other bits of Europe and cities in Russia. Massive re-arming across the world, massive health and hunger across the world...
d - It escalates, first nuke fire, then second, then.... well...end of story and history.

NATO supports Ukraine with as much conventional means as to stop the ability of Putin to continue the war effectively.
a - Putin decides to keep the conquered land. He will be facing stiff opposition even funded by the West, the region may be on an undeclared war for decades.
b - Putin decides to reach a peace agreement that includes returning part of the conquered land. This looks like something that could be sustainable for both parties.
c - Putin completely withdraws in exchange for removing sanctions.
d - Putin puts all he is got and war escalates, we found ourselves on the first scenario.
e - Ukraine is not able to hold. A peace is achieve at the cost of massive loss of territory and a puppet government without military power.

On the second scenario, the chances of a massive catastrophe are much lower. And that is the better option, even for Ukraine that stands a chance of keeping large parts of the territory and have a very weakened neighbour that may not have the economics to wage further wars.

Now, consider that on the first scenario there is a chance of global or regional full nuclear destruction. Is that how a solution looks to anyone? Even if there is a 10% of that happening. It does not work for Ukraine either as they would likely be the first ones being nuked in all likelihood.

And this is where hypocrisy lies, people complain how the other side calls it "special operation" yet are so eager to say NATO "intervenes" or sets up no-fly zone. You can't complain about BS from one side only to spit out your own BS. Both of these mean the same thing

[...]

I do not think I can make it more clear. Nato intervenes means clearly acts of war against Russia yes - what is the hypocrisy here? The wording?. I could not care less about how each would decide to call it, the scenario is the same. BTW, I do not complain about propaganda, I just tend to say it is propaganda.

As for the rest of your message, I am not sure I get your point - what is you realistic and feasible best case solution?

On the lateral topics you are talking, like Cuba, ... I do not think the embargo to Cuba has ever brought anyone any closer to a peaceful solution of any kind, if that is the question, nor I consider it particularly ethical.

We all agree that Albania, Hungary, Iceland etc... don't really have any say in NATO right?

They have a limited say, but an attack on any member is an attack on all. If that is not honoured, NATO would cease to exist. US and other members would take a"proportional response" as it is the standard in diplomacy and war. The choice of means and targets could vary - but certainly the nuclear response is not the first choice to respond to a non-nuclear aggression.

...

Realistic case: US sells out Ukraine with some backhanded deal with Russia. Covered in such a way so everyone saves face

Biden has already enough trouble with his popularity and chances of re-election to do that. He needs something he can sell as a successful peace and there is no way he can do so giving away Ukraine. Also, that would be a huge strategic error for the future and US analysts know that it would leave a less safe - thus more expensive - world behind.

...
Best case, well that depends for who? There are always competing interests but some ideas from top of my head:
-Russia: Ukraine surrendering (4 weeks ago or second best now), and Russia getting it back under it's sphere of influence
-US: Maximize chance of collapsing Russia by maximizing its pain via a proxy up to the last Ukrainian standing
-EU: This thing just going away ASAP, receiving natural resources to keep its heavy industries from collapsing and its population fed and warm during next winter
-Ukraine: Majority of populations just want to live "better" and don't really care about politics. Ukraine was the poorest country in EU and its GDP per capita was almost 4x lower than Russia. So financially, average Ukrainian would most likely be better off, under Russia. Freedom loving part of population are better off not coming back and staying in EU countries. Pretty much just like Cuba.
-China: Costly, long, drawn out conflict requiring huge investments from US with another Marshall Plan for Europe.
...

I think that it is very clear which side I am on: best case for Europe and Ukraine. US & China are only getting stronger with this and Putin's Tzardom, insofar as most of their population seem to be quite apathic about how they are governed, is not of my concern other than their ability to cause problems to others.

Certainly, not a war with WMD would fit a desirable solution to any party, which is the point of my post.

Again, I think that my position on this is very clear, but if I have to make it even more clear: a solution that causes a low number of civilian casualties, something the parties can live with given the damage inflicted to both sides, something that can be politically accepted for the relevant stakeholders, and, above all, a solution that does not encourage or that makes economically unfeasible any further conflict in the future.

On regards to your comments on EU, of course, ideally Europe wants this gone ASAP. While short term Germany chose to interlink with Russia, I think their leaders have gotten the message quite clear and the strategic exposure to Russia, while unchangeable short term, can and will be changed during the next five years. You cannot feed the bear no mater how nice he looks when asleep.

On your comment on Ukraine, people all over the world want to progress and "live better" in the ample sense. They know that this is not happening if they are part of the Tzardom. Also, people tend to like feeling free, even if freedom is never perfect something that, again, does not happen under a despotic foreign power's direct control.

..

As said many times, if you go back in time enough you would have to give it all to the Mongols. Whatever historically happened to a territory is not the base of who and how should hold the legitimate right to govern - that is simply medieval philosophy and justifying ruling and submission "by the grace of God" or on "historical rights of conquest".

In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

I understand that you being a Kremlin Troll cannot grasp the concept of people choosing their own leaders and governments.

[Tash]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

[af_newbie]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

Putin fabricated the referendum. What are you talking about?

What referendum? Who supervised it?

Maybe we should do referendums in all oblasts in Russia? How many of the 200 ethnic groups in Russia would want to stay in 'Russia'?

Fucking animals, that is what Moscovites are. They should to be kept in zoos. No civilized humans should interact with Russians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhBfNDVs-PY

After this nightmare is over, the 'Russian Empire' will finally fall.

[be.open]

Fucking animals, that is what Moscovites are. They should to be kept in zoos. No civilized humans should interact with Russians.

It looks like you are a Nazi vulgaris, which in principle is not surprising. I respect the Ukrainian people, their rich history of music, art and literature, but the ultra-right nationalist propaganda that has been implanted as the dominant ideology in the western regions of Ukraine since childhood is turning your people into a herd of mindless jumping baboons, openly chanting anti-Russian chants. I don’t understand what’s the point of setting up this zoo in the center of Europe and instilling in fragile minds the idea of ​​the superiority of the Ukrainian race and that everyone owes you something. Bullying prisoners is the current level of your civilization, and this is very sad.

[af_newbie]

Fucking animals, that is what Moscovites are. They should to be kept in zoos. No civilized humans should interact with Russians.

It looks like you are a Nazi vulgaris, which in principle is not surprising. I respect the Ukrainian people, but the ultra-right nationalist propaganda that has been implanted as the dominant ideology in the western regions of Ukraine since childhood is turning your people into a herd of mindless jumping baboons, openly chanting anti-Russian chants. I don’t understand what’s the point of setting up this zoo in the center of Europe and instilling in fragile minds the idea of ​​the superiority of the Ukrainian race and that everyone owes you something. Bullying prisoners is the current level of your civilization, and this is very sad.

and what exactly is Юнapмия doing to young Russians?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiBOpkiDha0

Ultra-nationalist much?

All Ukrainians love THEIR country. That is about it.

The tragedy of this military adventure is that a lot of Ukrainians and Kacaps will die.

Putin will achieve nothing. Ukraine will stay where it is, where it always was.

All he did, was he united Ukraine. He united the world/NATO against Russia.

The longer he continues his atrocities the less sympathy the ordinary Russians will get anywhere in the world.

He is fucking up pretty much anything he touches.

[be.open]

Fucking animals, that is what Moscovites are. They should to be kept in zoos. No civilized humans should interact with Russians.

It looks like you are a Nazi vulgaris, which in principle is not surprising. I respect the Ukrainian people, but the ultra-right nationalist propaganda that has been implanted as the dominant ideology in the western regions of Ukraine since childhood is turning your people into a herd of mindless jumping baboons, openly chanting anti-Russian chants. I don’t understand what’s the point of setting up this zoo in the center of Europe and instilling in fragile minds the idea of ​​the superiority of the Ukrainian race and that everyone owes you something. Bullying prisoners is the current level of your civilization, and this is very sad.

and what exactly is Юнapмия doing to young Russians?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiBOpkiDha0

The Yunarmiya exists in Russia, has a patriotic ideology and a power orientation. But this is not Nazism - simply because Russia is a very multinational country, different religions, different language groups, Russia's ideology is supranational and its political ambitions are more of an imperial nature.

Ultra-nationalist much?

All Ukrainians love THEIR country. That is about it.

Ukraine has a birth trauma from the break with Russia after the collapse of the USSR, and it elevated its nationalism to the absolute, making it radical. Ukraine had a chance to build its own future - original and free, if it overcame its inferiority complex and did not rely on anti-Russian rhetoric. You yourself became dependent on the United States and chose the path of a puppet.

[Tash]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

Putin fabricated the referendum. What are you talking about?

..................

And the over 16000 deaths in the last 8 years?

How the Nazis defend

[paxmao]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

Putin fabricated the referendum. What are you talking about?

..................

And the over 16000 deaths in the last 8 years?
...

Answered over and over, Putin has been supporting the paramilitary pro-annexation. Putin has tried to make the case for a genocide in international institutions and failed to provide any evidence. Putin would not go to war on the ground of anyone being killed except himself, he is one of the major murderers of the XXI centuries and cares only about himself and his business.

Launching over and over links with propaganda and inundating a thread with images will not prevent a more productive discussion for those who wish to have one. It may work in Putin's Tzardom where people cannot have access to different views, but it does not work here. Whoever is paying you is wasting the money they need to dig graves for the soldiers.



Seriously? Do you think this is a Indiana Jones movie??

[TwitchySeal]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

Putin fabricated the referendum. What are you talking about?

..................

And the over 16000 deaths in the last 8 years?

How the Nazis defend

Tash,

We've been over this.  

If you're so concerned about Nazis, then it should be the ones running the Donetsk People's Republic, not the ones in Ukraine that have no political power.  

From your own link:

Russian ethnic and imperialist nationalism has shaped the official ideology of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.[172] Far-right nationalist groups have played a greater role on the pro-Russian side of the conflict than on the Ukrainian side, especially at the beginning. Leaders of the Donetsk People's Militia are closely linked to the neo-Nazi party Russian National Unity (RNU) led by Alexander Barkashov, which has recruited many fighters.[172][173][174] A former member of RNU, Pavel Gubarev, was founder of the Donbas People's Militia and first "governor" of the Donetsk People's Republic.[172][175] RNU is particularly linked to the Russian Orthodox Army, a religious ultranationalist unit which is part of the Donetsk People's Militia.[174][176] Other neo-Nazi units include the 'Rusich', 'Svarozhich' and 'Ratibor' battalions, which have Slavic swastikas on their badges.

[Tash]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

Putin fabricated the referendum. What are you talking about?

..................

And the over 16000 deaths in the last 8 years?

How the Nazis defend

Tash,

We've been over this.  

If you're so concerned about Nazis, then it should be the ones running the Donetsk People's Republic, not the ones in Ukraine that have no political power.  

From your own link:

Russian ethnic and imperialist nationalism has shaped the official ideology of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.[172] Far-right nationalist groups have played a greater role on the pro-Russian side of the conflict than on the Ukrainian side, especially at the beginning. Leaders of the Donetsk People's Militia are closely linked to the neo-Nazi party Russian National Unity (RNU) led by Alexander Barkashov, which has recruited many fighters.[172][173][174] A former member of RNU, Pavel Gubarev, was founder of the Donbas People's Militia and first "governor" of the Donetsk People's Republic.[172][175] RNU is particularly linked to the Russian Orthodox Army, a religious ultranationalist unit which is part of the Donetsk People's Militia.[174][176] Other neo-Nazi units include the 'Rusich', 'Svarozhich' and 'Ratibor' battalions, which have Slavic swastikas on their badges.

Sooner or later someone had to replace North Korea is the official shi|t hole of the world
Roses Have Thorns (Part 6) The Odessa Massacre
https://youtu.be/QxcB0PI4ZLg

[paxmao]

.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

False. A referendum requires effective peace, international observers, and agreed right to participation, and public discussion. There has not been any vote or referendum with the minimum guarantees of democracy and fairness, just a faked putsch that not even the most ignorant would accept. From your own reference article:

The results of the referendums were not officially recognised by any government.

I know you cannot understand any of this because you are drunk of Putin's propaganda but a referendum of independence cannot be held while there is state (Putin) sponsored militias using violence, the area is taken by tanks and there is no chance of the people giving their views with free press and freedom of speech.

If the people in the Donbas wish to be "ruled" by Putin after a honest and clear process, or, most likely would like to be independent, it would be perfectly fair. My take is that under such a circumstances, they would understand that Putin would immediately violate that independence and take them as yet another vassal to be scalped for profit.

...
Sooner or later someone had to replace North Korea is the official shi|t hole of the world
..

I hope that whoever the new "s..hole" results is better at filmaking.

[af_newbie]

Fucking animals, that is what Moscovites are. They should to be kept in zoos. No civilized humans should interact with Russians.

It looks like you are a Nazi vulgaris, which in principle is not surprising. I respect the Ukrainian people, but the ultra-right nationalist propaganda that has been implanted as the dominant ideology in the western regions of Ukraine since childhood is turning your people into a herd of mindless jumping baboons, openly chanting anti-Russian chants. I don’t understand what’s the point of setting up this zoo in the center of Europe and instilling in fragile minds the idea of ​​the superiority of the Ukrainian race and that everyone owes you something. Bullying prisoners is the current level of your civilization, and this is very sad.

and what exactly is Юнapмия doing to young Russians?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiBOpkiDha0

The Yunarmiya exists in Russia, has a patriotic ideology and a power orientation. But this is not Nazism - simply because Russia is a very multinational country, different religions, different language groups, Russia's ideology is supranational and its political ambitions are more of an imperial nature.

Ultra-nationalist much?

All Ukrainians love THEIR country. That is about it.

Ukraine has a birth trauma from the break with Russia after the collapse of the USSR, and it elevated its nationalism to the absolute, making it radical. Ukraine had a chance to build its own future - original and free, if it overcame its inferiority complex and did not rely on anti-Russian rhetoric. You yourself became dependent on the United States and chose the path of a puppet.

Ukraine is a multi-ethnic country. They just don't want to be ruled by Russia.
Ukrainians don't want the autocratic Soviet-style system that currently governs Russia.

So, if Ukrainians are patriotic, they are ultra-nationalist Nazis, but Russian ultra-nationalists are just patriotic?

Are Polish and Romanian patriots also ultra-nationalist Nazis?

How about the Komi peoples? Or any other 200 ethnic peoples conquered by Russians.

BTW, less than 50% of the population of 'Russia' is ethnically Russian.

[suchmoon]

FT reports that Putin may no longer demand "denazification":

https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626 (paywall)

Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

This might be a tough time for Kremlin-paid bitcointalkers so please be kind to them while they are waiting for new talking points and are trying to forget everything they said about nazis in Ukraine.

In reality of course it's all bullshit because nothing Putin says or does can be trusted.

[OgNasty]

I still can’t believe how long this has been going on. Absolutely terrible that civilians are dying as a result of Russia’s actions. I’m reading reports that there are cities where the dead aren’t even being cleaned up. They’re just littering the streets. Now you’re hearing about Ukrainian soldiers shooting captive Russian soldiers in the kneecaps. It’s just a lose-lose situation for everyone involved. It’s dumbfounding how this type of conflict can exist today. Russia’s claims appear a bit paranoid and they’re coming off a bit like the United States as we invaded Iraq for imaginary weapons.

[paxmao]

I still can’t believe how long this has been going on. Absolutely terrible that civilians are dying as a result of Russia’s actions. I’m reading reports that there are cities where the dead aren’t even being cleaned up. They’re just littering the streets. Now you’re hearing about Ukrainian soldiers shooting captive Russian soldiers in the kneecaps. It’s just a lose-lose situation for everyone involved. It’s dumbfounding how this type of conflict can exist today. Russia’s claims appear a bit paranoid and they’re coming off a bit like the United States as we invaded Iraq for imaginary weapons.

Putin, not Russia IMHO.

[LTU_btc]

FT reports that Putin may no longer demand "denazification":

https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626 (paywall)

Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

This might be a tough time for Kremlin-paid bitcointalkers so please be kind to them while they are waiting for new talking points and are trying to forget everything they said about nazis in Ukraine.

In reality of course it's all bullshit because nothing Putin says or does can be trusted.

I don't have FT subscription, but found some more details on Russian BBC website:
https://cutt.ly/eDvJcH4
From this article it seems that Russia only don't agree about Ukraine joining NATO. They don't want to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine. They are even OK with Ukraine joining EU. In whole context for me it doesn't sounds realistic, despite that FT is not some yellow press. But if it's true, it's interesting how Bitcointalk trolls will react to it.

I still can’t believe how long this has been going on. Absolutely terrible that civilians are dying as a result of Russia’s actions. I’m reading reports that there are cities where the dead aren’t even being cleaned up. They’re just littering the streets.

It's Mariupol. People can't be even buried properly because of never ending shooting. Streets is full of dead people. They have no other choice than bury them in the yards and gardens:
https://www.rferl.org/a/mariupol--escape-russian-siege-ukraine/31771645.html
It's something terrible what's happening in this city and it's hard to find words to describe what's going on there.

[af_newbie]

FT reports that Putin may no longer demand "denazification":

https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626 (paywall)

Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

This might be a tough time for Kremlin-paid bitcointalkers so please be kind to them while they are waiting for new talking points and are trying to forget everything they said about nazis in Ukraine.

In reality of course it's all bullshit because nothing Putin says or does can be trusted.

Putin is like an abusive ex-husband who comes to talk to you and beats you up, then tells you he loves you.

Anyway, the main objective was to reunite Ukraine with the rest of the Russian empire. He simply does not see any path forward unless
Ukraine is part of Russia. Without Ukraine, the rest of his plan, the annexation of Baltic countries, Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria will not work.

Putin will not give up. This is his goal and he is very determined.
Even if he signs an' agreement' today, in a few years he will be back knocking on Ukraine's door for the rest of the territory.

So unless Ukrainians physically stop him, the grind will continue.

The talk about only eastern parts is just a distraction. He is regrouping and will attack Kyiv in a couple of weeks. And I suspect he will start with carpet bombing, then he will send land forces. Maybe he will convince Lukashenko to send his troops.

The objective of the operation has not changed.

Ukraine needs to continue destroying tanks and artillery. Without those, his forces will not be able to make progress on land.

So unless the West steps up and sends planes, tanks, anti-tank weaponry, Ukraine is for a long grinding, genocidal war, and a 90%
destruction of cities and infrastructure.

I still can’t believe how long this has been going on. Absolutely terrible that civilians are dying as a result of Russia’s actions. I’m reading reports that there are cities where the dead aren’t even being cleaned up. They’re just littering the streets. Now you’re hearing about Ukrainian soldiers shooting captive Russian soldiers in the kneecaps. It’s just a lose-lose situation for everyone involved. It’s dumbfounding how this type of conflict can exist today. Russia’s claims appear a bit paranoid and they’re coming off a bit like the United States as we invaded Iraq for imaginary weapons.

Putin, not Russia IMHO.

Putin is not fighting in Ukraine, Russians are.

80% of Russians support this war.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[DaRude]

...

We all agree that Albania, Hungary, Iceland etc... don't really have any say in NATO right?

They have a limited say, but an attack on any member is an attack on all. If that is not honoured, NATO would cease to exist. US and other members would take a"proportional response" as it is the standard in diplomacy and war. The choice of means and targets could vary - but certainly the nuclear response is not the first choice to respond to a non-nuclear aggression.

I meant for NATO to attack Russia, we all know it'll be only one country making that call. After bombing of Yugoslavia NATO cannot technically be called a "defensive" pact. If US declares war on Russia it'll do it under NATO no-fly zone, NATO intervention etc... Russia will have 30 nations declaring war on it and start attacking its air force. And people are willing to bet their lives that Russia won't use it's nuke arsenal under such circumstances? US used nukes on Japan for much dumber reasons.

...
Biden has already enough trouble with his popularity and chances of re-election to do that. He needs something he can sell as a successful peace and there is no way he can do so giving away Ukraine. Also, that would be a huge strategic error for the future and US analysts know that it would leave a less safe - thus more expensive - world behind.

US is the biggest unknown. Not a fan of Trump but with upcoming food shortages and gas prices, it's just too easy for a populist to win, Biden's ratings are already down and we're at the top of the hype. Think Biden is a lost cause, and that's an additional headache for EU. Consequences of their decision with Russia will be long term and painful, where any promises of support from US can flip in 2 years. Anyone seriously think that Trump will keep EU as a priority vs making America great once again, especially when China will be overtaking US?

...
Best case, well that depends for who? There are always competing interests but some ideas from top of my head:
-Russia: Ukraine surrendering (4 weeks ago or second best now), and Russia getting it back under it's sphere of influence
-US: Maximize chance of collapsing Russia by maximizing its pain via a proxy up to the last Ukrainian standing
-EU: This thing just going away ASAP, receiving natural resources to keep its heavy industries from collapsing and its population fed and warm during next winter
-Ukraine: Majority of populations just want to live "better" and don't really care about politics. Ukraine was the poorest country in EU and its GDP per capita was almost 4x lower than Russia. So financially, average Ukrainian would most likely be better off, under Russia. Freedom loving part of population are better off not coming back and staying in EU countries. Pretty much just like Cuba.
-China: Costly, long, drawn out conflict requiring huge investments from US with another Marshall Plan for Europe.
...

I think that it is very clear which side I am on: best case for Europe and Ukraine. US & China are only getting stronger with this and Putin's Tzardom, insofar as most of their population seem to be quite apathic about how they are governed, is not of my concern other than their ability to cause problems to others.

Certainly, not a war with WMD would fit a desirable solution to any party, which is the point of my post.

Again, I think that my position on this is very clear, but if I have to make it even more clear: a solution that causes a low number of civilian casualties, something the parties can live with given the damage inflicted to both sides, something that can be politically accepted for the relevant stakeholders, and, above all, a solution that does not encourage or that makes economically unfeasible any further conflict in the future.

On regards to your comments on EU, of course, ideally Europe wants this gone ASAP. While short term Germany chose to interlink with Russia, I think their leaders have gotten the message quite clear and the strategic exposure to Russia, while unchangeable short term, can and will be changed during the next five years. You cannot feed the bear no mater how nice he looks when asleep.

On your comment on Ukraine, people all over the world want to progress and "live better" in the ample sense. They know that this is not happening if they are part of the Tzardom. Also, people tend to like feeling free, even if freedom is never perfect something that, again, does not happen under a despotic foreign power's direct control.

Trades happen because they're beneficial for both parties, have you considered that maybe those cheap(er) natural resources what helped Germany become/stay where they are now? Do you think it can continue to stay competitive in global economy with it's high labor costs and now with natural resources say costing 20% more over China? Really doubt that their margins are that high. Germany already had to support economies of Greece, Portugal, Cyprus... pretty sure they didn't care and were fine with UA as it was pre 2014, and thinking WTF are you doing when US decided to hand out those freedom cookies. Don't see a good way out for them, oil/gas is a commodity, so it doesn't really matter how you shuffle it around the globe, all you're doing is making distribution less efficient. Freedom LNG from US would be at 20% premium and still won't cover their needs. Now on April 1st EU will have to start buying rubles to pay for gas while somehow trying to save face. One thing Russia has going for it is that after hitting the bottom it's hard to fall any lower, but EU still has a lot at risk and stuck between a rock and a hard place. These events can be a footnote in global history where (outside of UA) in 10yrs most won't remember it or it can end it.