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Right now the Bitstamp orderbook is about 10-15% of what it should be as the major exchange. The whole world now is setting their price based off Bitstamp and all comercial servies connect through Bitstamp as a hub. Bitstamp is basically the new gox. Yet it has this tiny book still. The book should have a bid of about 100M USD but instead it has a bid of 12M USD. It would take only a 30K market-sell dump to bring prices below $60. I know what you're going to say - I keep hearing it over and over: "Who would be stupid enough to do that"? It doesn't matter - the fact is that people CAN, and that people HAVE. There are dozens of wallets with 60K+ btc and bitcoin's history is littered with random 20K-50K dumps, as wall as panic events like silkroad. No serious trader is going to take a position, especially not a leveraged position, when they are vulnerable to this type of price swing - which can be caused by the action of only one person. Even if it bounced back, a leveraged position would be force liquidated and result in a total loss. The bid is important.
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Well, this could be the battle. The turning point for the downtrend since the last bubble? (And yes, it already popped IMO)
What battle? Still only 6000 volume on stamp. |
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There was also this giant order book on mtgox that kept filling up with new fiat bids every day - every day a new few slabs of 1K walls added, rather than this pathetic bitstamp orderbook where fiat is being subtracted every day and now 600 looks like a cliff to fall off of.
I know this is a bit off-topic for this thread, but. I remember the MtGox orderbook topped at about 21 million USD at the height of the bubble April 2013. Then we got withdraw delays and the delays kept in increasing until MtGox finally just stopped processing USD withdraws after "temporary" halting them two weeks and then announcing that USD withdraws had "resumed" - but in reality they never resumed. At this point in time quite a few big players bought BTC and transferred it out. There was a pretty big premium for doing so, but the difference was like $90 in real markets vs $105 at MtGox (huge in percent but not huge in $). Then MtGox started rallying and the bidside of the orderbook there started increasing until it topped at around $40 million. I was frequently completely confused by the big bids at MtGox during the last rally. "Who in their right minds deposit USD to an exchange you can not withdraw from?" I was thinking while posting warnings against MtGox in the "MtGox withdraw delays gathering" thread. It just made ZERO sense to me. I just could not understand where these big bids were coming from and who in their right minds would send huge amounts of fiat to an exchange you can't withdraw from. "Whales" have the resources to do some basic research, it's not like you throw a million dollars at something without doing a minimum of research. The bankruptcy documents clearly show that MtGox has about HALF (or slightly less than half) of the fiat supposedly in customer accounts. Their story - seriously - is that they "discovered" this on February 24th 2014 during their "investigation" into the supposed "malleability" Bitcoin theft. Their story is that they had NO IDEA that this large amount of fiat was missing prior to this date. I wonder: Was that large bid-side at MtGox and those big bids really actually there in the first place, or was this just a mirage of numbers-backed-by-nothing on our computer screens? Regardless of what you think of that: Reality is that MtGox really doesn't have more than half the fiat supposedly in customer accounts as of now. I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about. Actually $40M USD is not a large bid side at all for a price of $1000. At $100 there was a large bid side of $15M. So at $1000, a large bid side would be $150M. |
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If someone buys up to 640, we would be on our way up. People with a stake: buy more or people will start to panic sell as the price gradually slips away
Do you really think that setting the trend of the market is that simple and that us here on this thread have the power to do that? I think there are much bigger and more complicated forces at play and it wont make a difference. |
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1. It's now March 17
2. $15 is a major dip?
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I think we will see 560 in the next 24 hours. if this is the sale of stolen coins, we could see lower. his is a natural 3 wave decline, and should pass wave A extreme (590)
The 24h volume on bitstamp is still only 4705btc. If stolen coins were actually being sold, then you would start to see 6 digit volume numbers. Keep in mind also that over 3600 coins are mined per day. This obviously isn't stolen coins. This is a different problem. It's called "nobody is buying". |
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 One of the good features of the 2013 reversal was that the downtrend was broken right away on the initial surge - there was no guessing involved about whether the line was going to break and no work needed to try to 'break out' of it - it was already done. There was also this giant order book on mtgox that kept filling up with new fiat bids every day - every day a new few slabs of 1K walls added, rather than this pathetic bitstamp orderbook where fiat is being subtracted every day and now 600 looks like a cliff to fall off of. |
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Also, another driver would be Bitstamp failing - this would be worse than any other exchange failing because Bitstamp is integrated with many important services for bitcoin commerce and bitcoin exchanges - it is like a hub.
If none of these things happen, then there will be no mega apocalyptic crash. Though I'm not sure exactly what will happen. Maybe it will continue to follow our bullish trendline. Maybe it'll trade sideways for 22 months.
On the other hand, if serious exchanges start opening in wall street then I expect another huge rally. That is why I am long currently, although I will sell on the right signals.
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It is possible to consider both rallies in 2013 part of the same "bubble" (remember, everyone was complaining that there was no true final capitulation even for the spring rally, and the fall rally was driven up artificially by China, which hasn't had a real capitulation either). In this case, there needs to be another 2011-like capitulation and another 22 month waiting period before the next bubble.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
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What if resistance is logarithmic?  it looks to me like one or more of the points you built your resistance on was an outlier, skewing the slope. Can you draw the correct chart? Has it already broken out? |
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Oh my god it's almost like the price is set by the demand of its users and not by a government.
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I hate to think that we could sit at around 630 for about a month, and false break-outs either side eating away at your funds. nope. no more trading for me.
You might appreciate this chart then:  |
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What if resistance is logarithmic? |
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Wow so much drama over 2311 BTC volume.
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Here's mine:  |
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Did I zoom out enough. According to the intersection ~$462 is it.  Edit: Note that I only drew 2 lines, one starting out in April 2013 (lower line) and the other starting at November 29 2013 (upper line) I do not nor do I want anyone to think I have any "special" TA skills. if you are drawing a support back into a previous year, then it can't be linear - it has to be logarithmic |
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