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2261  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 30, 2013, 11:08:27 PM
Hey 7 years ago I already thought he's the coolest guy in the universe.

If you read the links above and find flaws let me know.
I am a very critical reader and yet I find myself sitting here going yep I pretty much agree with all of this.
That's almost unheard of for me so I read it all a second time and still nothing I could find fault with.

In my opinion anyone smart enough to come up with the above material may just be able to pull off a "bitcoin killer"
At the very least I think it would be unwise not to keep following this thread.
2262  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: November 30, 2013, 10:53:44 PM
Bitcoin is either a new currency going through a difficult birth or it is the scam of the millenia. Personally I don't think Satoshi intentioned it to be a scam. He had solved the double spend problem and was interested to see how it would evolve. Now whilst Satoshi is a brilliant problem solver and programmer he just didn't take into account human nature. This flaw has turned a fledgling currency into a Frankenstein.

If, at the outset, Satoshi intentioned for all this to happen then he has pulled off a crime of Biblical scale. A new word will enter the English dictionary, and quite possibly many other dictionaries. In years to come we won't just be talking of Pyramid selling, multi-level marketing, boiler rooms and Ponzi's. A Satoshi scam will sit head and shoulders above all other scams. People will ask 'Were you one of the people who got 'Satoshid'?

But out of the bonfire of digital currencies will emerge a new digital currency, one that does take into account the flaws and weaknesses of human nature. It just won't be Bitcoin.

November 30th 2013
The date 'Satoshid' and 'Satoshi Scam' first entered the English language

Quoted for historical relevance.
2263  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 30, 2013, 10:38:38 PM
I am confused as to why you think AnonyMint's proposed ideas are socialist. If anything they are the antithesis of socialism.

I quoted Marx only to drive home the point that you can start from a valid critique of the current economic system and then end up in
a solution that is far worse then the disease. I see that point did not come across the way I intended it to.

AnonyMint invents problems for Bitcoin that just are not there. The more I have considered the distribution model, the more ingenious it feels. In the beginning I supported a "more equitable" altcoin but then realized that it just cannot be done any other way (or let's say all the proposed alternatives are inferior: the further from Bitcoin, the more inferior). So now I think that:

- Bitcoin is doing just fine
- The alt would not fly anyway.

He has the exact opposite opinion, which I think is unfounded in truth, and that he is actually "butthurt" to have missed the 100x of 2013.

Most people here know even less about economics than me, so quoting marx may be a good idea since they don't understand it at all.

I highly recommend reading the following three links

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.html
http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html
http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html

Whatever you think about AnonyMint's chance of succeeding with his coin there is no denying that he has some insight that is worth seriously considering.
2264  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 30, 2013, 10:18:50 PM
The thread has truly deteriorated to be a socialists' lair. I had high hopes for this altcoin in the beginning, but now it seems so obvious that it is going nowhere.. Is there any way to unsubscribe the thread?  Sad

I am confused as to why you think AnonyMint's proposed ideas are socialist. If anything they are the antithesis of socialism.

I quoted Marx only to drive home the point that you can start from a valid critique of the current economic system and then end up in
a solution that is far worse then the disease. I see that point did not come across the way I intended it to.

Edit: I removed the Marx quote as it was tangential to the overall post and obviously not transmitting the idea I was trying to convey.

2265  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 30, 2013, 09:19:21 PM
AnonyMint I agree with your fundamental critique of finance and its consequences. What you have yet to prove in my opinion is the need of anonymity in such a currency. Should you succeed in your goals of creating a truly anonymous distributed currency that was debased over time and used world wide you would see the following benefits/consequences.

Consequences:
Starvation/shrinkage of government: Tax revenues will decline resulting in collapse of most government services
Loss of governmental ability to redistribute wealth
Government assault: Government would combat any such currency probably by trying to outlaw it and by supporting a non anonymous alternative
Increase in illegal activity: The ability to receive and spend funds over the net with complete anonymity will open the door to a wave of new and difficult to stop criminal activity.

Benefits:
Government can not tax people -> Less collectivism -> Higher degrees of freedom in the economy and thus more productivity

Given the tremendous consequences of an anonymous coin in terms of social instability/crime/government collapse why is your solution better then the status quo?

It seems to me that over time we are on a track to achieve your knowledge economy without an anonymous coin. True there will be repeated cycles of finance induced booms and busts over time but as the knowledge component of the economy grows these should get smaller and less relevant with time.

Essentially I am asking you to defend your thesis that Keynesian redistribution (partially controlled by vested interests) is worse then redistribution by anonymous coin algorithm.  

 
2266  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: November 30, 2013, 07:26:26 PM
Mint:  If your arguing that hard money will be rejected by the people and can only be forcefully imposed by government that is indeed a more nuanced position then I had originally though you had.  But I would still disagree.

I believe that individuals DO crave hard money, everyone knows that if they possess a harder form of money then everyone else they will be advantaged.  It's like the classic prisoners-dilemma where you win by betraying your partner, hard money is when everyone is betraying everyone.  This is why people (particularly 'libertarian' types who view other people only as means to their own ends) are attracted to things like BTC, their is a natural greedy response to acquire hard money like a 'sweet tooth' that makes us eat too much sugar, the systemic effects are terrible but most people do not think systemically so we end up stuck in a sub-optimal situation.  Basically I see a logical bottom-up explanation for how we got here so I don't attribute it to a top-down cabal, I always turn to the conspiratorial theories LAST.


Their are certainly instances in history were central authority forces hard money onto the populous (usually by taking away soft-money) but we can see from the rabid BTC zealots that exist that the imposition of hard money will be meet with Cheers and Applause by large swaths of the masses.  Thus is it not JUST a problem of government, and particularly now that so much inertia is built up behind it.  Most people only know our current money system which is harder then it should be (BTC is hyper-hard by comparison).  Given the existence of gold as an easily mined, easily traded commodity it is very easy to see how it became money all over the world, no central authority is necessary to do that.  Most negative government action has been in the form of suppression of alternatives to hard money (or the softening of the money standard ) rather then to create the norm of hard money in the first place.

Impaler: My take is that you and mint are essentially arguing the same point.
You are arguing that hard money accumulates into a few hands over time based on the natural tendency of individual actors acting in what they see as their own best interests and that no government is required for this process to occur.

Mint is arguing that once this occurs to a sufficient degree (gross income inequality) people will demand redistribution via government or if government is not responsive via a new government a la French Revolution. He is arguing that redistribution via government naturally arises as a result of your hording individuals above.

My question for you Mint is what makes you confident that starving governments via an anonymous coin would necessarily improve things. I agree with your underlying premise that we appear to be in a cycle of boom and bust based on finance/fractional banking/debt -> collectivism -> collapse -> gold standard -> restart cycle again. However at the end of each cycle so far knowledge has advanced and passive capital has declined compared to the same point in the cycle before it aka progress.

Removing the governments ability to tax will create other problems such as the inability to regulate and prevent tragedy of the commons type situations that require collective action.
2267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 28, 2013, 02:52:07 PM
So with heavy money flow in, and still low spending of bitcoin, it has to go up.

: )

cj

I agree we are just starting to hit the public mania phase of bitcoin.
Probably a little over half way down the pyramid right now.
There will be plenty of "strong hands" to sell to at the bottom.
2268  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 28, 2013, 12:42:08 AM
I have got to go get ready for turkey day folks so will sign off.

OP asked for bears to post their opinion on bitcoin. Not many true bitcoin bears on a bitcoin forum so I wanted to post my thoughts.

Good luck to you all with your investment. I will not be joining you.
Happy Thanksgiving
2269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 28, 2013, 12:35:21 AM
The only problem with all your arguments is that Bitcoin is just a protocol/specification for a crypto-currency. Bitcoin don't make any promise; actually Satoshi only wrote a paper and programmed the first implementation. Everything else is online communities: this forum, reddit, github, freenode and the trollbox. You can see a lot of people there saying any kind of bullshit, but they are not Bitcoin.
Also, even the exchanges warns you about how risky is buying btcs...

I agree with your statements of fact which are all true. But those facts are largely irrelevant.
The OP asked if bitcoin was sustainable. I argued that it is not. What Satishi promised is not relevant.
2270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 28, 2013, 12:23:50 AM
I honestly don't know. I am a bitcoin bear I own 0 coins.
The only reason I am in this forum is because I don't want to
miss it when someone smarter then me invents it.

I advise keeping a very close eye on every altcoin that comes out. One of them is likely to be at bitcoin killer. Until such a coin is released bitcoin will probably keep trending up because the narrative is so compelling it disguises the fact that it is in essence a giant pyramid scheme.



You realize how difficult it would be to be a "bitcoin killer"...I'm guessing not.
Any beneficial characteristic that an alt coin has can be added to bitcoin easily.

If it is so "revolutionary and/or beneficial' adding it to the protocol and getting the miners to adopt it would be a piece of cake.

The bitcoin protocol is not written in stone and can be changed by the dev's as fast as they can code...getting the acceptance of that fork is only as easy as everyone understanding why the change is important or beneficial.

It is a "living" protocol and can evolve instead of being obsoleted....it also has the advantage of being the first and the one with the largest global support network.



I believe bitcoin is flawed enough and the changes required significant enough that bitcoin will not adapt (due to inertia and vested interests) and this will die. If bitcoin radically evolves into a model that I think is sustainable I may change my mind but I think the odds are against it.

2271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 28, 2013, 12:10:55 AM
pyramid scheme
We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme.

Sounds like bitcoin to me. But opinions may differ the link in my post above goes to the huge argument about about bitcoin being a pyramid or not. Not interested in arguing the point.
2272  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 28, 2013, 12:03:43 AM

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  Wink

Yes but bitcoin threatens much more then just cash. The Bull argument is that bitcoin is going to be the world currency essentially transferring all the worlds wealth to a few early bitcoin investors.

To someone (even someone with hard assets like gold) this is a threat. Invest in bitcoin or be much poorer in the future.

People who think that are delusional and in most cases, only speak such ridiculous statements to drive people to buy.  There will always be several world currencies, even if they all became crypto-currencies (doubtful in our lifetime) there still would be hundreds of different currencies to service an ever growing world population.

Is the price sustainable?  Sure it is. $1000 is actually low for what Bitcoin really can be worth.  I'd expect to see many corrections and even crashes along the way but Bitcoin has proven very resilient and as long as there is no "super flaw" in the code or something found (not a tech guy) Bitcoin will be at least one of many major players in the future.

I agree that those people are delusional but that delusion is what is driving
the current price. Is there underlying real value sure mainly due to the ASIC miners which secure
transmissions. How much is that worth? Maybe a lot maybe nothing at all if something better comes along.
2273  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 27, 2013, 11:30:31 PM

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  Wink

Yes but bitcoin threatens much more then just cash. The Bull argument is that bitcoin is going to be the world currency essentially transferring all the worlds wealth to a few early bitcoin investors.

To someone (even someone with hard assets like gold) this is a threat. Invest in bitcoin or be much poorer in the future.
2274  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 27, 2013, 11:25:11 PM
I honestly don't know. I am a bitcoin bear I own 0 coins.
The only reason I am in this forum is because I don't want to
miss it when someone smarter then me invents it.

I advise keeping a very close eye on every altcoin that comes out. One of them is likely to be at bitcoin killer. Until such a coin is released bitcoin will probably keep trending up because the narrative is so compelling it disguises the fact that it is in essence a giant pyramid scheme.

2275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. on: November 27, 2013, 11:05:33 PM

Bitcoin is the perfect asset bubble

1) Take a truly revolutionary idea (cryptocurrency)
2) Apply it to a pyramid scheme https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=341594.0
3) Tell people they will be rich but only if the "have strong hands" and never sell
4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.
5) Sell gradually to all the "strong hands" until the game is up and bitcoin dies at the hands of a better designed rival that is not based on a pyramid
2276  Economy / Economics / Re: How to convince my family to invest in Bitcoins? on: November 27, 2013, 10:38:15 PM
I recommend not advising family members to buy bitcoin
Educating them about it is fine but bitcoin may go to 0
Do you want to be responsible for that?
It may very well go up but it may not.

If you really want to get them to invest first read this entire thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=341594.0

Make sure you understand all the arguments presented
and fully grasp the risks involved.

2277  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 26, 2013, 09:04:55 PM

They are not actually that strong, but this is just my opinion and your choice indeed. Also he is known for deleting posts (his own and the replies to them) where he had been proven flat-out wrong. I guess that's why he has a high ignore score...

Focus on the message rather then the messenger.
At the very least AnonyMints arguments are novel and interesting.
The possibility exists that (although most of us would hate to admit it) that he is correct.
2278  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 26, 2013, 08:26:00 PM
It is not easy to see yourself, but your ignore button has reached its maximum color Sad

AnonyMint is the first person I have seen get ignored for posting annoyingly strong arguments in an arrogant manner. Lots of people have thin skins.

Personally I make an effort to seek out his posts.
2279  Economy / Economics / Re: Ethics and Pyramids on: November 23, 2013, 04:36:46 PM
Bitcoin is like gold (gold is worth whatever someone pays and also the scarcity of gold makes it worth more)

I think of bitcoin more like shell money
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_money
Early adopters get the the easiest to find shells and then convince everyone else they are money.

you're better off buying than mining. if you want to mine something go for Litecoins. as far as the pyramid part, see my sig.
If I got in, I would do it via ASIC mining. I would rather fund the ASIC manufacturer (someone who worked/invested/built the latest
shell finder) then pay into the pyramid.

You believe that it's a pyramid and that you 'll burn someone else but you don't worry about yourself getting burned first?
That doesn't make sense.

I think I am sophisticated enough to get out in time. Also I think we are only in the middle this thing right now with lots of future investors to come.
Cryptocurrency is one of the most compelling ideas I have ever seen. That underlying idea combined with slick marketing gives bitcoin the potential to form into one of the greatest asset bubbles in history.

A pyramid scheme stops when fiat money runs out. It is the same for housing and IT bubble, or even a pension fond

But what will happen to bitcoin when fiat money runs out? People will start to use real goods and services to exchange for bitcoin, thus the appreciation for bitcoin will continue until it exhausted all the available resources on the planet

Typically with most asset bubbles they crash and crash hard when the fiat money runs out. Your conclusion does not necessarily follow your premise.

If you feel that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme, but that cryptocoins are good in theory, then find an altcoin that you believe in. They are all going to go up for the next few years.

There is not an altcoin yet that I believe in though I am hopeful one is coming. I think bitcoin will pave the way for a truly global cryptocurrency that is widely distributed from the start (pretty much my main requirement for believing in an altcoin).

It seems like the the overwhelming answer is that there is no problem with investing. I will probably do so. I think bitcoin has a long way to go yet and I hate to leave potential gains on the table.
2280  Economy / Economics / Ethics and Pyramids on: November 23, 2013, 07:41:08 AM
So I am struggling with an ethical quandary.
I am not currently a bitcoin investor but I am thinking
Of getting into the mining game in a big way.

Like many here I think Bitcoin is going to continue to do very
well at least for the next year or two.

Problem is I also think bitcoin is a pyramid scheme. I believe my gains will come at the expense of someone in the future who is going to get burned.

Now obviously if you don't believe it's a pyramid there is no problem. Unfortunately, However, I do so is it morally right for me to participate?

I think the bitcoin bubble is overall a good thing as it
will awaken people to crypto currency and its possibilities.
Does that justify participating in a Pyramid scheme that I worry
may end in tears for a lot of people?


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