Even with an auction that is almost 30k bitcoins that someone is buying at auction instead of going to the exchange. Why would someone do that instead of just buying on the exchange?
They would only do that if they can get them MUCH cheaper at the auction. And why would someone with $25 million want to buy cheap coins? To sell them. Where do you think they would sell them?
If someone with $25 million wanted to buy and hold, they would have done so by now.
I agree, with one small but relevant correction, in caps and bold. |
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Compared with the 1093$ (Gox price) peak on the 6th January, the bid side is lower by about 10% and the ask side is higher by about 65%.
Long term MACD is dropping steadily, 12h looks like it will soon get into negative. On Google trends, from the peak of 100 on the
28th November 2013, it's now steady around 27, so my guess is that good news only delay the inevitable.
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My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September? If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks. Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013: I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice
Here's another dated Sept. 15th: That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.
Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
Sept. 28th: IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.
Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts): It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$, and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.
It seems someone doesn't understand the BEARS ONLY title, but since I was attacked, let's straighten the facts: 1) the capitulation (wave C bottom) of the previous bubble ended on the 5th July 2013, and the capitulation of this one is still to come. Nothing wrong here, unless you count the bottom until the 7th July, when the new bubble started. 2) for September 2013, once the market hit 148$ on Gox on the 1st, 150$ was a ceiling that wasn't reached in that sub-wave. 3) the SR crash happened on the 2nd October, not the 3rd as I predicted, and the price went down to 110$ (85$ on Bitstamp), not 115$. The bad SR news may have triggered it a bit early and stronger than 'normal'. 4) it wasn't corrective wave A, only corrective wave 2. Low volume before it made accurate timing difficult. 5) yes I was wrong, I couldn't believe that in 2013 there would be people willing to pay 1000$ for a bitcoin. You could have done your homework better, I made some worse predictions than those. But in the meantime I understood the distortions of the waves that made me misidentify the market's stages. And I had to think bigger. |
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My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
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... it looks unlike 2011 ...
The problem with the 2011 bubble deflation is that Gox was hacked and closed down for several days, in the middle of wave B, so the equivalent of this 6th January rise to 1093$ is missing from the 2011 charts. Remains to be seen how low it will drop now, in 2011 it dropped to about 11.5$ on the 5th July, that was a 64% drop from the 32$ peak. For comparison, 64% of 1240$ is 445$, so this bear market still may be closer to 2011 than to 2013. |
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Movements take about 2x longer now than in April 2013, so my guesstimate is late April, not late May.
The difference is back then most coins had already appeared in the books during corrective wave A,
and that's why wave A was so harsh, while now most coins have yet to come (mostly from China).
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Invest in Bitcoin at the end of this bear market, hold until the top (or close to) of the next bull market and then buy yourself a luxury car.
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Its a great opening post but I don't think bitcoins will fill that void. There is a flaw in bitcoins which is that the blockchain is increasing exponentially in size . So far it doesn't look like a problem but with compounding it will become a problem, that is certain and might hit sooner than we think. How it is going to be handled is not yet established! At the moment 14G is already a hassle, it takes days to sync with the blockchain. What when it is 14Terrabytes ? This will be too big for peer to peer decentralisation. More and more specialised bitcoin nodes will be needed or to put another way more and more centralisation of the bitcoin network. I'm on the bitcoin bandwagon for now as the profit potential is still there but this concern has bugged me for a while. I've yet to see a response that makes sense. If I put a tinfoil hat on I might even think this has been a design feature that centralisation will eventually be required.
Maybe not quite exponentially, but close, 3x during the last year versus 5x in 2012. At this rate it's going to be unusable in a couple of years, without major changes. Those changes may have to decrease security, making the network somewhat vulnerable. It's probably a difficult problem to solve, and it's looming closer. |
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The OP thinks of September 2013, I think of late April 2013.
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Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !
Nope, there was no large drop in May 2011, it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop. And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird. |
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HODLers, if you don't give alms to KARHU today, next days you'll be sorry.
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the bearishness can you feel it?  Not really, the market is now at only at 1 / 9 of wave C. The real bearishness will be seen in the last 1 / 3 of wave C. |
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One who buys only 900 USD worth of merchandise with 1 BTC obviously does not believe that 1 BTC will be worth 10,000 USD in 2015...  What is that supposed to mean - We're all supposed to refrain from using bitcoin for years until it's reached its ideal valuation? You're telling bitcoiners not to use bitcoin? What sense does that make? No thanks. And that's not going to help the btc economy. If nobody used it then it wouldn't be worth anything. That's a paradox! He's not telling you to refrain from using bitcoin, if you really have to. There are drug dealers posting in these forums that need to use cryptocurrencies, but the Average Joe (well, assuming he doesn't use illegal drugs) doesn't need bitcoin to do online shopping. Someone who buys now some expensive stuff that he doesn't really need with bitcoins, through a retailer, has the same effect on the market as selling on an exchange and using the fiat for the purchase. So he can claim that he holds tight, but he just takes advantage of the opportunity offered by the retailer instead of dumping (the retailer will dump). I encourage the holders to buy stuff (even what they don't need) with bitcoins, this will bring more coins to the exchanges and the price down. |
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Aren't you freaking out?
That is 124000 USD more worth of probable coldstored Bitcoins that are heading straight for cash out on exchange!
You are correct, but the uber-bulls don't get it. The current price is sustained largely by hoarding, keeping the ask sum and coin sales low on the exchanges. Overstock and other merchants have to sell the coins for fiat immediately, this is bearish news. They probably won't sell on Gox, because of the withdrawal issues, but Bitstamp may see more seller pressure. |
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0 (zero). SHA-256 will be cracked much sooner than 2045.
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Google trends for Argentina & Bitcoin today: 17, global bitcoin: 31 (from 100 on the 28th November 2013).
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Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices. |
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I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.
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The comments above are typical for the peak of wave B.
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I wonder if on the 22nd April 2013 the mood was similar...
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