For everybody claiming that people were dumb for keeping their bitcoins on an exchange. Consider the fact that hardware wallets weren’t released back then.

Only way to keep your crypto was using something like Electrum or Armory or do some paper wallet with cold storage. Most couldn’t do that because it was much more complex than a simple hardware wallet.

The hash rate doesn’t tell much because there were a new line of ASICs released. So many could of shut off their rigs but they had the old inefficient rigs.

Regarding the miner output, I agree that I am surprised that they didn’t sell. They most likely assumed that $100K would be a great place to sell and like most missed their opportunity to sell at $60K.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

Bear market or not. I don’t think now is the correct time for a bottom. I think we will trade sideways until end of Summer and sometime in either late Oct/Nov/Dec we will bottom out.

Price can be $20K then or maybe $15K. Most of the market bottoms were during periods of extreme chop and most gave up out of foredom.

After Luna and UST collapsed I just stopped trading it all together. Basically a highly manipulative market.

I remember when there was word that Binance will stop trading and a few hours later it said it would relaunch trading and decided to stay out of it. Nothing more than a pump and dump and very volatile.

The funding rates were also crazy from time to time. So you end up taking a high percentage for a trade that is against you.

If you really want techniques like this to work. You can’t trade the 1M or 5M charts. You really should be looking at the 1H and higher. And use m15 to make an entry.

Sure you can trade more often but the 1M is mostly chop. Especially right now in the summer with no liquidity. If you want to trade it anyways do it on the NY open at least when it’s more active. Rather than the boring China sessions.

666 is already pretty bad, maybe if it was half of that it would be bad however the issue here is that the difficulty for ETC won’t stay this low after ETH merge happens.

The 666 day could end up being double or triple. And before you know it, it’s another door stop. Which leads me to think who is actually buying these right now. Doesn’t seem to make any sense whatever. BTC asic I would understand but never for an altcoin ASIC.

Yes it’s pretty crazy how a few months ago, everybody was saying $100K is locked in and $250K was possible. And now it’s the complete opposite.

Now we are getting predictions for $10K or $5k and now I am seeing $1K. Which Leads me to believe that the true bottom is somewhere near.

I remember back in late 2018 when we broke $6K and people were saying $1K would be the low but $3.5K was instead.

You need to realize that technical analysis is never 100%. It doesn’t take into account what is going on with the global markets.

If we keep getting high inflation every month then we will keep dipping and there is no technicals on CPI. It’s based on factors that traders can’t control. Hence why it’s called speculation because nobody knows what will happen. If it was easy such as using some RSI then everybody would be millionaires.

I think we won’t know if crypto has capitulated for a few more months. If we trade sideways till the end of the year then I would say that we bottomed last month.

However there is still a lot of uncertainly such as the large CPI we have been getting. If we keep getting High inflation numbers then fed might hike again and much higher percentages. If that happens we might go lower.

Yes many people want to be a trader however it isn’t for most. Sure it’s nice making tons of money, working few hours and trading anywhere with an internet connection. However most don’t make it.

99% of all short term traders lose money in the long run. There are very little that make a career out of it. It isn’t for most people. During a bull market it’s easy however in a bear or sideways market it’s difficult.

I remember about a month back, the government officials had some event about the food crisis in their country. They basically ended up getting attacked by the angry citizens and one thing that stood out was a new $100K Range Rover which was owned by one of the government officials.

Basically they brought a $100K vehicle to an event to help figure out how to feed the poor and that pretty much tells you everything about that government. Corruption.

Yes some people will want to get paid in fiat however they will start to sell around the same time that other people get their BTC distributed. So they will be selling in a downward bear market and creating lots of sell pressure.

Unless they find some OTC deal with some large players and do it that way. Either way, when the coins start to move it will result in some panic. Whether the selling gets absorbed by large whales and quickly recovers will be something we need to wait for.

Indicators never work 100%. Many new people find some ebook or course and it teaches about indicators like MACD, RSI, moving average, etc and they think it’s that easy. Doesn’t work like that.

If it worked 100% of the time, nobody would work. Everybody would just trade. You only use indicators to get some confirmation but you need other signals whether to buy or sell. You can’t just rely on a signal indicator. A better indicator is trend. And maybe general sentiment.

The issue with back testing and paper trading is that it doesn’t take into account real world issues such as slippage and whether you get a fill or not.

Especially when you are trading the 1M. A bit can easily pretend to enter a trade however in real life you might of not gotten a fill to get in the trade or get out of the trade.

Try trading with real money and you will see it’s not as easy as it sounds.

Yes it’s very low compared to a decade ago or during the global finance crisis when it was around 1.50 EURUSD. I remember trading forex back then and the ratio was already around 1.30-1.40 or so. To have it reach parity is crazy.

However keep in mind back in 2015 or so it came close to parity also. Low was like $1.05 and people then assumed also that it would break parity but it never did.

MtGox had no KYC but it doesn’t matter because they are not distributing the coins.

The coins are being distributed by the trustee and pretty much anyone who wants their coins back needed to KYC long time ago when the proceedings started.

When Bitcoin rallied in 2017, they finally became solvent and they had enough to pay back balances in USD. However now they got 137K BTC and users will get that also. People KYC long time ago if they had large balances.

Keep in mind BTC topped at $1000 back then and many had coins in the $100-200 range.

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

I think the most common ways how most people end up losing money in crypto is by leverage trading derivative products and buying altcoins.

Many people with like $3000 worth of crypto won’t get rich, so they send it to a futures exchange and usually use 10-25x leverage. Which usually ends up liquidating them eventually.

Second reason is buying some altcoins hoping it will go 100x. Usually they all end up losing 99 % of their value. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only good long term solutions.

No you don’t understand. The coins are not at MtGox.
Some trustee has them. And the people who lost their BTC back in 2014 filed claims for their lost bitcoins.

They will get them most likely sent to a new BTC wallet and those who want USD will have it sold by the trustee and most likely would be sent by bank transfer.