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Is anybody else seeing a big dump approaching?
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Too expensive, you'll have hard time to compete with KNCMiner and Bitfury if all of you 3 deliver with such price. They're both half priced.
Today they are half priced. Let's see where it is the btc/usd exchange rate in September. I'd be surprised if it's not much lower. |
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Bears roaring  |
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Taking into account that USD on gox are probably just numbers... Yeah
Aren't just numbers 95% of all the USD in circulation? |
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--------Sorry if this is the wrong place------
According to some posts in this discussion, mining with the USB sticks is no longer profitable is never been profitable, not when they came out, not now. However, when inputting the data in Litecoin mining calculators, it shows a profitability of:
30 days 12.93686804 LTC 0.35149470 BTC 34.18 USD
Am I missing something? (using 330 kH/s)
That would mean they pay themselves off in 3-4 months assuming current difficulty. I understand it should go up, but how can this be such a bad investment? Even if they pay off in 6-8 months?
I'm quite new to this, so I appreciate any replies.
--------Sorry again if this is the wrong place!------
First, let me correct it for you (see above). Secondly, these are ASIC which only purpose is to mine Bitcoin or another SHA256 based coin. Litecoin is Scrypt based, so you you can't use them to mine Litecoin. |
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Just to add a little bit of spice to this thread, I will leave this epic video titled " Hitler got screwed by Bitcoin weekend dip and is reminiscing about his Bitcoin mining career" for those who are new in here and missed it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4axmD2YvPnALulz guaranteed. |
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From KNC's website : “Thanks Emilia, Superb customer service, I have ordered from Avalon and BFL. Avalon was quick off the blocks and had really great service. I have an order from BFL and they have plenty more staff, yet they're service is really bad, and of course I'm still waiting for my hardware. KnCMiner is really showing the industry a new standard, keep up the good work. I'm proud to be one of your customers.  ” Feedback from one of our customers. Honestly, being this a very time sensitive project I would appreciate more something like this: " Chip order placed! ETA for the chips 2nd week of August. First 500 units to be produced and shipped in the following 2/3 weeks" But I guess now someone will write a long post about how impatient we all are, a pain in the ass, etc. etc. etc. |
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According to me, Friedcat is doing his best to keep the profit of ASICminer as high as possible. If ASICminer is earning profit, it means also its shareholders are earning dividends. So some parts of profits are still being shared with bitcoin community From http://www.asicminer.co/about.htmlDividend payment. The income, including mining income, sales via Bitcoins, and fiat income transferred to Bitcoins, are paid to ASICMINER and Bitfountain shareholders proportionally after the ASICMINER shares are paid by 0.1BTC each from the day when dividends began to be paid, when maintenance costs, labor costs, and R&D costs are taken. More over in this case - bitcoin difficulty has kind of doubled since 60 days. How ever i would see people who think Friedcat did wrong in reducing the price will be the ones who bought these at 2BTC and the ones who think it is good are the ones who were thinking of buying but did not buy at 2BTC and people who think it was not good before as well as not good even now are the ones who do the calculation of ROI and stay away from. In other words whether you bought this at 2BTC or at 1BTC, you will not break even. You are just spending money just to have this fun instrument and have the fun of being a part of mining. People who needed the fun sooner paid twice than people who could wait for its price to drop. I know i sound harsh but it is what Math is saying to me. On the other hand if u think - because there are cheaper usbs now, the network will have more hashing power and hence your 2BTC usb would mine less than what it could if there no price drop - come out of that as the change of even 1% in global hash rate needs 5000 usbs powered on. No sudden big change will happen to hash rate because of these usbs. Man, don't try too hard, I've been trying to explain all your points many times (bolded ones especially), but still there is people that seem that do not want to understand. |
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I am on the fence. I have a really low order number, because I purchased within minutes. I will probably give it till the first few days in July, and if I don't hear anything... yeah....
I am in the same boat as you pikeadz... low 45XX order ( < 4520). If I don't get shipping info in the first few days of July, I am probably going to put in a refund request... or at least see if I can get a refund on half my order. With a May delivery date and no raw chip orders, this deal was a no-brainer. Now it takes a lot of brain to figure out what the options are. Just figure out a hashrate where at such point delivery would become unbearable, and cancel before then if not delivered by that point. Yep... and thus the lots of brain required. Will the growth be steep linear or exponential? I believe it was 6.7M when batch 3 orders opened. The exponential trend is pretty ugly and with my projections you need to overclock to be able to get to break-even. Does this reduce the lifespan of the miner? Lots to think about... I really enjoy mining (and my GPU miner box just croaked and I am debating whether to patch it back together), but it might be better to wait for the chip clones... 100BTC for 85GHs for a 3-4 week lead on clones doesn't seem like good value. It's not going to be linear. It's not going to be linear for the next months. But it won't be exponential forever, we can bet that at some point in the future the exponential growth will revert to linear growth. |
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It's not the vendor who sets the price, it's the market which functions following supply&demand.
I'm ashamed to be explaining such basic things, but some of the guys in here seem to do not understand basic free market principles.
I'm ashamed that you don't get the obvious... YES THE VENDOR SETS THE PRICE. When is the last time you went to buy a brand new (insert favorite technology here) and you got to pick the price? That is just not the way retail sales works. EVERY manufacturer sets a manufacturers suggested retail price (msrp) and that is the price used by the ENTIRE distribution channel to caculate each players profit along the distribution chain. And when the Vendor sets a price and then days later cuts the price in half then the CUSTOMER GETS PISSED. How is this not OBVIOUS? My young son understands and he can barely read. Friedcat and company FUCKED the community. Read through the thread and you will quickly see ALL the PEOPLE who are FORMER customers of ASICMINER products who just wrote, right here in this forum, that they will NEVER buy another ASICMINER product becuase the VENDOR DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO PRICE PRODUCTS and the VENDOR HAS A HISTORY OF SCREWING EARLY ADOPTERS. How is this not obviously STUPID BUSINESS PRACTICE? Seriously, is this how big business operates? NO? Why? BECAUSE THEY UNDERSTAND THE COST OF LOSING CUSTOMERS OVER STUPID POLICY DECISIONS can be calculated in REAL DOLLARS. At this point any reasonable person will conclude that ASICMINERS GREEED is larger than ASICMINER and the STUPID PRICING policy is driving customers away. Count all the lost sales and goodwill destroyed by ASICMININERS desire to eek out a few extra coins today. Instead they COULD HAVE eeked out our coins for years and years and years if they had treated the community with a modicum of respect. Instead Friedcat has just become Inaba2.0I don't see how friedcat did anything wrong - in any case the blame is all on you, for purchasing overpriced hardware and now feeling butthurt because prices are starting to be adjusted to reality. This was an expected situation, the forum is full of posts of people saying they would buy some "when they dropped in price". From the very first day. And FYI, prices for these USB things will drop more. Only a few customers bought at the initial 2BTC price. More people will buy at 1BTC. Even more at 0.5BTC, etc. You are a fool if you do not realize that's what is going to happen, and it will be the best both for the market and for ASICMiner shareholders. In fact, quote me on this: we will see these things below 1BTC very soon. Look at it this way: If you thought that at 2BTC they were a good investment, better for you - at 1BTC they are an even better investment! This is not true, because you're only looking BTC price. You need to look Ghs/difficulty price, and now they're at the same price when they started selling them. Of course if the difficulty keeps rising you will see them @0.5 , @0.1 and less. Also, in the future the could be overpriced @0.05 if difficulty is really really high. So, no point speaking about price without caring about current difficulty. Use a simple rule of thumb: If you cannot recover your investment in BTC in 30 to 45 days considering constant difficulty from the moment you deploy your hardware, the most likely scenario with current difficulty projections is that you won't be able recover your investment at all. Considering that rule of thumb, the Block Erupter were overpriced when they were launched and they are still overpriced now. Same thing is valid for the blades. Still, the market is willing to pay and Friedcat had been flawlessly squeezing the maximum profit from the market. Kudos to Friedcat, flawless management and a great service to his shareholders. |
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I am on the fence. I have a really low order number, because I purchased within minutes. I will probably give it till the first few days in July, and if I don't hear anything... yeah....
I am in the same boat as you pikeadz... low 45XX order ( < 4520). If I don't get shipping info in the first few days of July, I am probably going to put in a refund request... or at least see if I can get a refund on half my order. With a May delivery date and no raw chip orders, this deal was a no-brainer. Now it takes a lot of brain to figure out what the options are. Just figure out a hashrate where at such point delivery would become unbearable, and cancel before then if not delivered by that point. I guess everybody will wait till the two next difficulty adjustments... If the increase is big and there is no tracking number in the email, I foresee mass refund requests. Its kinda worrying to see that people who decided to request a refund early havent been contacted yet after 6/7 days, I wonder what will happen when the rate of refund requests will increase. |
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It's not the vendor who sets the price, it's the market which functions following supply&demand.
I'm ashamed to be explaining such basic things, but some of the guys in here seem to do not understand basic free market principles.
I'm ashamed that you don't get the obvious... YES THE VENDOR SETS THE PRICE. When is the last time you went to buy a brand new (insert favorite technology here) and you got to pick the price? That is just not the way retail sales works. EVERY manufacturer sets a manufacturers suggested retail price (msrp) and that is the price used by the ENTIRE distribution channel to caculate each players profit along the distribution chain. And when the Vendor sets a price and then days later cuts the price in half then the CUSTOMER GETS PISSED. How is this not OBVIOUS? My young son understands and he can barely read. Friedcat and company FUCKED the community. Read through the thread and you will quickly see ALL the PEOPLE who are FORMER customers of ASICMINER products who just wrote, right here in this forum, that they will NEVER buy another ASICMINER product becuase the VENDOR DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO PRICE PRODUCTS and the VENDOR HAS A HISTORY OF SCREWING EARLY ADOPTERS. How is this not obviously STUPID BUSINESS PRACTICE? Seriously, is this how big business operates? NO? Why? BECAUSE THEY UNDERSTAND THE COST OF LOSING CUSTOMERS OVER STUPID POLICY DECISIONS can be calculated in REAL DOLLARS. At this point any reasonable person will conclude that ASICMINERS GREEED is larger than ASICMINER and the STUPID PRICING policy is driving customers away. Count all the lost sales and goodwill destroyed by ASICMININERS desire to eek out a few extra coins today. Instead they COULD HAVE eeked out our coins for years and years and years if they had treated the community with a modicum of respect. Instead Friedcat has just become Inaba2.0I don't see how friedcat did anything wrong - in any case the blame is all on you, for purchasing overpriced hardware and now feeling butthurt because prices are starting to be adjusted to reality. This was an expected situation, the forum is full of posts of people saying they would buy some "when they dropped in price". From the very first day. And FYI, prices for these USB things will drop more. Only a few customers bought at the initial 2BTC price. More people will buy at 1BTC. Even more at 0.5BTC, etc. You are a fool if you do not realize that's what is going to happen, and it will be the best both for the market and for ASICMiner shareholders. In fact, quote me on this: we will see these things below 1BTC very soon. Look at it this way: If you thought that at 2BTC they were a good investment, better for you - at 1BTC they are an even better investment! |
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Then you will loose even more money and still dont make a ROI.
This is an irritating price-correction in such a short amount of time indeed. As much as I'm tempted to purchase another 50 of these, I just can't rationalize it given the possibility they may be priced at 0.50 BTC each next month  They will, just wait 1 month and see the price maybe 0.2 BTC each, a lesson to learn, avalon products will rise , asicminer products will drop, early adopters should go Avalon, Asicminer products just wait a month or two to see a good drop price. Blades will drop 50% just wait. Well, not really. First Avalon batches were "cheap" because they were preorders with months in lead time, while Asicminer was expensive because the delivery is immediate. And still, avalon batch #3 is still a pre-order with months in lead time and its very expensive. That said, both Block Erupter USB and blades will drop A LOT. The only way to profit from ASICMiner hardware is to count on the Greater Fool Theory. |
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Well, my Jalapenos have shipped (honestly thought I'd never see the day) and was wondering how many people are solo mining with their units. Currently an upgraded Jalapeno will take about half a year for 25 bitcoins, at the current level of difficulty. Realistically it could be years before a single block is hit, and quite possibly never. Risky proposition when one considers the unit may never pay for itself with solo mining.
Solo mining with 5-7GH/s? Seriously guys, what are you smoking? |
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I for one will be writing letters to my elected representatives explaining why bitcoin is important to me as a Californian.
Begging for your freedom is a waste of time in America. They don't give a shit about you or why you think bitcoin is important. Wake up! You're a slave and don't even know it. I guess he picked his nick " Alicein Wonderland" for a reason  |
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Will you have the guts to do the right thing when the pressure is on? If yes, I applaud and honor you. If not, here are a few cheap excuses to use (after all, who wants to admit conditioning or cowardice):
Without the rule of law, everything would fall apart.
Without regulation, criminals would destroy everything.
Yes, regulation is coercive, but along with it comes a certain amount of public benefit!
I got ripped off, and someone has to fix it!
If I can’t sue someone, they can get away with ripping me off!
We can’t get people to use Bitcoin unless it’s authorized.
We need approval or we will forever remain a tiny market.
A significant number of Bitcoin people will say these things (and others), but the real truth will be that they are scared, or are still hoping to get mega-rich, or just can’t rip the “government is our friend” meme out of their heads. But mostly it will be fear.
We all feel fear of course, but some of us are determined enough to do the right thing, even when we’re afraid.
So, here’s a final tip: If you run into someone who can feel the fear and still do the right thing, don’t let go of them.
you stole that from an old radical: http://www.dgcmagazine.com/the-old-radical-how-bitcoin-is-being-destroyed/ The post linked above contains simple and plain truth. But really I don't get how a lot of people just do not understand. |
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Hey Adam, you where saying that Bitcoin will reach $180 in 5 bussines days correct? Well, that is 2nd july, the day of the Bitcoin London conference and i think Max Keiser is going too  -> https://exante.eu/press/news/310/So it is your secret? If yes, do you really think that the conference hype would put us at $180 or near it? Why so much confidence?  |
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His profit margins are still close to 90%, and he's planning to ship 6 million of these at the lower price, as opposed to the 3 million at the lower price.
Source for that figures? This is the info I have: We had shipped the first 200 USBs today immediately after they are out of the factory. Soon more than 10,000 shiny little stones will be distributed international and quietly erupt blocks.
In any case I doubt friedcat has shipped more than 10,000 of those, so you are certainly out by orders of magnitude. Just calculate the hashrate of 3 million Block Erutpter USB: 336MH/s * 3,000,000 = 1,008TH/s. Compare it to the 170TH/s we currently have on the network. |
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Yeah, forget about the scammer tag.
It just cannot be that somebody gets away with this. And there is no other place (I know of) in this forum to make such matters public.
I understand. It feels bad to lose time in joke auctions. In my opinion and due to the recent events, this is definitely not a good place to run or participate in auctions. Shill bidding is officially tolerated, bids are not binding... Auctions subofurums are just scammer paradise and a very ugly way to lose time. |
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