Genius. The OP does not even understand probability and thus gambler's fallacy, and still he has the balls to create his own "dice" site, which he is running like a ponzi. And people is investing in it, its really true that greed is so powerful that scammers will never run out of work. Never. OP: you did not find any "hole". You are just playing Martingale with a big (thousands of coins) bankroll. If you play long enough, you will lose. That's it. And that's why some investors are begging you "to please go on playing". Then, you are an untrustworthy scumbag. You are so dumb you think Martingale is a "hole", you indeed think you have found a vulnerability, and you are selling it for 111BTC ( https://nakowa.herokuapp.com/). That's a scam of the lowest kind. |
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Finally!
Best of lucks, we need some serious competition.
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I guess that estimating slippage in function of volume will be tricky, market depth is constantly changing and a two equal market orders executed with a 5 minute difference can have dramatically different outcomes in term of slippage because of limit orders that quickly appear and disappear. Anyhow I'm really interested in the mythology you will follow and the results you will get!
Please consider copying your post to a dedicated thread. It's golden information and shouldn't be buried in the middle of another thread.
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Didn't understand your last sentence. You mean USA is OK with its allies massacring "other" people, but not "their own people"?
I think I'm getting it wrong because is obvious nonsense. The USA didn't care much about Bahrein slaughtering its own citizens.
This is ONLY about the money. Human lives don't mean shit to those pulling the strings.
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Oda: excellent post. You really covered everything. It definitely needs a thread on its own.
While I was reading it I was going to reply that when deciding a strategy, its mandatory to factor also a) the amount of time you will need to invest in trading and b) your trading volume, which will influence the amount of slippage you will have... But you already covered that too, bravo!
Finally, in my opinion 0.5% slippage on average is currently achieved by trading a rather smallish volume, but I guess that it is a good estimation for 90% of the readers in this forum.
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So:
- when were the units paid?
- the coins moved only on August 20th. What did the OP do with the 20% profit he cashed in because of the exchange rate increase?
- will he be honoring full BTC refunds?
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Blegh, I upgraded before I saw this thread. Everything is gone. I had a lot of codes in there. What a jerkoff from google, someone ought to be fired for this.
Sorry to insist, but those who use Google Auth without a backup (paper or otherwise) shouldn't be allowed to use anything regarding digital finance. Did you know that phones get lost, stolen, become bricks, fall and break, their memory can fail... Or maybe there's a buggy update that screws them over... Really, didn't you know that? Seriously guys, I use google auth too, and first thing I do from the very first day I use it is to make backups of EVERY key, and BTW I scan the QR from the backup to be sure everything is OK. Do you even think and understand what you are doing before using something like that? |
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The only thing that shocks me is that any of this is news
Exactly the same sentiment here. How is this news? Like the Prism program... Or the Wikileaks "shocking discoveries".... |
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The market is moving away from the pre-order model anyway as more and more vendors enter the space. The evidence of this is all over the forums. Compare knc's reception to hashfast's reception. People are slowly wising up to the dangers thanks to BFL and Avalon. Soon vendors will not have the option to offload 100% of the risks associated with hardware development to their investors. Vendors are having a lot more difficulty getting investors to throw pre-order funds at them even now.
People were critical of hashfast not because of the preorder model but because of the payment methods. They only accept straight up bitcoins, bitpay and bank wires - which is a bit crapola. KNC on the other hand has cc, paypal, bitpay, bank wire. The wise would be using PayPal or CC. Hell I'm sure if Cointerra or Hashfast had CC/PayPal, heaps of people would've jumped in. Same can said for any other company out there. Personally, I want to mine to obtain bitcoin, so why do they assume I already had a plentiful supply? If I had an amount of bitcoin enough to buy their machine, why would I want their machine?  ? To mine more bitcoins? |
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Wow, genius. You do not have numbers about Bitcoiners, but still the title of your thread is "Bitcoin is becoming less and less adopted". So... You consider "number of bitcoiners" / "world_population" ratio without having the "number of bitcoiners", and still you draw a conclusion. That's really interesting. Deep. Thoughtful. Flawless logic. Science at its best. You could have put a minimum work in this crap and check the sourceforge statistics about Bitcoin-QT downloads, blockchain.info usage, whatever... But no. You "don't have the numbers", but bitcoin is less and less adopted. Congrats, bro. Post of the day. BTW: you should not have sold so many coins in 2011 and 2012. You would be much better now. Just try to control the butthurt my friend. |
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In terms of monetary supply ( the amount of coins in existence ) Bitcoin is inflationary as new coins are being created and will continue to be made for quite a few years. When block reward drops to zero, in terms of monetary supply, Bitcoin will become neutral.
In terms of monetary value Bitcoin is very deflationary. Rate of adoption has outpaced monetary inflation causing Bitcoin to deflate substantially.
This is correct, but the last sentence only partially: in terms of monetary value Bitcoin was built to be deflationary, and its long-term trend has been deflationary. Nevertheless, as everybody has seen on April, 10th, it is extremely volatile and can lose 50% of its value in a very short time. As I asked many times: what was that? The USD deflating?  Anyhow, I'm not nitpicking: its just that I see people repeating like a mantra "Bitcoin is a deflationary currency" when its not totally true (in fact as GoldenWings91 said actually is in an inflationary phase in terms of monetary supply). My impression is that when many people say "Bitcoin is a deflationary currency", they really mean "its a commodity-like asset very prone to bubbles" (or to "boom and bust cycles"), which is a different thing  |
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I know very very well FKF and Berlin (by the way, I'm going to be in FKF tomorrow), and the choice for me is clear: Berlin all the way!!!!!
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Do you think deflating bubble period/sideways period is over or do you think this will take another half year? I wish I knew  I'm not a guru, I just happen to know a bit of calculus. My calculations say that it should be over only by oktober/november (since exp growth took 3 months, and correction has always been 2.5 times longer) and a low of $60 should be approached again then since the long term exponent growth will be at that level then. With stock market it's reasonable to assume return to pre-bubble line, because stock's fundamentals are not affected by a media hype. But bitcoin is different: it's fundamentals are in network effect, so the hype should improve it. So my guess is that the line of after-bubble exponential grow should be above of the pre-bubble line. We may be already on the line and then the return to 60's won't happen. But again, it's just a guess and your is just as good as mine. In my opinion the *logic* thing would be BTC going to the '60s again before resuming the long-term uptrend, but as I said many times this market is hard to read accurately because its extremely small. Add to that the problems Gox is suffering regarding withdrawals, and there you have a big question mark. In my opinion, *if* and *when* Gox solves its problems for good, there will be dumping - especially if those problems are solved suddenly. If they pull their shit together gradually (reducing the withdrawal queue, whatever), I won't expect big crashes because of that. Will see. I can share with you my current strategy: I'm holding my coins but I have some fiat ready to buy more if there is a big dip. My main bet is that Bitcoin will consistently go up in the long term, following the historical trend, so I increased my investment funds and decreases a lot my trading funds - in fact I'm using the little I have left for trading just to try some arbitraging (and failing big time because of Gox's delays). I'm not so sure about what will happen in the short term, so I play cautious not risking coins but preparing fiat to not miss a good chance to buy cheap. |
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I respect Rampion's opinions in general, but I don't think this is a very good analysis of trend following trading. For one, he seems to have read only the first 2 or 3 pages of this thread, because he still talks about Goomboo's original 1 hour and 1 day EMA20+10 method, while in reality, this thread is, and has been for a long time, about properly backtesting algorithmic trading strategies, with vastly different parameters. He has a point about fees and slippage -- as I just felt first-hand on bitstamp yesterday. My set of indicators gave decent, profitable signals in the past days, but slippage caused it to be a loss eventually. However, that's the first time this happened to me on such a scale. Back to Rampion's post. I don't like that his whole argument is basically crafted around his initial assumption: that trend following crossover strategies aren't profitable. As a result, he jumps around between different arguments: it's too time consuming to check all that TA each day; even an algorithmic strategy requires some intuition when exectuing trades; fees&slippage eat into your profit... ...all of those points are true individually, but the conclusion he draws is not. Even taking into account higher fees & slippage, this type of trading has been proftiable, and we can show this by backtesting (*). It's everyone's choice to trade differently, and there are good reasons to simply use buy&hold, but in then end, he's somewhat disingenuous when he writes: > at the end of the day he is making an "informed gamble" as all the others TA daytraders do Maybe TA daytrading is "informed gambling". But if that's the case, then buy & hold is "uninformed gambling" (*) well, not really "show" of course since it's past performance, but backtesting is strong evidence in favor of it. It's true that I'm just criticizing the hourly 10/21 EMA crossing strategy. It's a good indicator, but IMO its not profitable if done systematically (for example with a bot) because there is too much slippage (if your trading volume is big enough), the fees are way too high and there are many false signals. At the end of the day you need to hand-pick the crossings you trade, which IMO kills the purpose of having a "system". In my book a bot should be able to use profitabily a "system" as Goombo describes it (no emotions, no intuition, etc.), but its not the case for hourly 10/21 EMA crossings. The problem is not that the system is not good, 10/21 hourly EMA have really been a good indicator, the problem is the market is too small (no depth, a lot of slippage and noise) and the fees are crazy high - nothing more, nothing less. I didn't read about any other system on this thread, but it's my mistake, its a long thread and I might not be following with enough attention. |
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Mark my words: given the current circumstances, best case scenario is first miners ship at the very end of September (last week for sure), and the vast majority of those who hoped to receive their hardware in September will receive it in October. No working ASIC prototype on September 6th.
Best case.
bullshit! Wanna bet BTC against me that first 5 units do not arrive to customers units before the last week of September? 50/50 odds and escrow? |
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Funny to see how there is such a downward pressure when Gox didn't solve yet its problems.
I always reported when the withdrawals came through fast, now I have to say I have been waiting exactly 2 weeks for a SEPA withdrawal and still nothing.
My guess is that if and when they solve their withdrawal problems there will be dumping.
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Mark my words: given the current circumstances, best case scenario is first miners ship at the very end of September (last week for sure), and the vast majority of those who hoped to receive their hardware in September will receive it in October. No working ASIC prototype on September 6th.
Best case.
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