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2441  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think we are up from here. on: April 22, 2014, 08:52:21 PM
I believe that regardless of this 490-510 back and forth, shortly (1-3 weeks) we will be up.
I don't have any fancy graphs or any thing like that.  Just watching and I think something has to give.  The FUD has not caused us to sub 450 in recent memory so its losing its ammo.

What do you all think?  Up in a few weeks?  Down or staying in the 490-510 range?

Either we stay in the 490-510 range or we start to move up. I believe the worst from China has past and the bottom is already in.

Given the state of the world, there is always the chance that some sort of confiscation a la Cyprus could send Bitcoin soaring again.



I agree with you, the economic storm that will it the western financial world and the US&UK&France unfunded liabilities will send the price well into the 3digits

Maybe we will have one or two crashes before but maybe not

What's the western financial world in your statement "the western financial world and the US&UK&France"? Mexico?

2442  Economy / Speculation / Re: How high will BTC go in the next bull run. on: April 22, 2014, 08:30:53 PM
Pessimistically I'd say $2K
Based on trendline on log chart $8K

Let's hope for the latter. It wouldn't supprise me if we do an $8K ATH and then fall back to $2K.
2443  Economy / Speculation / Re: FWD: OKCoin suspends ALL bank deposits on: April 21, 2014, 06:52:58 PM
OK if your an OP and you post a big block of text with a TL;DR; on your behalf why do you post it?

The topic subject is utter BS.

This only affects recharge codes. Recharge codes is just anonther escrowish way of injecting money into an exchange if you can't do a direct bank transfer.
As what I can read they are revising some code/method to enhance stability. You can still withdraw so you should not get goxxed.

Stop the FUD!!

Where does it say it only affects recharge codes? From what Im reading recharge codes are now the only way to deposit.

Good point I read it differently and now it's confusing me even more  Undecided. Why do they call it "suspend all bank recharge functions" and not "bank deposits"?
"bank recharge functions" and "recharge codes" seem very similar terms...
2444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Strong hands on: April 21, 2014, 06:44:16 PM

Correct the Whisk(e)y type is a giveaway for the trader type


so what that makes me if I mainly drink this one, a hodler?



PS nice stuff, I recommend getting a bottle asap if you like islay (and I wouldn't drink that last one if I were you Smiley ).

Ok the 1990 Lagavullin is 23 years old but the years don't count when bottled. It has been double matured so it is 16 years of age (correct me if i'm wrong).
This is a very good whisky that competes with more expensive whisky.

What kind of a trader:
This would make you a Hodler that has been in the game for a while and doesn't have much to lose.
You probably have "enough" bitcoins for hodling and use excesses to trade a little bit (fun money).
Since you do not have much to lose you do short term trading and try to be a "strong trader" which you are not quite at the moment.

Smiley

P.S. Lagavullin 16 year is nice but I've always wanted a distillers edition. Sherry cask whisky is nice Smiley

Correct that's 16 years old as well, the sherry casks add a little sweet smoothness to the excellent lagavullin taste. The color is darker too, not sure of naturally or caramel, but that bottle just looks sexy. You can get it at almost the same price as original 16yr, it is not an expensive whisky (sub-100).

The sherry casks give off the darker color. Port casks make it even darker but I don't like whisk(e)y from port barrels myself.
2445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Strong hands on: April 21, 2014, 06:42:02 PM
Let's take that sixth whiskey *burp*

Everyone takes one too much, once in a while. Your selection of whisky depends on your choices and your character, however:

....snip...



Correct the Whisk(e)y type is a giveaway for the trader type

"HODlers"
Use a good basic single malt whisk(e)y >10years of age or a good Tennessee/bourbon whiskey since they have to consume quite a lot to keep them from the urge of selling.

You're not getting it. Hodlers never feel an urge of selling, so they don't need whisky at all to suppress it.

People must understand that hodling is not a strategy. It's a religion. Cheesy

ya.ya.yo!

Whiskey is in the definition of hodling (hence the misspelling of holding).

To HODL:

The act of holding on to a financial trade, often a "crypto-currency", while it plummets it value. Hodling a trade indicates that an unusually high amount of personal resolve is required from the trader, due to the possibility of massive financial losses. Such resolve may be found in the form of whiskey or other strong alcohols, hence the mis-spelling.
"My bitcoins lost 45% of their value in this crash, but I'm hodling"
"Everybody just needs to hodl, we can get through this" #hodl
2446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic Chart of USD/BTC from 8/2010 to 4/2014 on: April 21, 2014, 06:32:54 PM
Questions is when does Bitcoin have a killer app that the mass will want to use ?

Its called the blockchain  Grin

True.  But once something comes along that uses the blockchain but hides the complexity from Joe Sixpack, THAT is the killer app.

What about incorporating/adapting BTC in the current banking system. Joe sixpack can then use his credit/debitcard as he is used to.
I know most people want bitcoin to far away from the current banking system. However I do see banks adapting the digital currency transfer systems (credit/debitcards) to do BTC safely by acting like an escrow.
Banks can then slowly reject/step away from government fiat and retain their usefulness. Since money is mostly digital nowadays it would be as easy as repricing products to the new currency.
2447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Little birdie !! on: April 21, 2014, 06:18:15 PM
I sold all of my bitcoins. Now what?

This was supposed to happen April 20th?

This is going to be great!

The first rule of Bitcoin is to HODL!
The second rule of Bitcoin is to HODL!
The third rule of Bitcoin is to trust NO ONE!

If you act like a sheeple then you will be had like a sheeple!!!

P.S. You have your house full of TellSell stuff too?
2448  Economy / Speculation / Re: FWD: OKCoin suspends ALL bank deposits on: April 21, 2014, 06:14:29 PM
OK if your an OP and you post a big block of text with a TL;DR; on your behalf why do you post it?

The topic subject is utter BS.

This only affects recharge codes. Recharge codes is just anonther escrowish way of injecting money into an exchange if you can't do a direct bank transfer.
As what I can read they are revising some code/method to enhance stability. You can still withdraw so you should not get goxxed.

Stop the FUD!!
2449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox's liquidation an its impact... on: April 21, 2014, 10:16:20 AM

A liquidator cannot buy BTC since his job is to pay all fiat debts. BTC  isn't a currency in many countries.
So a BTC debt possibly has a lower (or zero) priority when liquidating.
Owning a BTC in Gox would be like having bought a product and payed upfront, you simply will never receive the product or your money.

Except that this 'product' also has the same characteristics that of a currency. It's fungible, has a price value and accepted by vendors in exchange for services and goods. They (the liquidators) will still need to find a way to deal with these 'product' that's worth about a hundred million dollars at least.

The fact that BTC is not officially recognized as a currency may be the big stumbling block for the legislators. Because it's not recognized as a currency, they can't redistribute those btc back as btc, they need to liquidate those btc to fiat, and only then can compensation take place, in the form of fiat as defined in bankruptcy laws. You always get a fire sale whenever a company goes down, the liquidators would want to as quickly as possible liquidate any assets they're able to get their hands on to pay back creditors.

This whole fiasco is unprecedented where there hasn't been any legal provision written yet to tell legislators what to do with this 'product'. What follows should be interesting, how the Japanese will handle this.

+1

We have international law on a new digital product/currency. This might be a good thing for bitcoin since countries now have to acknowledge bitcoin and take a stance on bitcoin and write up legislation or agreements to handle it.

I also beleive that converting BTC to fiat might be perceived as trading or speculation an I also believe a liquidator may not speculate and thus trade.
If any converting is to be done the BTC must be auctioned to pay off all first in line fiat debts.
Then they get into the next mess and that is the price of bitcoin since many debts are in bitcoin, if any money is left they will probably have to come to an agreement with all people holding bitcoin accounts.


A liquidator cannot buy BTC since his job is to pay all fiat debts. BTC  isn't a currency in many countries.
So a BTC debt possibly has a lower (or zero) priority when liquidating.
Owning a BTC in Gox would be like having bought a product and payed upfront, you simply will never receive the product or your money.

Excluding BTC debt Gox is still solvent, they just need to close their USD 30M short. Why is the liquidator even involved? None of this makes any sense.


1) "Insolvency is the inability of a debtor to pay their debt."
2) "The state of having liabilities that are greater than assets"

It is obvious that 1 applies.
Since Gox is shut down and doesn't have a real office what assets or income do they have? A few servers, corporate car, printer, desk stapler? (most of these cost money to run)

How can you say they are still solvent?
2450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic Chart of USD/BTC from 8/2010 to 4/2014 on: April 21, 2014, 09:46:40 AM
I'm hopeful about bitcoin, but this trendline has to end sometime. The only question is when.

We have a few interesting moments comming

1. Halving of block reward.
2. End of mining (or atleast viable mining)
3. Mass adoption of bitcoin

All these moments could push bitcoin to new heights and change the trendline.
2451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox's liquidation an its impact... on: April 20, 2014, 11:13:52 PM
Seems like almost everyone assumes that the 200k btc is the property of MtGox. Not sure why though. If not they cant liquidate it.

Probably because the court seemingly authorized the statement regarding the 200k BTC.

BTW, does anyone know why the liquidator would convert the BTC to fiat? Assuming 50% of the fiat and 75% of the BTC is lost, a pro-rata payout in kind would still screw the BTC creditors harder than corresponding fiat creditors. It would actually make more sense to buy BTC for some 30% of the remaining fiat and then doing something like a 35% pro-rata distribution. Converting all to fiat equals horrible capital destruction, is that really how liquidation should be done? Maybe I'm naive, but isn't the liquidator supposed to equitably protect the interests of the creditors? Pretty much all of GOX's debt should be account balances, so why screw the holders like this?


A liquidator cannot buy BTC since his job is to pay all fiat debts. BTC  isn't a currency in many countries.
So a BTC debt possibly has a lower (or zero) priority when liquidating.
Owning a BTC in Gox would be like having bought a product and payed upfront, you simply will never receive the product or your money.
2452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic Chart of USD/BTC from 8/2010 to 4/2014 on: April 20, 2014, 10:58:45 PM
@TERA:
You actually just made a point I wanted to make in my previous post but didn't do it because there is enough FUD.
Based on your comment about trendlines I believe that we cannot make a straight line in the logarithmic chart anymore. It's more of a curve but still a nice growth in oncomming years.

This line was done with mspaint and purely illustrates my idea on a curve instead of a straight line. I didn't do any math to justify it...

2453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Little birdie !! on: April 20, 2014, 10:48:25 PM
OP will probably use a clone to stage a "TO DA M00n!!" thread so he can pat himself on the back if he was right and claim his rightful place as THE messias Tongue
2454  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic Chart of USD/BTC from 8/2010 to 4/2014 on: April 20, 2014, 10:43:14 PM
Looking at this chart and the last bubble we could dip as low as $512 or bubble as high as 4K this year.
Sounds reasonable yet 10K would have been better Smiley

Interpolating this chart into the future makes me want to see 2018 Cheesy.
I do believe it will stagnate more and this chart might be a bit positive but let's hope I'm wrong.

Crude Interpolation:
Begin 2015:  $512 to $4K
Begin 2016:  $4K to $32K
Begin 2017:  $32K to $256K
Begin 2018:  $256K to $2M 
2455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Final Warning for Long-term holders... on: April 20, 2014, 05:54:38 PM
Your comments on bankruptcy are good to follow and I believe you know more about the process than I do.

However some comments are hard to understand like "The buyers' cost of acquiring the coins will be high because they will need lawyers, accountants, transportation costs for their team etc.) This scenario will totally reset the price of BTC and there will be a totally new set of BTC pioneers and winners. All the current exchanges will be out of business and BTC will return for sale to the public at large, reputable stock exchanges. Hopefully, by this time, BTC will have a robust infrastructure and the price will stabilize and climb at a sensible rate."

Why would this reset the price of BTC?
What I would deduct is that the cheap coinz aren't really cheap due to all the overhead acquiring them. In effect there are loads of people feeding off of the process.
The buyer will have no incentive to sell the cheap coinz cheaply because they might not be as cheap if you add the overhead. This would not make the BTC price drop as hard since the buyer might need $100 to $150 per unit to break even.

Why would all the current exchanges will be out of business?
Yes if BTC goes to $1 a piece stock exchanges might not be viable anymore but IMO reading your post the BTC dump will never make BTC go below $50 to $100.
2456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Happiness doesn't last long on: April 20, 2014, 02:18:32 PM
Kudos to the guys screaming "To the moon". Price is the same as last week. And will be the same next week. And the week after.

A $50 price increase would be welcomed just after most " investors' " bones and mind have been grind down. I take it as ride on a boat in stormy weathers. Noobs that jump off at first signs of wind, deserve to drown. Those who hold on tight, and jump off just to take a bath, then prepare for more storms are the one's who prevail.

I for one won't go out of this at $10 or $10,000. I'm waiting us to reach the New World and spend it there.

Yep at least $100K you need to be set for life Smiley
2457  Economy / Speculation / Re: China: there is a special investigation team responsible for closing bank accoun on: April 20, 2014, 02:15:43 PM
Do we know why they are closing the bank accounts?
I can understand them cracking down on people using bitcoin to evade taxes, move criminal money, pay terrorists or other illegal activity. I do not believe they close accounts because they are bitcoin accosiated.

2458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Using candlesticks to determine Bitcoin direction on: April 20, 2014, 01:22:33 PM
Quote
this has worked for me in forext markets, and am sure it can work with the bitcoin

Repeat after me:

Bitcoin is NOT a stock.
Bitcoin is NOT forex.

Here is what will happen:

1. Bitcoin will get to $700
2. You will sell
3. Bitcoin will go to da moon ($2500-$5000)
4. You miss it because you sold at $700

Buy and HODL.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

+1

You sell, bitcoin goes up
You buy, bitcoin goes down

Ergo: HODL!
2459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $0.50 on: April 20, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Bitcoin wouldn't be $0.5 even if SHA-256 was completely cracked by the NSA.

Cracking SHA-256 would only allow you to insta-mine until all 21million are mined.
2460  Economy / Speculation / Re: Strong hands on: April 20, 2014, 12:28:25 AM

Based on your choice of Whisky I'd guess that one of those Bitcoin addresses with a 4-digit amount on it that have been left untouched since 2011 is yours Wink

I wish it was that many digits! Sad But I have I think couple of addresses untouched from '11. I also have some whisky, more of a collector item really, which was bottled the year I was born. Not Lagavulin, unfortunately they only started bottling later Smiley

Once a whisky is bottled it does not age. But great item non the less.
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