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2561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 02:24:32 PM
My workstation is wired up. I had to stick the cable on the sides of the wall, around it, all the way to the switch, so the cable is neatly in the corners or edges of the walls.

You're going to have to get a much longer cable (as it's not a direct line) and gently wrap it around the rooms, neatly. I also had to pick a white cable, so it blends in with the lighter colors of the walls. A bright blue, red, or black cable is going to stick out and contrast too much.

My house is all wired up. Wifi just doesnt't cut it. Though we moved the TV and associated equipment last year and the reverse WAP I set up just isn't cutting it. I'd have run a wire already but it means crawling under AC ducts in the crawlspace and that sucks.

One of the definite benefits of owning your own home.

All my desktop computers are also wired. I'm using high quality Cat 6 cable throughout the house. I specifically ordered it when we were building the house, and the installation is all inside the walls and invisible/unobtrusive. I max out to 100 MB/s (1 Gbps) anywhere in the house. I've tried Wi-Fi, and it works OK, but transfer rates and neither stable nor predictable, so I prefer a wired connection whenever I can have it. Laptops, printers and other devices of minor importance are all on Wi-Fi.

I've even used my 3D printer to print special cable corners, so that the cable is never bent below its recommended minimum bending radius.

Nothing beats the robustness, reliability, stability and security of a wired connection.

Sounds good...will be taken under consideration when building a custom "dream house".
The only question right now is: where?
Current thinking is to go bi-coastal (a combo of FL/WA-OR-CO; Caribbean/WA-OR or even FL/Canada (Vancouver?)...less likely is one house in US, one (EDIT:maybe an apartment) in Europe (London or something sunny, like Portugal).
Portugal has something good going with a golden visa, but learning Portuguese might be difficult (or not).
2562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 01:33:59 PM


 Yeah right! Next they'll be trying to convince us that we can make phone calls without a cellular service.  Fake news!


This causes generational conflict (millennials and gen Z vs boomers and X-ers):

A friend of my son got shut down when he tried to thread a colored ethernet cable across the house (from the gigabit router to his "gamestation"). lol
...now he is complaining that he is losing precious time in those super-competitive games as Wi-fi is unable to catch up.
Case in point: no dominant female in the house would allow such ethernet cable monstrosity hanging in the living room going to the second floor (or even room to room on the first), no siree  Cheesy.
2563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 02:20:58 AM
Happy Women's day (International) to WO chicks!
...if there are any  Grin
Well, I infer that "Bitcoinbunny" is probably a "she", one or two nicks more, MAYBE.
2564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 11:12:54 PM
Welp, vaccinated today guess I'll make through till the next one. Smiley

Ha ha, me too (Pfizer), not sure if they injected saline or something (completely inactive) as I did not feel anything, at least locally.
People who are vaccinated with virus vector vaccines at least report something, which may be indicative of a response (soreness, slight fever).
There is no way for me to check that they kept this stuff at -70oC. I might check for antibodies in 3-4 weeks.
2565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 10:36:38 PM
You think the Bitcoin purchase caused a 30% slide in Tesla?

So says the pink faced yelling man.

Panicked sellers don't know what the hell they are doing.
And yes marcus, the doggiest shiller is for real.
So says those who we all call The Musketeers. Grin
They will always believe whatever he says is for real.

he should buy more to make them shut their trap.

now, take a listen to this nonsense:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/50mjs7aqqgKDnvtF1y9cQX?si=DmxvjI0bTDG0s0VOBvtP5A&utm_source=copy-link
investment facility/national investment authority...oh, my!
2566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 07:13:21 PM
Did I say that GBTC turned up to be a complete crap lately, their price lagging the NAV by 10% in btc equivalent.
Some (cough-ARK-cough) are probably selling it to support their other (core) positions among investors cashing out of the fund(s).
2567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 05:47:50 PM
People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

Er, you could be mining right now with something that you bought 2 years ago for CASH.
The equipment is paid for already, now you are just stacking sats for LESS.
That, plus often neglected fact that the cost of equipment is amortized, possibly within one year (if you opened the LLC or some other entity).
Of course, you would need to declare mined btc as income; then, after you sell, that income becomes the base cost, which is subtracted from the sale proceeds (if you ever sell), generating cap gains.
2568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 03:41:49 AM
Just another kind of mining news



Brent crude oil price.
Six months ago: $42
Three months ago: $49
One month ago: $60
Now: $71.1


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1368747561150914560?s=21

a nothingburger so far..it's still below the Oct 2018 level.
2569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 02:13:09 AM
Full disclosure
-I am NOT a $BTC maximalist
-In 46 yrs trading, I've never seen a more exciting market with a similar narrative
3. My largest current single non-real estate holding is Bitcoin.
Yet, for me, BTC is just another market to be traded, like Beans or T-Notes or Sugar



Last yeak, I read a book "Unknown Market Wizards" by Jack D. Schwager
in which Peter Brandt  is one of  the best traders.
As a 46 years trading veteran especially in pattern trading, he feels this bull run may go to 200-250K in September 21th 2021.
I hope he’s right, if so HOLD is best strategy now.
if not ...



I read it too. To me, the author made it too restrictive by focusing on a consistent performance.
IMHO, a simple btc hodl would beat the heck of most of those traders in the final analysis (and no tax on profit), BUT, with gigantic drawdowns, of course.
One annoying brat in that book even made a fortune on shorting my favorite stocks-biotech.
Perhaps, a winning trade, taken biotech as whole and if you know how to do it, but very-very bad karma, imho.
2570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2021, 10:34:51 PM
Due to relativism your future already happened for some independent observer at the sufficient distance and acceleration.
You cannot re-visit your past, sure, but your past can still be observed by an independent observer, even in the future.
Not sure about visit, though, probably not, but you cannot even observe your past, while others can. Moreover, they probably can even observe your future, which did not happen for you yet.
No changing of the past, though.
Read more here about the block universe concept:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-09-02/block-universe-theory-time-past-present-future-travel/10178386
more on the future:
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p04s223f/physics-suggests-that-the-future-has-already-happened
watch from approx 3min which explains the effect of motion on "time" reference.

Doesn't sound compatible with Quantum Mechanics, which is an actual theory that can be tested.

why is that?
quantum mechanics is definitely symmetrical vs time (at least at the micro-level)
Quote
A curious property of time, which space does not have, is that it is unidirectional: particles traveling forwards in time are equivalent to antiparticles traveling back in time. Physical laws and interactions unchanged by this operation have T symmetry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symmetry_in_quantum_mechanics
here is a link to Aharonov's ideas (maybe not 100% physical consensus, though):
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.3518209
2571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2021, 08:29:00 PM
IMHO, bitcoin success as a major monetary network replacing fiat HAS ALREADY happened, the task is to make sure (with our actions) that it happened in OUR timeline/Block UNIVERSE.
2572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2021, 07:54:20 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)
https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/a-controversial-theory-claims-present-past-and-future-exist-at-the-same-time

To sketch it roughly, it proposes that:
Quote
The block universe theory says that our universe may be looked at as a giant four-dimensional block of spacetime, containing all the things that ever happen

The question about the arrow of time is fascinating.


there is no universal time. and no arrow of time. there are only causal chains of events. before a glas breaks on the floor, one had to drop it. and there is no "rewinding" that. the past is gone, not a place that one could visit.

it is however theoretically possible to "visit" the future for individuals. either survive cryogenics or invent a way to travel at 50% the speed of light. in both cases you could "wake up" in - lets say 500 years. this is consistent with causality.

"there is no universal time"
"the past is gone, not a place that one could visit. "

Due to relativism your future already happened for some independent observer at the sufficient distance and acceleration.
You cannot re-visit your past, sure, but your past can still be observed by an independent observer, even in the future.
Not sure about visit, though, probably not, but you cannot even observe your past, while others can. Moreover, they probably can even observe your future, which did not happen for you yet.
No changing of the past, though.
Read more here about the block universe concept:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-09-02/block-universe-theory-time-past-present-future-travel/10178386
more on the future:
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p04s223f/physics-suggests-that-the-future-has-already-happened
watch from approx 3min which explains the effect of motion on "time" reference.
2573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2021, 10:32:31 PM
We think a lot about those black lines, forgetting that it’s all still in our hands.


https://twitter.com/waitbutwhy/status/1367871165319049221?s=21

This is so only from the conventional point of view.
This is the alternative:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)
https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/a-controversial-theory-claims-present-past-and-future-exist-at-the-same-time

To sketch it roughly, it proposes that:
Quote
The block universe theory says that our universe may be looked at as a giant four-dimensional block of spacetime, containing all the things that ever happen

Personally, I do sometimes experience a sense of Déjà vu or the acute sense that it is wrong to do certain action (I feel it almost like a physical force).
It does not happen often, but every time it results in profound changes in the life trajectory.
Perhaps, this is the block time universe giving me a 'signal' so I don't deviate from what "suppose" to happen?
It is weird, but I got used to it and don't "fight".
2574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2021, 02:22:57 AM
Strangely enough, about a week before the Thai navy came after us a friend of mine told me that he has had friends killed who were trying to create technology to go into space.

Mainstreaming space will definitely open a can of worms and rock a few boats.

One eye opening thing I was told is...whoever controls Earth's orbit, controls access to space for all humans. And eventually the whole world.

This is a good point. Never thought about that.

Read "Expanse" or watch it on Amazon Prime-it's actually pretty good, mostly.
Obviously, outer space is in advantageous position vs Earth as earth sits in the gravitational well.
Besides, shooters in a high position almost always win-depicted in so many movies
..some say that this understanding led to a eventual win of Homo sapiens over Homo neaderthalensis.
2575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 07:45:13 PM
Fed will not raise interest rates for a simple reason that if they do so, the rates will either become inverted and everything (in the market) crashes, as correctly indicated, OR, the yield curve would maintain it's upward slope, which means that long term interest rates would go higher, but then the government would be largely insolvent (cannot afford interest payments on the debt).
Since the latter is very unlikely, the whole scenario becomes unlikely as well.
2576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 07:21:55 PM
Types of bitcoin investors/hodlers and price:

Friends and family-anything below $1

Angel investors-$1-32

Early venture investors-$32-250

Late venture-$250-1160

Various letter series (A-D)- $1160-10K

pre-IPO-$10K-28K

institutional, but pre-massive retail-28K-100K

everybody, except central banks -after 100K

central banks-after $500K


2577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 06:06:52 PM
Such a great feeling to go out shopping, come back a couple of hours later and realise that while you were out you made 400 times the money you spent shopping.

Man, next time I'll be buying a few more things...

Onwards & upwards!

HoDL.

I know the feeling when your btc balance in $ goes up and down a shitload of money and you don't think too much about it Cool

There are surely some folks who were bitcoin millionaires in the sub $10k BTC prices.. maybe even they had a couple of million in bitcoin, and then BTC prices went to $58k, and maybe even with the current correction that is approaching $45k-ish, their $1million to $2million had gone up  to nearly $6 million to $12million and then come back down to $4.5 to $9million...

What if some of those BTC HODLer folks shaved off a few hundred thousand or even a $million or more of their BTC stash (to value their wealth in dollars for a period of time), their BTC portfolio may well not even feel depleted in any kind of meaningful or material kind of way in terms of their still being prepared for more UPpity or just ready, willing and able to leave all of their cashed out fiat on the table in the event that they are not able to buy back in (and they end up "suffering" with a wee bit of a smaller BTC stash that is only worth currently at values in the $3.5 to $7 million range rather than $4.5 to $9million)... May not be a BIG deal either way for some of these folks to apparently be "suffering" from delusions about temporary fiat value, whether BTC is all of their wealth or they might have some of their wealth (or take some opportunities to put some of their wealth) in other areas as well.  AmiNOTrite?

thanks for letting us know your stash.  Smiley

what would be the combined stash size of all WO hats?

how many hats are there?
100? 200?
I would guesstimate, maybe 10-20K btc, could be even 100K btc, but that would be with high uncertainty due to highly unknown values for people who were here before 2013.
Easily $1 bil in value. BTW, when calculating average, do you take into account already taken gains (which decrease the average, obviously)?

I am not gong to be as specific as @JJG, but someone recently told me that "you can hold all you want, but considering our circumstances, I will just start spending on things that I want...[proceeded with house renovation and garden stuff]". I didn't have the heart to say "no", albeit I think that buying a brand new or recent house beats "renovation". The problem is, I have difficulty spending much beyond my salary, considering that btc might go to $5mil, eventually. I have no such qualms about the 'unmentionables', though, so it should work out.

About Liu Cixin's "Dark Forest"-that's a very good book in the trilogy, super suspenseful, but I would start with the first book-"Three body problem".
I am reading the third book ("Death's end") right now and so far it does not go as smoothly, but I am only halfway through.

2578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 05:52:02 AM


what is this, a dip for a cock?  Cheesy
2579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 06:54:22 PM
As for the lake, it's just the means to even more peace of mind and a place to enjoy my time in a peaceful healthy environment.




And you can put seastead in the middle of the lake!

er, that would be a lakestead (under a "personal" flag)  Cheesy

Reminds me of this lil pic (not by me):



Lakestead?
DIY!  Grin

a cool pic...I am imagining an underwater "Dr Evil"-like mechanism that activates ashore and extends the pier toward the house, then rapidly (relatively speaking) "snaps" back.

re money...bitcoin trains us to spend less because of it's presumably very high price in the future.
However, if and when such future arrives, people would need to have some 'wealth' classes-it is not very easy to learn how to spend properly if you grew up in a family of modest means.
You might spend in a "wrong" fashion. Listen to some Saylor's remarks about the "rich" thinking on how to do it.
2580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 05:46:19 PM
As for the lake, it's just the means to even more peace of mind and a place to enjoy my time in a peaceful healthy environment.




And you can put seastead in the middle of the lake!

er, that would be a lakestead (under a "personal" flag)  Cheesy
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