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2561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2021, 02:26:48 PM
Here are my rules:

1. Always buy to replace btc that you sold paying for things (this wouldn't work in case of a ranch or lake buying, obviously).
2. Spend only fiat or stablecoins (not btc) buying anything else.
3. Never invest more than 20% (an absolute limit) or 10% (typical) on ANY investment (that includes initial investment in btc, but does not mean selling to re-balance).
4. Never re-balance anything automatically.
5. If not DCAing, buy ONLY in a rising or stable market, not in a declining market.
6. Sell alts for 'things' with abandon (hopefully, at spikes). Easy come, easy go.
2562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2021, 01:30:25 PM
I'm still sticking to my fourth rule of crypto: "never sell everything", so I have some left.

I have some billion "Real Stack Coins" ...

What are all your other rules of crypto?

buy high, sell low?  Grin

2563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2021, 01:26:52 PM
Quote
For the first time, customers of some U.S. banks will soon be able to buy, hold and sell bitcoin through their existing accounts, according to crypto custody firm NYDIG.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/05/bitcoin-is-coming-to-hundreds-of-us-banks-says-crypto-firm-nydig-.html?__twitter_impression=true



This can be important and I hope that they will limit it to just bitcoin.


2564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2021, 06:56:17 PM
I surmise know where it (fever) will brake: on doggie add-on to coinbase (super-spike?)
I just found out that i still have some etc (after the @LFC post)....it has some value now, lol (one of the most useless forks).
I better exchange to daddy (or USDC/tether?) asap.
2565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2021, 06:32:12 PM
Meme idea...

Elon and his pet doge driving his Roadster laughing.
On dashboard, the speedometer is a doge ticker hockey stick graph labeled "ludicrous".

(probably already been done. couldn't be bothered to google)

(apologies jay. you can bat slap me)

When something goes up 40% a day, it is exhilarating, but my prior experience shows that whatever goes up 40% a day could very well decline 50% a day.
The side effect of the craziness is that we now have to endure all those chart comparisons for 2021, but it will pass.
2566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2021, 01:47:52 PM
This whole shtcoin thing is starting to have that mid 2017 feel to it. There was a major crash after it got to a crazy level, it affected BTC somewhat but alts got creamed. These pumps aren't being driven by the institutions so how far can retail really push it? remember the flippening talk from back then, I'm sure that will be starting up soon.

400 billion cap for ETH, 100 billion for binance coin, and 70 billion for doge. Seems kind of nuts especially the speed in which they got there.

yea..I wonder when and where it all ends. In coinbase lists doge soon, it might be at $1, fulfilling "the prophecy".
I am a bit amused looking at that. The other two have momentum, but it cannot last if bitcoin is not cooperating.
At least, this is my expectation. I would say that for s-tcoins, it feels more like Jan 2018 than mid 2017.
If for bitcoin it is a mid cycle correction/flat, than it will all resolve positively.

Well, if it's 2018 the cycle is over. I don't think that it is, which is why I think mid 2017 is more appropriate. Sucks either way honestly, the way a lot of these things are pumping makes the whole market look like a joke, which is not a good look.

well, if you it compare to the stock market, all internet stocks looked like a joke..that lasted from late 1997 to early 2000, quite a bit of time.
It all depends on the level of participation. Judging by some of my colleagues info sharing, quite a few now got coinbase accounts and are buying bitcoin and e-thingie (it shows), so we could be somewhere in 1998-1999 with respect to the Internet "bubble", give or take. It can continue for a while, imho. But first, there could be a dip (mildly declining coinbase price kind of predicts it).
2567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2021, 01:34:07 PM
This whole shtcoin thing is starting to have that mid 2017 feel to it. There was a major crash after it got to a crazy level, it affected BTC somewhat but alts got creamed. These pumps aren't being driven by the institutions so how far can retail really push it? remember the flippening talk from back then, I'm sure that will be starting up soon.

400 billion cap for ETH, 100 billion for binance coin, and 70 billion for doge. Seems kind of nuts especially the speed in which they got there.

yea..I wonder when and where it all ends. In coinbase lists doge soon, it might be at $1, fulfilling "the prophecy".
I am a bit amused looking at that. The other two have momentum, but it cannot last if bitcoin is not cooperating.
At least, this is my expectation. I would say that for s-tcoins, it feels more like Jan 2018 than mid 2017.
If for bitcoin it is a mid cycle correction/flat, than it will all resolve positively (for btc).
2568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2021, 10:56:50 PM
Maybe time to relax a bit:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-30/more-americans-are-considering-retirement-because-of-covid

The fear of the upcoming (even in 6-12 mo) btc bear is holding me back, otherwise, why not?
2569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2021, 10:48:36 PM
Social commentary:

Bill Gates divorces after 27 years.
Before, Bezos divorced as well, after 25 years.
Sorry, but what's the point to do it at 65?
Got tired of social causes pursuits? Bill was always super competitive.
All that focus on charity work was so not him.
2570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2021, 10:29:23 PM
I already said before that i don't like these developments.
Already, some f-kheads are starting saying the Nescape word..blah blah. Whatever.
Honestly, I blame Barry Silbert in part and his stupid fund construct (that does not allow btc sells from the fund).
As the result-a large negative premium in GBTC, wrecking havoc.

The structure of the whole market is quite similar to Jan 2018, unfortunately.
If bitcoin will not go up within the next 2wk max, shitcoins will collapse, imho, and bitcoin will decline too a bit.
Time is of the essence or we will have a meetup with 42-43K.
The idea of a double hump is still alive.
2571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2021, 08:45:52 PM
haha...some employers are trying to pull a fast one...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/my-employer-paid-me-in-crypto-it-rose-700-in-value-now-he-wants-employees-to-return-the-crypto-and-accept-dollars-11620056179

hopefully it is enough so he can just quit.
2572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2021, 05:04:47 PM
I am reading on the interwebs that Coinbase Pro is about to add Tether.
Does it mean that tether finally made it and tether-related fud would be gone?
It makes sense as with tether being available in US, they (US institutions) would have access to the entire money flow.
2573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 01, 2021, 11:14:04 PM
You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:

"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"

Yes.

Our financial system depends on perpetual growth. Since all money is debt-based, we are always creating more of it to service the interest from having borrowed it into existence. If all debts were to be paid off simultaneously, there wouldn't be enough money in the world to actually do it. So we keep creating more. This is monetary inflation, which eventually leads to price inflation unless you monetize more goods, meaning you make more things available for purchase for the newly created money, thereby balancing out supply & demand and preventing price inflation.

We are being driven towards endless consumption in order to perpetuate the status quo. We are always to be two missed paychecks from destitution so we will latch onto any false form of material happiness marketed towards our fears and frustrations.

Remember this the next time some smug douchebag pulls the "muh EnErGy cOnSumpTIon" card against Bitcoin. Deflationary crypto may yet be the biggest boon for the environment. It turns people from consumers into hodlers.

<some snip>What the Fed doesn't seem to grasp is, all the free stimmy checks or even UBI in the world won't make a lasting turn in consumer spending. Stimmies are just a temporary bump. Only wages going back up relative to *real* inflation will do that. And that just ain't gonna happen.

What the Fed is doing now (sending money directly to consumers) smacks of desperation. It's a joke.

yes, I agree, but what can they do if, according to Jeff Booth, we are living in a deflationary world?
I read "The price of tomorrow"..it's pretty compelling.
2574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 01, 2021, 03:52:17 PM
Apologies if it has already been posted:

Bitcoin vs Gold: The Great Debate with Michael Saylor and Frank Giustra

Just listened to Saylor's 5-minute opening remarks, on what is sure to be a great debate.

Grab your popcorns! Where's r0ach?

 I'm just 17 minutes into the video and I'm pretty sure Giustra just ran out to hit up the nearest bitcoin ATM.

To sum it up: not a debate, but one side providing solid moral, technical and futuristic arguments and another saying things like "watch out, they will ban you", again and again.
2575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 01, 2021, 03:40:57 AM
B. Maher says that we are full of s-t in conclusion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaJpYjO136o

, but I think that it is he who is full of it instead.

Dan Held explained it nicely:

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1387783269710655503
2576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 11:48:29 PM
Sorry, $20 bil buy is hard to believe.

Possibilities:
1. "Big brain" Ma bought it several years ago and now it is worth $20bil. 30% chance.
2. 20bil: not $, but RMB. 20% chance
3. false info. 45-49% chance
4. it is correct (if it means that they spent $20 bil). 1-5% chance

If they have $20bil worth, the up-down games could be played ad infinitum.
in addition, CCP could force Ma to "share" the spoils...or else. Note how his IPO was smashed down.
2577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 10:36:17 PM
Words of wisdom from Arthur Hayes
https://blog.bitmex.com/grow-up-or-blow-up/

Quote
The difference between a trader and a truly prescient investor is having the courage to let your winners run until you reach the logical conclusion of the investing thesis that prompted the initial investment. That requires not just tactical trading acumen, but a macro belief in a theme or regime that powers the asset’s long term returns.

TL;DR Hodler for a reason.

Yea, but coming from the fella who instituted 100X leverage, come on.
Remember those annoying Barts? Who was making them happen...it was THAT guy.
BTW, he was hastily gotten rid off when the whole thing almost blew up in the March  of 2020-what a coincidence.
If they did not go offline, it could have happened (cascading liquidations).
2578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 07:29:09 PM

The elderly tend to die...shouldn't change the housing market. They've been doing so for a while now.

If people live shorter they take up less spacetime.



how many years before people would be able to leave some intelligent 'remnant' with which we may converse?
is it even desirable?
2579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 07:16:18 PM
Greedy much?

Off for my daily walk, feeling happy and blessed for my "fuck you" wealth, my hard-earned HoDL reward, all thanks to Bitcoin.

Onwards & upwards!

HoDL.

An interesting question. I guess I am, but it is more like a game of "More".
I think that I have this only chance of a generational wealth for even extended family, so, indeed, I am pressing very hard.
I would very happy if bitcoin goes back to 70-90% or even more dominance.
2580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 07:04:54 AM
[edited out]

Actually, i am pretty sure that name calling is MUCH more off-topic than my meeker mentionings of the actual facts in the original cited text, but I digress.

If you are off topic and trying to compare and contrast shitcoins here, do you think that there is some kind of imperative to be nice about telling you to fuck off.  I was trying to be nice (within my abilities to do so), but you continue to persist to want to talk about shitcoins.

I wasn't talking ABOUT any coins, i was saying (in passing) that we are underperforming for 2-2.5mo, which is a statement of fact.
the rest is just your fake rage mixed up with some nonsense.


Under performing? you must be joking... Last time i'd check Bitcoin was 1T market cap. Is the other coins you are talking about 1T market cap or even close to that?

Just because a penny stock goes from 1c to 2c doesn't mean it is out performing stocks in the Dow Jones!...


I guess you don't know the term underperforming.
Going from 70% dominance to 48% is significantly underperfoming. I am pretty sure that "something" gained a few hundred bil in the process and it ain't pennys.
Look at the charts. Yes, it is easier to close your ears and keep saying na-na-na, like some do around here, hence the rage.
On the other hand, if you acknowledge the situation, maybe you can make a prediction as to when it reverses, possibly, which could be soon and better be.
If it continues for, say, 3 more mo, bigger money would start to actively leave and even more if it goes for a year.
Do you think "institutions" bought in because they suddenly become true believers?
They looked at the alpha and at a market cap and decided to spruce their portfolios, but if there is no alpha in relation to alternatives, they are a finicky bunch and will not stay for too long.

They can fuck off and go put their money in shitcoins if they believe that there is any there there.. .that would be nice to see a bunch of rich folks and institutions have their money go up in smoke... hahahahaha  Sure some are dumb, but I doubt that they are as dumb as you are making them out to be.. as a whole. 

In other words, good luck to you and the dumb folks who invest in shitcoins... and by the way, did anyone suggest to take that discussion somewhere else?  asking for a friend

sure, but do you have anything to say? lol
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