haha "Why do you see the speck that is in your brother’s eye, but do not notice the log that is in your own eye?"

It's all true about no or diminishing cycles, but then it is difficult to find pivots.

Maybe go by oversold conditions, but you could still be off by quite a bit.
The best policy is to not sell much for a long time. It worked for AAPL, GOOGL, even MSFT and it should work even better for bitcoin.

All schemes that include buy/sell every thousand are pitiful.
Buy in oversold conditions, sell (if you must) in overbought conditions.
That said, those situations might still carry on for extra 20-30%, so achieving an absolute top/bottom is a rarity, but try we must.


of course, because most of them are playing with "other people's money" (OPM).

Bitcoin market vs Wall Street:

2018-2021 in bitcoin is the equivalent of Internet in 1997-2000 (the early pile up, volatility in 1998 that could be compared to bitcoin's 2020 episode, recovery and fast capitalization growth).

2022 (plus maybe part of 2023, maybe not)-Wall street, having figured out that bitcoin (with or without others) is THE GAME (witness where all former head honcho regulators from SEC, OCC, etc got the new jobs), wants to push bitcoin down as much as they could similarly to Internet stocks in 2001-2002.

late 2022 (hopefully) or 2023-we start the bull run that would last a VERY long time and would go to incredible highs (for comparison see charts of GOOGL, NFLX since 2004). The underlying cause-mass adoption, of course.

TL;DR it rhymes with the Internet story-line.

interrupt of the negative CB streak...come on, buddy-boy!

that's all temporary.
with debt loads we have, the 10 year rate above 3% would be near impossible (without a wave of debt delinquencies).
Great point about Elon, though..in fact, many insiders sold quite a bit.

I also agree with SEC in this instance: if you have an established stock selling plan (and most of CEOs have it), you should NOT be able to sell much more on a whim without triggering some penalty, otherwise, it is insider trading, pure and simple.

huh?
i don't think i was too bullish, but i am not really bearish either as that twitter guy is  .
If we were lower than expected on the up, maybe we would do better than expected on the down...and I would certainly hope so.

Some analysis..may happen and may not:

With Nasdaq up above 20% and S&P 500 up well above 20% as well, historical numbers suggest a continuation of about +10% for regular stonks for 2022.

Bitcoin should be ahead maybe 20-30% as it is more volatile. 46K plus 20-30% is 55-60K by the end of 2022.

However, during a year of fast economic growth and some tightening, there is often a Spring weakness to the extent of 10-15% in S&P 500.

Nasdaq is already doing something on the down side, S&P would likely follow.


Therefore, btc might also have an initial drop to 32-36K (if we break 42K). Reaching 42K is pretty much a given, sorry.

Stopping at 32-36K would establish a higher low from where we can launch to 55-60K toward the EOY.

TL;DR A skewed V for 2022 (with faster relatively small down then up, but not ATH).

just one? is there a famous case on the interwebs?
the original bitcorn dude or stolfi? you don't mean our bastion of negativity, proudhon, who is allegedly the biggest hodler of them all (trying to play with the little fish here).

I wish i could find a decent card for MSRP instead of buying a whole PC (with that card) for a price of the card (retail).
This is seriously pissing me off.

@jjg..the problem with you is that you are wishy-washy about EVERYTHING and not willing to take a stand.
F-g percentages.
Basically, you:
1. don't want to risk anything
2. hide behind 'negotiations'
3. did not take a chance to DOUBLE your stash while having a 4:1 odds advantage.

I conclude that you are all air (or bits, whatever).
I cannot take your opinions seriously anymore, but not a surprise, really...you has always been one gigantic gas bag.

To me, it looks like Mario, but it should have been two green "eyes", of course.

Happy NY and bon appetit!

@jjg...i hope EVERYONE has seen now that you weaseled out from a straight bet with a VERY favorable odds. To me, it says a LOT.

Here is something for you to put your hat on now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H5a-l9-hqU

to me, this sounds ridiculous, but the 'weasel party' would like it.
a small question: if it goes to 2023, then why it is even a cycle?

OK, 9mo is Oct 1 3:30pm now, indeed.
Apart from this, you just want to weasel out, do you?
You don't even have the funds or the courage, so fuck off or take 4:1 odds (which you implied) like a man (whatever).

Well, it could be 0.31 from you and 1.24 btc from me if you want this.
...I am going to enjoy it (taking about half of your s-t).

no other terms and no terms about your 30-65K betting bullshit.
take the odds in your favor or stfu.

Nothing a new "clown" act cannot fix.

@jjg "A false irrelevant and unimportant indicator that you would like to cause to be relevant, when it no doesn't mean shit."

I think it is quite important, and if you think that it doesn't than you are delusional. To go in one year from 73% to 40% is not nothing.
In actuality, i was actually cheering it UP, not down and you got enraged by a mere mentioning of the word. What's wrong with you?

@jjg Regarding our bet-I would like to call your bullshit on this.

Here are my odds and conditions:

Since you give 25% to above 200K, I would bet 0.4 btc that it won't exceed 200K until 1pm EST Sept 1, 2022 and YOU would bet 0.1 btc that btc would be above 200K at some point between now and the date mentioned here earlier.
4:1 odds in YOUR favor.
I don't care betting on exceeding 30-65K range and I would not accept any other conditions.

uie-pooie says what?

We are closing 2021 at exactly 40% in dominance with another coin at 20%.
I just wish we pop back up at least to 50%.
I would drink to that as it is the minimal i would expect from btc as far as being the dominant cryptocurrency out there.

Happy upcoming New year!

I feel kind of sad about BW not hitting that 100, but it is what it is.

@jjg...at least cite right..and stop making up stuff.

"price prediction models are broken" != "bitcoin is broken"

...it simply means that there ain't a formula that can predict the price at certain time in the future, but, personally, I think that we would be in a $30K-$65K situation for the next 12 mo.
How? we can stay flat at 42-50K or continue down until 30-31K, then rebound back to 60-62K and continue oscillating.
$20K-200K range covers pretty much ALL possibilities, but the tighter range above (30-65K) also looks right to me.

One thing is 99% sure-there will be NO blow off tops (above 200K) in the next 1-9mo.
Wanna bet something? How about those 0.31 btc of yours?

The cause: product placement and trying to reach the widest audience using the lowest common denominator: ethnicity.
However, when it does not happen, remember all complains about the Golden Globes.
In short-we get what the populace as a whole deserves.

In partial defense of this: in alien movies they always say a first couple of phrases in their "native" tongue before switching to perfect (or accented) English.
People accept this suspension of disbelief because it is easier this way.
Similarly, it is easier for them to provide politically correct casting than to be subjected to possible lawsuits later on.

EDIT: a funny thing about Expanse...star ship engines keep making roaring sounds in the vacuum of space...and, strangely enough, it feels right when you watch it, but complete bs, of course.

that's funny.